Is the End of Physical Media Inevitable? - Page 19 - AVS Forum
View Poll Results: Is the End of Physical Media Inevitable?
Yes, physical media will quickly disappear altogether 24 2.22%
Yes, physical media will slowly disappear altogether 203 18.74%
No, new physical formats will continue to be developed 378 34.90%
No, but physical media will become a niche market for enthusiasts 478 44.14%
Voters: 1083. You may not vote on this poll

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Community News & Polls > Is the End of Physical Media Inevitable?
TowerGrove's Avatar TowerGrove 09:27 PM 04-23-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

ecommerce bill of rights will never happen. Both political parties are in the hip pocket of the media lobby. Something major (like Amazon, Apple going bust and leaving everyone high and dry) for that to happen. Plenty of smaller fry went bust in the digital audio arms race (Real Networks) and no one got refunds.

The E commerce bill of rights WILL happen. My friend, Neighbor and congressman is getting ready to propose such an action. He says it has broad support. We shall see.

imagic's Avatar imagic 09:31 PM 04-23-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by TowerGrove View Post


The E commerce bill of rights WILL happen. My friend, Neighbor and congressman is getting ready to propose such an action. He says it has broad support. We shall see.

Background checks on firearms purchases had broad support. I believe it was 90%, right? But, I am always going to be an optimist.


jmpage2's Avatar jmpage2 10:28 PM 04-23-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post

Background checks on firearms purchases had broad support. I believe it was 90%, right? But, I am always going to be an optimist.

Exactly. Congress doesn't do things that look out for their constituents. Congress does things that look out for Congress and their most important financial contributors.

http://boingboing.net/2013/04/07/lessigs-ted-talk-on-fighting.html

I hate to be a pessimist but things aren't the way they used to be. As pointed out, the overwhelming majority of Americans are for universal comprehensive background checks, and that was killed by the NRA, which makes up only 3% of Americans but has very deep pockets.
gregmasciola's Avatar gregmasciola 12:27 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabroniman View Post

I have little interest in physical media completely being replaced by streaming, but I can see the usefulness of streaming in some applications. The fact is, no streaming is equal to Blu-ray in terms of picture and uncompressed, 7.1 audio quality. Streaming, like cloud computing, relies on the Internet: no Internet, no media. That is unacceptable. I like my movie collection(hoard) for my home theater, but I like Netflix for long days on the set to ease the boredom. Long live physical media!!

I couldn't agree more. I like my Netflix streaming service, but like many have said, the content could become unavailable one day, or your internet connection could go out, making it impossible to watch anything if you don't have it physically. For me, my Netflix streaming is a replacement for Cable service. They have lots of TV shows available. Sometimes I'll watch a movie on it, and guess what? If I like it enough, I go and buy it on DVD or Blu-Ray. Same with shows. If I think it's good enough, I'll want my own physical copy.
Natja-ss-1334's Avatar Natja-ss-1334 02:50 AM 04-24-2013
Hey a lot of people still collect vinyl don't they? There are some exceptions. I mean who plays cassettes and 8-tracks anymore? Also now that HD will transform into something that has 4x the resolution, I wonder if the industry will come up with some sort of disc that can hold a three plus hour movie with 4x the resolution of current 1080p HD. If they can't do it then that could be the death of physical media right there, I mean over a period of time. 15 years from now someone will show up at my house and with a giggle say "Woah man, you still have Bluyray discs?"
comfynumb's Avatar comfynumb 04:29 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Exactly. Congress doesn't do things that look out for their constituents. Congress does things that look out for Congress and their most important financial contributors.

http://boingboing.net/2013/04/07/lessigs-ted-talk-on-fighting.html

I hate to be a pessimist but things aren't the way they used to be. As pointed out, the overwhelming majority of Americans are for universal comprehensive background checks, and that was killed by the NRA, which makes up only 3% of Americans but has very deep pockets.



Actually it was killed by some who jumped ship. But if you have any facts that money exchanged hands as your implying I'd like to see them. But yeah there should be universal background checks and things definitely are not like they used to be.
TowerGrove's Avatar TowerGrove 05:12 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Exactly. Congress doesn't do things that look out for their constituents. Congress does things that look out for Congress and their most important financial contributors.

http://boingboing.net/2013/04/07/lessigs-ted-talk-on-fighting.html

I hate to be a pessimist but things aren't the way they used to be. As pointed out, the overwhelming majority of Americans are for universal comprehensive background checks, and that was killed by the NRA, which makes up only 3% of Americans but has very deep pockets.
Again... We shall see. ;-)
TowerGrove's Avatar TowerGrove 05:16 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by gregmasciola View Post

I couldn't agree more. I like my Netflix streaming service, but like many have said, the content could become unavailable one day, or your internet connection could go out, making it impossible to watch anything if you don't have it physically. For me, my Netflix streaming is a replacement for Cable service. They have lots of TV shows available. Sometimes I'll watch a movie on it, and guess what? If I like it enough, I go and buy it on DVD or Blu-Ray. Same with shows. If I think it's good enough, I'll want my own physical copy.

Many people forget that Folks are replacing their cable service with services like Netflix.
fritzi93's Avatar fritzi93 06:31 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post

Background checks on firearms purchases had broad support. I believe it was 90%, right? But, I am always going to be an optimist.

Tried to buy a gun from an FFL holder (licensed firearms dealer) in the last ~20 years? Then you've undergone a background check (instant check) for felonies and/or mental incompetence. A hit disqualifies you. Private sales are another matter.
David Susilo's Avatar David Susilo 06:33 AM 04-24-2013
That is correct. Netflix is replacing cable companies, not physical media.
imagic's Avatar imagic 06:47 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by TowerGrove View Post


Many people forget that Folks are replacing their cable service with services like Netflix.

The statistic is pretty harsh, 25% of new Netflix subscribers wind up dumping their cable package. But, people are going to start to upgrade their broadband connection when they start utilizing their Netflix five simultaneous stream plan. Hopefully the cable companies will be on top of that trend—with some sort of unlimited data, 50 Mbps plan.


robnix's Avatar robnix 07:11 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tesla1856 View Post

I've never had a pressed or manufactured CD go bad.

I had a perfect, pristine (DVD9 factory pressed dual-layer ... I think one of the first ones) DVD of Apollo13 go bad just sitting in the case. Contacted the studio and they replaced it for free. They were very helpful and were interested to see the old pressed one because it had apparently degraded over time (about 10 years).

I'm still very-much pro physical media.

I have two Blurays that went bad. Visually both appear to have zero physical defects yet not one of my bluray players will play them. I'll see about contacting the studios to see what happens.
imagic's Avatar imagic 07:18 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by robnix View Post


I have two Blurays that went bad. Visually both appear to have zero physical defects yet not one of my bluray players will play them. I'll see about contacting the studios to see what happens.

Flash memory, like what is found in thumb drives, is a far better medium for archiving than optical disc. With an optical disk, a manufacturing defect might take a few years to manifest. With flash memory, once the data is verified if you put it away it will simply be there.

 

If physical media persists in the future, it's hard to imagine that it would be anything other than non-volatile memory.


design1stcode2nd's Avatar design1stcode2nd 08:56 AM 04-24-2013
I've never really streamed anything as I had DSL but about 6 months ago I finally got cable so now I have the bandwidth to do it. Can you actually find all of the content on say directv including local sports on Netflix the same time it's showing live? For instance I'll be watching the first round of the NFL draft tomorrow in the theater. Is that going to be on Netflix?

If not it really is just something I could see being useful for the kids or if I just wanted to catch up on a TV series on my TV. The only time I have ever watched a movie on my ipad was when I was on an airplane. I built a theater with 7.1 I want the highest quality video and audio possible. I can't imagine streaming a movie with 5 people over and it pauses with "buffering"...
FSense's Avatar FSense 09:11 AM 04-24-2013
We're quickly phasing out use of DVDs here and moving completely to streaming after our experiences with Blu-Ray discs. From the time we insert a DVD to the point where we can actually start watching a movie, at least 5 minutes pass where we're subjected to commercials, previews, etc. that we have no interest in. You can sometimes skip the previews, but only by skipping forward through them with the remote. The format doesn't allow us to just go to the menu and start the movie. Sony may have thought that was a great idea, but as users, we reject the process.
jmpage2's Avatar jmpage2 09:22 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post

Flash memory, like what is found in thumb drives, is a far better medium for archiving than optical disc. With an optical disk, a manufacturing defect might take a few years to manifest. With flash memory, once the data is verified if you put it away it will simply be there.

If physical media persists in the future, it's hard to imagine that it would be anything other than non-volatile memory.

That's not entirely accurate either. Flash drives are susceptible to ESD and other things that can render them inoperable. Optical discs, if pressed properly are "inert" in the sense that they are impervious to magnetic fields, ESD and other things that can cause problems. The only reason a BD would stop playing after some period of time would be due to an initial defect in the manufacturing such as incorrect application of the spin coat.
jmpage2's Avatar jmpage2 09:23 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by FSense View Post

We're quickly phasing out use of DVDs here and moving completely to streaming after our experiences with Blu-Ray discs. From the time we insert a DVD to the point where we can actually start watching a movie, at least 5 minutes pass where we're subjected to commercials, previews, etc. that we have no interest in. You can sometimes skip the previews, but only by skipping forward through them with the remote. The format doesn't allow us to just go to the menu and start the movie. Sony may have thought that was a great idea, but as users, we reject the process.

It's only a matter of time before digital downloads and streams have those previews and trailers too. I rip my movies from BD or DVD to MKV and I don't have to sit through previews and trailers either.
jmpage2's Avatar jmpage2 09:31 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Susilo View Post

That is correct. Netflix is replacing cable companies, not physical media.

Netflix couldn't exist without broadband network providers, who are often Cable companies. Anyone who thinks that the cable co's will go quietly into the night, handing their business to Netflix have another thing coming. It's like Netflix is Ford and the cable companies own the highways.
Nebiroth's Avatar Nebiroth 09:31 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Natja-ss-1334 View Post

Hey a lot of people still collect vinyl don't they? There are some exceptions. I mean who plays cassettes and 8-tracks anymore? Also now that HD will transform into something that has 4x the resolution, I wonder if the industry will come up with some sort of disc that can hold a three plus hour movie with 4x the resolution of current 1080p HD. If they can't do it then that could be the death of physical media right there, I mean over a period of time. 15 years from now someone will show up at my house and with a giggle say "Woah man, you still have Bluyray discs?"

Actually it's probably going to be easier to get 4k onto optical disc than anywhere else. BluRay can be further developed to have multiple layers - between four and ten layers are possible which increases the capacity enormously. We may also expect furthe rimprovements in compression.

At present, BluRay is the best way to view high-definition because broadcast and streaming always have some sort of compromise to cut down on the data requirements.

But 4k is a long, long way off. It would mean yet another upgrade iteration for televisions, with each one getting more expensive. And it is often said that many people can't tell the difference between SD and HD now (or more likely, simply do not care about it that much)
robnix's Avatar robnix 09:40 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

It's only a matter of time before digital downloads and streams have those previews and trailers too. I rip my movies from BD or DVD to MKV and I don't have to sit through previews and trailers either.

Just like the way Youtube started inserting ads before certain videos in 2007. It's going to happen and it will be harder to skip.
Nebiroth's Avatar Nebiroth 10:03 AM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post

Flash memory, like what is found in thumb drives, is a far better medium for archiving than optical disc. With an optical disk, a manufacturing defect might take a few years to manifest. With flash memory, once the data is verified if you put it away it will simply be there.

If physical media persists in the future, it's hard to imagine that it would be anything other than non-volatile memory.

Untrue. Flash memory has a limited period of data retention - i.e. how long it will hold information when not under charge, in other words, if you wrote to it and then stuck it in a cupbroard. Whilst this period is quoted between five and ten years by manufacturers a lot depends on the quality of the memory. Genrally, the cheaper, the shorter.

Moreover, flash memory is very sensitive to environment, and can be affected by things like damp which causes corrosion and shorts.

Optical media are regarded as extremely stable over the long term and are the first choice for archival purposes, because they have high capacity, are cheap, resistant to environmental factors and have extremely long projected lifespans.

There is discussion to be had about writeable optical media, because they are comprised of dyes which are inherently unstable, since they must have the property of changing state (otherwise, you couldn't write to them). Even so, the projected lifespans are very long. Most burned DVD's for example fail because many people buy very cheap and inferior products (which are often rebranded and sold under 'reliable' brand names) or they are kept incorrectly (for example, exposing a DVDR to a good dose of sunlight)

Pressed DVD (and CD) are regarded as the most stable of all because they are basically a layer of inert metal with pits in it (representing the 0'1 and 1's of the data) and are sealed inside impermeable plastic, these plastics having been around for a long time and their properties being well understood.

If a DVD fails then it is almost always down to a manufacture error (such as the use of incorrect materials) or bad storage (such as DVD cases that cause the user to have to bend the disc to get it out, which in the long term causes the bonded layers to separate, this delamination finally causes exposure of the metal layer which oxidises and becomes unreadable)

Most manufacture errors show up relatively quickly, because the problems are chemical reactions which take days or months - not years. An example of this would be the DVD's from Anchor Bay that turned a deep bronze colour about six months after manufacture. The problem was the manufacturer used an incorrect laqcuer which chemically reacted with the metal data layer - which is made of aluminium - causing it to oxidise.

DVD's are far, far more resistant to "rot" than LaserDiscs. LD's were made using acrylic plastics which have excellent optical properties - this was necessary at the time because the lasers in players required it and error correction was much poorer. But acrylics are relatively soft and subject to moisture penetration. It was usually moisture penetrating to the data layer that caused "rot" - black spot sof oxidisation.

DVD's are made of polycarbonate plastics. Modern in-player lasers are quite happy with it;s slightly inferior optical quality and error correction is now much better. Polycarbonates are at least ten times more resistant to moisture than acrylics - DVD's have been immersed in water for many months without problems.

Properly manufactured and stored, a pressed DVD should have a lifespan that is considerably longer than it's owner's. In fact, the most likely fate of DVD's is that many decades from now there simply won;t be devices to read them. Although these are so trivially easy to make, it will certainly be possible to recover the data - even if you won;t actually be able to buy a domestic device to do it. Same way you just can;t buy a gramaphone to play old wax cylinders in the stores - but they can be made.
imagic's Avatar imagic 10:14 AM 04-24-2013
Great post, nebiroth. However, I figure in the future instead of there being no device that can read a disc, there will be devices that can scan the disk without even spinning it. Some kind of universal optical disk scanner.
lyubomir's Avatar lyubomir 12:06 PM 04-24-2013
No, I don't think so. HD, 4HD, 8HD content is knocking at our doors. Hard copies will always be a preferrable for end users. And one more thing - how you'll get autograph from your favorite actor/musician/artist? Signature in your "cloud" internet storage smile.gif
FSense's Avatar FSense 01:03 PM 04-24-2013
Media comes and goes. The longest lasting thus far is the 78 RPM record - I have some that are 117 years old and they still play just fine. The player is 101 years old and I can still buy parts for it.
Nebiroth's Avatar Nebiroth 02:05 PM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post

Great post, nebiroth. However, I figure in the future instead of there being no device that can read a disc, there will be devices that can scan the disk without even spinning it. Some kind of universal optical disk scanner.

Indeed. As I said, after a long time DVD's will simply become obsolete - kind of like floppy discs. There will be no domestic devices like a DVD player available since there would be insufficient sales to drive it. By that time people will have either double-dipped their collections and have all that they previously owned in whatever 'format' prevailed by then, or possibly have converted their DVD's years ago to home servers or something like that. Kind of like people are scanning their old film slides and stuff. But since readers are trivially easy to make and there is and will be an immense legacy of DVD's, you will be able to get the data off for probably a century or more.

The idea of dragging a needle over a bumpy piece of plastic is an almost comically crude data retrieval method by modern standards, but it is still easy to get "readers", or parts to repair old ones, and in fact, as a niche market records are still thriving. The world population is big enough to make a small percentage of enthusiasts a large enough group to make products commercially viable.
ROMEO 1's Avatar ROMEO 1 02:28 PM 04-24-2013
Great thread, I haven't replied to a thread here in a couple of years. I think we are a while off from completely having the physical media considered dead. Streaming is good but it is dependent on internet provider. I still think that Blu-Ray is the best and direct way to get your HD source, you can upload your movie to a portable device and not lose quality and finally you have it available at your fingertips. That is an important reason why I will keep my physical media. I still have close to 1,000 LPs at my fingertips.cool.gif
stevet777's Avatar stevet777 02:43 PM 04-24-2013
I have to laugh when I read discussions about streaming HD video versus physical media. I live in a suburb of one of the 10 largest cities in America, and the HIGHEST bandwidth available is 3Mbps. Effective rate of about 2.5Mbps. I believe that ranks me in the bottom 3% of global internet speeds. And it means that streaming HD anything is just as much of a reality as strapping on my jetpack to take a quick flight to the grocery store. I think I currently run at something like 2 hours to download one hour of HD video.

And it's not like higher bandwidth is coming just around the corner. We're probably looking at years here before we even see anything about 6Mbps. And when you look at the US as a whole versus other industrialized countries, aren't we ranked somewhere like 30th in terms of broadband speeds? It's a complete and utter joke. And in this age of austerity, that's not going to improve much on a national scale anytime soon either.
BiggAW's Avatar BiggAW 03:35 PM 04-24-2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post

I did not say that 4K video on a tablet served a useful purpose, I only said it will exist soon enough.

As for your contention that anything beyond 480p on a tablet is a waste... all I can say is "be serious." Have you even tried what you are claiming to be true? 480p is acceptable for a phone and that's about it. On an iPad, the difference between 480p and 720p is glaringly obvious. It's quite easy to prove, too. Don't make me do it!tongue.gif


A lot of people consider relaxing in a recliner, or in bed with a tablet to be a great way to consume video. The iPad's display looks great and with a good pair of headphones the whole experience can be quite satisfying.

That's a terrible way to watch video. Maybe you could see some difference from 480p to 720p, definitely not between 720p and 1080p, and even 720p is a tough justification on a tablet. I wouldn't doubt seeing ridiculous things like 4K on a tablet, however.
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Susilo View Post

Imagic, there is no point of having any type of discussion with certain individuals here. Just report the individual(s) to moderator for trolling.

Good luck. It's hard to report someone for doing something that they're not doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Highjinx View Post

This consumer, given the option of download or a disk purchase, is quite willing to pay the premium for the disk and its 'ownership' privileges............however given the option of speedy download and storage on home based secure server for future use, will gladly opt for the download option, quality being the same.

Most people, myself included, don't want to store content. Because of the lack of good streaming options, and Comcast's looming bandwidth caps, I'm currently on an all-out run to hoard about 5TB of mkv files acquired from various sources, including a large pull that a friend did off of our college's hub before we graduated, and a 1TB+ TPB spree that I went on. I'd love to have a legitimate service that just has all that available for streaming and not have to worry about storing it all. That was what Netflix was supposed to be, until they were undermined by the studios and now don't have much of anything to stream.
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Susilo View Post

That is correct. Netflix is replacing cable companies, not physical media.

Netflix is yet another service out there, but it doesn't have the breadth of content to legitimately replace anything. It's just another alternative service.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevet777 View Post

I have to laugh when I read discussions about streaming HD video versus physical media. I live in a suburb of one of the 10 largest cities in America, and the HIGHEST bandwidth available is 3Mbps. Effective rate of about 2.5Mbps. I believe that ranks me in the bottom 3% of global internet speeds. And it means that streaming HD anything is just as much of a reality as strapping on my jetpack to take a quick flight to the grocery store. I think I currently run at something like 2 hours to download one hour of HD video.

And it's not like higher bandwidth is coming just around the corner. We're probably looking at years here before we even see anything about 6Mbps. And when you look at the US as a whole versus other industrialized countries, aren't we ranked somewhere like 30th in terms of broadband speeds? It's a complete and utter joke. And in this age of austerity, that's not going to improve much on a national scale anytime soon either.

Where on earth do you live? I'm not even near a major city, and I can get DSL (3mbps), or two cable companies that can each do over 10mbps. And some areas have U-Verse too.
lswiger's Avatar lswiger 03:57 PM 04-24-2013
As bandwidth becomes available and storage becomes vast and affordable in a cloud environment media will slowly disappear but there will be collectors just like those who like vinal records. I remember making a joke about a 1 gig disk when we were saving data on paper tape in the military and the biggest disk was 1.2meg costing thousands for a reader and paying IBM a fortune to format them!
PCBONEZ's Avatar PCBONEZ 04:18 PM 04-24-2013
Rather doubt that Microsoft is going to bow out of the (brick and mortar) Retail market for selling their OS to do everything on-line.
I also can't see them selling the OS on actual hard drives.
Nor can I see them bowing out of the markets in Third World countries where the infrastructure of the internet still doesn't support high-speed connections.
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