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Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-27-2015, 03:08 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,187
Posted By rogo
Disagree. The biggest problem is they can't...

Disagree.

The biggest problem is they can't get reasonable throughput @ yield for SMS-based manufacturing. 100% yields on perfect backplanes will never change physics.
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-26-2015, 12:31 AM
Replies: 895
Views: 32,912
Posted By rogo
It's very rare for me to disagree with an imagic...

It's very rare for me to disagree with an imagic post so thoroughly. This is one of those times.

It's absolutely true that more grey steps are a benefit of HDR. But were it not for the higher...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-24-2015, 11:31 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 959
Posted By rogo
I loathe quoting myself, but in this case there's...

I loathe quoting myself, but in this case there's a good cause!

I communicated with Robert at VE, who reports some similar issues of fluctuations, uniformity changes, etc. in the early part of the...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-24-2015, 11:25 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 564
Posted By rogo
Well, it's obviously not 2016 where we'll be...

Well, it's obviously not 2016 where we'll be lucky to see $15,000.

It certainly doesn't feel like 2017 where we'll be lucky to see $10,000.

It's pretty unlikely for 2018 where we'll be lucky to...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-23-2015, 10:50 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 959
Posted By rogo
Critical insight there. Because, honestly,...

Critical insight there. Because, honestly, without some kind of control group, how could they?


Agreed, it's logically a harmless act.



Unless he was instrumenting the panel regularly...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-22-2015, 11:22 PM
Replies: 895
Views: 32,912
Posted By rogo
I very much doubt the number of cores in the CPU...

I very much doubt the number of cores in the CPU has anything to do with "input lag". The video processing is almost certainly not handled by a general purpose CPU, unless something radical has...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-19-2015, 11:15 PM
Replies: 1,693
Views: 82,937
Posted By rogo
You can make the "high end market" many different...

You can make the "high end market" many different sizes depending on where you clip the price band.

I think LG was more or less clipping it at the top 2%, which is how they get 4 million total...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-16-2015, 10:15 PM
Replies: 895
Views: 32,912
Posted By rogo
As much as I'm skeptical Sony will be in the TV...

As much as I'm skeptical Sony will be in the TV business 5 years from now, it's nearly impossible to contemplate a scenario where Panasonic is -- at least outside of Japan.

There is no particular...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-15-2015, 10:42 PM
Replies: 895
Views: 32,912
Posted By rogo
HDR and wide color gamut require content that...

HDR and wide color gamut require content that supports it. That doesn't exist and will barely exist.

I see that as an utterly false competitor for OLED.

That said, I've long harped on the...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-15-2015, 01:45 PM
Replies: 895
Views: 32,912
Posted By rogo
My three cents (unlikely worth much more): ...

My three cents (unlikely worth much more):

Ken is one of the more discerning members of the AVS community. He makes at least one irrefutable point -- freeze frames are not especially favorable on...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-15-2015, 01:21 PM
Replies: 11,930
Views: 1,146,061
Posted By rogo
I think this is directionally correct, but my...

I think this is directionally correct, but my suspicion is 2015 OLEDs (the ones that Apple would actually qualify for iPhone 7 in 2016) aren't going to have a power advantage. That said, the ones...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-14-2015, 12:53 PM
Replies: 11,930
Views: 1,146,061
Posted By rogo
It's pretty noteworthy that Ive backhanded...

It's pretty noteworthy that Ive backhanded insulted LCD by the way. That's after Cook made 3-4 notable public comments -- although not a single one anytime recently -- trashing OLED.

Apple isn't...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-13-2015, 07:18 PM
Replies: 11,930
Views: 1,146,061
Posted By rogo
I'm struggling to understand any scenario under...

I'm struggling to understand any scenario under which 70,000 TVs could be sold in Q1. I realize they technically have the capacity from the old line, but they essentially have had no production from...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-08-2015, 04:01 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 5,358
Posted By rogo
Not really. Debt gets paid first.. But see below....

Not really. Debt gets paid first.. But see below.



Yes, this all seems plausible/reasonable (again, with the admission of personal ignorance here on the laws). Sharp has hit another stumble...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-08-2015, 03:54 PM
Replies: 11,930
Views: 1,146,061
Posted By rogo
I think that's a far harder marketing challenge...

I think that's a far harder marketing challenge than I suspect many others do.

It's not like LG is going to capture a majority of the top-end segment with its incredibly thin selection and high...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-07-2015, 11:00 AM
Replies: 115
Views: 5,358
Posted By rogo
That's actually not a bad idea. The fact that...

That's actually not a bad idea. The fact that Sony has partly spun off the TV division -- it's basically a "wholly owned" at this point, ready to be set free if/when needed -- makes this even more...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-07-2015, 10:50 AM
Replies: 11,930
Views: 1,146,061
Posted By rogo
Totally reasonable and I concur. It's much more...

Totally reasonable and I concur. It's much more relevant what occurs in 2015 than what happened last year anyway. While I still doubt last year was >50K, I'm far, far more interested in how this year...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-06-2015, 12:15 AM
Replies: 115
Views: 5,358
Posted By rogo
Sharp has no path to pay off its debt short of...

Sharp has no path to pay off its debt short of bankruptcy and the discharging of much of what it owes.

I'm no expert on Japanese bankruptcy law, but if it's anything like U.S. law, there will be a...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-06-2015, 12:11 AM
Replies: 11,930
Views: 1,146,061
Posted By rogo
I'm with you on being pretty uncertain, but the...

I'm with you on being pretty uncertain, but the 77K number feels entirely absurd to me.

It would represent a gigantic market share of TVs in the $3000+ ballpark and, well, the vast majority of...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   03-01-2015, 01:30 PM
Replies: 1,693
Views: 82,937
Posted By rogo
I can't speak too much to pricing as I'm not sure...

I can't speak too much to pricing as I'm not sure we're comparing apples to oranges on vendors here, but the market for $6000 TVs vs. $8000 TVs is on the order of 5-10x larger.
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   02-28-2015, 10:27 AM
Replies: 115
Views: 5,358
Posted By rogo
The cute toy car also has a limit of 25 mph....

The cute toy car also has a limit of 25 mph. That, under federal law, classifies as it a different type of vehicle where certain kinds of crashworthiness and many kinds of safety features are not...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   02-27-2015, 06:10 PM
Replies: 1,693
Views: 82,937
Posted By rogo
Of course, this pricing is no death knell. It...

Of course, this pricing is no death knell. It does suggest, however, a much, much lower volume target for 2015 than we'd be led to believe/hoping for.

I don't for a second buy into the theory that...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   02-25-2015, 11:19 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 1,837
Posted By rogo
Whatever most people think the market is for...

Whatever most people think the market is for 65-inch $6000 TVs, I suggest your guesstimate is likely significantly above the actual market size.

Even in the case of Samsung, the flat one at $4000...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   02-21-2015, 01:47 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 5,358
Posted By rogo
That's actually not a very accurate picture. You...

That's actually not a very accurate picture. You can state it over and over if you'd like, but it's nowhere near that simple.

There are many kinds of collisions/accidents. The least harmful are...
Forum: OLED Technology and Flat Panels General   02-19-2015, 06:16 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 5,358
Posted By rogo
Again, that's a prototype. It's capped at 25mph...

Again, that's a prototype. It's capped at 25mph so it can avoid having modern safety features installed. It can't reasonably be used as an urban taxi even if it were legally allowed to be one. That...
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