Originally Posted by LarryChanin
I'm not sure I completely follow your point, other than "Take any "announcement" with a grain of salt."
As you state, DVD player sales were not constrained by the need to purchase a standard definition TV. However, Blu-ray player sales have been constrained by the factors you mentioned, AND
the need to purchase an HDTV.
How does the fact that Blu-ray faces greater impediments to adoption than DVD players, invalidate the argument that Blu-ray sales is still driven by HDTV sales? An HDTV is still a prerequisite to using a Blu-ray player.
I don't buy the argument people wont notice a difference on a smaller TV. You will still see a difference at 27". Alot of people sit closer to a smaller TV. I have a 92" screen and definitely see a difference, but I also see a noticeable difference on my 20" LCD monitor.
Aside from that. People will definitely "see" a difference using bluray on a 480i TV. Placebo effect goes a long way. When I first got my HD DVD player, I thought HD was night and day better.... until I put in a newer SD DVD and realized how bad my old Phillips DVP642/37 was out component compared to the HDM player using the same media.
I think we can all agree that even we suffer from this placebo affect. It took me a long time to realize that my analog ins sounded better from my HD HTPC than using the optical in. I was just so used to seeing Dolby Digital or DTS show up - big psychological factor.
That aside, J6P is more likely to spend his $600-700 on an HDTV than $400 on a BR player.
I think most of us did the same thing. I got my HD projector with no intention of going with HDM for about 2-3 years. I just wanted better resolution as I use a larger screen. People warned that is how is starts. 6 months later, I seriously started looking for HD. I added HD OTA at 7 months. at 8 months I picked up an HD player to see the difference. At 10 months, I was hooked and spent about $400 putting upgrades into my HTPC to make it HD capable. This month I spent another $130 on a BR drive for it. Plus not to mention all the money I blew on cheap HD DVD because they were cheap - Why did I buy Rundown for 7.5?
Alot of people go through that process. But pricing plays a big part of that. I dont' know that I would have blown all than money on HD upgrades if I hadn't "tried out" HDM without a $150 HD DVD player.
I keep saying the $200 price point is key because that is when the avalanche of HD DVD buyers started going in. Also most DVD players are in the $100-140 range with the exception being high end Oppos... but J6P has never heard of Oppo unfortunately.. heck most J6Ps have never heard of Onkyo.
At $200, it starts to fall into that maybe I will give it a try product. I am in sales and have a good feel for pricing.
But regardless, HDTV sales are the true key. A good number of people will upgrade to HDM when or within a year of getting an HDTV. A good number wont, but many of those people wont even if the player drops to $100. Word of mouth is the biggest seller of these products. I think in the end, it was the word of mouth that did in Beta as more people bought it into VHS the first number of years and not so much advertising or even necessarily pricing (One of the key drivers of VHS was its longer recording time).