Discussion on the 60%/9% BluRay awareness/penetration article on the home page - Page 8

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Have you checked the size of the file for I Am Legend yet?

It is 12GB.

It also got a very high PQ rating.

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

This is why both formats were equal in PQ even though BD-50 had 2x the capacity of HD DVD - 30.

Originally Posted by bplewis24

Not everywhere.

Brandon

Originally Posted by LarryChanin

Hi,

Now with FiOS I have two more TiVoHD DVRs and a Verizon DVR. One TiVo has a 500 GB external hard drive connected. It was a Plug'n Play arrangement. Just plug it into the TiVo and the TiVo internal hard drive is married to the external drive yielding another 90 hours of HD content for free.

As a TiVo owner you know how painless it is to record a program. That's the point I was trying to bring forth. This sort of "downloading" is accessible to the average consumer without the pain and suffering you so aptly described.

Larry

Regardless of whether the use of the word "downloading" is technically correct, you'll have to agree that for the average consumer it is a readily available source of HD content that competes to a degree with Blu-ray's adoption. Even though FiOS has excellent quality, no, its not on par with Blu-ray, but it is clear that most average consumers really don't care right now. (And as I mentioned, some content is simply not available on Blu-ray yet, i.e. Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, etc.)

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

For the most part they are the same encodes. There can be differences of course. bluray did allow a higher bandwidth, but most of that bandwidth went unused.

The difference have been argued back and forth and really aren't worth rehashing. I am not saying one is better than the other. The point I was making is that for the most part, storage was not really the problem on either side. Most folks not using an HTPC and ripping do not realize how small of a file size the features (main movie) actually takes compared to the remaining storage on the disk... including alot of people on these forums. The scary part is that you can burn most movies to 2-3 DVD-9 disks.

For the long run, I think the right format won which is really hard for me to say as an HD DVD backer do to its higher storage limit down the road for quad HD. Of course by then we will be looking at optical solutions like Tapestry Media (300GB-1.6TB), Holographic Versatile Discs (HVD - 200GB to 3.9TB) or Protein coated discs (PCD theoretical capacity up to 50TBs )

The multiple allowed codecs on both formats introduces something that DVD didn't had.... codec competition. And of course since these are commercially developed codecs, each one has its own licensing fees. Hence why one studio picks one over another. Studios tend to push why the codec they are using is better just as why many non-HDM owners justify why upscaled DVD is just as good, but it really comes down to money for the most part. Most things do.

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But back to topic, I am getting pretty cemented in my view that the only thing that will drive Bluray adoption is HDTV sales. Some will get them. Some wont. It is just a fact of life.

When I think back to DVD, I think what put a DVD player in nearly every household was the fact that it reached a point where it became harder to find anything supporting VHS including rental agencies. Alot of people stuck to VHS like it was the holy grail.

The base will need to slowly grow and from what we are reading 1 out of 4 of those folks will get an HDM player at the current prices. This slow growth is gonna take time. I know noone wants to hear 3-4 years, but I think that is really more realistic. I think most of us thinking 1-2 years is wishful thinking. 2011-2012. It will probably happen on 12-23-2012... muhahahahaha!

Posted Apr 7th 2008 11:52AM by Darren Murph
Filed under: HDTV, Home Entertainment

Given that Sony has primarily used its PlayStation 3 console to snag market share in the home video sector thus far, it's not surprising to see it branching out now that Blu-ray stands alone. Nevertheless, the next logical step has already been hinted at by Ryoji Chubachi at a recent press event in Taipei. Reportedly, Sony is hoping to "increase the global market share of its BD products from 20-percent currently to 50-percent by the end of 2008," and in order to do so, it's looking to gift select LCD HDTVs with "BD recording functionality." Of course, it was only a matter of time before those DVD / LCD combos became Blu-ray / LCD combos, but giving users the ability to capture broadcast material without an external burner is certainly an interesting twist.

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

This is why I loath Sony. They are one of these businesses that thinks people will buy their product no matter what they charge because it is a Sony.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Yea . . . after The Great Recession of 2009.

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

But back to topic, I am getting pretty cemented in my view that the only thing that will drive Bluray adoption is HDTV sales. Some will get them. Some wont. It is just a fact of life.

When I think back to DVD, I think what put a DVD player in nearly every household was the fact that it reached a point where it became harder to find anything supporting VHS including rental agencies. Alot of people stuck to VHS like it was the holy grail.

The base will need to slowly grow and from what we are reading 1 out of 4 of those folks will get an HDM player at the current prices. This slow growth is gonna take time. I know noone wants to hear 3-4 years, but I think that is really more realistic. I think most of us thinking 1-2 years is wishful thinking. 2011-2012. It will probably happen on 12-23-2012... muhahahahaha!

Originally Posted by kevivoe

Did anyone read the front page story about Sony putting blu-ray drives into LCD TV's?

They throw out some numbers. They want 80% market share by end of 2008. What ever this means. They want to increase the blu-ray penetration from current 20/80 verus DVD. When did blu-ray have 20% of the market compared to DVD? UPDATE: I may be reading this statistic wrong ...

It must be growing MUCH faster than anyone here imagines or the CEO of the LCD TV division for Sony is a smoke and mirror kind of guy.

story here

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1016904

Originally Posted by Hughmc

DVD took four years, so I think you are correct.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

But DVD was not driven by TV sales. And neither is BD.
2006 - 13 million HDTV's sold - How many BD players sold?

2007 - 16 million HDTV's sold - How many BD players sold?

The number making it's way around the HT Forums . . . SI . . . less than 600,000 SAL's

What ? The format war was the problem? Everyone sat on the fence? Format confusion?

How about when the Profiles issue hit the media and people figured out that there were 3 different kinds of BD players. Now player confusion?

If more people ignored the marketing and payed attention to the slivers of facts we get, then more would understand reality.

The biggest joke of the whole HDM is the "announcements." First it was title announcements - many were cancelled - they seemed to have solved that one.

Next - player announcements. So where is the Marantz? How about the Mits 3D player? What about the Loewe? All announcements - no players.(first week of Sept. 2007 for two of them)

Take any "announcement" with a grain of salt

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

It Sony's track record. They launched the PS3 at $599. One of their execs was quoted as saying "people will find the money even if they have to work longer hours" in response to a question about it being too high. Then they drop the price 6 months later because they finally realized people weren't going to pay $599 after it began sitting on the shelves.

I am not saying that Sony does not make a quality product. Unfortunately, I think they are Apple where people will pay any price because it has the Sony logo on it.

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

This is why I loath Sony. They are one of these businesses that thinks people will buy their product no matter what they charge because it is a Sony. You know this is gonna cost about 2x as much as a similar Sharp Aquos.

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

It Sony's track record. They launched the PS3 at $599. One of their execs was quoted as saying "people will find the money even if they have to work longer hours" in response to a question about it being too high. Then they drop the price 6 months later because they finally realized people weren't going to pay $599 after it began sitting on the shelves.

I am not saying that Sony does not make a quality product. Unfortunately, I think they are Apple where people will pay any price because it has the Sony logo on it.

Originally Posted by tqlla

Sony Charges what they think people will pay. What large company doesnt?

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

It Sony's track record. They launched the PS3 at $599. One of their execs was quoted as saying "people will find the money even if they have to work longer hours" in response to a question about it being too high. Then they drop the price 6 months later because they finally realized people weren't going to pay $599 after it began sitting on the shelves.

I am not saying that Sony does not make a quality product. Unfortunately, I think they are Apple where people will pay any price because it has the Sony logo on it.

Originally Posted by tqlla

Sony Charges what they think people will pay. What large company doesnt?

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

exactly Larry,

I don't buy the argument people wont notice a difference on a smaller TV. You will still see a difference at 27". Alot of people sit closer to a smaller TV. I have a 92" screen and definitely see a difference, but I also see a noticeable difference on my 20" LCD monitor.

Aside from that. People will definitely "see" a difference using bluray on a 480i TV. Placebo effect goes a long way. When I first got my HD DVD player, I thought HD was night and day better.... until I put in a newer SD DVD and realized how bad my old Phillips DVP642/37 was out component compared to the HDM player using the same media.

I think we can all agree that even we suffer from this placebo affect. It took me a long time to realize that my analog ins sounded better from my HD HTPC than using the optical in. I was just so used to seeing Dolby Digital or DTS show up - big psychological factor.

That aside, J6P is more likely to spend his $600-700 on an HDTV than $400 on a BR player.

I think most of us did the same thing. I got my HD projector with no intention of going with HDM for about 2-3 years. I just wanted better resolution as I use a larger screen. People warned that is how is starts. 6 months later, I seriously started looking for HD. I added HD OTA at 7 months. at 8 months I picked up an HD player to see the difference. At 10 months, I was hooked and spent about $400 putting upgrades into my HTPC to make it HD capable. This month I spent another $130 on a BR drive for it. Plus not to mention all the money I blew on cheap HD DVD because they were cheap - Why did I buy Rundown for 7.5?

Alot of people go through that process. But pricing plays a big part of that. I dont' know that I would have blown all than money on HD upgrades if I hadn't "tried out" HDM without a $150 HD DVD player.

I keep saying the $200 price point is key because that is when the avalanche of HD DVD buyers started going in. Also most DVD players are in the $100-140 range with the exception being high end Oppos... but J6P has never heard of Oppo unfortunately.. heck most J6Ps have never heard of Onkyo.

At $200, it starts to fall into that maybe I will give it a try product. I am in sales and have a good feel for pricing.

But regardless, HDTV sales are the true key. A good number of people will upgrade to HDM when or within a year of getting an HDTV. A good number wont, but many of those people wont even if the player drops to $100. Word of mouth is the biggest seller of these products. I think in the end, it was the word of mouth that did in Beta as more people bought it into VHS the first number of years and not so much advertising or even necessarily pricing (One of the key drivers of VHS was its longer recording time).

Originally Posted by LarryChanin

Hi Lee,

I'm not sure I completely follow your point, other than "Take any "announcement" with a grain of salt."

As you state, DVD player sales were not constrained by the need to purchase a standard definition TV. However, Blu-ray player sales have been constrained by the factors you mentioned, AND the need to purchase an HDTV.

How does the fact that Blu-ray faces greater impediments to adoption than DVD players, invalidate the argument that Blu-ray sales is still driven by HDTV sales? An HDTV is still a prerequisite to using a Blu-ray player.

Larry

Originally Posted by bjmarchini

That is what most folks never understood about storages and read into to much hype.

The actual movie only takes 15-25gb with lossless audio. This is why both formats were equal in PQ even though BD-50 had 2x the capacity of HD DVD - 30. HD DVD tended to use 86% VC1 where as BR is split about 1/3 each. It doesn't come down to the type of movie as you would expect. It comes down to which codec the studio prefers to encode. Universal and Paramount were big backers of VC1 (developed by MS). Sony uses Mp2 alot and AVC where needed (guess why - because VC1 was developed from Microsofts WMV codec).

It is not that they are limited the bit rate to save space... it just take that much under AVC or VC1. IMO, I can't tell the difference between any of the 3 codecs myself at 92". They look the same to me.

And furthermore, most BD is 25gb single layer disks. It takes alot to go past 25GB. It can be done, but not commonly.

The movie being very dark has nothing to do with the quality of the encode. It was a dark movie in the theater.

look at this. This is how much room these disks take and how big the actual feature is with the main track. the larger ones in the mid to upper 20's are a result of using the older less efficient codec, mp2, instead of AVC or VC1.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Yea . . . after The Great Recession of 2009.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

It's an article about the LCD's to be sold in Japan . . . IMO

Sony is hoping to "increase the global market share of its BD products from 20-percent currently to 50-percent by the end of 2008," and in order to do so, it's looking to gift select LCD HDTVs with "BD recording functionality."

Originally Posted by phansson

We have been in a recession since 2005. Would this not have affected HD DVD the same way?

Yes because the word GLOBAL in that article would refer to Japan....

Before you bother to push "bd recoding functionality", I would think if it can record it can probably play back Blu Ray discs....

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

You are kidding right? Read the news much?
What? They going to sell more PS3's?

So instead of just putting a ROM drive - they are going to go to the expense of a ROM/Record drive?

Money no object to Sony?

What good is a recorder in the USA . . . OTA? The smallest segment of the HD viewing market . . .

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

You are kidding right? Read the news much?

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

What? They going to sell more PS3's?

Posted Apr 7th 2008 11:52AM by Darren Murph
Filed under: HDTV, Home Entertainment

Given that Sony has primarily used its PlayStation 3 console to snag market share in the home video sector thus far, it's not surprising to see it branching out now that Blu-ray stands alone. Nevertheless, the next logical step has already been hinted at by Ryoji Chubachi at a recent press event in Taipei. Reportedly, Sony is hoping to "increase the global market share of its BD products from 20-percent currently to 50-percent by the end of 2008," and in order to do so, it's looking to gift select LCD HDTVs with "BD recording functionality." Of course, it was only a matter of time before those DVD / LCD combos became Blu-ray / LCD combos, but giving users the ability to capture broadcast material without an external burner is certainly an interesting twist.

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

So instead of just putting a ROM drive - they are going to go to the expense of a ROM/Record drive?

Originally Posted by phansson

Actually, I don't read the news. I can't afford a newspaper while I am preparing for this recession you keep talking about. You sound like the president. Doom and gloom....

Notice the word "global" in blue. That would not insinuate "in Japan only" as you stated earlier.

Can you not just admit you are wrong?

Does that article not state Blu Ray recorder? I would think if it could record on Blu Rays it could probably play them also.