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CECB Coupon Stats - Page 3

post #61 of 368
Is speculation allowed? The original blurb gave them 10% for admin costs. So my hunch is that the .7 million contingency used up has been earmarked to pay the admin costs needed to redistribute the 6.5 million in expired unused coupons.
post #62 of 368
Thread Starter 
Running expired coupons by week:

May 20th 269 expired coupons.
May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 this week).
June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 this week).
June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 this week).
June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 this week).
June 25th, 1,786,946 expired coupons (701,861 this week).
June 30th, 2,244,589 expired coupons (457,643 this week).
July 8th, 2,932,958 expired coupons (688,369 this week).
July 15th, 3,503,060 expired coupons (570,102 this week).
July 22nd 4,096,831 expired coupons (593,771 this week).
July 29th 4,672,451 expired coupons (575,620 this week).
August 5th 5,810,821 expired coupons (1,138,370 this week).
August 12th 6,659,962 expired coupons (849,141 this week).
post #63 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingRat View Post

Is speculation allowed? The original blurb gave them 10% for admin costs. So my hunch is that the .7 million contingency used up has been earmarked to pay the admin costs needed to redistribute the 6.5 million in expired unused coupons.

Thanks for your thoughts on this! However, I think it would be difficult for them to justify using contigency funds (supposedly for OTA households only) to pay for admin costs to distribute the expired coupons from initial funds (available to all households). Why not earmark initial funds to pay for admin costs of distributing expired initial funds coupons?

Anyway, here are my thoughts on this. It looks like they started using contingency funds right at the point where the initial 22.25 million coupons were issued. If I recall correctly, the available contingency coupons have decreased right around 400,000 from last week to this week, which also happens to be the rate at which they are issuing OTA-reliant household coupons every week (this is listed in weekly redemption data). So I'm speculating that they have started to do the following:

1. OTA-reliant household coupons (roughly 400,000 per week) are issued from contingency funds.

2. Households indicating a non-OTA service are issued coupons from initial funds (roughly 350,000 per week). This would also explain why available initial fund coupons are now increasing from week to week (more expiring than are issued from initial funds).

I suppose we'll see in future weeks if the same trend holds up!
post #64 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterTheGeek View Post

I also notice that the contingent fund is started to be used. I thought they were going to reissue the old funds. In the contingent funds you only get one coupon and you have to state that you use over the air TV only. We will have to see where this drama goes from here.

PeterTheGeek,

can you confirm that only one coupon is issued per household for the contingency fund? As I said in my post above, about 400,000 contingent coupons became unavailable within one week ... which is roughly the same rate at which OTA reliant households have been requesting them with 2 available per household. So, if only one is issued per household from contingent funds I'd expect the contingent fund to change by only 200,000 per week.
post #65 of 368
I just ordered a coupon - there's been no change to the eligibility. Non-OTA households can still apply (meaning they haven't switched to using contingency) and there's no limit - you can order 2 coupons. The mail date is 4 weeks after the order date.
post #66 of 368
Because I never spent money to get the gift card. The government didn't lose anything but postage, which they could have saved if they would have simply let me download the coupon instead of trying to use me as a statistic. They're taking all this data, and for what? More than likely so they can turn around and make people pay income tax on that $40. When I saw the process of applying, I was suspicious from the get-go, and frustrated that it was going to take weeks to receive something that should have been available at the press of a button. I have no regrets not using it.

Now, a couple years ago when I refused their "tax rebate", they cut me a new check! It will be interesting to see what they do as a result of my refusing to participate in THIS system.
post #67 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissIrisMG View Post

It will be interesting to see what they do as a result of my refusing to participate in THIS system.

Nothing - only death and taxes are musts - TV is not.
post #68 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 6,965,440 (through 8/19/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $278,617,600 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 8,718,990 coupons redeemed and 6,965,440 coupons expired without being redeemed.
post #69 of 368
^ the link still seems to show last weeks' numbers
post #70 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissIrisMG View Post

They're taking all this data, and for what? More than likely so they can turn around and make people pay income tax on that $40.

Interesting theory MissIrisMG, but in my understanding a coupon is considered a rebate on the purchase price and is therefore not taxable income. (However, I'm not a tax professional so take my interpretation with a grain of salt.) But you are correct in another way that your income taxes paid for the coupon, because after all the government is mostly funded by individual income taxes.

I think they are taking the coupon data to supposedly prove that the people who need the converters to continue to receive OTA broadcasts are actually getting them. I agree with you though that the administrative effort of the program is quite high. I would have been just as happy with a $80 special tax credit for 2008 instead (like they did with the telephone excise tax).
post #71 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by austriacus View Post

Interesting theory MissIrisMG . . . But you are correct in another way that your income taxes paid for the coupon, because after all the government is mostly funded by individual income taxes . . . I agree with you though that the administrative effort of the program is quite high. I would have been just as happy with a $80 special tax credit for 2008

I thought of thanking the government for giving me $80 worth of converter box coupons. Then I realized that I pay taxes so it's my own money in the first place. I asked a government official about this. He said that I was greatly mistaken, it was not my own money coming back to me. He said that $250 taken from a taxpayer in North Carolina was converted by the federal government, after deducting the government's expenses, into my coupons worth $80. Whew! I'm sure lucky to live in Oregon. (And let me add my thanks to the taxpayer in North Carolina.)
post #72 of 368
except your government official was mistaken. It was paid by the sale of that bandwidth they auctioned off. The got over 19 billion for the UHF part, and 1.6 went to this program.
post #73 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingRat View Post

except your government official was mistaken. It was paid by the sale of that bandwidth they auctioned off. The got over 19 billion for the UHF part, and 1.6 went to this program.

Now that I've retired from government service I was characterizing how the government conceptualizes the tax-and-spend mindset. What if I had written that the "taxpayer" had been in South Carolina?
post #74 of 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by TalkingRat View Post

except your government official was mistaken. It was paid by the sale of that bandwidth they auctioned off. The got over 19 billion for the UHF part, and 1.6 went to this program.

I thought the people were the government. Well - at least they're supposed to be.

So, didn't the taxpayers, in effect, auction off that bandwith?
post #75 of 368
It's more proper to think of the government as an "employee" of the people --- and a very ill-behaved employee at that. George Washington characterized government as a servant that is troublesome and dangerous. Like Fire.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MissIrisMG View Post

They're taking all this data, and for what? More than likely so they can turn around and make people pay income tax on that $40.

Actually the money comes from Comcast, Verizon, Microsoft, and other companies who purchased the rights to use channels 52 to 69. I don't understand why you would refuse to take free $40 coupons collected from the pockets of rich corporations? Every year the corporations treat their employees like cattle - I figure this is simply a form of payback.
post #76 of 368
DigaDo and Rammitinski, you are right of course, in the long run. Any money added to FCC is less required (in theory) of taxpayers. But how they get their money does speak to the issue of taxpayer accountability. The FCC kept 10 billion for themselves, spent 1.6 on CECBs. I don't remember where the other 7.4 billion went, maybe to reduce the deficit, or for CECB success parties. Unless congress intends to reduce their budget allocation by that amount, all that money is outside the usual checks and balances.
post #77 of 368
I believe the FCC is only mandated to conduct the auctions but the proceeds go to the Treasury Department (the FCC only keeps the portion that pays for the expense to conduct the auction). So it operates in a similar capacity to the IRS in this case - the IRS also doesn't collect money just for its own operations but to fund the entire government.

Therefore, it is correct that the auction revenue collected by the Treasury merely lessens the amount of tax revenue we have to pay, and if we want to have a fixed budget deficit then every auction revenue dollar spent to pay for CECB coupons has to be made up by an additional dollar of tax.

In my opinion the specific source of the funds that pay for the CECB program is meaningless unless the expense is connected to the revenue in some way. I suppose it could be argued that the CECB's are an infrastructure investment which allowed the analog spectrum not to be used anymore and auctioned off - i.e. without the 1.5 billion investment in CECBs the government would not have been able to raise $10 billion for the analog spectrum auction and taxpayers netted $8.5 billion in proceeds.
post #78 of 368
I did a rough calculation when I expect the coupons to run out for OTA and non-OTA reliant customers (which I will abbreviate as OTA and non-OTA) and came to the conclusion that both will be available until the end of the program in March 2009 with the current statistics.

Here it goes: I'm assuming about 350,000 non-OTA and 400,000 OTA requests each week and a redemption rate of about 50% or 375,000 per week (the other 375,000 go back into available funds, I'm assuming whichever they were paid out of, the initial or contigency fund).

So, it seems recently they started paying OTA from contigency funds and non-OTA from initial funds. However, on average we'll have 350,000 non-OTA applications in future weeks and 375,000 expired coming back into the initial fund for the next 3 months (because all expired coupons for the next three months were paid from initial funds). So, I expect roughly even in and outflow of coupons from initial funds for the next three months. Then, we should be left with roughly 6 million available coupons for initial funds by the end of November for non-OTA customers.

At the same time, 400,000 coupons for OTA will be issued from the contingency fund for the next three months without any funds flowing back in (none expired yet). So, the contigency fund will have about 6 million coupons left also by November.

Now, let's assume after November the redemption goes to 100%. How long will the 6 million initial fund for non-OTA last (at 350,000 per week)? 17 weeks, which is basically until end of March 2009 when the program is over. The 6 million contigency fund for OTA (at 400,000 per week) will last 15 weeks, about 2 weeks before the program ends. However, at less than 100% redemption we should have enough coupons being recycled that coupons are available for the entire duration. (at a continued 50% redemption we should have about 3 million unused coupons left in both funds in March)
post #79 of 368
^ while things are quite linear at this point in both requests and redemptions, that will certainly not be the case come 2/09.

The numbers:

Households Approved 13,393,242
Coupons Requested+ 25,160,081
Coupons Mailed+ 23,673,597
Coupons Expired 7,171,879
Coupons Redeemed+ 9,150,911
Coupons Active+ 7,350,807
Total Funds Committed+ $719,140,849
Total Funds Available+** $620,859,151
Funds Settled+ $349,420,766
Average Daily Orders YTD 105,267
Average Daily Orders Last 30 Days 110,472
Average Daily Orders Last Week 114,541
Redemption Rate 48.5%
Retailers/Locations 2,489 / 28,198
Phone/Online Retailers 13 / 34
Converters/Pass-through 146 / 73
post #80 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 7,171,879 (through 8/26/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $286,875,160 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 9,150,911 coupons redeemed and 7,171,879 coupons expired without being redeemed
post #81 of 368
Thread Starter 
Running expired coupons by week:

May 20th 269 expired coupons.
May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 this week).
June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 this week).
June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 this week).
June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 this week).
June 25th, 1,786,946 expired coupons (701,861 this week).
June 30th, 2,244,589 expired coupons (457,643 this week).
July 8th, 2,932,958 expired coupons (688,369 this week).
July 15th, 3,503,060 expired coupons (570,102 this week).
July 22nd 4,096,831 expired coupons (593,771 this week).
July 29th 4,672,451 expired coupons (575,620 this week).
August 5th 5,810,821 expired coupons (1,138,370 this week).
August 12th 6,659,962 expired coupons (849,141 this week).
August 19th 6,965,440 expired coupons (305,478 this week).
August 26th 7,171,879 expired coupons (206,439 this week).
post #82 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 7,511,317 (through 9/2/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $300,452,680 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 9,579,059 coupons redeemed and 7,511,317 coupons expired without being redeemed.
post #83 of 368
Here are some Wilmington, NC stats -- an example of what 300 events and a dozen full time staff members since May does for redemption stats -- not a whole lot.

Quote:


Acting agency chief Meredith Baker said Monday that more than 69,000 coupons have been requested from more than 37,500 households in the Wilmington market with about 47 percent coming from homes that rely on over-the-air broadcasts. More than 28,000 coupons have been redeemed to date, she said.

And if by Monday they mean today, the date of the actual transition, a 41% redemption rate, given 47% of those coupons are OTA only homes, ouch. Last night, it's reported WalMart ran out of boxes "until further notice," saying "Sorry for the inconvenience."


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j...dK4dgD932N61O0
post #84 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 7,866,676 (through 9/9/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $314,667,040 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 10,006,793 coupons redeemed and 7,866,676 coupons expired without being redeemed.
post #85 of 368
No real change in the overall pattern - very slowly approaching a 50% redemption rate.
post #86 of 368
Thread Starter 
Running expired coupons by week:

May 20th 269 expired coupons.
May 27th 183,583 expired coupons (183,314 this week).
June 3rd 489,873 expired coupons (306,290 this week).
June 10th 802,873 expired coupons (313,000 this week).
June 17th 1,085,085 expired coupons (282,212 this week).
June 25th, 1,786,946 expired coupons (701,861 this week).
June 30th, 2,244,589 expired coupons (457,643 this week).
July 8th, 2,932,958 expired coupons (688,369 this week).
July 15th, 3,503,060 expired coupons (570,102 this week).
July 22nd 4,096,831 expired coupons (593,771 this week).
July 29th 4,672,451 expired coupons (575,620 this week).
August 5th 5,810,821 expired coupons (1,138,370 this week).
August 12th 6,659,962 expired coupons (849,141 this week).
August 19th 6,965,440 expired coupons (305,478 this week).
August 26th 7,171,879 expired coupons (206,439 this week).
September 2nd 7,511,317 expired coupons (339,438 this week).
September 9th 7,866,676 expired coupons (355,359 this week).
September 16th 8,205,771 expired coupons (339,095 this week).
post #87 of 368
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by austriacus View Post

PeterTheGeek,

can you confirm that only one coupon is issued per household for the contingency fund? As I said in my post above, about 400,000 contingent coupons became unavailable within one week ... which is roughly the same rate at which OTA reliant households have been requesting them with 2 available per household. So, if only one is issued per household from contingent funds I'd expect the contingent fund to change by only 200,000 per week.

On the Government web page FAQ Coupon Program: Getting a Coupon -> 7.
Are all consumers eligible for the coupon program? You will find this:

Yes, but supplies are limited. There are 22.25 million coupons available to all U.S. households. Once those coupons have been used, there are an additional 11.25 million coupons available only to households that solely receive their TV broadcasts over-the-air using an antenna. Households with TVs connected to cable, satellite or other pay TV service are not eligible for this second batch of coupons. Consumers can apply for coupons until March 31, 2009, or until the funds are exhausted.

Now that the two funds are being used at the same time, reissuing the expired coupons from the first fund, they must be using funds from the contingent fund if the applicant qualifies. This really does confuse maters but it stretches out the money. This paragraph is conjecture and not fact.
post #88 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 8,205,711 (through 9/15/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $328,230,840 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 10,421,439 coupons redeemed and 8,205,711 coupons expired without being redeemed.
post #89 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 8,531,411 (through 9/23/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $341,230,840 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 10,839,358 coupons redeemed and 8,531,411 coupons expired without being redeemed.
post #90 of 368
The current number of expired converter box coupons is 8,853,848 (through 9/30/08):

https://www.mydtv2009.gov/Stats.aspx

This represents a loss in value of $354,128,320 to holders of expired converter box coupons.

There have been 11,247,772 coupons redeemed and 8,853,848 coupons expired without being redeemed.
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