Originally Posted by sacplasma
The more I read and the more I see I don't think BR stands much of a chance to be a mass product. Updates, discs that don't play, etc, etc. The average consumer would have no idea what you were talking about. BR right now is only about 10% of total sales. Reminds me of my days buying CED and Laserdiscs. The average consumer (and there are millions of them) have no idea how to use or adjust a new HDTV. I have owned a Panny 35 for about 6 months and have never done an update (still using 1.5). I have rented many BR's from Netflix and never had a problem with any of them (God am I lucky). BR's continue to be way too expensive to purchase. Most consumers are happy to see a movie once anyway.
I really think the future will be on-demand with cable boxes and streaming. And I am one who loves to purchase the movies I have enjoyed.
I hope you're wrong, but you could be correct. But I will also echo the post from lujan earlier:
Originally Posted by lujan
I for one will not substitute streamed movies for the physical media until the sound and video is as good as a blu-ray disc (7.1 dts master, 1080p video, etc.).
That said, TheDigitalBits reported this week that BD player sales were something like double what they were this time last year. Many analysts are predicting Q4 2009 as the period to watch w/ BD. Player prices are expected to drop into the $150 MSRP area, with some lower end models popping up for under $100. There will still be those pricey high end models, but jumping into Blu @ the local WalMart for a c-note or so could lead to a major boost in adoption, although it's been reported that BD adoption is ahead of DVD adoption in the same amount of time.
While disc prices do need to drop as well (and are expected to do so slightly), the same time player prices are expected to drop to all time lows, the market will also be flooded with a lot of major titles. Most if not all of the big 09 summer flicks will be on BD by XMAS 09, as well as a lot of high profile catalog stuff (Alien, Trek, possibly Indy Jones films, Braveheart, Gladiator and so on).
I do like whay Disney has started doing - issuing a DVD copy of the film with the BD. Much smarter, IMO, than the digital copy. Pretty much everyone has a DVD player. Plus, makes it easy to consider BD for Disney stuff - Mom & Dad play the BD in the main living/family/theater room & the kids can watch the DVD anywhere.
Of course, buying BDs from Amazon is still the best way to go, IMO. And my last visit to a Fry's also found me snapping up some HD DVDs for insane discount prices.
Eventually, I imagine all physical media will be gone & everything will be in some form of On Demand. Still think it's several years away & certainly needs time to, in the case of films, to catch up to the quality level we get via BD (or did get w/ HD DVD, too)