I also think the Dolphins will fall back a bit this year, but the #1 schedule thing is overrated. It only affects two games. Here is the breakdown:
They play 6 division games in the AFC east
Then the AFC east is already scheduled to play all the teams in the AFC South and NFC South this year, so that is 8 more cames.
That leaves 2 games left, where they will play the teams from the AFC West and AFC North that finished in the same position. So that means the play the Steelers and Chargers, who are both good teams, but doesn't make there schedule all that more difficult than the second place Patriots who will play all the same teams, except they have Denver and Balt instead of Pitt and SD. Sure obviously the Steelers are the best team in that bunch, but Den and SD are a wash, and Balt is only a small step down