Islam or Christianity? Capitalism or Socialism? NVIDIA or ATI? AMD or Intel?
All of these are basically third-rail type questions.
For HTPC, either mfgr's mid-range CPU's can give you smooth playback and low CPU utilization depending on OS, drivers, GPU, etc. Their high-end lines are generally overkill for HTPC applications.
If you're talking purely hypothetical, then it could be argued that AMD has closed/eliminated the gap with the latest Phenom II; others would maintain that Intel retains the lead at the bleeding edge ($$). You also need to look at CPU instructions per watt, if you want to add power consumption to the equation.
A lot of us (myself included) just like rooting for the underdog (AMD). Besides, you can get an 89 watt AMD Athlon64 6000+ for less than $80. Unless you're setting-up a production line for h.264 to mkv conversion, and plan to run it 7x24, that CPU can handle anything HTPC related you can throw at it and then some.
Bob