Originally Posted by larrimore
Thanks for the chart, but I do wonder what the percentages are on a unit basis. Does anyone know?
At a unit level BD is far less than the revenue market share.
DVD is entering its final phase, so downward price pressure is in full swing. I would guess that Blu is still at less than 10% on a unit basis. I am not sure that is good or bad, but this is a new model for sure.
It's good for BD, bad for DVD (and Toshiba). Apparently many die-hard fans of a certain defunct HD format don't understand this (not aimed at you larrimore), but this is NOT a new trend or sales model, it's the same one that plays out every time a new format replaces an old one. The high profit margin to lower sales volume trend gets reset, and as manufacturing prices come down and sales volume goes up retail prices are reduced to drive even greater sales volume/market penetration. One of the reasons the other format couldn't get more companies on board was it kept trying to skip this to squeeze the profit margins too early on in the life cycle.
By the time BD revenue hits 35-40% of the market DVD will be a dead legacy product from the POV of most companies. They'll shift to releasing DVDs later, just as they did with the VHS/DVD transition. Companies always favor higher-margin growth markets over saturated markets with razor-thin profit margins.
As for Toshiba, I think the change in management will help. As long as Toshiba thinks it is prolonging its DVD royalties and not cannibalizing future sales in other markets (consumer electronics, computers, etc.) it won't release a BD product...but there is little they can do to forestall the replacement of DVD at this point, and dragging their feet too much longer will cause them to lose brand support over the long run (many consumers don't know why Toshiba doesn't make a BD player, just that Sony, Panasonic, and Samsung do). It will become a bullet point that favors Dell or Sony laptops over their own, etc.
I expect Toshiba will quietly look into the manufacturing issue this year, but wait on the sidelines until after the next holiday season, hoping that interest in the format will dwindle (which it won't...sales and awareness have increased too far, it's all but inevitable baring an even greater economic collapse that BD will replace DVD over the next couple years). If BD sales continue on pace Toshiba will jump into the fray next year (possibly with a CES announcement in 2010) to help polish their brand and get in on the game.
Unlike the move from VHS to DVD, many peole will still buy DVDs as the player will still play them and they are cheaper.
Probably, but the same is true for people who own combo VHS/DVD players. My in-laws, for example, still pick up (used) VHS tapes on the cheap to this day. Doesn't change the fact that any new movie you want to see can only be had on DVD (and now BD).
It still doesn't make me feel great about BD, but it is good to see it growing, which is a start.
Not only is it growing, but BD sales as a percent of overall sales is pretty much on target compared to DVD/VHS. I don't know where this hysteria came from about BD, sales rate, and pricing, but it's right on track. It took DVD half a decade to catch VHS in actual unit sales, but that didn't change the fact that DVD was the de facto standard even before then. The same is happening right now with BD.
Some people have very short memories.