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When do you think Toshiba will release a stand alone Blu-ray player? - Page 2  

post #31 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by pointless2 View Post

I do read the Nielsen thread about once a week - I think that it is hilarious. Talk about obsessing over a format!

So then you realize that Blu-Ray (for quite a few new releases) is sometimes accounting for 20% of all home video sales? For instance, Valkyrie last week was the #2 best selling title on DVD and 20% of it's sales were on Blu-Ray. And we are talking about unit sales. Revenue wise, that percentage would be even higher for this particular title on Blu-Ray since the Blu-Ray version typically sells for $3-10 more than the DVD versions.

So if you do realize things like this (because you are reading the Nielsen thread) then why make such ridiculous statements like you have in this thread? I hate to tell you, but Blu-Ray is not going anywhere. DVD sales are dropping, and Blu-Ray sales are increasing. I would not be surprised to see many day and date releases on Blu-Ray next year accounting for 30%+ of sales. Some may even get close to 50% on any given week.

What is funny to me is to wander into this subforum and still see such bitterness towards Blu-Ray..
post #32 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

So can take those BD rips and burn them to a BD at a reasonable cost?
And if you did, you still need a BD player to watch them.
If they burn them to DVD, then they won't get the same PQ since the DVD output bandwidth is limited.

Or are you making another assumption that J6P is a savvy PC user and knows how to hunt, download these illegal rips and project the BD rip to his HDTV.
(*If this were true, I believe they call this digital media theft.)

Well you can call it whatver. The point is that every-single-person I know that downloaded HD rips to watch them, certainly didn't burn them to DVD or BD. They want it for free, so burning a disc is an expense they are certainly not going to accept.

The point is.. NAS devices, external hard drives, PCs connected to PS3s, Xbox 360s or whatever will be more and more homes. You don't need a Blu-ray player for that. Even CEs see that in order to sell Blu-ray players they have to integrated internet, Netflix and so on. Otherwise people don't buy.

DIdn't want to get off topic, just wanted to point out that nobody I know burns discs to Blu-rays Hell they don't burn stuff to DVDs. And I don't see that changing in the future. In fact, I know very little people who backup anything to optical media anymore. It's just very impractical. External 1tb drive for $90 is just so much more practical than $20 50gb BD-R and those HDD prices keep falling down and ridiculous rate with even higher capacity.
post #33 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

So then you realize that Blu-Ray (for quite a few new releases) is sometimes accounting for 20% of all home video sales?

I'd be interested to see what are those quite a few BD releases that sell 20% of DVD version? Do you have links or charts for those?
post #34 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by pointless2 View Post

I voted "Never".

I don't see that Blu-ray will ever be anything other than a niche product for videophiles. I sincerely doubt Blu-ray will ever see as much as 25% market share and more likely less than 20%. I personally am happy with that - both Blu-ray and HD DVD are the new laserdisc - and I loved laserdisc.

Toshiba saw the writing on the wall last year and is the smarter corporation for it. They knew that disc-based media's day were coming to a close and made other plans.


I do believe that physical media will continue to be available, but more likely memory-based solutions where there are no real limits to the capacity and bandwidth. I'm not much for renting and would rather own, so streaming is not for me.

Of course you would think that.

From 1/5/08:
Quote:


...I will not buy any Blu-Ray titles or players....

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showp...&postcount=504

I wonder if Toshiba did release a bluray player if you would buy it, since you know, it is from Toshiba and all. I mean, if Toshiba makes a bluray player, bluray will no longer be evil, right?

And it could sit next to your Toshiba XA2.
post #35 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

I'd be interested to see what are those quite a few BD releases that sell 20% of DVD version? Do you have links or charts for those?

I would suggest you look here (since this is Offtopic).

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...98272&page=219

Particularly at post #6562 and below.

Most recently Taken and Valkyrie have been doing about 20%.

Quantum of Solace has been doing about 25%.

And there are lots of others. Mainly action flicks, but it is not a rare occurrence anymore to see 20-25%, and as the weeks in release drag on, sometimes the blurays account for 50-75% of the copies sold in that week (V for Vendetta comes to mind). For example, here is the sales of Body of Lies:

Body of Lies
Week 1 in release: 21% of sales were on bluray
Week 2: 18%
Week 3: 21%
Week 4: 20%
Week 5: 21%
Week 6: 23%
Week 7: unknown
Week 8: 60%

You were not aware of this?
post #36 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

Well you can call it whatver. The point is that every-single-person I know that downloaded HD rips to watch them, certainly didn't burn them to DVD or BD. They want it for free, so burning a disc is an expense they are certainly not going to accept.

The point is.. NAS devices, external hard drives, PCs connected to PS3s, Xbox 360s or whatever will be more and more homes. You don't need a Blu-ray player for that. Even CEs see that in order to sell Blu-ray players they have to integrated internet, Netflix and so on. Otherwise people don't buy.

DIdn't want to get off topic, just wanted to point out that nobody I know burns discs to Blu-rays Hell they don't burn stuff to DVDs. And I don't see that changing in the future. In fact, I know very little people who backup anything to optical media anymore. It's just very impractical. External 1tb drive for $90 is just so much more practical than $20 50gb BD-R and those HDD prices keep falling down and ridiculous rate with even higher capacity.

Sadly, you are 100% correct. I know several people who have tons of BD rips on their hard drives and they usually get them long before they are available to you and me (studios need to quit handing out BDs to too many people weeks in advance of release dates). No one of them put their movies on discs.

We are seeing the same trend with video as with music. People illegally download content because it is fast and easy. And they go the free and illegal route because they are not familiar with a service that does the same thing for a fair price.

For music, that has mostly changed. People now are flocking to iTunes, Amazon, etc. Most people I know who used to illegally download now tend to pay for their songs. I know that Apple and Amazon have made a bunch of money off of me!

Once people get more familiar with Netflix, iTunes, etc and more HD content becomes available, I hope that the very prevalent illegal downloading of BD rips declines. I guess the other thing is they can't pack videos to full of DRM and make them difficult to watch.

What does this have to do with Toshiba? Well as time goes on and overall disc sales decline (I did not say BD), they are weighing their options. They were the ones who said a few years back that disc based HDM would compliment DVD and not replace it.
post #37 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

Well you can call it whatver. The point is that every-single-person I know that downloaded HD rips to watch them, certainly didn't burn them to DVD or BD. They want it for free, so burning a disc is an expense they are certainly not going to accept.

The point is.. NAS devices, external hard drives, PCs connected to PS3s, Xbox 360s or whatever will be more and more homes. You don't need a Blu-ray player for that. Even CEs see that in order to sell Blu-ray players they have to integrated internet, Netflix and so on. Otherwise people don't buy.

And HTPC and Home Media PC's were such a success that you see them being sold/advertised everywhere like when they were first introduced back in the day. Yup, the public has spoken and it has been mass adopted.

Like I stated before, just because the availability of a feature is there, does not mean it will be used. If someone buys a blu-ray player, PS3, Xbox, etc, they buy it for their primary function and may or may not use the added feature of streaming/VOD.
post #38 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

People illegally download content because it is fast and easy. And they go the free and illegal route because they are not familiar with a service that does the same thing for a fair price.

So, all of sudden when HD streaming/download becomes "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals) they will have it in their heart to now pay for it when it will still be available for illegal download through their criminal download network?
post #39 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

It is not clear how important Toshiba is to Blu-ray.

I would think that Blu-ray is important to Toshiba if they want to keep selling HDTV's and computers.

1. Retailers are going to be offering Blu-ray players bundled with HDTV sets this next fall. This trend is very clear. I have already seen Toshiba HDTV's bundled with Sony Blu-ray players. This cannot be good for Toshiba.

Funny that you mention bundling HDM players with likebranded HDTVs...apparently Toshiba (used) to think the same thing was at least partially important...enough to mention it in a press release:

Quote:


CES, LAS VEGAS - JANUARY 7, 2007
TOSHIBA DELIVERS - SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH OF SECOND GENERATION HD DVD PLAYERS COMPLETES THE SEAMLESS TRANSITION TO HIGH DEFINITION
...

"According to NPD Group data, the sales of HDTVs grew 52 percent between January and September of 2006. With the continued growth over this most recent holiday selling period and throughout 2007, we anticipate the demand for HD DVD to complement the demand and adoption of HDTVs," continued Sally. "There is no other high definition format in the market that can meet this demand with the same breadth of line and availability of players as Toshiba."

...
With black high gloss finishes and slim chassis designs, the new HD DVD player line has a refined, sleek appearance that complements Toshibas extensive TV line-up.

http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/news/new...asp?newsid=135

So, if Toshiba believed that HD DVD players complemented "demand and adoption of HDTVs" which included "Toshibas extensive TV line-up", why would a bluray player not do the exact same thing?

As usual, it appears that such thinking went out the window when they lost.
post #40 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

So, all of sudden when HD streaming/download becomes "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals) they will have it in their heart to now pay for it when it will still be available for illegal download through their criminal download network?

Well let's see what happened when music streaming/download became "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals)...Oh look..
Quote:


CUPERTINO, CaliforniaApril 3, 2008Apple® today announced that the iTunes® Store (www.itunes.com) surpassed Wal-Mart to become the number one music retailer in the US, based on the latest data from the NPD Group*. With over 50 million customers, iTunes has sold over four billion songs and features the world's largest music catalog of over six million songs.

I guess history is on my side!
post #41 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

Well let's see what happened when music streaming/download became "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals)...Oh look..

I guess history is on my side!

That doesn't mean that people that stole music suddenly started buying it at iTunes.

It means that now ~50% of the people that used to BUY their music at Walmart started buying it via iTunes. But they were music buyers all along. Not music stealers.

The people that stole music likely are still stealing it. You think once iTunes became available they suddenly said, "hey, why get this track for free when I can now buy it with Apple DRM and lesser quality for 99 cents". Sorry - it doesn't work that way. Nothing is more "aware/affordable" than FREE downloads via limewire, torrent, etc. It is the ultimate convenience. More convenient than iTunes.

You can't equate a shift in music being purchased from one store to another store by saying suddenly people that formerly stole music now buy it from iTunes. Those people don't buy music. They didn't buy it from Walmart. They don't buy it from iTunes. They steal it.

If your theory were correct, the music industry would be showing an incredible growth in sales, since ALL of those people that used to steal are now using iTunes to BUY. But that isn't happening. Merely, sales are shifting from the B&M retailers to online retailers. But it is the same buyers buying. Just in a different way (Walmart vs iTunes). Just like the same stealers aren't buying, they are sitll stealing.
post #42 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

It means that now ~50% of the people that used to BUY their music at Walmart started buying it via iTunes. But they were music buyers all along. Not music stealers.

The people that stole music likely are still stealing it.

As 42Plasmaman oftens says...link please. Where is you proof?

What we do know and have proof of is that once people became comfortable buying music downloads BILLIONS were sold over the Internet and download services quickly became some of the largest retailers in the US (and of course iTunes is #1). See my quote above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

If your theory were correct, the music industry would be showing an incredible growth in sales, since ALL of those people that used to steal are now using iTunes to BUY.

Um, no. People now have far more entertainment choices than just listening to music these days (video games are killing both music and video). I am not going to waste anymore time on this, but search the internet and read the studies.
post #43 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

As 42Plasmaman oftens says...link please. Where is you proof?

What we do know and have proof of is that once people became comfortable buying music downloads BILLIONS were sold over the Internet and download services quickly became some of the largest retailers in the US (and of course iTunes is #1). See my quote above.


Um, no. People now have far more entertainment choices than just listening to music these days (video games are killing both music and video). I am not going to waste anymore time on this, but search the internet and read the studies.

Your logic relies on that a digital media thief who now has a choice of:

A. Get the digital media for free like before using illegal downloads.
B. Buy the digital media because they have a conscience and want to feed the beast(corperations).

will switch to buying digital media.
I suspect they stick with option A until they get caught. Some people in society believe they are entitled to digital media for free and just because it's now available for purchase on the Internet isn't going to sway them in their morals or thought process.
post #44 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

As 42Plasmaman oftens says...link please. Where is you proof?

Quote:


New figures from media research group Nielsen SoundScan claim that U.S. sales of music CDs declinedby 20 percent in the first quarter of 2007 compared to the sale period a year ago, underscoring the music industry's sentiment that digital music downloads are undermining their business. SoundScan also offered figures for digital music sales, noting that while sales of digital albums fell during the same period, the sales of digital music singles actually rose. The numbers may indicate a fundamental shift in the music industry away from album-based sales to a singles-driven, digital market.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/news-a...own-20-percent

Quote:


Digital sales boost music industry
Album sales drop yet again
By PHIL GALLO

The music biz can't stem the bleeding, but for now, digital tracks are proving to be a secure Band-aid.

Album sales dropped for a seventh consecutive year, but a dramatic increase in the sale of digital tracks helped keep the music industry afloat in 2006.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111...goryid=16&cs=1

Quote:


"The trends we're seeing in our consumer tracking studies are evidence of the continued transformation of the music industry," said Russ Crupnick, NPD's entertainment industry analyst. "Just as music piracy and the advent of digital music ended the primacy of the CD, we are beginning to see new forms of listening challenge the practice of paying for music. The music industry now has to redouble efforts to intercept and engage these listeners, so they can create revenue through up-selling music, videos, concert tickets and related merchandise."

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6644692.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

What we do know and have proof of is that once people became comfortable buying music downloads BILLIONS were sold over the Internet and download services quickly became some of the largest retailers in the US (and of course iTunes is #1). See my quote above.

Yeah - people are buying singles as opposed to whole albums. Or in other words, shifting from physical to digital. This has nothing to do with people stealing music. It means people that buy music are buying it in a different way. But people that were stealing, or in other words GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE, have not suddenly started buying music. Why would they pay for something they have been getting for free?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

Um, no. People now have far more entertainment choices than just listening to music these days (video games are killing both music and video).

And this has nothing to do with your original supposition that music thieves have suddenly turned into music buyers because of iTunes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

I am not going to waste anymore time on this, but search the internet and read the studies.

Ditto.
post #45 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

Yeah - people are buying singles as opposed to whole albums. Or in other words, shifting from physical to digital. This has nothing to do with people stealing music. It means people that buy music are buying it in a different way. But people that were stealing, or in other words GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE, have not suddenly started buying music. Why would they pay for something they have been getting for free?.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10223789-16.html
Quote:


While the music industry desperately searches for ways to stem the tide of piracy that threatens to engulf it, new data from the BI Norwegian School of Management suggests that music pirates actually buy more music than others. A lot more.
As Ars Technica reports,
When it comes to P2P, it seems that those who wave the pirate flag are the most click-happy on services like the iTunes Store and Amazon MP3. BI said that those who said they download illegal music for "free" bought 10 times as much legal music as those who never download music illegally.

That pretty much proves your silly statement false. Not only are they legally buying music, they are 10x times more likely to do so than someone who NEVER downloaded illegally.

btw, it was the singles as opposed to whole albums and the price fixing by the music industry from 1995-2000 that drove people to downloading illegally in the first place. Once they finally had a legal option that was fair, many went that route.

/off topic

let's get back to Toshiba...
post #46 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10223789-16.html


That pretty much proves your silly statement false. Not only are they legally buying music, they are 10x times more likely to do so than someone who NEVER downloaded illegally.

/off topic

Not quite.

Why? The same people in the Norwegian study also steal a lot more than the other people (who said they "never" download illegally).

Here is a simple example that shows how the article does not prove what you think it proves:
Let's say I don't steal music. I buy 1 album per year.

We know the people in the study steal music. They admitted it. To satisfy the 10x rate that they buy music more than me, that means a stealer would have to buy 10 albums in a year (since 10x my 1 album is 10 albums).

But here is the kicker...how much is the stealer stealing versus how much he is buying???

They bought 10 albums, but they could illegally download 300 albums in the same year.

So where does that the music industry at the end of the year?

They have 11 albums that were purchased by myself and the stealer combined, and 300 that were stolen by the stealer. I think even you can see that the situation is not good. 300:11 is not a good ratio to have. In simpler words, people are stealing more than they buy.


If all stealers also bought music at a 10x rate, the music industry simply would not be in decline. But it simply is. If everyone were buying more music than they steal, the industry would have ridiculous growth. It would not be shedding 20% CD sales, etc.

I can't believe you are still trying to pass this stuff, especially since you tried to tie the music industry behavior to downloading movies.

People steal music. It has been the bane of the music industry ever since Napster was released. Just because iTunes came out doesn't mean people stopped illegally downloading music. People are also now stealing movies. Just because they can get movies from other places, and even buy some, doesn't mean they aren't stealing, and doesn't mean they aren't stealing more than they buy.

Oh, and here is the record labels response to the same study:
Quote:


Record label EMI doesn't quite buy into BI's stats, though. EMI's Bjørn Rogstad told Aftenposten that the results make it seem like free downloads stimulate pay downloads, but there's no way to know for sure. "There is one thing we are not going away, and it is the consumption of music increases, while revenue declines. It can not be explained in any way other than that the illegal downloading is over the legal sale of music," Rogstad said.

Rogstad's dismissal of the findings don't take into account that the online music model has dramatically changed how consumers buy music. Instead of selling a huge volume of full albums—the physical media model—the record labels are now selling a huge volume of individual, cherry-picked tracks. It's no secret that the old album format is in dire straits thanks to online music, which is a large part of why overall music revenue is going down.

BI's report corroborates data that the Canadian branch of the RIAA, the Canadian Record Industry Association, released in 2006. At that time, the organization acknowledged that P2P users do indeed buy more music than the industry wants to admit, and that P2P isn't the primary reason why other people aren't buying music. 73 percent of of respondents to the CRIA's survey said that they bought music after they downloaded it illegally, while the primary reason from the non-P2P camp for not buying music was attributed to plain old apathy.

http://arstechnica.com/media/news/20...rage-folks.ars

Why are revenues declining if illegal downloaders buy at a 10x rate? Hmmm...probably because the rate at which they steal is 100x. Not good when more of your product is stolen than bought.
post #47 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

They have 11 albums that were purchased by myself and the stealer combined, and 300 that were stolen by the stealer. I think even you can see that the situation is not good. 300:11 is not a good ratio to have. In simpler words, people are stealing more than they buy.[/i]

Extremely flawed logic. The average person who illegally downloaded music in 1997 (you said they never change right?) would not buy 300 albums a year if he had no illegal option.

Anyway, I think we agree that your claim...
Quote:


people that were stealing, or in other words GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE, have not suddenly started buying music.

...is false. They ARE buying music and a lot of it.
post #48 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

Extremely flawed logic. The average person who illegally downloaded music in 1997 (you said they never change right?) would not buy 300 albums a year if he had no illegal option.



The point is someone can download 300 albums but only buy 10. If you had a B&M record store with that amount of "shrink", you would be out of business in a week.

This is the situation the music industry is facing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

Anyway, I think we agree that your claim...

...is false. They ARE buying music and a lot of it.

No. We agree on nothing.

If so much music is selling, then why are music industry revenues falling all the time?

Something doesn't add up. record labels make money from CDs. they make money from iTunes. They make money from Pandora. Yet why are revenues falling? Because they DON'T make money from illegal downloads.

People have been stealing loads of music ever since Napster came out, and every variation since (Kazaa, limewire, torrent, etc.). Surely you won't deny this simple fact, right?

Why do you think college campuses had to crack down? Kids were coming in and downloading a ridiculous amount of illegal material off of all of those campus T1 lines.

Why do you think the RIAA is suing 80 year old grandmothers? For fun? Because they are SCARED. Not to say the RIAA are good guys, but they are like a rat backed into a corner now. Desperate. Their property is getting stolen left and right.

What exactly are you getting at with your insistence here?

It is undeniable that people have been stealing loads of music for almost a decade now, and that it has had a tremendous effect on the music industry. This is regardless of the fact that music appears to be shifting from a physical landscape to the digital landscape, and from an album landscape to a single landscape (brought along by the physical to digital transition). I can download a CD 2 weeks before it hits stores. Just because people changed from buying a CD to buying an mp3 doesn't mean they don't steal even more than what they buy.

SO WHAT IS YOUR POINT? Whatever it is it is full of fallacies.
post #49 of 94
Why I picked never for the poll . . .

1. The longer Toshiba waits to make a BD player - the lower the price goes which means the lower the profit goes.

2. AFAIK, Toshiba holds zero patents on BD so the only profit they will derive is from the sale of their BD players.

3. We have see a while ago, Toshiba file for patents for quad layer DVD.

4. At CES they showed a system consisting of a 4K 60" FPD and a CELL BE based processor that upconverts HD to 4K. Supposedly to be released (the system) in Japan Q3 this year.

5. A "tell" that Toshiba is getting ready to release a BD player would be for them to join the BDA - that hasn't happened yet.
post #50 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

So, all of sudden when HD streaming/download becomes "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals) they will have it in their heart to now pay for it when it will still be available for illegal download through their criminal download network?

It's not about price for most people I know who download from torrents though. it's about convenience. If you can download movie without going anywhere and you do it even at a solid speed people will do that.
post #51 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Why I picked never for the poll . . .

1. The longer Toshiba waits to make a BD player - the lower the price goes which means the lower the profit goes.

2. AFAIK, Toshiba holds zero patents on BD so the only profit they will derive is from the sale of their BD players.

3. We have see a while ago, Toshiba file for patents for quad layer DVD.

4. At CES they showed a system consisting of a 4K 60" FPD and a CELL BE based processor that upconverts HD to 4K. Supposedly to be released (the system) in Japan Q3 this year.

5. A "tell" that Toshiba is getting ready to release a BD player would be for them to join the BDA - that hasn't happened yet.

1. That doesn't stop them from making new DVD players. XDE anyone?? What's the difference? If they can see fit to sell the XDE at $149.99 (initially) even though $29.99 DVD players are out, surely they can find a price point for a bluray player. After all, every other CE has.

2. Might come with 5.

3. And? You know how many patents are issued that are never commercialized? Toshiba was also supposed to come out with a "Super resolution" DVD player - that never happened.

4. Too far ahead of its time to make an impact or be commercialized on a large scale.

5. Maybe they are busy "reorganizing" the DVD Forum...or focusing on XDE2, or that little SD card player thing, that may/may not actually play HD content. Let me know when they are intersted in HD again, as opposed to upscaling trickery.


Why did Toshiba used to believe that HDM was a selling point for HDTVs, yet now they try to peddle XDE with HDTVs? Isn't this an insult to HD DVD owners?

Quote:


"According to NPD Group data, the sales of HDTVs grew 52 percent between January and September of 2006. With the continued growth over this most recent holiday selling period and throughout 2007, we anticipate the demand for HD DVD to complement the demand and adoption of HDTVs," continued Sally. "There is no other high definition format in the market that can meet this demand with the same breadth of line and availability of players as Toshiba."

...
With black high gloss finishes and slim chassis designs, the new HD DVD player line has a refined, sleek appearance that complements Toshibas extensive TV line-up.

http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/news/new...asp?newsid=135

Wouldn't a nice Toshiba bluray player fill the gap left by HD DVD? What can they market with their HDTVs now? Nothing that is real HD.
post #52 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

So, if Toshiba believed that HD DVD players complemented "demand and adoption of HDTVs" which included "Toshibas extensive TV line-up", why would a bluray player not do the exact same thing?

As usual, it appears that such thinking went out the window when they lost.

Its pretty sad when anyone or any organization, in this case Toshiba, completely back tracks and ignores what its true beliefs are, just to not look like a failure.

I mean Toshiba really needs to let it go.

For them to suddenly say that a High Definition physical format is useless, just because HD DVD lost, is sad. Not only is it sad, it represents a completely flawed strategy.

They should have dumped EVERYONE that was the slightest bit involved with the development of HD DVD, and get totally new people in there, so that hard feelings won't effect future decisions.
post #53 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

I would suggest you look here (since this is Offtopic).

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...98272&page=219

Particularly at post #6562 and below.

Most recently Taken and Valkyrie have been doing about 20%.

Quantum of Solace has been doing about 25%.

And there are lots of others. Mainly action flicks, but it is not a rare occurrence anymore to see 20-25%, and as the weeks in release drag on, sometimes the blurays account for 50-75% of the copies sold in that week (V for Vendetta comes to mind). For example, here is the sales of Body of Lies:

Body of Lies
Week 1 in release: 21% of sales were on bluray
Week 2: 18%
Week 3: 21%
Week 4: 20%
Week 5: 21%
Week 6: 23%
Week 7: unknown
Week 8: 60%

You were not aware of this?

So you take 2 movies as a trend? From Kosty's posts in that other thread I see that individual title sales hover around 10-15% and they peak on ocassion to 20%.. Paul Blart was a single case I've seen in a long time that sold 25% of DVD version.

You look at BD/DVD*100 numbers right? Cause that's the percentage of unit sales.

Blu-ray still has a looooong way to go when you look at some of these charts, especially this one:



and this is why I think we'll see mixed market where Blu-ray hardware and software won't be making nearly the amount of money as DVD. When DVD was around there weren't so many other ways of getting content.

Since market will be segmented as Everdog said (which is pretty logical) I don't see Toshiba investing anything in Blu-ray but trying to dominate other content delivery methods and physical distribution through media and DVD.

I can see in the next 5 years market being 50% DVD, 25% Blu-ray, 25% Digital Downloads/Subscriptions/VOD with slowly marketshare going in favor of digital content delivery after that especially if we see Apple and others introducing kiosks and other methods of getting content in a form other then optical media which is by itself technology deprecated and growth limited.
post #54 of 94
Mitsubishi makes all kinds of HDTV's:

http://www.mitsubishi-tv.com/

I don't see a BD player.
post #55 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

I thin your logic is flawed...

Given your response after that I'd take it as a compliment.


Quote:


First VHS cost much more (and takes a lot longer) to produce than DVD (so studios wanted to get away from it), while BD cost more than DVD.

Um, not when DVD first came out it didn't. You can't compare DVD 6 years after adoption to BD now, that's comparing apples to space shuttles.

Quote:


Also, DVDs are lighter and take up less space, therefore they are cheaper to ship.

Technically BD cases are smaller and therefore marginally cheaper to ship en masse as well. Regardless, the cost difference in both cases is insignificant compared to other costs and played no significant role.

Quote:


Second, you could record/copy with VHS and studios hated that which is another reason they wanted to transition.

Um...have you been to Dell or a Fry's lately? DVD burner's are very common and frequently used to back up DVDs. For movie producers the problem is probably worse with DVD than it was for VHS, as copying VHS tapes required either a special dubbing deck with two VHS slots to record from one tape to another, or else two DVD players in a row, which made significantly degraded copies. DVD ripping is common and produces a copy with no degradation. Presumably that's why several studios invested a lot of money into enhanced copyright protection.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of such schemes, but you're flat wrong if you think VHS copying of movies was more of a problem then DVDs are (even if you don't burn new copies, people make digital copies of their DVDs and then use them on computers, iPods, etc too!).

Quote:


Third, it will still be a few years before BD hits 35-40% of the market and by then BD prices will have dropped to near the same price as DVD, so the profits margins will be close to same... and DVD will still be selling 2x BD.

I doubt your numbers. First of all, DVD sales are dropping, and are only being propped up as high as they are by continuing to slash margins (in essence, aside from new releases they are selling things to be only because they prices are so low that consumers figure it's worth a couple of bucks). The rate at which DVD margins are dissapearing mean BD revenue will catch DVD sooner rather than later. Given the 15%+ already seen, I'd expect to see 25-30% after next holiday season, maybe higher if falling HDTV prices increase consumer penetration faster.

There is no way BD movie prices will fall as fast as you imply (e.g. so fast they will be priced the same as DVDs in a couple years). The main factor inhibiting growth in BD is having enough HDTVs installed (primary consumer adoption) not media prices, while the main factor inhibiting DVD sales is market saturation (hence reduced prices are the only way to go). Claiming otherwise demonstrates your lack of a grasp on the market forces involved.

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Fourth, in 2 years virtually every TV and disc player will support streaming

Um, how about "in 2 years virtually every high end TV and disc player ON SALE will support streaming". People who bought TVs last year are not going to run out and buy new ones in two years just because they let you watch youtube videos.

Also, in your haste to repeat anti-BD talking points, you miss an obvious fact; the market is already fragmented, and has been throughout most of DVDs life cycle as well. Movies on Demand aren't a new thing that just showed up last year. The fact that hotels, satellite, DVRs, etc have been out for most of the last decade didn't meant that DVD wasn't the industries bread and butter for packaged media. And there aren't going to be DVD players for sale in two years with streaming ability, they will be Blu-ray players. This added convenience will be one more reason why late adopters will switch to Blu-ray, not something that will hinder its adoption. But if you think video on demand will replace packaged media in the next few years, you're engaging in wishful speculation.

Quote:


I have said all along...

And how has your track record been so far?

Quote:


... in a couple years we will see a good mix of marketshare like this (just a guess):
BD - 25%
DVD-50%
Streaming-20%
??-5%

Those numbers are meaningless without more context. Are they unit or revenue? What is the current marketshare of VoD applications (you realize that "streaming" is just a new form of delivery for VoD, right?). Do you think streaming VoD is likely to cannibalize disk sales (why more than VoD already has?), erode already existing VoD sales (e.g. may no real impact on disk sales) or simply merge with current VoD choices from a consumers point of view (e.g. have satellite companies stream more choices right to the TV).

You are just repeating banal platitudes that give specious reasons why the same market forces that have worked for the last 20 years are suddenly going to change, handing you personal revenge by stopping BD from becoming the dominant packaged media format.
post #56 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Why I picked never for the poll . . .

1. The longer Toshiba waits to make a BD player - the lower the price goes which means the lower the profit goes.

2. AFAIK, Toshiba holds zero patents on BD so the only profit they will derive is from the sale of their BD players.

3. We have see a while ago, Toshiba file for patents for quad layer DVD.

4. At CES they showed a system consisting of a 4K 60" FPD and a CELL BE based processor that upconverts HD to 4K. Supposedly to be released (the system) in Japan Q3 this year.

5. A "tell" that Toshiba is getting ready to release a BD player would be for them to join the BDA - that hasn't happened yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

When will Toshiba release a stand alone Blu-ray player?

I voted never because there was an option missing . . .

Who cares?

Which story to believe... hmmmm....
post #57 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

So you take 2 movies as a trend?

I am not going to dig up all the releases that have averaged at 20% or higher. The Dark Knight has. Probably Iron Man. Probably Hellboy II. Eagle Eye. You figure it out.

And yes, there is a trend. Most new actions flicks do about 20% on bluray.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

Blu-ray still has a looooong way to go when you look at some of these charts

Long way for what? I enjoy the hell out of blurays I buy and rent regardless of their % of sales versus DVD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

and this is why I think we'll see mixed market where Blu-ray hardware and software won't be making nearly the amount of money as DVD. When DVD was around there weren't so many other ways of getting content.

Since market will be segmented as Everdog said (which is pretty logical) I don't see Toshiba investing anything in Blu-ray but trying to dominate other content delivery methods and physical distribution through media and DVD.

I can see in the next 5 years market being 50% DVD, 25% Blu-ray, 25% Digital Downloads/Subscriptions/VOD with slowly marketshare going in favor of digital content delivery after that especially if we see Apple and others introducing kiosks and other methods of getting content in a form other then optical media which is by itself technology deprecated and growth limited.

Bluray sales are killing digital download sales. And digital downloads have been out longer. Exactly when will downloads be taking off again? When bluray players are $99 and movies are about the same as DVD is now?

I keep hearing about downloads, but yet they are still clocking single digit %'s all around. Apple TV has been out for over 2 years. I don't see it making many waves. Vudu has been out for over a year. Where are the sales???

If bluray and downloads will be 25% each in 5 years....downloads already have a lot of catching up to do.
post #58 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Mitsubishi makes all kinds of HDTV's:

http://www.mitsubishi-tv.com/

I don't see a BD player.

And Westinghouse doesn't either.

Question: Would Toshiba rather be compared with Mitsu and Westinghouse, or LG, Samsung and Panasonic?

Unless they want their brand image to fall, I would hope they choose to compete with the higher end of the CE pool...not the lower end.

Not too mention that fact that Toshiba USED to explictly mention in press releases how grrrreat their HD DVD players worked with HDTVs, especially Toshiba HDTVs. Obviously the intent was there to bundle HD DVD players with HDTVs, preferably Toshiba HDTVs. Now what do they have to bundle??? The XDE? Which is $79.99 and quickly falling off store shelves to discontinued status?
post #59 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Why I picked never for the poll . . .

1. The longer Toshiba waits to make a BD player - the lower the price goes which means the lower the profit goes.

Profit of course is equal to net take per unit x number of units sold. There is quite likely a lot more profit to be made as prices come down, especially since Toshiba can take advantage of ready-made chipset designs. In addition to this, the importance of brand support (letting Toshiba fans buy a Toshiba disk player along with their shiny new LCD TV) is valuable too. Toshiba risks losing TV and other electronics sales if their brand loses appeal by not making a product in a popular market segment. Ask Sony how many DVD players they sold in the 1980's compared to other companies.

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2. AFAIK, Toshiba holds zero patents on BD so the only profit they will derive is from the sale of their BD players.

See above comments about the importance of brand recognition and perception. Still, you are right that they will certainly not make one if they think it will hurt their DVD royalties. Still, the writing will probably be on the wall by the end of this year.

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3. We have see a while ago, Toshiba file for patents for quad layer DVD.

Which is almost certainly irrelevant for the foreseeable future. Possibly even more so now that management is changed at Toshiba.

Quote:


4. At CES they showed a system consisting of a 4K 60" FPD and a CELL BE based processor that upconverts HD to 4K. Supposedly to be released (the system) in Japan Q3 this year.

Much like OLED TVs I imagine (oops, they already failed to appear last year...maybe this year?). Toshiba is not going to invest a lot of money in an economic downturn to try and introduce a new format, and it wouldn't save DVD even if they did. It would cost more money, and they'd probably still have to sell a rebadged Toshiba BD player in the long run.

Ultimately it's their brand to do whatever they see fit to it, but my guess is "never" is too long to wait, especially with new management that didn't lose face on HD DVD.
post #60 of 94
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozster View Post

So you take 2 movies as a trend? From Kosty's posts in that other thread I see that individual title sales hover around 10-15% and they peak on ocassion to 20%.

You realize that BD has only been competing against DVD as the defacto followup format (e.g. after the format war) for less than a year and a half, right? How much of VHS's sales where DVD after 18 months of competition?

Quote:


can see in the next 5 years market being 50% DVD, 25% Blu-ray, 25% Digital Downloads/Subscriptions/VOD with slowly marketshare going in favor of digital content delivery after that especially if we see Apple and others introducing kiosks and other methods of getting content in a form other then optical media which is by itself technology deprecated and growth limited.

Wow, how do you generate those numbers??? First of all, since BD sales already hit as high as 20-25% on individual titles, do you really think BD sales are going to grow no more than 20% from this point over the next 5 years? Really??? And are you looking at unit or revenue? How will DVD sales stay that high since they have been falling while BD sales grow?

Also, 25% to VoD (in all it's flavors) how? Do you mean it will take 1/4 of the current disk market? Or did you mean of all video revenue? What is it at now? Given how popular VoD is now, is that even growth in the overall market? You guys post these numbers as if they mean somthing, but you don't even know what the numbers are now for goodness sake.
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