Quote:
Originally Posted by
willscary 
AlphaWolf,
you are pretty sure of the abilities of the internet. OK, lets take youtube...
Let's say that there are roughly 60 million Americans between the ages of 12 and 24. this covers all teenagers and college students. It may seem like ALL of the people in this demographic are youtube, netflix and hulu fanatics. this would not be true. In the home, roughly 75% of these people have access to internet and fewer than 1/2 of them have access to decent high speed internet capable of high definition streaming. Of the roughly 30 million in this group, my guess would be that fewer than half of them are really "into" this kind of media and I would hope it would be MUCH less. Most of the kids that I know are more interested in athletics than watching TV and movies online. But, just for the sake of arguement...lets say that all of the kids in the group stream 2.7 hours per day (the average that US citizens watch TV on average per day). We stream Netflix at our house. My connection is 60+ Mbps and we experience stoppages and inabilities to use Netflix from time to time.
That is more a symptom of netflix not being a perfect service, than it is a bandwidth issue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
willscary 
Seldomly do I see a Youtube video that is truly television quality.
While I can't speak for you, I see them all the time, especially as 1080p cameras are gaining wider usage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
willscary 
OK, so that is my experience with blazing fast internet at a time where less than 9% of the population (more likely 2-3%) are viewing video in this way. What will happen OTA, cable and satellite are taken over by internet services? Can the internet...or more specifically, can WIRELESS internet services provide 30-40 times more on-demand programming at a television quality bandwidth? I would estimate that we would need roughly 200X as much bandwidth as we do now, simply for video. Then, there is radio...better than the horrible MP3 type audio we normally see. Then there is telephony and texting. Then there is data such as websites. Then there is cloud computing. Then there is online data storage and backups.
You should realize that you are working on the assumption that technology will never improve.
Back in the late 80's, if I had told you that we could receive 500 channels from a single non-moving dish, you would have said: "This is simply extreme stupidity! We would need thousands of times the bandwidth!"
1992 comes along, and we get MPEG-2 compression and more bandwidth in the form of Ku-band spectrum which renders C-band obsolete, along with a dish that is only a fraction of the size.
If I would have told you in 1992, that we could have 500 channels of 2 megapixel resolution, with 5.1 channel discrete surround sound, without a moving dish, you would have said: "This is simply extreme stupidity! We would need thousands of times the bandwidth!"
Along comes 2004, and we have MPEG-4 and ac-3 compression along with increased bandwidth provided by ka-band spectrum
As a networking guy myself, I can tell you something about an existing trend. In the 90's, it was common practice to have 3 networks within a single building. One for telephone communication, one for data, and one for video. Today in new offices, we have one single converged network that handles all 3. Your computer, your phone, and your video conferences and security cameras all connect to the same wire (divided only by what we call vlans.) Even more interesting is that back in those times, 2Mbit links in large offices were common. Today links with literally thousands of times that bandwidth are common.
This has spread to some degree to the home as well. Yesterday we had 14.4k dialup, today we have broadband connections that have thousands of times the bandwidth. Soon, it will spread worldwide.
That's why right now, I am telling you, that in ten to twenty years from now, all communication will be over a single network. But, you will insist that:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
willscary 
This is simply extreme stupidity. We are talking about wireless spectrum that needs to be capable of THOUSANDS of times more bandwidth than we currently have and a system capable of keeping everything safe, secure and correctly routed.
Again, a national wired broadband and OTA radio and TV allow current wireless to work effectively and take much of the future load away from wireless. This is a better idea.
Just my opinion.
Wireless will be used for last mile communication, as well as other situations where running wireline is just impractical.
I understand where you guys are coming from though, you have an old technology you've trusted for years, and you are doing your best to keep it alive. But just as every obsolete technology before it has gone, there will soon become a point where it is no longer necessary.