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Will early adopters be punished?

post #1 of 39
Thread Starter 
So, I'm looking back at my experience with HDTV, and the rest of us, and avsforum.com, back to the first people who had HDTV's, and had nothing to watch, through the people that got them a couple of years after that, and found they really needed newer and better equipment later. Heck some of us got in well past the early adopter stage only to find out we weren't watching true HD because it wasn't in full 1080p all of a sudden. I remember doing all my research on my TV a couple of years before the 1080p set and not seeing anywhere here that we weren't getting "true" HD because it wasn't available yet.

And I remember the first Blu-Ray players and how they aren't even fully compatible with Blu-Ray features now.

Is this the pattern that 3D will repeat? Will the first 3D set buyers come to find out next year is the year it's twice as good, and the year after that they reveal we weren't even watching true 3D yet?
post #2 of 39
The short answer to your question is: "YES, in spades!"

I posted the following on another thread but since it goes a long way in answering your question regarding 3D I thought I would pass it along:

Don't waste your money selling your nearly brand new high-def 2D equipment (you will lose money) and buying new "3D" equipment (it will cost you MORE MONEY, so you would lose twice).

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar, has taken place and to generate a new revenue stream for electronics manufacturers. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival (a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

At this stage of the game stay; away from 3D for home use like the plague!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My advice: Relax and enjoy your existing 1080p/1.3a HDMI high-def equipment. Save your money, think LONG-TERM and enjoy your existing new/nearly brand new equipment (given the economy, you want it to last a good 5 to 8 years).

Regarding 3D =

While I enjoyed the 3D technology used in Avatar, like millions of other consumers in America and around the world who have spent BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS of dollars recently upgrading our entire HD A/V theater systems so that they now meet the 1080p/1.3HDMI HD standard, I refuse to trash-can my new ONKYO PR-SC5507p pre-pro or our SONY BDP S550 Blu-ray player or SONY VPL-VW60 projector so that "the powers that be" can sell me UNPROVEN, NO SINGLE STANDARD, 3D technology that will need an entirely new UNPROVEN 1.4 HDMI format in order to view 3D content rendering nearly everything we own that is 1.3 HDMI useless.

I will let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. I will let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3 HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

As for "3DTV"; just look at the existing poor "quality" of HD programming we are being fed by the likes of Comcast, DISH and Direct TV, etc. Many of the HD NFL play off games just broadcast were not sharp or crisp/very poor and appeared to be 720p at best. People are not going to spend billions of dollars on new 3DTV's while HD broadcasters continually feed them lousy HD signals.

Is 3D cool? Yes, from a technological standpoint, Avatar in 3D is a game changer for theaters. However, ONCE A STANDARD IS FINALLY AGREED UPON (after this next bloody 3D "format war" is finally over which could take another decade), it will cost tens of thousands of dollars (if not more) to replace nearly all of a families existing AV equipment in order to even remotely begin to bring the quality of that 3D theater experience to the average persons home theater and unless people have their heads in the sand, we are in the midst of one of the severest economic downturns since the Great Depression.

As for me; someone feel free to contact me in about ten - fifteen years when the PROVEN, ONE-STANDARD, GLASS-LESS 3D is finally available at a reasonable price. Until then I will sit the 3D, 1.4abcd (1. whatever) HDMI format war out and be content and enjoy the incredible HD system I already have which is bought and paid for.

I can wait 10 - 15 years for this whole 3D mess to finally shake out because I and multitudes of AVS members are tired of being used as beta testers for an industry that continues to treat us like we are nothing but walking dollar signs that can be manipulated into throwing away our gear every 2-3 years for their latest fad. And yes, at this point 3D is just a fad.

In regard to replacing existing A/V gear simply in order to accommodate 3D:

Will I replace my PJ within 5-10 years? Probably, IF the improvement is substantially better than what I have now, which it isn't (much higher lumens, much sharper picture, LED lit, etc..., otherwise what is the point?) and I do not have to mortgage my house to do it. But I refuse to be led around by the nose and manipulated into blowing out perfectly outstanding A/V gear and becoming their free 3D beta tester by the latest A/V 3D FAD to come along.

One more thing; if anyone here on AVS thinks they are going to even begin to have/reproduce the same 3D visual experience viewing AVATAR in your existing home theater that you had at the multi million dollar IMAX 3D theater in the near future or in the future without spending thousands, upon thousands of dollars, “upgrading” their equipment, there is a bridge in Brookline I can sell you real cheap.

As I said above: someone feel free to call me in 10 to 15 years when GLASSLESS 3D is fully developed and fully comes into it's own and those nasty "bugs" have been worked out and it is available at a reasonable price. Until then, have fun all you "early adopter, beta testing, Guinea Pigs". But before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many of you lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of you suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been ”pawned once again” looking at all of their formerly “new and improved”, “latest 3D technology” equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the “electronics powers that be” will decide upon for you to watch 3D… Why? “All the better to sell you stuff my dear.” There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam “videophile” 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune… this is already taking place with some 3D “super glasses” being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war… which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized… etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D.

After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

“I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.”
post #3 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregF View Post

Is this the pattern that 3D will repeat?

Yes, I imagine so. But don't look at it as punishment -- it's an opportunity for you to subsidize new technology that will eventually be of great benefit to the rest of us who hang back waiting for it to mature.
post #4 of 39
HDTV was good before there was much content due to processors that could give SD a better look on HDTV displays. This might be the case in a limited fashion for 3D. I just don't care about 3D right now myself. It will be overused to help improve the experience of poor films.

I feel that it will make gaming an all new and better experience ,however, and this could be the uber in road.

Art
post #5 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jmouse007 View Post

The short answer to your question is: "YES, in spades!"

I posted the following on another thread but since it goes a long way in answering your question regarding 3D I thought I would pass it along:

Don't waste your money selling your nearly brand new high-def 2D equipment (you will lose money) and buying new "3D" equipment (it will cost you MORE MONEY, so you would lose twice).

First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar, has taken place and to generate a new revenue stream for electronics manufacturers. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.

The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.

This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!

Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival (a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.

Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.

At this stage of the game stay; away from 3D for home use like the plague!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My advice: Relax and enjoy your existing 1080p/1.3a HDMI high-def equipment. Save your money, think LONG-TERM and enjoy your existing new/nearly brand new equipment (given the economy, you want it to last a good 5 to 8 years).

Regarding 3D =

While I enjoyed the 3D technology used in Avatar, like millions of other consumers in America and around the world who have spent BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS of dollars recently upgrading our entire HD A/V theater systems so that they now meet the 1080p/1.3HDMI HD standard, I refuse to trash-can my new ONKYO PR-SC5507p pre-pro or our SONY BDP S550 Blu-ray player or SONY VPL-VW60 projector so that "the powers that be" can sell me UNPROVEN, NO SINGLE STANDARD, 3D technology that will need an entirely new UNPROVEN 1.4 HDMI format in order to view 3D content rendering nearly everything we own that is 1.3 HDMI useless.

I will let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. I will let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.

The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.

Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3 HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.

As for "3DTV"; just look at the existing poor "quality" of HD programming we are being fed by the likes of Comcast, DISH and Direct TV, etc. Many of the HD NFL play off games just broadcast were not sharp or crisp/very poor and appeared to be 720p at best. People are not going to spend billions of dollars on new 3DTV's while HD broadcasters continually feed them lousy HD signals.

Is 3D cool? Yes, from a technological standpoint, Avatar in 3D is a game changer for theaters. However, ONCE A STANDARD IS FINALLY AGREED UPON (after this next bloody 3D "format war" is finally over which could take another decade), it will cost tens of thousands of dollars (if not more) to replace nearly all of a families existing AV equipment in order to even remotely begin to bring the quality of that 3D theater experience to the average persons home theater and unless people have their heads in the sand, we are in the midst of one of the severest economic downturns since the Great Depression.

As for me; someone feel free to contact me in about ten - fifteen years when the PROVEN, ONE-STANDARD, GLASS-LESS 3D is finally available at a reasonable price. Until then I will sit the 3D, 1.4abcd (1. whatever) HDMI format war out and be content and enjoy the incredible HD system I already have which is bought and paid for.

I can wait 10 - 15 years for this whole 3D mess to finally shake out because I and multitudes of AVS members are tired of being used as beta testers for an industry that continues to treat us like we are nothing but walking dollar signs that can be manipulated into throwing away our gear every 2-3 years for their latest fad. And yes, at this point 3D is just a fad.

In regard to replacing existing A/V gear simply in order to accommodate 3D:

Will I replace my PJ within 5-10 years? Probably, IF the improvement is substantially better than what I have now, which it isn't (much higher lumens, much sharper picture, LED lit, etc..., otherwise what is the point?) and I do not have to mortgage my house to do it. But I refuse to be led around by the nose and manipulated into blowing out perfectly outstanding A/V gear and becoming their free 3D beta tester by the latest A/V 3D FAD to come along.

One more thing; if anyone here on AVS thinks they are going to even begin to have/reproduce the same 3D visual experience viewing AVATAR in your existing home theater that you had at the multi million dollar IMAX 3D theater in the near future or in the future without spending thousands, upon thousands of dollars, upgrading their equipment, there is a bridge in Brookline I can sell you real cheap.

As I said above: someone feel free to call me in 10 to 15 years when GLASSLESS 3D is fully developed and fully comes into it's own and those nasty "bugs" have been worked out and it is available at a reasonable price. Until then, have fun all you "early adopter, beta testing, Guinea Pigs". But before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many of you lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of you suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.

I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been pawned once again looking at all of their formerly new and improved, latest 3D technology equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.

They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the electronics powers that be will decide upon for you to watch 3D Why? All the better to sell you stuff my dear. There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam videophile 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune this is already taking place with some 3D super glasses being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."

As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D.

After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:

I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:

1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:

2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.

Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.

My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.

So were you telling the early adopters of HDTV to stay away as well? If the early adopters didn't buy in, then we wouldn't have HDTV today. I see your point now---YOU WANT 3D TO JUST GO AWAY. Well, it's not going away. It adds relatively little cost to the new TVs, and many of us are really looking forward to it. Good luck on the glasses free TV. You'll see some low rez blurry implementations of it used for advertising in the near future, but nobody would want to watch a movie with anything approaching that quality. The holographic 3D that we would all want is many years away and will be totally incompatible with current TV technology. The shuttered glasses tech is totally backward compatible. A 3D Blu-ray movie will play in 2D on any standard Blu-ray player in full resolution. The new 3D TVs are going to be the top of the line 2D TVs as well(it will be hard for you to get people to avoid these sets like the plague). You obviously don't want 3D for some reason, and you're free to never get it, but evidently you don't want the rest of us to have it either.
post #6 of 39
Thread Starter 
@fire407, that's the other thing I wonder about. In case you haven't guessed, I'm thinking of replacing my behemoth Sony CRT HDTV finally. *If* the new Panasonic 3D HDTV proves to be the best plasma made, is that a good reason to fork out a painful amount of cash...
post #7 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregF View Post

@fire407, that's the other thing I wonder about. In case you haven't guessed, I'm thinking of replacing my behemoth Sony CRT HDTV finally. *If* the new Panasonic 3D HDTV proves to be the best plasma made, is that a good reason to fork out a painful amount of cash...

I'm in the same boat and thinking about the 58" 3-D Panasonic -- only we are watching a 12yo, 27" CRT. It's not the simple decision for us that those with late-model systems have. I wonder what 007 would do for replacements if someone broke into his home and stole every piece of his system. Could he force himself to buy less than the latest?
post #8 of 39
I'm actually in the same boat as both guys above. The Panasonic plasmas are going to look great based on what I saw at CES. I might also consider going with something like a 73" LCD for sheer size, but I'm leaning more toward plasma because of the wider viewing angle. No matter what else you read here, Panasonic, Sony, Samsung, Vizio, and Toshiba all have sets coming out that do great 3D---and great 2D.
post #9 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregF View Post

@fire407, that's the other thing I wonder about. In case you haven't guessed, I'm thinking of replacing my behemoth Sony CRT HDTV finally. *If* the new Panasonic 3D HDTV proves to be the best plasma made, is that a good reason to fork out a painful amount of cash...

Almost everyone here considers the Pioneer Kuro the best plasma ever made. It does have great blacks. The new Panasonic VT series may approach the Kuro blacks(we won't know until someone reputable here measures them). However the new Pansonics will have faster decaying phosphors and be 3D capable and still be cheaper than the Kuros. So you might consider the new Panasonic a bargain even if it is a painful amount of cash. Some people here are going to be quick to point out the rising black levels on Panasonic plasmas, but it's too early to know if it will be a problem or not.
post #10 of 39
All early adopters - go to your rooms!
Actually, I don't think it will be so bad once the display devices become HDMI 1.4 compliant. The early and most affordable 3D projectors will be only 720p, but a lot of the 3D content will probably not be 1080p anyway. When 1080p 3D content gets plentiful, then it will be time for another, newer display. Adopt away, I say.
post #11 of 39
"Punished"? That may be too strong of a word to describe the reality that "early adopters" experience. There's no question that being early to the game means paying more, but that's the price one pays to be the first one on the block to enjoy a new technology. Sometimes that's a good thing, sometimes it's not.

I was an early adopter in HDTV with the RCA DTC100 and a Sony RPTV that accepted the HD signal over RGB. Did I overpay? Probably, but I've lost much more in the stock market or at the poker table in one day than what I spent on that equiptment. And living in one of the first HD markets, I was watching PBS, Leno, and football in HD while my neighbors were still looking at SD and VHS on their 20" screens. I was also able to recoup some money on the sale of the DTC100 since others wanted it for recording HD. And the large Sony is still being used by a family member, especially for video gaming. I guess I'd still do it again.

An even better example is my Lexicon MC-1 preprocessor with Logic 7. It was expensive sure, but I was enjoying DD and DTS 7.1 from stereo DVD and other sources YEARS before 7.1 caught up. (And the studios still hardly puts out 7.1 titles. My hats off to Lionsgate.) And with a simple analog by-pass mod, it's still in my rack providing excellant PCM passthru on BD, SACD, etc. and great 7.1 processing for all other sound sources like DVD and DirecTV. Considering that I've been using it for well over 10 years, it's been worth every penny.

As long as 3D looks good, does a great job with 2D, and isn't too expensive, I'll probably early adopt again. But it better be LED technology too.
post #12 of 39
It really comes down to the time value of money. The theaters aren't going to back off of this. The reason Avatar could be the monster success it has been *is because those 3D-capable theaters were already there to show it* --and believe me, that cost a lot of money to get to that point where there enough 3d-capable theaters to allow achieving the highest-grossing picture of all time. And from the film people's pov, a large part of the incentive for 3D is to provide a value-add experience that can't be had at home, and cannot be pirated at the same volumes. So from that perspective I doubt it will be a "fad" --the film and theater people have too much incentive and too much sunk cost already to back off on this.

So there will be more and more 3D movies in the theaters, where you will see them. And then the question will become "how happy are you to not be able to see it at home in 3D?" People who are happy to wait will always get better for cheaper by doing so. Welcome to the history of technology. It isn't new.

But not everyone is happy to wait, and that all comes down to individual preferences, priorities, and resources.

But I don't think we'll see "glassless 3d" in 10 years at home. Yeah, it's technically possible but anytime a CE type starts talking about "at least 10 years" you can pretty much substitute the nuclear fusion boys who've been predicting fusion as "20 years out" for more than 20 years now.

I've got two (supposedly) 3d-capable TVs right now. Didn't buy them for that reason tho, and wouldn't have. Buy a TV when you need a new TV, and get the best features available at the time --that's my strategy. Likely your next TV will be 3d-capable, but it is up to you if you rush your replacement schedule because of it. I didn't, and wouldn't, but still here I am with two (again, supposedly --hasn't put it to the test yet) 3d-capable TVs.

P.S. My first HDTV was a 1080i 2001 55" CRT (wouldn't do 720p natively even, and didn't have a built-in tuner), sold in 2004 when we moved cross country and didn't want to move that 300lb monster. Sold it to the real estate agent who sold our house for us.
post #13 of 39
P.S. My first HDTV was a 1080i 2001 55" CRT (wouldn't do 720p natively even, and didn't have a built-in tuner), sold in 2004 when we moved cross country and didn't want to move that 300lb monster. Sold it to the real estate agent who sold our house for us.

What brand of TV was that? I did not know there was a CRT TV bigger than 40 inches ever made.

Thanks.
post #14 of 39
Early adopters of new technology always will pay a premium and get less features/performance than those that wait a few years. My own examples include:
  • Sony 1st generation Betamax $1100
  • Pioneer 1st generation Laserdisc $1100
  • Toshiba 1st generation DVD $500
  • Panasonic Video Camera and seperate 'portable' VCR $2000
  • Sony G70 HD CRT front projector (capable of 1080p built in 1998) $20,000

As we all know technology evolves very fast and it's never ever a good investment from a dollars and cents (or Euros or Pounds or ?) standpoint. You just have to decide at what price point you are willing and able to jump in based on how much enjoyment you expect to get back in return for your investment.

As for 3D, I expect the additional cost for a 3D capable flat panel display to be very small when introduced in a replacement for today's 2D top-of-the-line models. 3D will initially only be available in such top-tier models and remember Samsung and Sony are already selling their 2D models for $2K (MSRP) and up for their top-tier LCD models with screen sizes starting at only 46 inches (models with LED backlight, zone dimming, etc.). It will take a couple of years for 3D to work its way down into less expensive mid-range and finally budget models. As for 3D sources the Sony Blu-ray "3D ready" players have just started shipping with models starting at only $179 MSRP so it really doesn't add much to the cost for even an entry-level BD player. Also adding HDMI 1.4 to AV Receivers will be essentially a no incremental cost enhancment for next generation models. Thus if you are already planning to replace your HDTV (i.e., with a top-tier model), AVR and BD player then wait a few months and you will be able to buy 3D capable models for little more than you would spend today for 2D models. In fact recent reports indicate that the BD Spec. will perhaps permit use of a AVR that only supports HDMI 1.3 by requiring BD players and compatible 3D HDTVs to support a forced 3D mode user setting thus eliminating the need for the HDMI 1.4 feature to negotiate which 3D mode to use (note that HDMI 1.3 hardware has the bandwidth to support the dual 1080p/24 video steams as being used by Blu-ray for the 3D recordings).
post #15 of 39
When it comes to early adopters, I want to be one, but I do plenty of research prior to actually spending money... to at least minimize the pain of being obsolete. Case in point is Blu-Ray. When Blu-Ray was coming to market, so was HD-DVD. I knew we were in for another VHS-Beta battle, so I looked into the technology of both to see which appeared to be superior. When I saw that data density was quite a bit higher per layer on Blu-Ray, I was immediately siding towards that technology. It wasn't that I was a Sony fan, as I've always had the opinion Sony was over-priced, in fact if I was a fan of any player, it would have been Toshiba, as it was the brand of our first big screen and our first HDTV. I didn't let brand loyalty be a consideration. When I looked at players, I saw that much of what people were ranting and raving about HD-DVD was related to the software being used. Knowing that software COULD be updated if the device allowed for it was a big consideration. This pointed me in a big direction towards the Sony Playstation 3, as it is essentially a computer with a Blu-Ray drive. As I was pointed in this direction, I saw XBox 360 had an option for an external HD-DVD drive. I thought about it and realized it was only a half-assed attempt to compete with the PS3's ability to be a gaming machine as well as a HDTV disc player. After long and hard look at stand-alone machines and comparing the technology in both the XBox 360 and the PS3, I made my decision to go for the PS3 with the 60 GB hard drive, right as that model was on not highly publicized clearance sale (newer device with larger hard drive but less hardware capability being released). I have been happy with my choice and although I was a relative early adopter of Blu-Ray, I have not regretted my decision, even though it was several years ago. With each new feature that has been announced coming to Blu-Ray, my PS3 has been capable. I view this research and decision as minimizing the risk of being an early adopter.

I have never been a major fan of 3D movies... I always found them gimicky. I also don't really see in traditional 3D anyway, due to my eyes not working together very well (I'm 20/20 in each eye, but they don't work together.) I do appreciate the ability to have excellent depth perception, often better than others that have eyes that work the way they are supposed to. So the thought of a 3D TV is not high on my list... BUT... I'm wanting to replace my TVs in the next year or two. When I am closer to purchase, if everything else is equal, I may chose a 3D TV, as others may benefit. I wouldn't spend more than $100 more for it though.
post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregF View Post

So, I'm looking back at my experience with HDTV, and the rest of us, and avsforum.com, back to the first people who had HDTV's, and had nothing to watch, through the people that got them a couple of years after that, and found they really needed newer and better equipment later. Heck some of us got in well past the early adopter stage only to find out we weren't watching true HD because it wasn't in full 1080p all of a sudden. I remember doing all my research on my TV a couple of years before the 1080p set and not seeing anywhere here that we weren't getting "true" HD because it wasn't available yet.

And I remember the first Blu-Ray players and how they aren't even fully compatible with Blu-Ray features now.

Is this the pattern that 3D will repeat? Will the first 3D set buyers come to find out next year is the year it's twice as good, and the year after that they reveal we weren't even watching true 3D yet?

They will pay more for their 3DTV than those that jump in later. That is always the case of the early adopter. The tech means more than the money to them.

3D is really an extension of HD. Are they going to increase the resolution of HD past 1080? Will they add Deep Color? My answer to both is no.

So what changes could be made in 3D that will improve on the tech in the next few years?

1. The glasses - they need to get the % of light passing through them to the eye up (Active Shutter Glasses). Today, it can be as low as 15%. That means 85% of the light intensity is lost. But this doesn't affect the expensive display. You can buy better glasses as they are introduced.

2. Refresh rate per eye - currently there are 3 refresh rates announced/in use:

PDP + DLP = 120 Hz/ 60Hz per eye
LCD = 240Hz/120 Hz per eye
LCD = 480Hz/240 Hz per eye

The refresh rate just has to be high enough so that flicker will not appear in the 3D images. IMO, I don't see that as an issue. Unless you see flicker at 60Hz which is what the USA's TV standard has been for decades.

3D BD will use the AVC MVC format for encoding. This has been around for a while. They are already encoding 3D BD's for Samsung's 3D rollout in Europe - Monsters vs. Aliens which will be bundled in either their 3DTV or 3D BD player purchase. According to Technicolor, the replication prococess to press a 3D BD is no different than a normal BD. It is all in the authoring. Can a glitch happen? Sure. Humans are involved in the process.

"Broadcast" 3D will use different 3D formats than BD. Both Side by Side and Over/Under have been choosen and the 3D will be Half HD because they need to use the same bandwidth as a normal HD channel. BD will be the only Full HD 3D. It will be up to the display CEMs to make their 3DTV compatible with the different 3D formats. These formats have been around for years.
post #17 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ennui View Post

P.S. My first HDTV was a 1080i 2001 55" CRT (wouldn't do 720p natively even, and didn't have a built-in tuner), sold in 2004 when we moved cross country and didn't want to move that 300lb monster. Sold it to the real estate agent who sold our house for us.

What brand of TV was that? I did not know there was a CRT TV bigger than 40 inches ever made.

Thanks.

Oh, it was a Mits. CRT RPTV (WS-55819). I'm not entirely sure why those were called CRT just like the glass screen type are called CRT, but they were. I guess the RGB guns still had glass lenses, so perhaps that's why.
post #18 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by georule View Post

Oh, it was a Mits. CRT RPTV. I'm not entirely sure why those were called CRT just like the glass screen type are called CRT, but they were. I guess the RGB guns still had glass lenses, so perhaps that's why.

They were called CRT RPTV's because they contained 3 special high output single color 7" CRTs (RGB) and used convergence to lay the three different images, one on top of the other. The images were backwards on the CRTs then projected onto a mirror which turned forwards and projected the images through the screen to you the viewer. (or were they upside down, then turned right side up - can't remember )

Some used 8" CRTs. Professional models from Barco used 9" CRTs.

The lenses could be all optical plastic, OP and glass combo or all glass.
post #19 of 39
Early adopters.....

I guess I am one.

1985 Laserdisc
1999 DVD
2000 HDTV
2006 HD-DVD and Bluray
2010 - 3d????
post #20 of 39
Wow, I've never heard anyone on AVS say they'd wait 10-15 years to adopt new tech...I'd still be playing Super Nintendo and Sega Saturn right now!
post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ikari Warrior View Post

Wow, I've never heard anyone on AVS say they'd wait 10-15 years to adopt new tech...I'd still be playing Super Nintendo and Sega Saturn right now!

Early adopters are the canary in the coal mine, and the deep pockets funding everybody else's cost effective fun a few years later. It is an honorable position in society, but not always comfortable, and not everyone is cut out to do it. The key, it seems to me, is in recognizing when you're doing it and being okay with that.

I'd hate to do it and not realize I was doing it. . .
post #22 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

They were called CRT RPTV's because they contained 3 special high output single color 7" CRTs (RGB) and used convergence to lay the three different images, one on top of the other. The images were backwards on the CRTs then projected onto a mirror which turned forwards and projected the images through the screen to you the viewer. (or were they upside down, then turned right side up - can't remember )

Some used 8" CRTs. Professional models from Barco used 9" CRTs.

The lenses could be all optical plastic, OP and glass combo or all glass.

Thanks for the history lesson. I thought it had to do with the three RGB thingies. I saw ours opened up once for service, so I knew they were there and got a look at them. It seems to me those sets weren't (mostly, at least) called that at the time. . . it was when LCD and DLP RPTV came along that (my memory tells me at least) they started being referred to (as "CRT") that way to make the distinction. At the time it was mostly just "RPTV" as the way they were popularly talked about. And now that they've largely passed off into history, I guess it isn't surprising there are some people who get confused by the reference.
post #23 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrickMcKaha View Post

All early adopters - go to your rooms!
Actually, I don't think it will be so bad once the display devices become HDMI 1.4 compliant. The early and most affordable 3D projectors will be only 720p, but a lot of the 3D content will probably not be 1080p anyway. When 1080p 3D content gets plentiful, then it will be time for another, newer display. Adopt away, I say.

Well, it's early days on the PR spin wars, but I saw Sony recently claiming you don't actually need hdmi 1.4 for "full 1080p to each eye". 1080p24fps to each eye bandwidth reqs fits within the 1.3 spec. . .and the step up to 120hz or 240hz is happening on the TV, on the other side of the hdmi cable bottleneck, so no problem (according to Sony anyway).

But I'd take all such statements with a huge grain of salt until there are shipping units on the market being banged on by the kind of talented folks we have here at AVS to uncover reality.
post #24 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by georule View Post

Oh, it was a Mits. CRT RPTV (WS-55819). I'm not entirely sure why those were called CRT just like the glass screen type are called CRT, but they were. I guess the RGB guns still had glass lenses, so perhaps that's why.

I am surprised it weighed 300 lbs. My Sony 34 inch XBR960 weighs 200 lbs and is a real handful for two people to move.
post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by georule View Post

Early adopters are the canary in the coal mine, and the deep pockets funding everybody else's cost effective fun a few years later. It is an honorable position in society, but not always comfortable, and not everyone is cut out to do it. The key, it seems to me, is in recognizing when you're doing it and being okay with that.

I'd hate to do it and not realize I was doing it. . .


You know... you pretty much hit the nail on the head with that one...

The bottom line is that if you're jumping in the 3D swimming pool in 2010 or even 2011, don't be surprised if there is a great white shark in there swimming around with you. In other words.... understand the risks involved.

Personally, I really want to get a 3D projector, but I have to wait for one that has hdmi 1.4, that I know for sure works fine with PS3 games in 3D, as well as Blu Ray movies in 3D. Until I know of a projector that has been confirmed to work with both, and work well, I'm not buying. There are a few 3D projectors out there already, but as far as I'm aware, none of them have hdmi 1.4 .
post #26 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

You know... you pretty much hit the nail on the head with that one...

The bottom line is that if you're jumping in the 3D swimming pool in 2010 or even 2011, don't be surprised if there is a great white shark in there swimming around with you. In other words.... understand the risks involved.

Personally, I really want to get a 3D projector, but I have to wait for one that has hdmi 1.4, that I know for sure works fine with PS3 games in 3D, as well as Blu Ray movies in 3D. Until I know of a projector that has been confirmed to work with both, and work well, I'm not buying. There are a few 3D projectors out there already, but as far as I'm aware, none of them have hdmi 1.4 .

I don't think it would be a shark---perhaps a dolphin. Even if 3D went away overnight, you would still have the top of the line HDTVs for this year at a slight premium cost. I'm sure the projector makers are also scrambling now to implement 3D as soon as they can. There are a lot more variables when it comes to projectors, so I'm sure there will be a lot of options from the various manufacterers. For example, there will be solutions where you would use two projectors on continuously with polarized glasses, or something like LG announced where you have basically two projectors in one box. And there will also be some upcoming technology where it's a single projector using high refresh rates with the shuttered glasses. The biggest variable for projectors, just like today, will be how much do you want to spend. The new LG supposedly will have HDMI 1.3, but I bet by the time it is released the specs will have changed to HDMI 1.4. I do agree with you---don't buy anything without HDMI 1.4 after this summer.
post #27 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by fire407 View Post

don't buy anything without HDMI 1.4 after this summer.

If you're interested in 3D, don't buy anything without hdmi 1.4 starting now, never mind Summer. 1.4 is an absolute requirement... at least thats the speculation.
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post

If you're interested in 3D, don't buy anything without hdmi 1.4 starting now, never mind Summer. 1.4 is an absolute requirement... at least thats the speculation.

The display manufacturers know more than we do about the 3D BD spec, HDMI, and all that jazz. I seriously doubt a CE would release a new 3D-Ready display (today) that wouldn't be compatible with 3D BD players, especially one manufactured by themselves. The CE's can be dumb and do some shady things sometimes, but not that dumb.
post #29 of 39
I'm seriously looking at a Panasonic 58VT25 this fall (pending black level issues), and I do expect to be "punished" for early adoption in the sense that my first 3D TV will certainly have minor bugs and imperfections it wouldn't have if I were to buy my first 3D TV four or five years from now.

In particular I don't expect it to do proper 24p 3D; it will have 60Hz rather than the preferred 72Hz per eye. The glasses may be heavier and less elegant than future models. There will be other shortcomings I can't anticipate.

OTOH it's either imperfect 3D now, or no 3D now, so on reflection the "punishment" doesn't seem terribly severe.
post #30 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by walt73 View Post

I'm seriously looking at a Panasonic 58VT25 this fall (pending black level issues), and I do expect to be "punished" for early adoption in the sense that my first 3D TV will certainly have minor bugs and imperfections it wouldn't have if I were to buy my first 3D TV four or five years from now.

Most of the "punishment" will come in the form of you having paid a higer price than those that jump in after you

Quote:


In particular I don't expect it to do proper 24p 3D; it will have 60Hz rather than the preferred 72Hz per eye. The glasses may be heavier and less elegant than future models. There will be other shortcomings I can't anticipate.

It is possible that there will not be a 2:3 pulldown issue with the VT25's. It depends on how they deal with the data being sent by the 3D BD player.

If the display accepts the 3D BD "block" frame at 24 FPS, then multiples it by 5 up to the 120Hz refresh rate of the panel, then splits the L & R frames and displays them at 60 Hz per eye - in that order - there will be no frame judder.

Here is what the "block" frame looks like

http://hdguru.com/3d-hdtv-and-hdmi-explained/1336/

Quote:


OTOH it's either imperfect 3D now, or no 3D now, so on reflection the "punishment" doesn't seem terribly severe.

Agree - minor issues with the main issue being cost which is normal for new tech. A 3DTV is still a high quality HDTV.
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