Originally Posted by Jmouse007
The answer to your question is simple = you are screwed... Think the HD DVD fiasco only on steroids.
First off; 3D is nothing but a FAD at this point, specifically designed to get warm bodies into theaters, which with the success of Avatar and Alice has taken place. Secondly and this is VERY important, 3D technology for home use is in it's infancy, I dare say embryonic phase at this point.
A fad? In 2009, 3D earned $1B at the box office and Avatar had little to do with that because it was released so late in the year.
You think that ESPN, Discovery, DirecTV, Comcast and others would back a fad?
Yes 3D has been born for consumers home. It has a better "birthing" then HDTV did in late 1998 and early 1999.
The 3D sets/equipment that will be sold are technologically primitive at this point. The manufacturers will charge a very hefty premium for this new 3D equipment and will use the early adopter/3D suckers as their "beta testing" Guinea Pigs. Over TIME these folks will find a lot of the flaws and problems that exist with this infant 3D tech because it will not work as promised. They will complain as early adopters always do, the manufacturers will look at these complaints (along with those from the broadcasters who try to implement 3D for the masses) and make corrections.
Do you do any research before you present your opinion? There is an approx 25% premium for 3DTV's over comparible HDTV's. You want to compare that to the premium in 1999 for an HDTV over a SDTV? In the demo's that have been show in stores - 3D works just as it does in theaters. 3D is the same as HD. There is good 3D/HD and there is bad 3D/HD. You think every BD released has a 5 star rating for PQ?
Many of the "complaints" are not with 3D but the HDTV's themselves. And there is a compromise here. We get Full HD per eye (3D BD) - we have to have active shutter glasses. it also allows CBL and SAT to ramp up 3D content quickly because it is compatible with their delivery systems albiet at half HD sper eye.n Hmmm ...half HD. Isn't 720P half HD? looks pretty good to me.
This process will repeat itself for around 8 to 15 years = 3 to 5 generations of 3D technology upgrades until the manufacturers finally get 3D working properly/to the satisfaction of the majority of people using it. Then (IF, and it is a huge "IF") 3D technology using GLASSES even takes off, a 3D quality "standard" will finally be established, the masses will buy into the system, prices will eventually come down BIG TIME! If you "MUST HAVE 3D", THAT IS THE TIME TO BUY... AFTER THE SUCKERS/Beta testers have spent their money working out ALL of the very real "kinks" inherent in 3D using glasses: I have already seen manufacturers trying to hawk phony "super deluxe" 3D glasses for $300!
Why do I get the feeling that you are not a proponent of 3D?
Given all of the above factors, you are looking at 8 to 15 years before you should even begin to think about possibly jumping on the 3D band wagon. Why such a long, indefinite, indefinable time frame? Because no one has any idea what kind of problems are going present themselves, how quickly or slowly 3D will even develop, be adopted or if the whole 3D for home use format will be dead on arrival; a very real possibility given the fact that we are in a world-wide economic recession possibly bordering on a depression and people do not have money to waste on "new and improved" 3D equipment when they have perfectly fine and working 2D 1080p/ 1.3 HDMI high def equipment that they recently spent a fortune purchasing.
LOL! YOU can wait 8 to 15 years. I won't. I don't even know if i will be alive in 15 years. I am almost 59.
Forget about all of the ooh, aah 3D "hype" coming from the manufacturers! A person would have to be out of their mind to buy a 3D TV or 3D front projector this early in the game, and make no mistake it is a GAME designed by the manufacturers to get the consumer to look with disdain on what these same folks had sold them on being the epitome/end all/be all in HD less than a year ago so that they will throw it all away to buy 3D.
There's that feel again.
Let the early adopter "suckers" spend THEIR money beta testing this 3D technology. Let THEM throw THEIR money down the toilet on a supposedly "new and improved," NO SINGLE STANDARD 3D = shutter glasses, non shutter glasses, polarized glasses, non polarized glasses, red and green glasses, non red and green glasses, and UNPROOVEN 1.4 HDMI format.
So let me ask you this. If I look back through your post history - I should find a post similiar to this one where you are telling people they are suckers for buying HDMI 1.3 receivers that will decode the HD audio formats - new technology - unproven - because 1.3 was unproven and that they should stay with DD5.1 or DTS. Right? Ever hear the word; "Luddite" before?
The upcoming 3D format wars (with millions of "early adopter" casualties left in it's wake with billions of dollars worth of now worthless technology they can't even sell on Craigslist when everything finally shakes out a decade from now) are going to make HD/Bluray fiasco look like a walk in the park.
There is NO 3D format war. There are multiple 3D formats JUST LIKE there are multiple HDTV formats and multiple HD audio formats.
Remember: SONY, ONKYO, Denon, Yamaha, etc... haven't even worked out all of the 1.3a HDMI "bugs" yet on gear they have already sold and they expect us to throw it ALL AWAY for an entirely new and unproven 1.4 HDMI format that they themselves will no longer support as soon as the "new and improved", equally untested 1.5 HDMI format comes along.
So everyone with 1.3 receivers has a problem? Is that right?
Before you take the 3d plunge, I would advise you to remember the lessons of the HD/Bluray format war when many people lost small and large fortunes after the powers that be decided that HD was worthless and they pulled their entire support for the format in behalf of Bluray, after they had sold you all that stuff, leaving all of the suckers (in their eyes) holding the bag.
Once again there is NO 3D format war. The only thing that would change the landscpe of 3D today is if Autostereoscopic 3D displays (glasses free 3D) became a reality overnite. I got a better chance of winning the lottery then that happening.
High drama is no substitution for facts.
I can envision 3 to 8 years from now, the same thing taking place regarding 3D; many AVS members sitting around, like they did with their HD equipment and software, with utter dismay on their faces and anger, realizing they have been ”pawned once again” looking at all of their formerly “new and improved”, “latest 3D technology” equipment, and glasses that have suddenly been declared outdated and relegated to the dust bin by the electronics corporations who are ready to sell you on their latest fad.
So here we are at AVS, probably the most informed and knowledge people involved in HD and 3D and all of a sudden, mass hysteria strikes and everyone goes stupid. Just a minute . . .
They will have draws upon draws FULL of different kinds of 3D glasses: polarized, shutter, red, green, etc because there will not be just one way the “electronics powers that be” will decide upon for you to watch 3D… Why? “All the better to sell you stuff my dear.” There will be low end 3D glasses for the masses and then there will be high end, scam “videophile” 3D glasses that will cost you a fortune… this is already taking place with some 3D “super glasses” being marketed at $300! (Oh, joy, think MONSTER CABLES only for 3D glasses!). Most of this stuff purchased with your hard-earned money will end up in land fills or being blown out on Craigslist for pennies on the dollar because they will say: "Those things are useless and no longer needed because this is the new and improved way we are going to do 3D from now on."
Well, some are on the never ending quest to upgrade and better their equipment. And you think so little of them.
As for me, and others here on AVS who have seen this script/scam/game before; no thanks, we will sit this 3D FAD out (like many of us wisely did during the HD/Bluray format mess.) and when the war is all over (contrary to popular opinion, there will be a 3D war… which system shutter glasses/non shutter glasses/polarized/non polarized… etc, because their are BILLIONS of dollars at stake.) and things finally shake out, then and only then will we bite the bullet and upgrade our A/V equipment to accommodate 3D, IF IT IS EVERN AROUND.
OK - you don't want 3D. And there are probably others who also don't want it. But then again, there will be those who do want 3D.
You know what really pisses me off? When someone tells ME how to spend MY money.
After posting the above on another web site I received the following, confirming what I have said:
“I've got 30 years behind me in the CE business, have written for a trade magazine for 7 years, and am what one would describe as an early adopter. I couldn't agree with you more. New tech is embraced by the marketplace when one of two things happen:
1) Consumers are forced into a change due to the retirement of an existing format, or:
2) There's a compelling case for the new format on its merits alone.
Neither is the case with 3DTV. It's cool to be sure, but no one but the manufacturers were clamoring for it. It's nothing but a profit recovery strategy at this point because virtually no one is making money on TV sets any more; making or selling them.
My guess is 3D will be most effective if used as a way for movie companies to keep people in the theatres, and I for one would stick to that. It would be a key differentiator between the theater and increasingly sophisticated home theater experience, a fact that will be increasingly more important as cinema ticket prices increase at the same time very big screen home theater hits true mass market price levels.”
Oh great! I am going to see this post in other forums. How wondeful.