Originally Posted by Joseph Dubin
Then don't add the point about a sales spike when the discussion is about how much overall interest a new innovation generates."as for sales falling by 3%...in this economy( of the last 12 months) I honestly would have thought the drop would have been much more than that"
According to your past statements, consumer spending would not be dropping when it came to television sets. Now you're surprised it hasn't dropped more than just three percent? That goes completely opposite what you have been stating.
You kept on insisting that people in general replace the HD sets they purchased just two or three years ago because prices have been falling so much and they want to have the latest technology - just like you do. And that would be the stimulus that would make 3D a financial success with the mainstream.
Hold the phone
I said that the trend was not following the way you had stated the shape the economy was in..ie..the mainstream you had pointed to
As you recall I have asked you several times how you explain the phenomenon of sales not following this mainstream economy that you have been posting for many pages
I have never insisted that people replaced sets they bought 2-3 years ago. Where did I say that?
They have replaced them to be sure in some cases...and many in these forums have for sure
But you say I said pretty much said everyone had replaced their current flat panels sets with newer flat panels in the last 2-3 years?
I think you are confusing the assumptions you are making about what I mean vs what I actually stated
To be clear ...I think the current 3D technology will sell to the high end buyer at a rate of no more than 4-5% of the total sales of flat panels
I don't think they will get a larger share of the market until there are models in lower product tiers
Generally speaking I don't think anyone who doesn't have a blu ray player will be a candidate for one of these
Do I think the economy will effect sales?...absolutely....will it have anywhere the negative impact that you state it will
I don't think so
If flat panels are only off by 3% this yea when 2010 is said and done....I would say they are by far outpacing the economic when unemployment is still hovering at 10% in most areas of the country
As far as the spike in LED..it was just the "next thing"...and it was available in a much wider product range of TV's than 3D is. Heck in a few months the 3rd tier brands had LED models
Like I said before..though I dont have any data to back it up...I think there is a substantial share in the low end/3rd tier models
If 3D even wants a change at high volume it has to play in that arena
Where its positioned now..I think..the most they can hope for is perhaps 5%.
Joe...that study that you posted that estimated out of 32 million..there will only be 1.2 million 3D sets, or a little less than 4%
Its makes perfect sense to me ...and I think it was that ratio even before 3D hit the scene
I think one of the areas where we differ in thought is I don't place 100% on the success of this on the economic situation
And I make assumption in that statement as I have not seen you state directly about a percentage
Just what I infer from your statements
...and my point in the mention of the sales spike was to speak to volume of units..
The consistency of volume that the retailer desires is another subject
Just to be clear on another point;..I have a desire for new technology..but before this latest TV( and I mentioned the low $$ for that purchase)..I can't recall buying anything the first year it was released...HDTV, Bluray etc ..etc.I typically am a year 2-3 adopter. Even now I am not going to invest in a HDMI 1.4 capable preamp
And related to this...I also think there is a percentage of people that really don't have a desire for new technology...or perhaps I should say its off their radar
Case in point...they still sell VCR/DVD combination machines. In fact Panasonic had( perhaps still does) a blu ray/VHS combination player