3D Television - Fad or Here To Stay? - Page 56

Warren,

Again, one has nothing to do with the other.

A sales spike is of less importance to the seller as is maintaining at least a steady level of sales - and, as reported by the industry, the sale of LCDs dropped by three percent this past fiscal year.

Oh, and congratulations on breaking my record.

I still think No Glasses will be when 3D takes Off in the market... http://www.wirelessdesignmag.com/Sho...&CommonCount=0

I agree. The article you posted got me quite excited. Of course, it's still years down the road and then will be quite expensive initially, as would be any product. But I like the idea and by that time many would be ready to purchase a new HD set, unlike now where most are relatively just a few years old.

3 stages
Back to Walmart and selling 3D. I think people expect Vizio to sell at cost when first showing the product and not at msrp. When in actuality it takes months for the cost to drop from msrp to a bargain price Walmart is known for.

So you see there is three stages to the Walmart factor and they are:
1.) The product is sold from names like Panasonic and sold in dedicated electronics stores.
2.) The product is sold by names like Vizio and sold in Walmart, but at MSRP prices.
3.) The product in Walmart drops below MSRP and at bargain price.

2 years time
Once 3.) is there it takes some time for the customer to notice it exists. They don't watch the price of the Walmart vizio every day to know it's at a low cost. So when Walmart drops the price of 3D TV's below MSRP it will take some time for the general public who don't read flyers or websites for bargains to see the new price, Months even, maybe a full year.

So to truly sell the Walmart effect on 3D TV's your looking at a time far past when 1.) sold it or it was announced as a product. Maybe 2 years or 2 and a half years. Then you can get a survey ready and see how the general public likes it. Then that survey will be worth buying.

Poll
Nobody who has money will buy something if it's only value is to the upper class and worthless to the lower class. So any poll that draws only surveys from Rich people before the Walmart effect has no real worth. So many gadgets that are awesome and weirdly novel are worthless to the elite rich who can buy them because it's so far removed from the poor class who will buy a product enmass. Look at engadget every day to see what I mean.

To be honest, I have no idea what it may or may not do for Onkyo. Onkyo on one hand looks like they are trying to distant their self from some of their bad past reputation. Like with firmware updates, in the past they really made them difficult for the consumer to obtain a needed firmware update without having them done by a service center, and now they are one of the better manufacturers for sending out firmware upgrades for some of their new products. And yet they always seem to still manage to screw something up. Like with their refusal to release a update to allow the possible use of Audyssey Pro on their PR-SC5507 pre-pro. Although they 'say' they are going to allow it for it's replacement, the Pr-SC5508.

I really was surprised that they they did not offer the full 11.2 option on some of their newer higher end products that recently came out, in order to compete with the 4810 and 4311 Denons that do. Especially when in the past, Onkyo more often than not, tried to outdo everyone else and many times was usually the first to offer anything new.


I will say one thing, I also have a older Onkyo Integra Research TX-DS939 5.1 AVR, and that thing is built like a tank! I have not seen anything from them since those came out, that has been built anywhere near as good as that is.

Excellent point on why Walmart is able to sell consumer electronic items so low. It is, of course, not a matter of Walmart dictating to industry leaders like Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, etc. the price their products have to sell as they do with smaller companies which literally need Walmart's business for survival. It is instead that new models from top flight corporations only makes Walmart's shelves one or two years later after stores like Best Buy, etc. clear their inventories for newer ones. No different from year-end clearances by retailers in general except after these are discontinued, Walmart and other liquidator-type chains will still carry them. On-line, it is different since Walmart does carry newer models but at prices similar to those at other stores.

I'm just a bit confused about what you say regarding polls. Are you saying wealthier consumers won't buy new types of products since they might fade away quickly and will therefore wait until they see them also embraced by the general public? Or am I mis-reading the point you are making?

Don't forget Wal-Mart often has a low cost 'loss leader' prominently on display in many of the products they offer, knowing that it will hook you in, and then lead you to the more expensive items of the same type that they have, and that you would really rather have. And in many cases, Wal-Mart is also selling those better items for no less than other vendors, and sometime they sell them for even for more. That is why they put the ultra low cost microwave oven on the outside end of the isle, knowing full well that it many times will also bring the customers into the middle of the isle to buy the much higher priced microwaves. A lot of people wrongly assume that just because it's a Wal-Mart, that they also will have the lowest possible selling price for every item they sell.

Hi Johnia,

You can also add having a limited supply of that ultra low cost microwave oven so they can sell out quickly. A practice not just limited to Walmart , this also causes people (after finding out what they wanted was no longer available ) to buy something else rather than not getting anything at all.

We have a local chain here called "National Wholesale Liquidators" - not a big outfit like Walmart but on the same idea. They sell cheap items including inexpensive sets from companies like Coby, Haer , Apex along with Toshiba and Sharp. Those from the name brands are advertised as selling much less than elsewhere. Of course that's only because they are also discontinued models that once had sold at the comparison price as indicated. Still, not bad when one wants to buy a toaster oven, coffee maker or floor standing fan. I also save a few dollars buying spindles of TDK or Maxell DVD-Rs there compared to Best Buy, Radio Shack, etc.

I will give the example of the segway. People can afford it but don't buy it because Joe Public considers the segway a toy.

Or SSD hard drives. If you buy a family member who doesn't know about computers a new computer do you ask them if they want a SSD hard drive or do you just accept the basic sata hard drive and give it to them? I would suspect the question of if they want SSD would never come up and they would get the standard sata.

Or look at the PS3 and Xbox 360. They are as powerful as some small phones now, but Sony and Microsoft say it is good enough for a few years more before even they announce a new model. Is it because they can't afford to sell a new model? No they can afford it, but the public doesn't need it and the status symbol of a newer model isn't appealing to them yet. Also the developers and public PS3 owner say they don't want a new PS4 yet, so Sony listens to them even though they can afford a better model.

The point I'm making is there is what Money can buy, and what people will get with that money. If people assume the product is for a lower standard then they accept it even if they have the money for a higher standard.
Until the higher standard is commonplace many times the product will be ignored by those who can afford it.

3D TV fits into that picture as a commodity that may afford better quality under some circumstances but is not publically viable so those with money don't know if it's a buy or a expensive useless lark.

Edit,

If it was publically viable then wouldn't the TV stores show the TV's in 3D mode with glasses ready to test them? Instead they hide the glasses and have the TV's unable to be viewed. Because they assume these are not for the general public so they do this. If regular people could buy it then they would display it proudly.

LOL...please give me the links/proof to the fact that
1. The Samsungs did not buzz..or have any complaints before 2009
I can provide more information on that if you doubt there was complaints before 2009

2. be very specific ..rather than generic on what I am exaggerating..please enlighten me

Actually I did quite a bit of reading in the official Samsung FPT-5884 thread before I bought mine in 2008...the buzzing is mentioned there as well, from years back

Warren

LOL..thank you..

I didn't say a sales spike was any more important...I was just pointing out that there was one

Completely different

as for sales falling by 3%...in this economy( of the last 12 months) I honestly would have thought the drop would have been much more than that


Warren

I actually agree with you...somewhat..on something imagine that!!!

People do assume Walmart has the lowest prices...and overall they likely do

However...there are many items past a certain level of quality that you can't get there....as I mentioned before the nicest Samsung( im my market) is a C630
I would call that Low/Midrange product...
Their everyday price was lower than Best Buy's. However best buy has had that TV on sale for the last 30days and it is now priced lower than Walmart

Warren

And..as I recall their current line up is not anywhere near where the price of that price was either

I have a similar situation with a Pioneer Elite VSX47TX...its stored now..however it is a tank. I also have an SC07. Not nearly the the build of the older unit...and made in Malaysia as opposed to Japan( like the Onkyo units)
Selling price was 35% less( not even factored for inflation) for the SC07

But to my ears...the newer peices are designed for Home theater and are not as musical as the older units
Well...as for the Pioneer anyway. I have not heard the older Onkyo piece...the newer Onkyo's(IMO) are not very musical

Warren

Where are you located?

They don't display them this way in the markets I am most often in....Columbus Ohio...Dallas/Ft Worth Texas

In fact..it can be the exact opposite. They have them too close together so the glasses get confused about which 3D emitter it needs to be picking up
A few times the salesman has had to turn off a neighboring TV because of the dueling emitters kept turning the glasses on and off during a viewing


Warren

Vizios line of 3D

http://reviews.cnet.com/flat-panel-t...contentBody;1r

I think the 72" was dead before it met production...though at $3499 MSRP( and likely highly discounted from that in the real world) I am certain they would have had takers just for the screen size aspect of it

Looks like Target will carry this line as well...though just like amazon vendors it says "coming soon"

can you say "Late to the party"...not a good move to now have product out ...especially your flagship product..not in stores before November

Who knows though..they may come out with some retail pricing that makes the others take a few steps back
We have the CES show coming shortly where the next big things are already going to be shown in Jan 2011
I see that Samsung will add Google TV( Sony already had it) to its line up. I haven't heard any more buzz about what will be new.
I am still waiting for the Panasonic blu ray recorder that you can buy in other countries..:-(..and Netflix to live to their Feb 2010 press release about streaming in 1080P video and 5.1 audio


Warren

Just more of your usual BS saying you need links! If you did as much research as you claim, then you also decided to ignore a lot during your research! I NEVER once said that there was no complaints at all for the prior to 2009 Samsung models! In fact I said there has been various threads with complaints about ALL brands of plasma TV's buzzing. But I will say this, the threads with the most complaints about really severe buzzing has mostly been for 2009 Samsungs, 2010 Samsungs, and the 8g and 9g Pioneer Kuro's.

Joe,
My Quad system was from JC Penny. It had there brand on it but IIRC it was a Panasonic. It came with the 4 speakers, AM/FM tuner, and an 8-track. I had a BSR turntable for playing LPs. As your unit was, mine too had a very nice look to it. Black glass behind which the illuminated info shown above a brushed aluminum "knob/button" panel, and a nice dark wood veneer. The dark wood veneer was also on all 4 speakers which had deep black cloth grills. Like you said, very much like a piece of furniture.
I had 2 8-track tapes, both in Quad. One was Million Dollar Babies by Alice Cooper, and the other was Bungle in the Jungle by Jethro Tull. I never was able to get any Quad LPs, but I can't remember why. It might have been because IIRC, most of the Quad LPs were classical.

Ghpr13

Warren,

Then don't add the point about a sales spike when the discussion is about how much overall interest a new innovation generates.

"as for sales falling by 3%...in this economy( of the last 12 months) I honestly would have thought the drop would have been much more than that"

According to your past statements, consumer spending would not be dropping when it came to television sets. Now you're surprised it hasn't dropped more than just three percent? That goes completely opposite what you have been stating.

You kept on insisting that people in general replace the HD sets they purchased just two or three years ago because prices have been falling so much and they want to have the latest technology - just like you do. And that would be the stimulus that would make 3D a financial success with the mainstream.

Do have one quad record, the "Doors Greatest Hits" (there was no separate stereo edition) which one could call "classical" - I certainly think of their music as classic.

Only heard two quad 8-tracks at a friend's house. One was the 1812 overture and the other an Andy Williams album. The one by Claudine Longet's ex-husband simply had most of the instruments come from two speakers like in stereo, then Williams voice coming through a third and the drums coming through a fourth. The 1812 overture had more of an ambient effect and seemed more natural.

Hold the phone
I said that the trend was not following the way you had stated the shape the economy was in..ie..the mainstream you had pointed to

As you recall I have asked you several times how you explain the phenomenon of sales not following this mainstream economy that you have been posting for many pages

I have never insisted that people replaced sets they bought 2-3 years ago. Where did I say that?
They have replaced them to be sure in some cases...and many in these forums have for sure

But you say I said pretty much said everyone had replaced their current flat panels sets with newer flat panels in the last 2-3 years?

I think you are confusing the assumptions you are making about what I mean vs what I actually stated

To be clear ...I think the current 3D technology will sell to the high end buyer at a rate of no more than 4-5% of the total sales of flat panels
I don't think they will get a larger share of the market until there are models in lower product tiers
Generally speaking I don't think anyone who doesn't have a blu ray player will be a candidate for one of these
Do I think the economy will effect sales?...absolutely....will it have anywhere the negative impact that you state it will
I don't think so
If flat panels are only off by 3% this yea when 2010 is said and done....I would say they are by far outpacing the economic when unemployment is still hovering at 10% in most areas of the country
As far as the spike in LED..it was just the "next thing"...and it was available in a much wider product range of TV's than 3D is. Heck in a few months the 3rd tier brands had LED models
Like I said before..though I dont have any data to back it up...I think there is a substantial share in the low end/3rd tier models
If 3D even wants a change at high volume it has to play in that arena
Where its positioned now..I think..the most they can hope for is perhaps 5%.
Joe...that study that you posted that estimated out of 32 million..there will only be 1.2 million 3D sets, or a little less than 4%
Its makes perfect sense to me ...and I think it was that ratio even before 3D hit the scene

I think one of the areas where we differ in thought is I don't place 100% on the success of this on the economic situation

And I make assumption in that statement as I have not seen you state directly about a percentage
Just what I infer from your statements

...and my point in the mention of the sales spike was to speak to volume of units..
The consistency of volume that the retailer desires is another subject

Just to be clear on another point;..I have a desire for new technology..but before this latest TV( and I mentioned the low $$ for that purchase)..I can't recall buying anything the first year it was released...HDTV, Bluray etc ..etc.I typically am a year 2-3 adopter. Even now I am not going to invest in a HDMI 1.4 capable preamp
And related to this...I also think there is a percentage of people that really don't have a desire for new technology...or perhaps I should say its off their radar
Case in point...they still sell VCR/DVD combination machines. In fact Panasonic had( perhaps still does) a blu ray/VHS combination player

Warren

Thanks for the confirmation that you really didn't know

I will take the credit for enlightening you...and hopefully you might reread the original post and take it in the context I meant it in... which was speaking to the "rumor" mill in these threads...and IMO how far fetched it can become vs what is really the case...the Samsung plasma buzzing and "fire-ready" Onkyo receivers are two examples than be readily found in this forum

As for being Guru ...I never said I was a Guhu on A/V gear...that's an assumption you made
I have stated my definition of what I think a A/V Guhu is...and what type of equipment they have

and just so I am clear( and very interested) what do you consider an A/V guru?




Warren

Ummm no, I do know! So you are quite wrong about that, no big surprise there! And I also know that you constantly try to change things around, add or subtract things to what you originally said, all in order to try weasel out of a predicament you created for yourself. Someone could provide you with hundreds of links, and you still would refute them all with one of your weasel maneuvers! To enlighten you on anything, it seems it probably would also require hitting you with a fast moving freight train as the method of delivery in order for it to sink in!

Predicament?!!!
oh..OK...spoken by someone who never has substantiated information.
Again..thanks for the update and confirmation.

No surprises


Warren

Warren,

I really do regret having to say this, but I'm just not going to get into any more discussion with you for reasons well stated by many in this forum. Post whatever you want, disagree with anything I and others might say, twist statements around like a politician, etc. I'm not upset with you - I'm upset with myself because at my age I should know better than to became so involved with such nonsense.

Joe

And that, describes you perfectly!!!!



I'm with Joe, on what he just said. So have fun arguing with yourself!

LOL..Great

Though I don't know how old are..if that matters....taking anything very seriously and to heart in this forum can be questionable


Warren

Thanks

But I won't be arguing with myself about anything ....that's makes how much sense in this venue?...and especially when the actual product knowledge is lacking and its built on pure speculation
As mentioned before...by many....this forum has become a personal venue for "politicing".....You can look at the number of posters here vs the 3D product forums and do the calculations about interest level
There is just about zero technical/product information to add to an informed decision in this forum.
The one person that had any( and could provide the most REAL information) seemed to run off fairly quickly... hmm....wonder why that was?..:-) .......and speculation does not lead to anything other than more speculation

But again...thanks for YOUR personal vast knowledge

If anything....its been entertaining...but not at all enlightening


Warren

I don't answer personal questions like that. No offense.

You have to ask them to get the glasses out and wait for them to finish what they're doing then 5 10 minutes later they get them.

Google a thread in the 3D forums, other people have said the same thing.
They are not letting the TV's be seen by just walking in and trying on the glasses.

Maybe I should try out the stores in Dallas.

Using Pie Chart Division: 8/8 = 8 pie pieces, none of the pie has been eaten.
Then use the simplest rule of division, the half.

When you mention a dollar and you say Divide it, they assume you mean 50%.
I said that to show that if the pie is eaten, it becomes 4/8, or half the pie pieces are eaten.
This is using pie chart division from elementary, the numerator is the number of pie pieces either eaten or not eaten from the denominator.

So back to the TV's and the consumers buying decision. The consumer must buy and when they do they take a piece of pie, dividing the pie, so taking half the pie.
If the product means when they buy they get less than half the pie they must buy multiple times to get half the pie.

The consumer uses basic math that means when they divide the pie to consume it they do so in the basest math meaning they take half the pie when they divide the pie.
This is my theory.

So, if a product like 3D TV's have a buy in that takes multiple products it will take a long time to saturate the market so people will get to the point they automatically have the equipment and a buy in is guaranteed to be half the pie. This means recievers and TV's are already owned by them, HDMI cables are already owned by them. Then they buy the 3D Movies and consider the movie purchase half the pie.

So what I'm saying is it's not BMW or Plasma Kuro, it's half the Pie. That's why people say glasses free is the 3D for them, glasses purchase breaks the pie into more than half when they buy and this means it's a non purchase, a gimmick lark.

+1