3D Television - Fad or Here To Stay? - Page 72

Read up on statements and business figures from Sony, Panasonic, LG, Toshiba and others to confirm their television sales are down and they have cut back drastically on production. Also read their analysis of misreading the consumer based on their own analysis. The same holds true for sales of DVD and bluray discs and players.

I am not voicing idle speculation but actual facts but if you believe differently then go the the more recent 3D forum started earlier this year, go through my posts and review the specific attachments referring to industry executive (not outsiders or media speculators) confirming the information I allude to. Or simply do a search on your own but rely on independent sources, not Display Search and other industry organs.

Also, look at it from a business perspective in relation to terms of success. Yes, a niche following does mean success but when an industry invests in massive research, development, advertising and promotion, and projects 3D to be in 40 to 50 percent of all households by the year 2014, it's goal is to target the mass market and mainstream consumer - not just a niche following - and that means so far not meeting it's expectations and with their own revised forecasts and production goals, no expecting to in the near future, either.

Again, this is about business, not the entertainment value of 3D. Don't think that Sony 3D headset recreating the big movie screen experience isn't tempting.

As an enthusiast you are right. As a technology, for many home video enthusiasts 3D has been a success.

But not so from the corporate point of view whose interest is making money based on a certain amount of return for their investment. 3D and smart televisions, to this point, have not been financial successes or even just a means to halt the financial losses experienced by the television divisions of Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, etc. since 2009. These corporations have all scaled down the production of television monitors this year from their originally anticipated figures precisely because they were targeting the mainstream.

Of course, things could pick up in the future as consumers begin replacing their older sets, however, that is indeed speculation unless the 3D feature becomes standard fare on all but the most inexpensive of sets.

Still beating the horse Joe? Due tell, how much more progress will 3D have to make before you admit you called it wrong?

and how do you know this?..you don't know what their investment was or what their expected rate of return was

Honestly you would have to work for one of the companies in their sales and marketing department to have proof positive

anything else is just speculation

and based on your litmus test there are a lot of "failures" out there

Blu ray would be a failure as well

To my eyes and ears..its a better format in every way than standard DVD...though it may not outsell it

I guess a "few" people feel the same way as I do

Mainstream..IMO...equates to average

For the masses...for many reasons...that is just fine, either for financial reasons or just lack or preference

There are many of us...speaking AV specifically, since that is the focus of this forum...that desire a lot more than average and can and see/hear the difference

I just say thank goodness there are products out there that are more than average

I for one...am always interested in AV products that fall well above the "mainstream" products

Is that a bad or a good thing?
No..just different

Based on the hundreds of posters in this A forum...who likely represent a small number of people who have actually bought the products...I would say there are significant number of folks like me

There is always that guy/gal who says " I can't see, hear.etc the difference in a product that is double the price"

To that person..I say "great"...save your money

I assure you that has never been the case with me on any product that I have come in contact with


Warren

agreed

next year they will have it in the no name brand Walmart TV's

So now..you have both an inferior 2D as well as 3D picture...

They already 3D available in the Best Buy branded( Insignia) Blu ray players as well...for like $99

Warren

Yes, but unless you're Sony, Panasonic, LG, or some other manufacturer, it's irrelevant. Financial success for Sony and success for 3D are really two different things. I wish them the best, but I don't really care whether or not the industry made overenthusiastic predictions which went unrealized. Success for 3D means it's here to stay, not a fad. Again I'm not disagreeing with what you said about the financial impact of 3D up to this point, I'm just saying you can't equate that with success or failure of 3D in the more general sense.

and how one might be defining success is the other question

if they keep introducing more and more products that are 3D capable..one must assume that there is profit in it

whether or not they meet their initial corporate predictions,,,doesn't mean they still don't make money on it

and again..if they keep introducing products( and media) there has to be some profit being made

These days..I can't imagine many companies continue manufacturing( or investing R&D in) products that are not profitable

Warren

Exactly the point, Airion. The business perspective should not be confused with how many have or will embrace 3D in the home. But they are also not two separate issues because each needs to interact with the other in order to create more content in the future. For example, there are currently three dedicated 3D networks accessible to satellite subscribers, however, Cablevision in our big market, tri-state area has just one channel slot dedicated to 3D and that is limited to a small handful of live sporting events each month without repeats. If 3D appears limited to a niche following at this time, would that be enough to justify such a major capital investment for the future? It might indeed evolve slowly over time but for the immediate future we really just don't know.

Haha, we seem to agree but I'm just splitting hairs on nuance and emphasis.

I think what I'm reacting to is the tendency by many to look at lower than expected sales of 3D TVs and, based on that, conclude 3D is struggling. However, low 3D TV sales only point to low 3D TV sales. 3D itself isn't a product. There's 3D TVs, 3D cinema plus 3D blu-rays, 3D broadcasting, and 3D games. While 3D might not (yet) have returned the investment of some TV manufacturers, some 3D blu-rays and 3D games I'm sure have.

Specific business interests aside, I see falling prices of 3D TVs and, critically, more and more content becoming available. I think both of these will combine to make 3D more widespread. The success of 3D (in the Here to Stay sense) is no guarantee, but I see no reason now to worry. I don't think the fact that certain TV manufacturers made self serving unreasonably optimistic predictions and then, surprise surprise, found out that people don't magically buy TVs, is worth much concern.

One would have to know the amount of their actual investment and their rate of return , on it, to pose that question wouldn't they?

..if 3D products and related services continue to grow, as they have..one could assume there are profits being made

As far as calling 3D as niche product
The technology is available too far down into..ie mid range offerings...to be categorized..IMO...as a niche product

I would have said that last year...but the breath of product offerings has grown too wide

The 3D offering...in flat panel TV's anyway...extends well below their top tier offerings

Warren

Actually, the "investment (READ: R & D)" was very small for 3DTV both for CE products and for transmission. Everything with the exception of the HDMI chips was strictly off the shelf alrteady available parts and software (READ: video codec). The actual parts cost (other then the active shutter glasses) for a 3DTV is less then $50 at manufacturers cost. Nothing more was required then an HDMI 1.4 chip, a little bit of additional memory and a IR transmittrer for the active shutter glasses.

3D BD uses existing parts; 2X speed BD drive, AVC-MVC video codec along with the newer 1.4 HDMI chip. For CBL/SAT/TELCO, again, nothing needed to have a lot of R & D. Just a Frame Compatible signal. Same bandwidth as an HD signal.

Your assessment "certain TV manufacturers made self serving unreasonably optimistic predictions and then, surprise surprise, found out that people don't magically buy TVs" is perfectly worded. Disputing industry hype and relying upon what is reported in the Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, reputable and independent industry sources and behavioral study groups etc. presents no conflict with anything other than the contradictions of such predictions and indeed should not be a concern for those who enjoy it as a source of home theater entertainment. 3D not becoming the next hot item for the many reasons cited does not mean it is a fad, either.

And for those who asked for proof that major corporations are losing money in their television divisions and that cutting back production and concentrating their resources in other areas is purely speculative:

http://www.itproportal.com/2011/08/3...demands-slump/

http://smarthouse.com.au/Content_And...ustry/J4S9E6D9

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...133_92411.html

I still don't get why many people seem to want 3D to fail. There are just so many critics and negative reactions to the whole business. It's not one or the other, 3D can exist quite nicely next to conventional 2D. I think it does add an additional element to (certain) movies (sci-fi and animation mostly), just like 5.1 surround sound did at the time. No, not everyone will want to put 6 speakers in their livingroom, no not everone wants to put on glasses for a film, but why the hate?

I think a lot of the negativity of 3D & 3DTV came more from Hollywood than anyplace else, IMO. It started on a high note with Avatar...It seemed that 95% of the people who seen Avatar were truly amazed by the 3D effects (my self included). This was not the 3D of old. But then Hollywood, thinking with their short term brains, brought out Clash of the Titans in 3D, and I would bet 95% of the people who seen that hated the 3D effects. After that Hollywood started the push for 3D movies...They just needed to get 3D movies out there, no matter how good or bad they were.

Then the CE manufacturers started the push for 3DTVs in mass quantities, along with high prices. Even though there was very little 3D medium to watch at home, and the fact that you would need a new BD player capable of playing 3D BD. And of course the glasses...but that's been debated to death in this thread, so let me go on.

Now back to Hollywood. More 3D movies coming out to the theaters, but still none that had come close to Avatar. Critics starting to speak out about some of the bad 3D effects, and the evils of post production 3D. Hollywood keeps releasing more 3D movies, most of them not very good, 3D wise. Consumers start questioning paying higher ticket prices for the 3D version of a movie compared to the 2D version.

Meanwhile, home theater enthusiasts, and others who have made the leap to 3DTV await the 3D BD of Avatar. A movie that, IMO, had it been release in 3D BD around the holiday season of 2010, would have really help sales of 3DTVs, but, instead a 2D version is released!(I still feel this is the biggest blunder in 3DTV promoting ever.)

As time progresses, we here more info on movies like The Green Hornet, that was originally produce in 2D, but at the last minute was made 3D to try to ride the 3D wave. Along with stories like this we get the "news" stories about 3D giving people headaches, causing dizziness, bad for the eyes in younger children, can lead to E.D., etc. Some good does come too. Cloudy, with a Chance of Meatballs, and Aliens vs Monsters, stop being the only 3D BD widely available and as the only freebies with a complete 3DTV bundle. And Avatar finally gets released in 3D BD, but only as part of a special 3DTV bundle...but hey, it's out in 3D 2 years later. Transformer: Dark of the Moon, & the re-release of The Lion King in 3D were just 2 of the most recent highs in 3D. (And yes, I went to see TransformersOTM in 3D and it was great!)

So, IMO, a lot of the blame for the negativity of 3D & 3DTV falls at the feet of Hollywood. Hollywood has always put the mighty dollar above all else, giving to us with one hand, while taking from us with the other.

Ghpr13

Assessing the current socio and economic climate and it's effect on the consumer electronics industry which is having adverse affects on the business of selling televisions is not the same as wanting 3D to fail. It's only an explanation from a business and marketing perspective of the declining consumer interest resulting in industry losses within their television divisions and why 3D and internet ready sets have not been incentive enough to reverse that trend at this time. Many professed this would happen back in March of 2010 for those same exact reasons, stressing that with the HD transition having already peeked, television sets should not be considered as replaceable commodities or be compared to personal computers that need to be upgraded.

That is why 3D has developed a loyal niche following in lieu of mass market success at this time and there is nothing wrong with that except for manufacturers who were expecting lofty profits immediately. Down the road when the next television recycling phase occurs it is most likely that 3D will indeed become a staple in the home theater.

Gh also gave an excellent critique on Hollywood's responsibility regarding the movie theater aspect.

B & W TV
Color TV
HDTV

So Joe - pick one - tell me which one was a mass market success less then two years after it was introduced.

Here is my Homer Simpson point of view. I just went out and purchased the Panasonic 65VT30 and a matching 3D Blue-ray player. I purchased it because I wanted to watch 3D in the comfort of my own home. My wife and I never go to the movies anymore because the theater charges waaaaaay!! Too much money for their tickets. I feel honored and humbled that I can afford this luxury, but we did it for a reason. This is our entertainment. By spending a few thousand dollars now, we will save 10 times that later down the road. I think 3D will stay around. My circle of friends also complains that movie theaters charge too much for their tickets. I have a few friends that have purchased a 3D TV, player, and glasses. These same people are also fed up with the high prices of admission.



Besides, 3D TV's will be standard in the near future. There is no way of getting away from 3D technology. It is just a matter of time until every movie that comes out will be 3D and every TV will be 3D.

BTW, I love watching movies in 3D. I always have liked watching 3D movies. I remember watching movies in the theaters many moon's ago with those paper blue and red glasses and I thought that was the greatest thing ever.

Joe,

Congrats on the new set and enjoy.

Does your cable or dish provider any 3D channels you can also get? For those with 3D in our area, it's just a once in awhile programming.

Well say what you will about movies and 3D, but I just played Assasin's Creed Brotherhood for a couple of hours (through PC with Nvidia software) and it's absolutely freakin' amazing. Games don't have the limitations in terms of depth and post-processing films do and it shows...this is the closest thing to virtual reality yet and takes gaming to an entire new level.

I also have the New Blood 3D concert of Peter Gabriel, which is an amazing experience. How to train a Dragon, Avatar, it all looks fantastic (I would even rate Avatar amongst one of the lesser compared to newer Blu Ray 3Ds).

But if I had any skeptism about it, it flew out of the window days ago.

I have over the air TV. I have a HD antenna sitting on my roof which picks up 36 channels. My wife and I don't watch much tv and the TV we do watch is from Netflix and Amazon Prime.

Lee,

You asked for proof about deep cuts in television production and the television divisions of major corporations actually losing money due to less consumer consumption the past few years and that new features like 3D and internet connectivity have not reversed a trend you believed was both only speculative and non-existent. That has been provided.

The evidence also shows that the consumer electronics industry and retailers are making big money on notebooks, tablets, smart phones etc. and investing major capital based on current consumer demand.

As stated, if 3D does becomes a feature not limited to just high end and a few middle tier models, the natural progression would be for it to slowly become a part of the average home theater set-up as a new replacement cycle settles in. So it seems we are in agreement that it is just a matter of time and only disagree about how long that time could take.

No Joe - that isn't what I asked for. I asked you to pick any one of the TV formats that have been introduced since television itself was introduced that was a mass market success less then 2 years after it's introduction. None of them meets that qualification. So why should 3DTV, another TV format, be any differenet then the previous TV formats? They all took many years to become mass market successes.

The fact that TV sales - ALL types are down, is just another by-product of the recession that continues to rage on.


Sure - the latest and greatest CE products that are all portable - something a TV set is not.


Joe - the mass market doesn't have a home theater. They have a TV set in their living room. Did you know that less then 30% of USA households have a 5.1 channel surround sound system in their home - a product that has been available for well over 20 years.

What the industry hopes for and what the market produces can many times be totally different. Look at Bluray. After almost 5.5 years, it has still failed to cover the losses in decreasing DVD sales. You don't think the industry had high hopes that Bluray would ride the coattails of DVD's success and HDTV adoption?

again

since they didn't break down sales by model...just another thing that can be spun

Just because Tv sales are down doesn't mean 3D is dead

again..you equate everything to the mainstream average joe...( no pun intended)

If one could obtain the figures for the higher end items..I wonder how they are fairing

The certainly keep rolling them out...for instance the new Elite( by Sharp)..$8000 for the 70" LED
A pretty stunning display based on the two store demos I have seen

Could it be the top of the industry is doing much better than the low to mid?

Based on how many times AV equipment has been changed out by members I see in these forums regularly..one would say nothing has changed on the high end of the spectrum



Warren

Huh?

I would have to disagree with your points

Even before the 3D home television..Movies at the theaters were often 3D...ie..Friday the 13th part 3 and several others most often aimed at those under 25

So..there was a lot of junk before..Clash of the Titans and Drive Angry etc


High prices....?

Where do you get that idea?

The top of the line 3D models are actually 25-30% less expensive than their 2D counterparts from 3 years earlier...and they are better sets in every way

Talk to someone who bought a plasma TV 5 years ago and ask them what they paid
It would make today's models, that are better in every way, seem relatively inexpensive

My personal situation..I bought 58" 3D top of the line Samsung last year for 28% less than I paid for a top of the line Samsung 58" 3 years earlier
The newer Tv is better than the old one in every way

So..I completely don't get your high prices point


Warren

You are like the majority of Americans who get their programming over the air



Warren

add to that if you have a pay Tv service.such as Direc TV or cable..it means you are not mainstream as well

For me..it would be a very difficult time without Direct Tv and a blu ray player

based on Joe's logic the speaker manufacturers should be closing down shop as well..based on the less than 30% have 5.1 surround figure

Warren

congrats on the new TV

IMO..you bought a VERY nice television..one that has quite amazing black levels and shadow detail


Warren

Lee,

I do apologize. It was Warren who raised those questions and, as it seems, still likes to pull hairs.

My reference to home theater instead of television is simply a choice of words.

Joe

Warren,
You're comparing apples to oranges...Yes, there were 3D movies before Avatar and a lot were badly made, but until Avatar came out, there had been no real "campaign" for 3D to expand and be taken seriously. Movies like Friday the 13th Part 3, were made for fun and for the "gimmick" part of 3D, with similar 3D movies popping up now and then.

Again with 3DTVs you comparing apples & oranges. You're comparing HDTVs of old with today's HDTVs and 3DTVs. Yes, as we all know, consumer electronics is probably the only consumer product that actually has newer and better models come out at a lower cost than models that were out before. I agree with you on comparing your HDTV costs, mine is similar. My Samsung 40" was $1400.00 when I bought it in 2008. Now you can pick up a Samsung 40" for about $600 or so. I was comparing 3DTVs to 2DTVs pricing in 2009-2010. 3DTVs, be it bundled with glasses and 3DBD player, were about $1500 to $2000 more then a comparable 2DTV. Today things are different. In just 3 years the cost of a current 3DTV is much more closer to the cost of a current 2DTV. But I have notice that there seems to be less bundling out there except for still including the 3D glasses. Of course when you can now buy a 3D BD player for under $100.00 now, it's not really necessary to "bundle" one as an incentive to buy the 3DTV.

Ghpr13

spoken from a person who makes assumption based on facts they can't substantiate

Using your process ...cable, satellite and blu ray are all in trouble

ok....

If asking for detail that disallows "spinning" of a story is pulling hairs. Then I guess I am pulling hairs

You easily have spun the story a different way..ie...check the sales statistics of high end A/V in the United States ...and made the assumption that the top tier of the market could easily be doing well and will be expanding rapidly in product breath and depth

Look at the new Elite brand that Sharp just rolled out


I also find it interesting...that you speculated months ago that 3D was going to be a niche market for A/V enthusiasts

Well..for 2011..the technology has come to mid range products
I don't know many A/V enthusiast that are buying mid line products...do you?

Using your methodology..I would further "speculate"
When the 2012 models rolls out shortly..we will see 3rd tier and store branded panels that are 3D capable

Time will tell...there have already been store branded 3D capable blu ray players released


Would you still agree with your niche market statement?

Warren