3D Projectors at the top of the Hype Cycle?

Very cool graph.
I expect that 3D video gets 'stuck' when it hits the "Trough of Disillusionment."

The trouble with this is that it lumps "panels" with "displays". I consider front projection 3-D to be an entirely different experience from flat panel 3-D. It requires a different level of commitment and when done properly more closely resembles (even exceeds) commercial theater 3-D.

Whether it's 2D or 3D it's hype that generates sales! Personally, I think that anyone without a 3D capable display is going to feel left out once some really good 3D content becomes readily available and the hype machine really gears up. You're either going to be part of the discussion about how good or bad the quality of a just released 3D movie is or you're going to be on the outside looking in and resenting it - which will probably manifest itself by way of pejorative comments about 3D in general.

Where on the graph is the Maxwell Smart Cone of Silence?

They also predict that it's 2 to 5 years till mainstream adoption.

Another way to read that is distinguishing tvs (with built in tuner/speakers) from flat-panel displays (ie monitor only), since 3D computing also seems to be on the hype train and many are predicting that 3D gaming is eventually going to drive mass adoption.

The title of this thread is "3-D Projectors at the top of the Hype Cycle". The graph doesn't specifically include projectors...just panels and displays. Panels and displays have certainly been hyped. I'm not sure 3-D projector systems have...at least not to the general public. Some here in AVS Forum are enthused; others not so much.

I believe there are two different positions on this hype curve, there is the TV manufacturer's position and where advertisers want you to be, and there is the real world position.
Manufacturers are clearly at the top of the hype, they believe 3D will sell super-expensive 3DTVs by the millions and are completely detached from the reality : most consumers buy according to their wallet, few are the lucky ones that can afford buying higher prices for getting what they want.

In the real world as far as 3D technology is concerned I believe we're actually on the slow rising part of the "slope of enlightenment", The big hype about 3D was 10-12 years ago when everything was suddenly jumping into 3D, Virtual reality was to be the next big thing : that was some huge hype peak that turned out to become a considerable disappointment.
3D content makers have learned what 3D can do and what it can't do and are trying to make stuff work better, easier and cheaper, but that's a long curve to climb.

In the real world we also know that glasses-free 3D displays won't come into homes for years because they are significantly behind in quality and even comfort relative to glasses based 3D (yes, wearing glasses to see a sharp image is more comfortable than having to sit in a fixed spot to watch a blurry picture), let alone holographic displays which so many uninformed people still believe is around the corner while it's clearly even in sight.

BlackShark -- I have my doubts that the "real world" has even gotten to the "Trough of Disillusionment" yet. Wait until the movie studios (in their rush to bring 3D content to market) come out with some real duds. Then we'll see how deep the "Trough" is for 3D, and whether or not we will start going up the "Slope of Enlightenment". Part of the depth of the "Trough" will be the hassle of wearing the 3D glasses and having enough to go around when people have a "3D party".

Technology-wise, we probably are heading up the enlightenment slope, as far as specifications and player/display capabilities go. The bottom line: it is the publics general acceptance of medium that will determine if video based 3D (for the consumers) will ever start up the "Slope of Enlightenment".

As usual, the 3D capability of PJs will still lag behind the other, more common, types of displays (flat panel, etc.).

I don't envision "glasses free" 3D to become a reality until holographic or some other type of display gets out of the barn (the 'Technology Trigger").

I don't really care about hype impact on a market, it only has a short term impact while products are not yet available, but are promised to be available soon. I am a lot more worried about the counter-hype by petty industry loser that feel threatened by a competitor's technology and attempt to derail it, or delay it, that includes 3D:

DVD will never work, it can't record, and there's no content !
HDMI is not ready, nobody has a compatible TV, and there are problems with HDCP ! Buy analog !
1080p will never take off, the eyes can't see that resolution on a 42", the TVs are too expensive, and there's no content ! Buy 720p !
BluRay is dead, the players are too expensive, and there's no content ! Buy HDDVD !
3D is not ready, the TVs are too expensive, and there's no content ! Buy a 2D only TV !

Call it counter-hype, or FUD about disillusionment. It's nearly the same thing.

Agree. Personally I don't care for 3d....but if a particular display has it that will surely help with resale value alone.

What do you mean WAIT for duds? They've already got Jackass 3D in the theater. Don't get me wrong, I actually like (most) of the Jackass stuff, but in 3D? And a 7th Saw in 3D, really? The trough is already here. Just be careful when eating from it...

Oh man I didn't see that JA was 3d...man everyone is jumping on the bandwagon!

Yeah, that and Star Wars 3D 2012-2017, one per year.

Ugh.

Jackass 3D was the one that finally got me out to the theater.

If Gartner says it's true, then it's false. Don't pay them any heed at all - any regular on this forum is going to have a better grasp of the situation than Gartner.

Gartner's entire reason for existence is to provide CYA cover for clueless management types that make wrong decisions. Gartner sells 'reports' at $2K+ a pop that said types can purchase and then use to say that whatever bone-headed decision they made was based on advice from "professional analysts."

I get it. Since he is in the business of x, if he supplies a graph with data we should refrain from addressing it? Posts are either correct or incorrect or partially correct and partially incorrect. The subject matter of this thread and the data presented by the graph provides for an interesting and informative discussion.