Official 70"+ LCD thread - Page 44

All the Costcos around here have some kind of halogen overhead lighting (I assume it's halogen at least). Neither here nor there, just felt it was worth mentioning that we don't have fluorescent. Whatever we do have is nasty, however.

Thanks for this info. I needed to get something bigger then 65" and needed wall mounted for the sake of the kids safety (and the tv as well, lol) so I went with the elite 70" figuring if I was going to wall mount I didn't want to have to do it again any time soon so I better get the best.

Unimpressed so far at first look with the elite pro-70x5fd (especially for the price) compared to my sam un65c8000.

I guess I'm just partial to samsung but they didn't have anything bigger then 65" and too late now, they blew it. The 75" was to be edge lit and way overpriced so the 80" will only be worse

Hello,

I am a non-videophile looking for expert advice regarding optimal settings for my LC-70LE632U. I've lurked on AVS and learned from that to turn off the digital processing (OPC, Motion Enhancement, Active Contrast, Digital Noise Reduction). I primarily watch movies (BluRay player @ 24fps for both BluRays and regular DVDs) and play Xbox360 (both HDMI).

I have not have anyone come in to calibrate the TV (is this really necessary?), and more generally wondered if anyone has 'optimal' settings they could pass along. I very much dislike the 'soap opera' effect, and don't watch sports anyway. In addition to the various picture settings, I am unsure how to set Film Mode (Advanced High/Low, Standard, Off).

Thanks in advance for any advice.

Think you're in the wrong thread:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1374850

Samsung's biggest good TV is a 60". The 65" is not good.

So what other 70"+ led LCD are there besides sharp models (including the elite)?

Still no competition? Any upcoming to look out for?

None

None now but to answer the 2nd part of my question There is always new models on the horizon.

LG 72" (came out in asia) and Samsung 75-80" (75" in Asia but many think an 80" is more likely when it comes out here due to their faciltity/glass size?) are rumored and we'll find out at the next show I'm sure.

Plus what ever happened to the Vizio 72"? I guess LG didn't want to give them the glass for mass production and compete against their own 72" at a lower price point. So now instead there is no LG 72" or Vizio in the usa.

My un65c8000 looks amazing and my elite 70" like crap. But I think I just got lucky with a really good 65c8000 on 2nd try and unlucky with a bad elite 70 on first try.

Will maybe try another elite only because it's the only/best 70" (meaning the only other 70" are just even worse lower end version of the elite) but it seems way overrated and overpriced.

+1

and I own an Elite 70" so no one an say i am just saying the Elite is no better then the other sharps because I dont have one. That being said I still didn't want the non elite sharp 70" and glad to have those few extra features, the nicer casing, better customer service etc. But bottom line the tv was overpricied. I got a good deal off msrp but its still a bit overpriced but I need to get somethign larger then 65" and get wall mounted so that was that but at least I can admit the Elite is overated and overpriced.

only ppl that own it should be allowed to say that but 99.9% that do will never admit because ppl are always biased to what they bought.

From today's "The Verge":

"Sharp has said it expects to sell more than 1 million units with a display 60 inches or larger before the company wraps its fiscal year on March 31, and sees the market tripling in 2012."

So, what to make of these numbers? Sharp sells a number of different 60" models, including a warehouse-club model that has been at or around $1500 for all of 2011. Generally speaking for every halving in price, there is a quadrupling in volume.

We can do some back-of-the-envelope calculating here, but I think it's entirely correct and realistic to say that the 70" Sharp -- which will have been generally available for the entire fiscal year of March 31 to March 31 -- came out priced aggressively, remained priced aggressively and was doubtless a success in terms of establishing a category, approximately meeting production targets, etc.

What it was not was any sort of catalyst to massively -- or even significantly -- expand the market for really, really big TVs. The entire 70" sales for the first year will amount to approximately 250,000. The real number could be as low as 100-150,000 and cannot be higher than 300,000. The latter would be well understood by anyone with any familiarity how business actually works. With sales of 60"+ at 1 million units and with said models retailing as low as $1400 or so, sales of models retails north of $2500 -- and typically $3000-4000 when the 3-D models are accounted for -- cannot and will not compose more than 20-30% of the total sales (this doesn't even consider that there are quite literally people who bought the upscale 60" models without ever considering the 70" models due to space limitations or the fact that the 70" was not for sale in their country).

Global TV sales will be very approximately 240 million in 2011, meaning that 70" and up sets accounted for roughly 1 in 1000 of those. While this is effectively an infinite increase from last year's 0 in 1000 (the infinitesimal number of giant plasmas and one-off LCDs notwithstanding), it's not particularly noteworthy yes.

If, indeed, Sharp is correct and their 60+" production triples in 2012 -- and really I'm not doubting it will -- the question is will the increase lead to a linear increase in the curve. Let's just assume it does. If the total for this year was, in fact, in the 200,000s and it triples, it's possible that in 2012, 70" will represent north of 0.3% of the global TV market. Figure other manufacturers join the fray and ship a few units and we could see those figures get to 0.4%.

If, however, the total in the fiscal year ending 03/2012 was closer to 100K, then even with 3x that total, you are still looking at 0.1% of the market. Rolling this forward and using the optimistic forecasts, the limitations of the Sharp Sakai plant, the reality that no other 10G fab is current even under construction and the biggest LCD maker is actually shifting away from LCD, it is possible to set some bounds for the 2015 market share of 70+" displays.

Lower bound for 2015 (2012 represents growth, but the market is really quite small and therefore 400K units a year satisfies it)... 0.3% market share

Upper bound for 2015 (2012's growth is more or less repeated, with slowing for 4 more years and the number for 2011 was closer to 250K).... 4% market share (Approximately 12 million units annually. Honestly, I believe this would significantly exceed industry capacity in 2015 so the true upper bound is almost certainly somewhat lower. Sharp's plant will cap at about 8 million units if it abandons 60" entirely an only makes 70". Even if you accept that will happen -- and it could in this high demand scenario -- there is not 4 million units of other industry capacity available without significantly retrofitting older plants which would make them capable, but inefficient, producers of 70" glass.)

The transition of Samsung to OLED, the implosion of Sony, the semi-implosion of Panasonic and the dithering of LG are not bullish trends, unfortunately. Capacity alone seems to be capping the market for 70" TVs at 2-3% by mid-decade. With OLED coming to market on what amounts to LCD backplanes and with a massive industry-wide transition either underway or causing a long period of TFT-LCD underinvestment, there appears to be no way out of this.

None of this means that those of you that want a 70" TV will have a problem. And one can reasonably hope that Sharp (and I believe Panasonic) will begin to supply choice in the 80" segment as well -- to go with Sharp's initial entry there. It just means that the industry is not building for any tectonic shift toward giant TVs. And without such a build, such a shift is simply not possible.

Sharp is reducing 60" production and likely produce minimal for year 2013. That's the context of Sharp's forecast of 60"+

Like I said before, if 70"+ sells more than 2m ie 1% of market (which is not impossible in 2013) it shows there is a demand for large size but it will be capped below 5% of market simply due to capacity (not demand, so market share is not relevant whether there is a "market" or not. Sharp has however put their $ where their mouth is), though not forgetting that Sharp demonstrated it's possible to make 80" using 8G fab.

Which also means demand for huge panel will have an impact on capacity for other panel size and pricing. Huge size demand and Sharp's mix adjustment may actually save the industry next 2 years. In this context is why I said the 732 will likely be the cheapest 70" in next 24 months. The industry is dynamic, so if there is sustainably good margins on huge size, we will see others put $ where their mouth is and invest 10G capex in China for 2014/5 ramp.

Problem is of course the economy is not helping.

That seems completely impossible actually. You are talking about a 10x increase over 2011 if that happens. I'm not persuaded that's possible on many, many levels.

Yes, there is demand. Yes, Sharp has invested. Yes, Sharp can make 80" with an 8G fab, but keep mind, we are talking about well under 50K units per years right now.

You will need new entrants to make those investments. I don't see any scenario where the incumbents invest in 10G LCD in China or anywhere, even 3 years out. Samsung is definitely either going to make the move to OLED or basically keep stamping out garbage LCD from their existing fabs and be content to make whatever margins that allows. Why invest $6 billion on a new fab when the old one lets you rule the world?

The competition is flat out in shambles.

While I don't doubt that the Chinese themselves could start making LCD TV panels, I'm not sure that (a) it radically changes the calculus or (b) they would decide to drive the market toward bigger sizes that are still more or less limited to the North American market and very select pockets elsewhere.

We speculated over and over on this topic and with the OLED migration moving to smaller sizes it seems more certain than ever than getting the 70" category to even the 10% threshold is going to be a fairly tall order by decades end. That would be two orders of magnitude from here or a 100-fold increase in its market share. Currently, industry capacity will stop it halfway. Let's say we agree that eventually new capacity will come online that might change that... If it does so in 2015-2016, the plausibility of a 10% share for the 70" category at least exists. As for the certainty of it? Not so much.

If I had to bet right now, I'd guess that in 2020, 70"+ sets would represent single-digit percent of the market, albeit high single digits. The more successful OLED is, the lower the percentage will be. It will have the perverse effect of driving up ASPs and driving down average screen sizes at the same time.

^^I've never known you to change your pre-existing view. Guess rogo will reply you since he believes most people agree with me that there is a market for huge TV.

@rogo I think the article is saying 60"+ market will triple. There are other 60" makers that are making Sharp's 60" unrpofitable. I suspect Sharp will continue to use the term 60"+ well beyond 2013 because to use the term 70"+ would be too apparent Their 10G capacity was increased to 72k substrates a month IIRC

Samsung & AUO are keen to start >=10G in China... it all depends on their view in huge sizes in LCD. I believe huge size production will be in China simply because the LCM are assembled there. Unlike semicon, labour and land cost are considerable for TV production. Huge size should be catching on in China as well as only recently I realised that the reason why ave size for Chinese market is 37" is because the bulk is 32", 42" and 47". That's statistics If you know Chinese, we love bragging rights This is from a market when only 2 years ago analysts believe most can only afford a 32" LCD, which is exactly what their home appliance incentive catered to.

Historically, go back a mere 8 years and you'll be reminded that the largest LCD was a 45" Sharp with a MSRP of about $7K. Since that time the bar has risen significantly and yesterday's monster at 45" is todays weenie HT and selling for about $500 as manufacturing has adapted and evolved.

Also take into account the RPTV market which was strong as hell then and those owners which span a few decades have an alternative that fills their HT void in size and improved PQ and value. We've come a long way in such a short time and the difference is Sharp spent the 5.5 billion to be where they are and if you studied Sharps history they virtually invested everything they had into LCD. Today Sharp is trying to protect what they have in Saiki as China wants them to build a duplicate in their country but so far Sharp has refused and wants to limit China to 8G Fabs. The market will evolve but Sharp has flowed with it by retrofitting and repurposing K1,K2 for tablets and smart phones also and the Mexico Plant has always had the capacity to build budget line larger glass I believe. Sharp has proven itself in 2011 by streaming 70+" variable types/sizes and was never any promo of an 80" at CES last year. Who knows what they have on the plate for 2012?

Samsung 75" can be had for $10K-$13K but it remains edge lit and way out of consumers affordability target - it truly is a Niche panel whereas Sharp has an entire line that fall within affordability at prices a 52" used to sell for higher. Sharp is not standing still but they just planned better for the future IMO and now reaping the rewards of the $5.5 billion just as when they went all in with LCD in it's beginnings when they transitioned from a budget line consumer tube TV selling at K-mart et al.

I am saying there is an upper bound that is limited by capacity irkuck. It cannot be exceeded no matter how tastes change. I believe, personally, there is no risk of a capacity-based sell out of 70 inchers at mid-decade.

Yes, I calculated off that to get my numbers for the above post. I believe -- as I said -- demand for 70s will indeed increase. I don't believe, I said in this post, that it will increase enough to cause shortages.

So I'm not buying that Samsung is doing 10G LCD and 8G OLED. The market is simply not that big for TVs. You don't win by investing in capacity the industry has no use for and hoping competitors die. You win by doing things they can't and watching them go bankrupt then buying their assets on the cheap. Samsung is not that financially successful they can fight a multi-front war and be everything to everyone.

China is not going to see significant uptake for 60+" TVs in the home. The country is the size of the U.S. -- very approximately -- with 4x as many people, most of which are jammed into cities. While real estate might not be quite as tight as Japan, it's a far cry from North America, where probably half the homes could accommodate a TV that large.

I'm not saying sizes won't creep up in China, but 60+? If that's destined for, say 10+% in the U.S. (perhaps even 15%+ from 2-3% today), it's destined for less than half that in China.

That's precisely the same stuff we've been discussing.

For what it's worth, statements like "we hoped to do this in the U.S. and Canada, but now we're going to do it in the U.S. alone" are the kind of asinine PR drivel that make corporate flacks sound so... well, stupid.

Canada has barely 10% of the U.S. population and the 70s started selling in Canada later than the U.S. So this startling result is basically, "We did a few percentage points better than we hoped for in our conservative forecasts". Sounds less impressive, huh? Also, more accurate....

For what it's worth, given that Sharp has a sub-$1000 60" set for sale for the Christmas season, I wonder what portion of the total sales are those. The $1350 model has been available for months and I'm sure has also been selling like hotcakes.

I am saying absolutely no such thing.


I already did the math on the 70" market and what this year's production represents -- approximately 0.1% by the way. I also did some bounded math on setting a maximum on how big that could get come mid-decade -- a few percent.

Obviously, the market potential for 60" is significantly larger than the market potential for 70". First of all, it is not bounded by production limitations so pricing can fall to levels where all reasonable portions of the demand curve can be met. This isn't true of 70" where the people who would buy for $2000 (presumably more than a few) are not able to be satisfied. Already, the people that would buy a 60" for $1000 can be satisfied.

Second of all, the drum I've been beating since the beginning carries the same sound: As you go down in size, you increase the hypothetical market until you fall to a size so small that you lose the sweet spot. Surely, you must agree the market for 60" is much larger than for 70". (If you don't, well, then there is probably also no convincing you the earth is roughly spherical and the sun rises in the east). The U.S. "typical size" today is 46". That's not likely to rise much, but could possibly reach 50".

If we are to believe all the OLED hype, there is some industry-wide belief that the living-room TV can be pushed all the way to 55" by the latter half of this decade.

The fact is, there will probably never be an 11G LCD fab (logistically, it's fairly idiotic to try to build one and there might well never be a business case for one). The fact is, until one of these crazy ideas that the dreamers like to link to -- roll-up displays, transparent ones, whatever -- becomes something real that can built into a wall and exist as decor when in use, TV's will be big things that just sit there. And the demand for big things that just sit there will be bounded by the size of said big things.

I think we've more or less proved that the 60"+ category is limited to ~10% of the market for the foreseeable future. Bringing up confirmational data about that is more or less relevant to the greater discussion. Of course, data that proved otherwise would also be relevant.

The relatively recent appearance of a $900 CCFL-based, Sharp-branded LCD TV in my local Costco leads me to no longer believe the above statement is accurate.

If Sharp's 60" lines were unprofitable, what possible motivation would they have to drive 60" pricing down across the board and / or whore out ridiculous cheap TVs that cannot possibly carry high percentage margins? It's entirely illogical.

I am therefore left to concluded that Sharp's aggressively priced 60" models are being sold profitably. It would be easy for Sharp to do any number of things that involve not making as many 60" substrates, driving toward more 70" substrates and lower 70" pricing, etc. if they were losing money at 60 inches. Selling a $900 60" TV does not seem consistent in any way with their operations being a money loser. Sorry.

This "strong as hell" market never was more than about 4 million units a year -- globally. In fact, it was more or less that for a decade, until it vaporized. The RPTV market is a historical footnote.

Do u think Sharp is reducing their 60" mix?

If they are, why would they do that if they are making good money?

Anyway this was what analysts and Sharp been saying past 12 months ie it's not MY guesstimate It's not totally illogical to lose $ in one product and make $ on another to up the utilization rate.

In addition Sharp been doing a lot of one off writedowns so it's hard actually to figure out their real unit cost but looking at industry they should be selling near or below cash cost.

That said US pricing been ridiculous. I'm not surprised also if Sharp is clearing 60" inventory.

Any rumors on the supposed sharp 70" "935" with some parts of the elite like local dimming?

No. But we can hope.

90 inch Sharp coming to the US.

http://vr-zone.com/articles/sharp-pl...pan/14281.html