Ok...Holidays are now over, so, how about 3D now? - Page 42

Its hard to discern real trends at the adoption phase of a new technology because of the inherent desire of people to experience whatever is 'new', and often limited avenues for experiencing it. A rapid upward trend can't continue forever, its the plateau and the stability of that plateau that is important.
If hypothetically you had 100 3D movies released this year on double the number of screens as compared to 2010 then they would all have to perform diabolically for there to be a reduction in revenue. Even a 50% revenue increase on double the movies and twice the screens would not be a particularly positive result.

Unfortunately, the articles from Business Week and the Wall Street Journal are no longer available on line but both reported big drops in television sales and companies across the board reducing the amount of televisions to be produced this year

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...3024632744.htm

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...03-705272.html


But in sum, as far as the consumer electronics industry is concerned, is a drop in earnings and reduced expectations for the coming year. While this is in sharp contrast to what they predicted a year ago, it is also right in line with what most of us predicted here in this forum at the same time.

Again, only time will tell for right now, all we can do is speculate.

Why not?

By your own scenerio, they made more 3D movies and theaters added more 3D screens while revenue increased. That sounds pretty positive to me.

Joe, the data was right there. All you had to do was click on the SOURCE for that link:

Samsung says glasses-free 3D TVs are still 10 years out


http://www.gamertell.com/gaming/comm...-10-years-out/

Because it would mean that revenue per screen and revenue per movie had dropped. Now if there were significant art house type pictures being released in 3D this might not be such a bad thing, but given the blockbuster focus of 3D lower 3D revenues on a per movie basis would not be a good sign.

I see that now and submit my own expereince as evidence of how one could develop a misconception based on inaccurate reporting generated by many and not investigating further into it.

Display Search, however, does confirm that overall LCD television production figures have been reduced for the first quarter 2011. Interesting is that LCD TV sub-contract manufacturing (OEM/ODM) companies are increasing their monthly shipments from December 2010 to March 2011.

http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde..._shipments.asp

I understand the revenue per screen issue. But not the revenue per movie. That will always be dependent on the popularity of the movie itself, not on the shooting technique.

Shooting in 3D is a movie making tool. Just like shooting in Panavision (anamorphic 2.39 aspect ratio.)


LOL - why would the genre of the movie being made in 3D have anything to do with the success or failure of 3D?

The reason why 3D is oriented towards the blockbuster movies is due to the high added production cost. As this drops, more movies can be shot in 3D.

While we're on the subject of production costs, here is an interesting article from Variety regarding what needs to be addressed by both the manufacturers and the broadcasters. Let them battle among themselves regarding who pays for what, as long as we're not caught holding the shaft.


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118027243

Now realize I wasn't misreading things (my reputation is saved !). Futuresource Consulting predicted that half the U.S. households would have a 3D tv by 2014. This is it's press release from a year ago which includes the basis for it's reasoning:

For Immediate Release February 2010

New breed of BD player will drive 3D forward
The BDA‟s announcement in December last year on the finalisation of the „Blu-ray 3D‟ specification has been cemented by Sony‟s release of a standalone 3D-Ready Blu-ray player, firmly fixing the industry‟s crosshairs on a 3D future.
Within four years, 50% of US homes will own a 3D-Ready display, and the uptake of 3D–Ready Blu-ray players won‟t be far behind, with one out of every three US homes owning one. This is according to Futuresource Consulting, with new research scheduled to be unveiled at their forthcoming webinar, „3D: How Big, How Soon?‟, taking place on Thursday 25 February.
“Our research shows an imminent upsurge in the adoption of 3D-capable High Definition and Blu-ray hardware, now strengthened by a clearly defined 3D roadmap,” says Jim Bottoms, Director at Futuresource. “We expect that a high percentage of BD players will ship with 3D capability next year, and within a few years it will be difficult to buy a player without 3D.”
Hunger for 3D content will also be driven by owners of PS3 consoles who will be able to play 3D Blu-ray content via a firmware upgrade. For those consumers not yet convinced by the HD experience, 3D will be a highly persuasive reason to upgrade. Combine this with other premium features, such as connected TV and Entertainment Database Browsing, which allows users to browse actor and production information, and consumers in the early adopter and early majority segments will begin to upgrade fairly quickly.“With a number of leading hardware brands all vying to carve out an early position in the 3D TV and BD market, 3D Ready TVs and players will seed the 3D market in much the same way as the HD market was primed five years ago,” says John Bird, a leading strategy analyst at Futuresource. “By 2015 we expect the majority of TVs available will be 3D-Ready and the normal replacement cycle will result in a good proportion of households in the US, Japan and Europe having a 3D-capable display,” says Bird. “There is a real feeling of excitement surrounding 3D and here at Futuresource we believe the new unified approach will translate into commercial success within the course of the next few years.”
The paid-for Futuresource webinar, „3D: How Big, How Soon?‟, takes place on Thursday 25 February at 9.30am (GMT) and again at 4.30pm (GMT) and will examine the market impact of 3D in the consumer entertainment environment. Join senior members of the Futuresource team to explore the reality of 3D and the business opportunities being Press Release Page 2 of 2 ©Futuresource Consulting Ltd, 2010 tel: +44 1582 500100 • fax: +44 1582 472946 • web: www.futuresource-consulting.com
created. The presentations and Q&A session will delve into the commercial and technological factors that will drive 3D revenues, including the 3D TV Market, 3D Blu-ray, broadcast, online, gaming and theatrical. Delegate places are available at just £45GBP."
<>

From the U.S. Census Bureau: "The number of households in the United States is projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching 103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115 million by 2010." Half of that translates to approximately 50 million households.

Futuresource's press release did receive attention from major U.S. media. For example, from USA Today more than a year ago based on what Futuresource forcasted: "analysts say the new sets will be a hit. By 2014, 45% of all U.S. households will have a TV that can handle 3D, up from just 3% this year, research firm Futuresource Consulting forecasts. The Consumer Electronics Association estimates that nearly 2.2 million 3D TVs will be sold this year." The complete article is attached.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...levision_N.htm


Another website quoting the same figure from that consulting group:

http://www.gamerlive.tv/article/with...wn-3d-ready-tv



This month Futuresource announced expectations for the end of 2012:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20...ag=mncol;title

Last November Futuresource predicted that 40% of all U.S. households would also have a 3d bluray player by 2014 as well - a bit up from it's original projection released in February. From Yahoo:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...rtainment.html

LOL - FutureSource is NOT the best source for predictions. They are always very bullish on technology and most of their predictions fall way short..

What does that matter? Reliable or not, the bottom line is that the consumer electronics industry embraced FutureSource's projections for 3D Television and used it for as much consumption in terms of publicity to the general public as it could get. As long as the prediction was positive, the industry was not going to distance itself from it. Also, keep in mind that Futuresource is an established and financially successful research firm with enough cliens satisfied with it's predictions to keep it from going out of business itself.

They didn't embrace it. They just repeated it . . . numerous times in articles and blogs. That statement was made the first month that 3DTVs went on sale.

LOL - what did you expect them to say?

This was their prediction for the US Home Video Market. It was done in December 2009:

http://www.highdefforum.com/high-def...turesoure.html

They weren't even close for their prediction of what 2010 would be as you can see:

http://www.degonline.org/pressreleases/2011/f_Q410.pdf

So if they can't predict a year out, how the hell can they be accurate 4 YEARS out?

Of course the industry repeated it over and over again -- that's the point of this whole discussion. From the beginning many of us took issue with the industry hype touting 3D being in 40 million U.S. households by 2014 (for myself, it was based on socio and economic factors, not whether or not one simply wanted a 3D set) and you said you couldn't find anything about this on the web.

Joe:

You want to believe everything you read on the web - be my guest, ESPECIALLY when it comes to predictions.

If you want more reliable sources for predictions try:

NPD
Displaysearch
iSuppli

Lee,

I'm confused. If I believed it, why would I have disputed it?

How reliable had Display Search been - didn't they get their prediction for national and international sales in 2010 wrong?

Didn't they revise their original prediction in October 2010 to 3.2M (WW)? And wasn't that prediction on the money when 3DTVs sales were counted in Jan. 2011?

Yes, DisplaySearch recently downsized projections that 5 percent of TVs sold would be 3-D models; that number is now 2 percent, showing they got it wrong originally too.

From April 2010:

DisplaySearch Increases 3D TV Sales Forecast


http://www.dealerscope.com/article/d...market-grows/1

Whatever. This is the reality of 2010:

http://stratecongroup.com/1210sa1cea3dnotacategory.aspx

I believe the actual number is 3.2M (WW)

3DTV Sales Better Than HDTV At This Point In Cycle, Says Analyst [UK Analyst Says That 3DTV Is Being Adapted Quicker Than HDTVs, As Manufacturers Rush To Introduce New Gimmicks To Keep Prices High]

http://nexus404.com/Blog/2010/11/30/...p-prices-high/

James Murdoch: 3D TV Production Difficult, But Crucial


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...duction-167857

Many speculated that as the production cost went down, the majority of sets would be 3D ready by 2014. However, that CEA President hints of it remaining a feature on high-tier sets instead. Does that seem to indicate 3D not becoming available in most mid-tier units?

If (and I only mean if) that is to be the case, what do you think this means regarding the future status of 3D in the home? Would being limited to a feature found on higher priced sets result in 3D becoming a more successful as item with a niche following rather than a staple in almost half the U.S. households by the end of 2014 as the industry touted it would? Could this limit content on cable and bluray? Or do you think when in the market to purchase a new set, consumers might consider spending the extra money and slowly bring 3D into the mainstream?

Know it's the same question that has already been asked but this is now considering what the CEA President hinted of.

As long as the active shutter glasses remain expensive, what would be the point offerring 3D on an inexpensive HDTV?

LOL - what good is a $500/$700 3DTV where it will cost you $400 for 4 pair of ASGs?

The new FPR passive glasses 3DTVs stand a much better chance of being offered on cheaper HDTVs. The glasses can be bought for $10 a pair (or keep the ones they give out at a RealD 3D cinema).

Point a lot of us raised in the previous forum. If one wasn't going to purchase extra glasses, they would probably opt for a less expensive set without the 3D feature altogether. It has been noted, however, that many who purchased 3D sets in the United Kingdom did not purchase any additional glasses; those most likely were high enders interested in 2D rather than the mainstream (they could also purchase the glasses later). That could be the case in the U.S. over the next few years as well.

Then how much this will affect the amount of cable content to become available down the road? Like with HD, some providers might charge an extra fee as more services become available or make it on a pay-per-view basis.

We'll just have to wait and see and if we feel confident in our speculations , am sure there is a betting line somewhere in Vegas to put a few bucks down on a bet.

You cut this out when you quoted me . . . why?:

Only because I was expanding upon your point regarding the expensive kind. But did find this interesting article about the battle between LG and Samsung on those inexpensive ones you mentioned.

http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/samsu...1102181029.htm

Do you think those FPR ones would be worth it or would one notice a significant loss of resolution as Samsung claims? Is the technology that makes FPR fine for movie theaters not applicable to get the full, similar experience with 3D television? You seem to know more about this than I do.

You get the same loss in resolution when you watch frame compatible 3D content using ASGs.

Why don't you explore what users of the product are saying instead of what Samsung, a competitor to LG & Vizio is saying:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forum...prune=-1&f=191

This thread:

Vizio XVT3D650SV 65" Passive 3D announced

IMO, if 3D isn't incorporated in mid tier HDTVs, this could hamper advancement of 3D for gaming. Most teen/young adults who are hardcore gamers have ~ 32" HDTVs because of the affordability and room constraints...These are usually a second TV in junior's room so Dad & Mom can watch their big screen HDTV without competing with the kid. And 3D gaming is where I think 3D will get it's largest acceptance in the home market for the near future.

Ghpr13

That's right - a portion of hardcore gamers are teenagers and young adults have less expensive, secondary sets in their rooms either at home or in the dorm because they either don't have the money for a more expensive model or they were purchased for them by their parents.