Now realize I wasn't misreading things (my reputation is saved
!). Futuresource Consulting predicted that half the U.S. households would have a 3D tv by 2014. This is it's press release from a year ago which includes the basis for it's reasoning:
For Immediate Release February 2010New breed of BD player will drive 3D forward
The BDA‟s announcement in December last year on the finalisation of the „Blu-ray 3D‟ specification has been cemented by Sony‟s release of a standalone 3D-Ready Blu-ray player, firmly fixing the industry‟s crosshairs on a 3D future.Within four years, 50% of US homes will own a 3D-Ready display
, and the uptake of 3D–Ready Blu-ray players won‟t be far behind, with one out of every three US homes owning one. This is according to Futuresource Consulting, with new research scheduled to be unveiled at their forthcoming webinar, „3D: How Big, How Soon?‟, taking place on Thursday 25 February.
“Our research shows an imminent upsurge in the adoption of 3D-capable High Definition and Blu-ray hardware, now strengthened by a clearly defined 3D roadmap,” says Jim Bottoms, Director at Futuresource. “We expect that a high percentage of BD players will ship with 3D capability next year, and within a few years it will be difficult to buy a player without 3D.”
Hunger for 3D content will also be driven by owners of PS3 consoles who will be able to play 3D Blu-ray content via a firmware upgrade. For those consumers not yet convinced by the HD experience, 3D will be a highly persuasive reason to upgrade. Combine this with other premium features, such as connected TV and Entertainment Database Browsing, which allows users to browse actor and production information, and consumers in the early adopter and early majority segments will begin to upgrade fairly quickly.
“With a number of leading hardware brands all vying to carve out an early position in the 3D TV and BD market, 3D Ready TVs and players will seed the 3D market in much the same way as the HD market was primed five years ago,” says John Bird, a leading strategy analyst at Futuresource. “By 2015 we expect the majority of TVs available will be 3D-Ready and the normal replacement cycle will result in a good proportion of households in the US, Japan and Europe having a 3D-capable display,” says Bird. “There is a real feeling of excitement surrounding 3D and here at Futuresource we believe the new unified approach will translate into commercial success within the course of the next few years.”
The paid-for Futuresource webinar, „3D: How Big, How Soon?‟, takes place on Thursday 25 February at 9.30am (GMT) and again at 4.30pm (GMT) and will examine the market impact of 3D in the consumer entertainment environment. Join senior members of the Futuresource team to explore the reality of 3D and the business opportunities being Press Release Page 2 of 2 ©Futuresource Consulting Ltd, 2010 tel: +44 1582 500100 • fax: +44 1582 472946 • web: www.futuresource-consulting.com
created. The presentations and Q&A session will delve into the commercial and technological factors that will drive 3D revenues, including the 3D TV Market, 3D Blu-ray, broadcast, online, gaming and theatrical. Delegate places are available at just £45GBP."
From the U.S. Census Bureau: "The number of households in the United States is projected to increase during the next 15 years, reaching 103 million by the turn of the century and almost 115 million by 2010." Half of that translates to approximately 50 million households.
Futuresource's press release did receive attention from major U.S. media. For example, from USA Today more than a year ago based on what Futuresource forcasted: "analysts say the new sets will be a hit. By 2014, 45% of all U.S. households will have a TV that can handle 3D, up from just 3% this year, research firm Futuresource Consulting forecasts. The Consumer Electronics Association estimates that nearly 2.2 million 3D TVs will be sold this year." The complete article is attached.http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...levision_N.htm
Another website quoting the same figure from that consulting group:http://www.gamerlive.tv/article/with...wn-3d-ready-tv
This month Futuresource announced expectations for the end of 2012:http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20...ag=mncol;title
Last November Futuresource predicted that 40% of all U.S. households would also have a 3d bluray player by 2014 as well - a bit up from it's original projection released in February. From Yahoo:http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...rtainment.html