Originally Posted by coyote_5
Link or stop presenting wild speculation as fact.
It's hardly wild speculation. It's a VERY educated guess. First, let's take the..
November part of the equation:
The last major home console that didn't launch in November was the Playstation 2, which launched around Holloween 2000. Since then, the Xbox, GameCube, Xbox 360, Playstation 3 and Nintendo Wii have all launched in November. Why? Because a November launch gives the best chance at being that "hot" Xmas gift of the year. You want it to come out a week or two weeks prior to Thanksgiving. You want it to be totally sold out on the first day. Then, the day after Thanksgiving, you have limited quantities available at Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target, etc, etc, with only 50 available per store. Long lines of people sleeping overnite, etc, etc. All the companies know how to generate the hype now in regards to a major console launch. The most logical strategy, is a week, to a week and a half prior to Thanksgiving. Mass hysteria at launch, mass hysteria on Black Friday, and then the great hunt between then and Xmas with limited shipments coming in and always selling out. Manipulated scarcity, along with the real hype that is created by the snowball effect of hearing about it being sold out and impossible to find.The 2013 part of the equation:
The 2013 part is even more elementary. If we look logically at this situation, there are only 3 possible years in which a launch happens. 2012, 2013, 2014. Those are really the only possible years. 2010 is out of the question, and 2015 is way too late, especially for a company that has enjoyed the first movers advantage recently. 2012, 2013 and 2014 remain the only "logical" options. So, already, you're talking about a 33.3 percent chance of it being 2013.
However, if you consider the fact that they are just now hiring engineers to help design the architecture, a 2012 launch seems almost impossible. Dev Kits need to get out to the key developers at least 11 months in advance. Basically, you're talking December prior to the year of launch, by the LATEST. That would mean that Tiburon (Madden '14), Treyarch (Call of Duty), Bungie (Destiny), Bioware (Mass Effect 4), etc, etc, would need to have dev kits in hand by this December. The only scenario in which dev kits would be ready by this December, is if the LinkedIn listings were a total ruse to trick Sony into thinking they won't have a new console anytime soon. I would love to believe something like this, because I'd much rather have a 2012 launch, but again, it's just not logical if you read the tea leaves that are out there. Just look at Epic. Epic is trying to bait the console makers into thinking seriously about next-gen. The whole thing they did at GDC was to try to get people talking next-gen. They want to sell a new more advanced engine, and they know that they need a new round of hardware, to force everybody to jump up to UE5, and then that's even more money for them. I think if a next-gen console was really just around the corner (2012), there would have been MUCH more info leaked by now.
So, that takes care of 2012. Now, what about 2014? It's still a possibility... right? Well, I don't think so. Microsoft had first movers advantage last time, and while they aren't likely to have it again considering Nintendo, I think what really matters to them is to get out in front of Sony. The first year lead they had on Sony last time was a huge, huge factor in how everything played out. Microsoft is very aware of this. If they wait all the way till November 2014, they would likely have to share the spotlight with the PS4. If they launch in Fall 2013, they have the whole gaming audience to themselves. Nintendo has 2012 locked up with the Wii HD or whatever it's going to be called, and the PS4 would make sense in 2014 or 2015. Microsoft can't afford to gamble on the chance that it's 2015, thinking they have 2014 all to themselves, and then be caught by surprise.
November 2013 is the only logical option. End of line.