Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation....

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/mi...-next-gen-xbox


With the "leaking" of this information, it's basically the first shot fired in the next console war. Sure, all this info is revealing is that they are hiring a few people to work on the next console, which kinda insinuates that it's really far away from release (can you say November 2013?). Still, this is the first, legit, tidbit of information about a next-gen system from any of the big 3. Microsoft had to know that by putting this information out there, the word will get out that a new console isn't too far away. They have to know that the early adopter types that bought a 360 in 2005 and a PS3 in 2006 are starting to get antsy.

You mean late summer 2012. The console isn't coming out till late November 2013, so that means that if the developers get the dev kits by late summer 2012, everything will be on schedule.



Actually, I did a post in the PS3 section that got moved to the htpc section. The reason I didn't originally put it into the htpc section, is because that would simply be preaching to the choir. This post specifically relates to the next-gen Xbox, so obviously it belongs in the Xbox section. I wish there was a "General Gaming Discussion" section, so that everything didn't have to be so compartmentalized, but apparently, there is a fear of too much fanboyism and flame wars. It's sad really, considering the majority of people on AVS are in their late 20's, or 30's or 40's. I don't think we have that many 12 year old fanboys bouncing around our forums, so I'm not sure why there is so much fear about it.

Xbox 360 was launched in late November 2005

Xbox 720 will be launched in late November 2013


If you do the math, that is 8 years. Also, like has already been mentioned, it's not like the day the 720 comes out, all 360's in existence will self-destruct. By November 2013, the Xbox 360 will be $99, and should still be selling quite well in 3rd world countries. Games will continue to come out for it. No need to panic.

wild speculation?


It's hardly wild speculation. It's a VERY educated guess. First, let's take the..




November part of the equation:


The last major home console that didn't launch in November was the Playstation 2, which launched around Holloween 2000. Since then, the Xbox, GameCube, Xbox 360, Playstation 3 and Nintendo Wii have all launched in November. Why? Because a November launch gives the best chance at being that "hot" Xmas gift of the year. You want it to come out a week or two weeks prior to Thanksgiving. You want it to be totally sold out on the first day. Then, the day after Thanksgiving, you have limited quantities available at Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Target, etc, etc, with only 50 available per store. Long lines of people sleeping overnite, etc, etc. All the companies know how to generate the hype now in regards to a major console launch. The most logical strategy, is a week, to a week and a half prior to Thanksgiving. Mass hysteria at launch, mass hysteria on Black Friday, and then the great hunt between then and Xmas with limited shipments coming in and always selling out. Manipulated scarcity, along with the real hype that is created by the snowball effect of hearing about it being sold out and impossible to find.


The 2013 part of the equation:


The 2013 part is even more elementary. If we look logically at this situation, there are only 3 possible years in which a launch happens. 2012, 2013, 2014. Those are really the only possible years. 2010 is out of the question, and 2015 is way too late, especially for a company that has enjoyed the first movers advantage recently. 2012, 2013 and 2014 remain the only "logical" options. So, already, you're talking about a 33.3 percent chance of it being 2013.

However, if you consider the fact that they are just now hiring engineers to help design the architecture, a 2012 launch seems almost impossible. Dev Kits need to get out to the key developers at least 11 months in advance. Basically, you're talking December prior to the year of launch, by the LATEST. That would mean that Tiburon (Madden '14), Treyarch (Call of Duty), Bungie (Destiny), Bioware (Mass Effect 4), etc, etc, would need to have dev kits in hand by this December. The only scenario in which dev kits would be ready by this December, is if the LinkedIn listings were a total ruse to trick Sony into thinking they won't have a new console anytime soon. I would love to believe something like this, because I'd much rather have a 2012 launch, but again, it's just not logical if you read the tea leaves that are out there. Just look at Epic. Epic is trying to bait the console makers into thinking seriously about next-gen. The whole thing they did at GDC was to try to get people talking next-gen. They want to sell a new more advanced engine, and they know that they need a new round of hardware, to force everybody to jump up to UE5, and then that's even more money for them. I think if a next-gen console was really just around the corner (2012), there would have been MUCH more info leaked by now.


So, that takes care of 2012. Now, what about 2014? It's still a possibility... right? Well, I don't think so. Microsoft had first movers advantage last time, and while they aren't likely to have it again considering Nintendo, I think what really matters to them is to get out in front of Sony. The first year lead they had on Sony last time was a huge, huge factor in how everything played out. Microsoft is very aware of this. If they wait all the way till November 2014, they would likely have to share the spotlight with the PS4. If they launch in Fall 2013, they have the whole gaming audience to themselves. Nintendo has 2012 locked up with the Wii HD or whatever it's going to be called, and the PS4 would make sense in 2014 or 2015. Microsoft can't afford to gamble on the chance that it's 2015, thinking they have 2014 all to themselves, and then be caught by surprise.


November 2013 is the only logical option. End of line.