Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation.... - Page 114

Like kinect, I wouldn't expect it to change the way you play a "traditional" game. Just create new experiences beyond those. I don't see how it makes gears of war any better, but I could see how they can come up with some crazy new stuff.

@pcwebber111:

That article is a great and comprehensive technical presentation from an apparently real "Ideation" meeting circa 2010. It is complete with rough artwork...rough specifications...market analysis snapshots. I believe it is authentic. It could also just as easily be an internal documant from a MS alliance partner. But let's assume for the sake of this thread it was a MS document from 2010. There was probably a load of preliminary support documentation...information and demo materials on hand that could have supported such a presentation. But every scenario within it was and is subject to change. The presentation was flex kit formated...so it was adaptable for many early stage strategic audiences...potential strategic partners...strategic alliance networks...strategic investment networks... supply chain...strategic dev chain...and internal dev. I suspect MS went batshyt over the leak because it reveal clues that can be tracked to more current information...pertinent applications...relationships and relevant intentions. I don't think it changes anything relative to discussion on this thread. No one seems to be way off relative to their short term or long range thinking. Including the timeline debate. I still think MS will demo & announce a much better & more expensive version of this product sometime in 2013. And fully launch it in the spring/summer of 2014. If the economy totally craters...that launch date could and likely will be delayed.

@Anthony1:
On the Hologram glasses thing:
We have talked and hypothesized about numerous versions of this possibility at several points in this thread. Even as recent as 2-3 pages ago. Towit...it is a convergence technology which includes 3D...full HD per eye...motion tech...cross platform entertainment..Internet and other tech. In its grandest iteration (end of lifecycle) it likely will incorporate ultra HD in goggles or glasses of some sort...that will allow placement of gamers into immersive holographic 3D worlds. Or certainly allow them access to holographic 3D device images. BTW...this kind of technology is already common with Western Militaries and movie producers. To keep it simple...just let your mind go on that one. The holograhic environment will likely translate to a part of your controller device options in early NexGen game applications. Think COD where you dial up an inventory menu. In NexGen that could be a holographic icon that is always accessible via a Kinect hand, arm & head gesture from your sofa. Same thing for loadout...inventories...skills bank...health resources...driving devices...flying devices...& etc. That will leave the physical hand controller to handle a much smaller range of more precicion tasks.IMO a much superior approach over the WiiU tablet/controller if MS can pull it off. And later in the lifecycle...3D holography can be expanded along with motion control and environment specific glasses/goggles to present more immersion into actual game world themes themselves. That part is fine as long as I can do it sitting on my AST! But I suspect they will not fully heavy up that technology until the Next-NexGen consoles. And those may be the Goggles/glasses UltraHD TV themselves...linked to a holographic 3D world in the Cloud.

Yeah you're probably right, I think it's a fascinating read and am curious how this is gonna play out this fall considering how much MS seems to want the focus to be on Windows 8 and WP8. I guess we could have the trifecta and have them unveil all three major screens (tv/games, PC/tabs, phone) but somehow I doubt it. I'm assuming more along the lines of what you said; that they don't want these out there because they point to where they're going not where they are.

I'll even take a not very bold step farther...and predict that the overwhelming focus for MS in 2013 will be about convergence technologies, strategic partnerships and apps around Windows 8, "Surface" Tablet and XBox 360. Once those platforms are established...I suspect they will roar in with XBox Durango as a turbocharger in 2014 & 2015. The "Surface" launch sort of prestages that possibility. I just don't see MS trying to juggle all of those massive new launch balls at once in 2013. Especially if there is latent dependency between the different business units. Because if either or all of them failed...It would be Doomsday for their stock and shareholders. The paper even implied...albeit indirectly...that the bulk of new XBox activity would drop in the 2014-2015 timeframe.

2012 is the year of windows 8. I dont see anything else on their plate that precludes them from launching a nextbox next year. The "surface" tablet is nothing more than a windows 8 tablet, of which there will be dozens just like it. It's not a huge initiative at all. If anything, they're proving to be more and more platform neutral as time goes by, recognizing the reality of the current situation.

I disagree - I think Surface is a huge initiative. It's not just a Windows 8 tablet, because MS is making it.

MS is taking a huge risk here - they are basically competing with the companies that sell all their Windows licenses today.

That said, obviously the Durango will feature a lot of connectivity with Windows 8 tablets. And also, barrelbelly - I am 99.99999% sure the next Xbox is coming in 2013. 360 sales are tanking (down 40% year-over-year last month), and as E3 proved, these systems are running on fumes. I am completely expecting a horrible Christmas season for both PS3 and 360. MS keeping 360 as a headline system in 2013 is a ticket to irrelevance.

Maybe on a business level, but I saw nothing yesterday that was over and above anything that a 3rd party could have done with windows 8. It just seemed like a nice windows 8 tablet.

Given how Xbox smart glass is going to work cross platform with iOS and android....I'm not sure how relevant surface or any other device in particular is going to be to nextbox. Tablets and secondary screens in general - for sure. But the surface is just one of many. It HAS to be, otherwise this whole idea just isn't going to work out for them. The days of microsoft's platform dominance is over. They need to play nice with others, or risk becoming increasingly irrelevant.

2012...2013 and 2014 will be about Windows 8 and Surface in MS World.Your third sentence is exactly the point and represents "the" big risk for MS. Towit...IT BETTER NOT BE! Windows 8 and "Surface" must actually be better than the others. There must be a completely seamless convergence and integration between it and all other MS products (including XBox Durango & Kinect 2) that doesn't exist in the others without debilitating expense. I agree with you that it does not dissuade them from moving forward with "Durango". I just think "after" 2013 is a much more realistic scenario. The following article from Reuters sort of makes this point in a subtle...yet indirect way.

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20120618&id=15233034&ocid=ansmonyrel2

It will directly impact Windows 8, Surface, MS Office and other Business products...including even XBox development and testing. More importantly, it will allow them to socially network with business partners in a more transparent environment. That can be a very big deal between them and the Research, Developmment and supply chain worlds. Plus it is a standalone commercial business product with big potential...for the HPs and Dells of the world. The $1B+ investment just reinforces that their nearfield focus for 2013 & 2014 will be creating and nailing success for Windows and the strategic apps/opportunities around its orbit. XBox 360-S with Kinect is already a runaway success for MS. There is nothing for them to fear in XBox World in 2013 from Nintendo or Sony that they can't address in 2014 & beyond. They could actually screw that success up by prematurely blasting "Durango" into the marketplace too soon.

1. Xbox 360-S and Kinect sales are flatlining - like I said, sales last month were down forty percent from May 2011. In April sales were down 21% from April 2011.
2. The Wii U *is* a new hardware system and people will buy it this holiday season.
3. The game lineup for Xbox 360 and PS3 this holiday season are both shoddy and will *not* get any better in 2013. Why? because developers are working on Durango/PS4 games. There is a reason why Epic, Crytek, et. al. chose this year to show off their new engines.

2013 is the year for new hardware, bet on it.

Yeah...I'm kind of past the point of even considering anything but 2013. We're long past the point of blind speculation, there's been a building pile of evidence for months now. It's 2013.

Agreed, but the PS3 has three big games for 2013, so it is at least going out with a bang and not a whimper.

I'm actually starting to think Sony and MS made a big mistake by waiting until 2013. If sales are down 50% in November and December, it's going to look really bad.

i also think that PS4 will launch behind 720.. i think 720 in 2013 and ps4 in 2014.. there is a lot more smoke for 720 right now then there is for the ps4

Yeah....although Sony is generally a bit better about keeping secrets. Nothing really precludes a 2013 PS4...it's just more shrouded in mystery.

I'm hoping the last few years of struggle have taught them a few things. I feel like they're still an industry follower and not a leader....but I think they've got plenty of fight in them. If MS truly does bank on profitable hardware, and Sony comes out with far more powerful, subsidized hardware....this could get quite interesting.

Both systems will launch in 2013. Sony isn't going to give MS a free year again.

Sony will probably support the PS3 for longer than MS will the 360. Remember how God of War 2 launched on PS2 months after PS3 came out?

you and me both, i was kind of disappointed with their games this generation, compared to a plethora of games for ps2, it seemed the PS3 was lacking, don't get me wrong i loved uncharted, infamous was good, etc.. but how is it no Jax and Dexter, no Kingdom Hearts, still no Last guardian (or any sequel to shadow of colossus) and socom 4 was horrible... and the new games they came out with were FPS, i mean those are dime a dozen, i don't want to play resistance or killzone by top developers (i played them, but they felt kind of ordinary) but games that aren't a dime a dozen (meaning there are a million FPS i can play)..

Same here. I've never really cared for their exclusives this gen. The only ones I have any affinity for are uncharted and god of war, and even those are losing their shine. But I still respect the effort in putting gaming ahead of everything else. I think it'd be a healthy thing if they made it their goal to be the best gaming box, period. Thats a product that can justify its existence in an age of convergence.

In this months Edge Mgazazine the guy at at Epic saiod that Unreal 3 ran at ten times the power of the 360.

Later he said Unreal 4 was coming out in 2014 and said it woul;d make Unreal 3 look like childsplay further saying it would be a shame if the 720/ ps4 did not take adavantage of it the graphics card they were benchamrking there was the Nvidia 680 gtx

look for the 720 to do 4k resolution and 3d at 60 flops to take advantage of unreal 4 ; or else it will oudated by the time it hits.

Nope.

MS isn't making the system, their name is just associated with it. Same setup as the 360.

Okay why are you using NPD data just for one country to think that is why the new system will release in 2013. NPD doesnt represent workdwide sales. Even with the drop they are making money on the system and people are buying more games. Just because they had a drop isn't going to cause concern for MS. Your also talking about a drop that is during a drought of big releases which happens each year. That same system is also 15 months straight for NPD as the number one selling console.

360: 160K
PS3: 124K
3DS: 113.5K
Wii: 71K
Vita: 50-56k

If you say they need to react by releasing a console next year because of a drop then what the hell does Sony need to do? Release a third console and still support a PS3 and Vita that are on top of each other along with their financial issues?

MS should be dropping the price of the 360 or possibly dropping the arcade and making the 250GB system the new 199. I don't know if you forgot that MS has that advantage. Nothing today shows MS in some desperate situation compared to their competition. Out of the 3 companies MS is the only one that is profitable right now. MS doesn't have to drop in 2013. They have options and money.

Epic also said it is possible for the engine to run on the Wii and IOS. So which is it?

PS3 is outselling 360 in Europe, and Japan...

That's why people use year-over-year changes, to account for seasonal differences. People also use year-over-year when talking about lot of stuff. Saying that the January retail numbers are bad compared to December doesn't say anything at all. Likewise few people buy homes in the winter so saying that March sales were better than February doesn't tell a full picture.

Sony needs to release a new system too, as I pointed out. Because the PS3 business has a limited future.That's what investments are.

They could drop the price. That would mean that they would be making less money on each unit.

I don't think either Sony or Nintendo are "desperate". They need to release new systems because that's how the cycle goes. I don't think there is much interest left in either platform. The games at E3 looked tired - I don't see FPS sequel #50 driving growth in the platform. I think we've had enough months of lower sales to say that this is a trend that will not reverse itself. I think the sales of all platforms have peaked.

Pair this up with the fact that Epic unveiled UE4, targetting next-gen. And how every developer is out there hinting about next-gen development. And how all the cool 2013 multiplatform games at E3 were running on high-end PCs equipped similarly to how the next-gen consoles are rumored to be set up. 2013 is the year.

The fact that a product is profitable is not a good enough reason to stay standing still. Its always brought up, but Apple released the iPhone knowing full well it would break their iPod business. They did it anyway. Because if they didn't do it someone else will. The PSX was still really popular when Sony released the PS2. If MS really thinks they could stick with 360 exclusively until 2014, they will get their ass kicked.

Not on Wii. UE on iOS is modified, obviously.
Edited by number1laing - 6/19/12 at 1:58pm

but you're looking at the size of the markets wrong. the 360 is selling the most units worldwide and that's because the US is disproportionally larger. Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft have announced this at separate times to different groups (Sony in their shareholder meetings, Microsoft at E3 and other places, and Nintendo with internal data to their retailers).

2011 was the first year that 360 units worldwide sold the most (finally taking the title from Nintendo) and 2012 continues the trend. Sony did close the gap in 2009 and 2010 but since the release of the Kinect and the expansion of multimedia features, the gap has widened again.

http://www.geekwire.com/2012/xbox-360-tops-wii-ps3-1st-time-yearly-global-sales/#utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+geekwire+%28GeekWire%29

They can't just take a look at sales numbers and be reactionary like that. They almost certainly have contractual obligations to 3rd parties to release the system with a very narrow timeframe. That decision had to have been made by 2011 at the latest, and we already know they were aiming for 2013 in late 2010.

And the numbers aren't nearly as glowing for the first three months of 2012. The drop in the market is happening fast. Consumers and the rest of the industry are clearly anticipating a refresh. But we won't get one for at least another year or year and a half. So the real question is, what happens in the meantime? Do we start to see a race to the bottom in prices for new consoles?

It's also easy to forget there's a huge market saturation factor. Even if new sales go down, install base is still in the tens of millions, and the software is still coming in droves. There's no real calamity here.

I don't think there is a calamity, and I don't think releasing new hardware is the sign of an unhealthy market. In fact, the reason why this generation has gone on so long is because the economics of this generation have been so bad. If they were better, we would've seen new hardware earlier.

But even though this generation *has* extended, that doesn't mean the rest of the world stands still. Game developers are making more graphically intense games (Battlefield 3). Gamers are moving on to better hardware (PC). People do want more out of their set top box. Sony and MS have added a lot to the current hardware but it can only do so much.

I fully expect the big games to be big hits this holiday season, but like I said, I think hardware sales have peaked. And that's a problem even if Gears Judgement or whatever sells fine.

Far from a calamity, but software isn't coming in droves. Releases have slowed to a trickle, and not just because we're in the summertime gaming drought. And sales have also hit a big slump for software. Not horrible. But not great. Publishers--like gamers--want a new generation.

I didn't see any particular shortage of titles at e3.

Release totals for 2011 and 2012 are 30% lower than the prior five years (on console). The games that used to keep us occupied between the big games have disappeared from the industry completely.

Also, did you watch the same MS E3 conference that everyone else did?