Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation.... - Page 116

I see all the consoles doing this. If gaming tanks you have the online service to deliver bite size games as well as movies or whatever. Writing is on the wall IMHO. Next gen will be weak and Gears of Duty isn't helping.

No problemo C-Man. My hide is thick...hence the name. I don't mind healthy disagreement anyway. But how about this missile...if you expand the argument.

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=fe1a21cb-dbd7-4101-9a99-31bd746d2cd0

Moody's just downgraded the ratings for 15 of the major banks in the country. Translated...Bad timing for New product launches in the next few years unless a company can self finance. Business credit for inventory expansion R&D and working capital next year is going to have slim to no chance of success...even for the biggest of players. MS...Sony...and Nintendo better be prepared to self finance most of their launch activities along with their strategic alliance partners. Because the dollars just won't be there from the major Banking Institutions without major committment in blood, collateral & treasure. The banks will seek out the vulnerable quickie targets as you suggested...to get cheap victories. Meaning massive credit card expansion for consumer debt. But the opposite impact will also be in play to counter this. Meaning frozen growth and business expansion because of low access to commercial capital funds...because of poor bank credit ratings. Unemployment and its associated anxiety could rise faster as businesses adjust their inventories to this new commercial banking reality. That spells a console price war market in 2013 to me instead of a new product market.

A lot of stuff is going to be delayed, pushed back or canned because of this huge downgrade. MS is big enough to launch Durango in 2013 all by themselves. But my goodness...they better be right! Because the political climate in this country is going to be even more toxic...regardless of who wins the election in November. I think it was no accident that the boys from Redmond launched Halo 4 on the XBox 360 in late 2012. They know where their bread is buttered. They will have a good 16 month run with that game. And do Halo 5 in 2014-2016 as a launch title on Durango.

Here's the thing about gaming. We think video games is a huge market and it is today. But traditionally video games has been a niche. It's still a niche but the niche is bigger than ever. The number of people playing video games at a "video gamer" level is much smaller than other entertainment markets which appeal to a broader base. The goal of Microsoft, Sony, etc. has always been to make the family room the entertainment center. To control the family room was the goal. They started with the video gamer and decided to expand the niche by adding multimedia functionality and other features. To build the ecosystem.

But Apple and the expansion of casual social gaming has altered everything. Now instead of starting with a niche population and bringing the masses to the console, mobile devices are starting with the masses and bringing gaming to them.

I see a contraction of the dedicated video game market back to the niche that it used to be. There will always be a demand for the big video game by this niche population. The masses will find that the casual gaming on their everyday devices is more than good enough for them and that they don't need to buy dedicated hardware any more.

So we may have reached the point where dedicated gaming hardware has peaked and may just be returning to historical levels as new gaming avenues pop up. Not saying that mobile devices will become the dominant form of video gaming. Rather, saying that there are so many avenues of gaming now (dedicated hardware, mobile devices, PCs, etc.) that no dedicated system will ever return to these heights again, irregardless of the economy.

Article: Leaked Xbox 720 pricing and details likely real

http://news.yahoo.com/leaked-xbox-720-pricing-details-likely-real-180045372.html

Nothing in that "article" indicates any reason it is real. MS really plans on releasing a $300 720 with built in Kinect 2.0? They are currently selling a 360 with Kinect for $300. So they are going to take a huge loss on the new machine or it will be another Wii.

Consoles aside, we're already seeing a financially conservative corporate strategy play out among gaming publishers. Almost all the big releases that had been planned for this year have been pushed into 2013. It's clear that everyone assumes this console cycle will be longer than we think. Everyone's stretching out their portfolios as far as they can. Continual teases keep investors happy, and perpetual delays keeps their bottom lines happy. I expect 2013 will be even drier of releases than 2012.
Pretty much. The traditional gaming market peaked a few years ago. The death of the Wii market was the death of casual gaming on consoles.

But the thing that you're overlooking is the role of the non-gaming market among console purchases. The 360 has seen a recent boom thanks to its media push. They're not even chasing "casual" gamers anymore (since Apple already stole them from Nintendo). They're chasing the market that Apple has yet to court: the living room media consumers. They seem to be doing a good job of it. Curious to see how MS markets their next console. It may not even be sold as primarily a gaming machine.

Yeah, they seem to think that since Microsoft asked them to take it down that makes it real. Could of been asked to take it down because the prices was so low they didn't want people to think it was going to be that cheap.

Well, it sites that it was a copy righted material.... If MS didn't OWN the copy right, nothing their attorneys said or did could force that site to take it down. I could make something up like that and post it here, could MS's attorneys force avs to take it down on grounds of copy right?

MS owns the copyrights of all the names in the doc, of course they don't want a forgery out in the wild looking official.

That document has already been discussed to death over the past week on just about every site and gaming forum (including this one, and in this thread, no less). Regardless of whether it's real or not, it's two years old. A lot has changed in the industry in that amount of time, and even more will have changed by the time MS finally does announce a price point, release date, and system specs.

Assuming it's real, all that document/presentation tells us is what MS was thinking back in 2010. Doesn't tell us anything about their current plans. Nor does it tell us anything about their future plans. It's an interesting document, but utterly meaningless.

It's not *utterly* meaningless. It does only tell us about their plans in late 2010, but in all likelihood, the plans haven't radically changed. It tells us that what we'll see wont be far from that. If they were aiming for $299, anything more than $399 or less than $249 seems very unlikely. If they were aiming for 6-8x more power, anything more than 10x seems unlikely, and even that is still an undershoot based on 8 years of progress. If they were aiming for 2013, that's still by far the most likely year.

It had a level of specificity that's indicative of a plan that's already been set in motion. It shouldn't be outright dismissed. It sets boundaries for what we should expect.

It doesn't set boundaries. It sets goals based on projections based on current and future technologies. For example, if their 2012 estimate of the cost of memory for 2013/2014 is lower than their 2010 estimate for what they thought memory would cost in, they could either pocket the change or add more RAM before it's set in stone. If it's impossible for them to get a large stock of cheap 250GB drives, then they'll go to higher capacities that are more readily available and cheaper. There are some moving targets in components that they don't have to lock down yet. Even for the GPU, when Microsoft started designing the next Xbox in 2005, they had performance goals that they thought could be met by 2013/2014. And built toward those goals. But if technology progressed faster than their 2005 projections, of course they're going to adjust their goals. If AMD goes to Microsoft in 2009 and says hey, we can definitely beat those 2005 projections for the same budget, of course Microsoft would jump at the higher specs.

all i want to know where and when i can preorder my master chief fortaleza glasses enabled helmet!

And that's all Im saying. Its a sketch. Just because you can't rely on every exact detail doesn't mean it's not useful as a rough guide.

For instance, seeing how ridiculous hard drive prices are due to the thailand flooding, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more modest capacities than we'd otherwise have expected. And seeing how SSD prices have cratered in the past year, they might try to shove in it as much flash as they can. If they can get a 2:1 ratio or more of flash cache to system ram, and a solid SSD controller, they could pull off some pretty wicked things. We're talking huge open world games with absolutely no load times. Texture popup is history. Games that boot in 5 seconds.

http://www.x360magazine.com/general/xbox-720-spring-2014-launch-makes-more-sense-says-pachter/

X360: When do you see Microsoft releasing a follow-up to the Xbox 360?

Michael Pachter: If I were a betting man (and I am), I would say a spring 2014 launch makes more sense, since hard core Xbots could get a console without having to compete with moms buying gifts at holiday, and it is likely that they won’t manufacture more than a few million units for launch.



Now, I don't believe in Pachter any more than any other source. It's all speculative conjecture anyway.

But he did bring up a point. I don't know how valid the point is since there are 2 sides to it. But if you can't make the next Xbox in quantities of any significance, why release it in the fall of 2013 when all it'll do is stall holiday purchases of 360-related merchandise that is available in sizable quantities? A spring release would allow Microsoft to benefit from their traditional big holiday sales and still reap the benefits of a spring release of a next-gen system. So instead of priming weak spring console sales through sales discounts, you can release a new console.

The flip side is that a holiday release, even one with very limited quantities would stoke anticipation and demand that would carry over, either to generate more demand or to spill over into buying 360 gear as a holiday substitute. But would mom and dad buy a 360 system as a gift substitute for the next Xbox that's sold out? Or would they be willing to wait? Or worse yet, mom and dad decide to buy something totally different like an iPad or PC?

A spring or later release would also give Microsoft more time to put the system through the ringer so that nothing like the RROD ever happens to the early adopter.

How many systems have had a successful spring launch?

Besides, it's Patcher, he is never right. His predictions always need patching down the road.

looking at release dates, I saw these systems for post holiday spring/early summer:

Nintendo 3DS, Nintendo 64, Sega Saturn, Vectrex, ColecoVision, Atari 5200, Atari 7800, NES in Japan, Nintendo Gameboy in Japan, SNES in Europe, Neo Geo, 3DO

Almost every single one of those had a rough start or was an outright failure.

Ah, you mean a modified remake of the classic helmet that everyone paid insane money for on release, yet now can't be given away on eBay?

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/in-game/47896816/#47896816

Looks like MS is stealthily putting together quite a new and different gaming platform under Surface, Windows Phone 8 and WIndows 8. It sort of reminds me about something Daekwan suggested way back in this thread about a Mac-Mini type device with plug-in perpherals like a Blu-Ray player...Mobile phone & etc. For all we know this may be their preferred new pathway to the future. It would be interesting if the XBox 360 could just plug & play and/or stream through Surface...with complete controller & cloud capability. Many folks wouldn't need Durango if that was a possibility. Especially in 2013. There is definitely a strong convergence going on inside MS between Windows 8...mobile...gaming...Kinect...XBox 360/Durango and XBox Live. And they are debugging it all around the XBox 360. I am convinced MS will continue to push this debugging...forward integration envelope along with creative pricing models on the XBox 360 in 2013. Then launch XBox Durango with all of the convergence integration built in around a more powerful & expensive console in Q'2-Q'3 2014. If they get good traction with Surface Win-8...XBox gaming integration...I wouldn't even be surprised to see the Durango launch get kicked to Q'4 2014 or 2015. Especially if game Devs are happy as clams making games & money for the integrated system.I have always opined that MS would take a multi-pronged and Multi SKU approach in NexGen. And I still think XBox 360 can be the core priced SKU component of that strategy. Interestingly enough...the XBox 360 itself could actually become the cheap DD only console in NexGen. Even though graphics and games won't resolve and render like Durango or a top shelf PC...for most consumers it will be good enough and affordable. Especially if they can just play XBox 360 games from the cloud...multiple Discs or their console through Surface. MS is toying around with a lot of interesting stuff pre Next Gen. If they can pull off all of the convergence and segmentation...they will have the potential to be the hands down Next Geeration Winner.
Edited by barrelbelly - 6/23/12 at 10:20am

most consoles before the 360 had staggered releasing across the world. actually, it was quite impressive that the 360 released worldwide at pretty much the same time. the Japanese consoles usually released in Japan quite some time before the US and then Europe.

the 3DO, worldwide, was released on March 20, 1994 according to the wiki page. didn't bother to check its accuracy.
the N64 released worldwide on March 1, 1997 according to wikipedia.

PS2 in Japan.

The thing is that the basic Surfaces are just, basically, iPads. Locked down, similar specs and architecture (ARM), etc. No doubt will MS be integrating it into the cloud like they are integrating 360 into the cloud but let's not get ahead of ourselves. It may do some sort of streaming with 360 and it will definitely do stuff with SmartGlass but it's gaming capabilities won't be much beyond a current iPad.

You are probably right. But it will be disappointing if correct. But IMO...if they are going into the hardware bizz...they need to step up and make a definitive statement. Such as making the top shelf Win 8 PC hardware that has XBox OS capability embedded on a parallel HDD out of the box. Such a rig could seamlessly converge worlds between Windows Live and XBox Live. It would clearly differentiate MS PC's from all others. Move them to a premium price market like Apple. And allow users to upgrade & improve the GPU...CPU and other peripherals if desired. I would much prefer to buy an Uber WIn 8 PC/XBox HTPC hybrid for $1000+ than just adding another gaming console to my inventory. Plus...it could lock MS in on the top end gaming shelf with lucrattive addons that can make a real difference as technology continues to improve. Oh well...I can always wish.

There may be an expandable xbox one day, very doubtful it'll be by anything but proprietary hardware. But there will never, ever be a PC that can play xbox games.

I want the same thing too, its a great idea on paper - but hackers will literally destroy the entire xbox live experience. They'll try to sandbox it, virtualize it, whatever they can to keep custom code from running on it - they'll fail miserably. They cannot allow anything even remotely windows related to interact with xbox code in any way whatsoever.

Agree. As much as people complain about a closed network MS made a smart move in 2001 to keep live closed. No way they would converge the two. It has proven to work the way it is while adding more options to the service. Even in 2006 we had talks of concerns about Sony's direction with PSN being an open platform with no standards. That open service got hacked.

MS *has* tried to integrate the XBL 'experience' on the PC, in the form of Games for Windows Live. Play a GfWL game and you have your XBL friends list and achievements. Get a cheevo on a GfWL game and it shows up on your XBL list (some achievement junkies play the same game on Xbox and PC for that reason). I'm pretty sure that Shadowrun supported cross platform play too.

Problem is, it's terribly half-assed like everything MS has done in the PC gaming space since 2005. Steam is just a better service in every way so that's what people have chosen. It's at the point where GfWL support is considered a negative - people waiting for Dark Souls PC got upset when they found out it was GfWL. They wanted Steamworks support but Namco could probably use all the XBL code already in the game so they chose that.

I see no evidence that MS cares about PC gaming at all. MS used to be huge in the PC game space, but they chose 360 instead. Their apathy towards the platform left an opening that Valve exploited. PC gamers aren't going to move back to MS and they definitely aren't going to pay for Xbox Live Gold, ever.

http://www.guru3d.com/news/origin-pc-reveals-gaming-pc-with-builtin-xbox-360/
Edited by number1laing - 6/26/12 at 8:51am

I agree with you BD2003. I was just wishing out loud because I recently spent over $2000 building a totally new PC/Gaming rig. It is a real category killer. But As I was building it out with a more technically savy friend of mine...I wondered out loud...What if MS had a parallel SSD XBox drive option. By that I meant...all things XBox NexGen contained on MS's own SSD. But with a capability to boot up independently and utilize the CPU/GPU/Disk Drive architecture of the new PC hardware. That seemed like a reasonable security workaround to me, because the XBox SSD would be proprietary to MS just like Windows. And it would be a wonderful new peripheral revenue source for XBox. But...to my thinking it would...more importantly...provide a gateway to technical upgradability sought by many PC gaming enthusiasts like myself. My friend...who builds custom PCs for a living...agreed with you and mboojigga. Unlike y'all though...he lacks diplomacy. He told me to stop wasting my time thinking about impossibilities...and let's just finish building the damn ASUS Rig! He opined that the weakness in the security link would be in the Windows domain. And he therefore didn't think MS would ever risk XBox that way. Both of us settled on a probable convergence of the XBox Live and Windows Live gaming worlds in the future...in the Cloud somewhere...his way of brushing me off and getting me focused on the task at hand.

But I just can't let the idea go. The hurdle just doesn't seem too big to me for a company like MS. Couldn't the XBox drive...the size of a phone, tablet or Sata...be completely firewalled against Windows? I bet Apple could do it easily. If such an option was available...I'd sure buy it. And use it exclusively with my PC for games, so as to fully utilize DX-11 and 4k by 2k upscaling when it becomes more prevalent in 24"-34" Monitors. I'd still buy Durango for use in my home theater and for the rest of the family. But the convergence between the 2 could be really cool IMO. Maybe even a better option would be to retro the concept for XBox 360 way after the Durango launch. So as to give PC users access to all of the great XBox 360 games under superior PC graphics conditions and potential processing power.

Since I consider everyone on this thread a cyber friend...fire away...whether we agree or not on some debates. None of you are nearly as rude and intemperate as my A-hole PC builder buddie Mikhail. He and I have come real close to serious SUMO Red Neck 'Rasslin matches in the past.
Edited by barrelbelly - 6/26/12 at 10:30am

Sounds like a rad setup. Once you get to playing games on PC, though, you won't be dealing with MS much past the OS. PC gaming is done primarily off Steam nowadays, but a lot of online stores have their own clients. I bought a few games from GameFly (formerly Direct2Drive) and had to install their client. But that's just a client - I don't have to open up GameFly to play, say, The Witcher or Crysis.

Steam is the big network. They have friends list, achievements, matchmaking, cloud saves, voice chat, automatic updating, DLC support, etc. Even some features XBL doesn't have like groups and a mod repository.

Point is while MS has been focused on 360 other people have gone and built a network for PC gamers.

I got SSF4AE and that is a GFWL game. It's actually pretty horrible compared to Steam, though it works on a basic level. Point is, PC gaming has very much passed MS by. I don't think the type of people building expensive PCs have much interest in the Xbox side... and that's Microsoft's fault.