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Microsoft fires the first shot in the "NEXT" generation.... - Page 144  

post #4291 of 7006
2/8/13 at 12:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by s1njin View Post

Well, in a few days we'll know more of what the PS4 is all about; this should help put conversations like this in focus. I'm personally looking very much forward to what Sony is going to say. The rumors are just killing me.
I agree. The more I think about it, the more likely I am to just get both systems. All of my friends will get the xbox, regardless of specs, because they blindly hate Sony and won't give anything a chance, so I will usually play the big FPS games with them on the xbox. But there are some exclusives I really like on Sony, God of War, MLB, ratchet, stuff like that. So I will just get them both.

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post #4292 of 7006
2/8/13 at 1:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

Looks like there could be a leadership war brewing at MS. And it could threaten NextBox if shareholders and the board get skittish over anemic returns on Win 8, Surface and they get squeamish over lackluster performance of Nintendo's NextGen WiiU console at retail. Poor performance by core MS brands could push XBox way off the 2013 MS priority list IMO. Ballmer is clearly under fire right now. And may be using XBox Durango as his Waterloo. If it fails...he is toast. I sorta agree with the article...In terms of MS losing focus. I've always said, XBox OS and Live could end up being a proprietary MS SSD that can link with any top shelf HTPC. Making and selling $2.00-$10.00 games can't be what their NextGen console is even indirectly about. And a war with their retail partners...on top of a potential war with their commercial partners over Win 8 and surface could seriously disrupt their long range plan.

IGN Quote:

"Xbox does not fit into Microsoft’s portfolio," he claims. "If you talk about maybe the software for it and the services, okay, but making that hardware box? My God. There is no money there!
"Yes, maybe it attracted the younger generation who want a game console, but look at the graphical quality on all these games consoles today," he explained. "Compared with the graphic systems you can have on the PC, they’re awful, they’re just awful! They’re always a generation or two behind for the simple reason that they need to sell these boxes for 250 bucks."

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/02/08/microsoft-insider-claims-it-should-refocus-on-pc

Interesting, but I'd count against it. Still, and I'm saying this in the most non-fanboy way possible, it's always perplexed me why shareholders have been putting up with the MS Xbox gaming division as an investment. The 360 did a hell of a lot better than the first xbox, but they still had that 3 billion dollar writedown to do what was right and back RROD issues to their early adopters (which can't be said about Sony and their "frak you, buy a new one" response to YLOD).

Then again Amazon enjoys the same perplexing shareholder confidence vs their lack of returns (actually, it's much more perplexing and disproportional with them). In both cases, us consumers are getting a huge win.

Still, if that confidence changes, it can mean big changes and quickly. Such is life as a publicly traded company in America.
post #4293 of 7006
2/8/13 at 1:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

None of this Next Gen console stuff mean much of anything to me anymore. All of my excitement for a totally new kind of gaming experience has been captured by the anticipated consumer launch of Oculus Rift in 2014. The following HL2 mod on the rift is simply stunning in full screen mode. And its just the tip of the iceberg IMO on how this technology will allow me to play Next Gen games on my Lazy Boy. I posted more information over on the Oculus Rift thread in HTPC section. I really wish this was available to buy right now!

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/28320/oculus-rift-used-with-half-life-2-and-a-vr-head-and-gun-tracking-mod-incredible-results/index.html

As a gamer I like it, but like any peripheral it's going to be niche. The average console gamer is not going to want to jack into a heavy headset like that, hell they don't even like 3D glasses currently!

I love how it would revolutionize first person views and control mechanics.... but I just don't see it happening. It not new either, people have been pushing this stuff for years. Every time there's big buzz, it gets released pricey, and it's forgotten in 3 months after release.
post #4294 of 7006
2/8/13 at 2:18pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by barrelbelly View Post

Looks like there could be a leadership war brewing at MS. And it could threaten NextBox if shareholders and the board get skittish over anemic returns on Win 8, Surface and they get squeamish over lackluster performance of Nintendo's NextGen WiiU console at retail. Poor performance by core MS brands could push XBox way off the 2013 MS priority list IMO. Ballmer is clearly under fire right now. And may be using XBox Durango as his Waterloo. If it fails...he is toast. I sorta agree with the article...In terms of MS losing focus. I've always said, XBox OS and Live could end up being a proprietary MS SSD that can link with any top shelf HTPC. Making and selling $2.00-$10.00 games can't be what their NextGen console is even indirectly about. And a war with their retail partners...on top of a potential war with their commercial partners over Win 8 and surface could seriously disrupt their long range plan.

IGN Quote:

"Xbox does not fit into Microsoft’s portfolio," he claims. "If you talk about maybe the software for it and the services, okay, but making that hardware box? My God. There is no money there!
"Yes, maybe it attracted the younger generation who want a game console, but look at the graphical quality on all these games consoles today," he explained. "Compared with the graphic systems you can have on the PC, they’re awful, they’re just awful! They’re always a generation or two behind for the simple reason that they need to sell these boxes for 250 bucks."

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/02/08/microsoft-insider-claims-it-should-refocus-on-pc

The 360 has made them money hand over fist for a while now. The initial loss cannot compare to the last how many qtr's of pure profit. MS wants to incorperate their ecosystem into everything and Xbox will push that a long way. the Nextbox will have "Window's" and will get people accostumed to its qurks. After people learn it, they will get used to it, and then people will talk about windows 7 like it was windows ME.
post #4295 of 7006
2/8/13 at 2:35pm
Microsoft is still Billions in the hole on their Xbox brand. This image is outdated, but as of spring 2011 they still had 5 billion to go.

ZUJHD.png
post #4296 of 7006
2/8/13 at 2:44pm
what kind of bogus diagram is that? it doesn't match up with what the business papers, magazines, and earning reports have been saying for the past 5 years.
post #4297 of 7006
2/8/13 at 3:33pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianbat420 View Post

The 360 has made them money hand over fist for a while now. The initial loss cannot compare to the last how many qtr's of pure profit. MS wants to incorperate their ecosystem into everything and Xbox will push that a long way. the Nextbox will have "Window's" and will get people accostumed to its qurks. After people learn it, they will get used to it, and then people will talk about windows 7 like it was windows ME.

I think that is what has MS stakeholders jittery today. Many think MS have become unfocused and actually opened beach heads against its core business by advancing singularly in areas where it normally relies on strategic partners. Towit: they believe MS could quickly become cash starved because it is fighting on too many fronts. WHile its former partners create new alliances and develop new ecosystems. Apple went through a stage like this in the late 1980's-1990's. Remember the John Scully debacle? Steve Jobs had to come back to the company to save it. And the rest is history. Ballmer is betting the ranch on XBox if he launches it in 2013. This is after betting the ranch on Windows 8, Surface and a host of "ecosystem" acquisitions. Time will certainly tell if it all comes together for him and MS. But I'm not so sure anymore

In many ways, the gaming industry appears to be seeking a completely new center of gravity. I think MS sees this. And is jabbing at it with ideas like Illumiroom. But is unwilling to take the full plunge to drive it, like Steve Jobs would...if presented with the same puzzle. Halo 4 was dreadfully boring to me. Making it prettier and bigger will not be enough to make me hop on the NextBox bandwagon early. Especially in 2013-2015. If Ballmer goes down in 2013...so will a 2013 launch window for XBox Durango IMO. I think we gaming enthusiasts need to watch Executive movement as closely as we watch XBox rumors to filter what is really going on at MS.
post #4298 of 7006
2/8/13 at 3:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlysublime View Post

what kind of bogus diagram is that? it doesn't match up with what the business papers, magazines, and earning reports have been saying for the past 5 years.

It goes off of the yearly Total for their gaming divisions. They post a profit it goes up, they post a loss it goes down. It is two years out of date, but it is accurate for the time it represents.
post #4299 of 7006
2/8/13 at 4:48pm
saw this and remember all the doom and gloom threads about games like Infinity Blade showing the death of consoles...

http://www.polygon.com/2013/2/8/3968500/epic-impossible-studios-closed-infinity-blade-dungeons-delay

Epic Games is closing Impossible Studios, Infinity Blade Dungeons on hold
post #4300 of 7006
2/8/13 at 4:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlysublime View Post

saw this and remember all the doom and gloom threads about games like Infinity Blade showing the death of consoles...

http://www.polygon.com/2013/2/8/3968500/epic-impossible-studios-closed-infinity-blade-dungeons-delay

Epic Games is closing Impossible Studios, Infinity Blade Dungeons on hold

The mobile and F2P bubble begun to deflate some time ago, it will pop completely before long.
post #4301 of 7006
2/8/13 at 5:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlysublime View Post

what kind of bogus diagram is that? it doesn't match up with what the business papers, magazines, and earning reports have been saying for the past 5 years.

Market share != Profitability

MS has cornered the US "high end" console marketplace, but they're still not much better off then they were last go around. RROD KILLED them, although they have made a modest clawback due to popularity of Kinect. If the shareholders revolt, that graph is why.

The amusing thing is how much Nintendo killed it this Generation. Talk about striking gold!
post #4302 of 7006
2/8/13 at 5:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlysublime View Post

what kind of bogus diagram is that? it doesn't match up with what the business papers, magazines, and earning reports have been saying for the past 5 years.

AGREED. A quick google search of sony losses on PS3 turn up the opposite of that spreadsheet...

bad link
post #4303 of 7006
2/8/13 at 6:03pm
Tyrant, you really need a reality grip... you've been drinking the kool-aid a bit too much with Pendragon.
post #4304 of 7006
2/8/13 at 6:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianbat420 View Post

AGREED. A quick google search of sony losses on PS3 turn up the opposite of that spreadsheet...

bad link

The spreadsheet clearly shows Sony's losses on the PS3. Remember, this is their entire gaming divisions overall opperations for each year graphed out. (using their own financial reports from each year)

It also shows MS' losses as well as when both finally started to turn it around to a profit. When I find a new one that covers 2012 and 2013 I will start using it. (and it will show the effects of the 3DS price drop and Nintendo's first ever loss since they entered gaming)
post #4305 of 7006
2/8/13 at 7:03pm
Still a quality thread I see, carry on.
post #4306 of 7006
2/8/13 at 8:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlysublime View Post

Tyrant, you really need a reality grip... you've been drinking the kool-aid a bit too much with Pendragon.

No koolaide here, the graph is correct. Sony ain't so hot this Gen either, so I'm not sure why the protest against the truth. Both companies dug huge holes because of unforeseen consequences, and the market turning sour in 2007/08. The graph shows MS turning profitable much sooner than Sony, but it's still not enough to recoup their previous losses. It also shows Sony evaporating investment in the PS3, after their nice revenue stream from the PS2.

Anyways, It's all part of the reason this next gen isn't going to be bleeding edge tech. They both gambled and lost last time.

If the rumor above ends up coming to pass (I doubt it), this is why.
Edited by TyrantII - 2/8/13 at 8:41pm
post #4307 of 7006
2/9/13 at 8:25am
That graph is technically "correct," but it's also highly misleading. MS has spent a lot of money getting into the console space. But those costs are sunk costs and don't get measured in earnings reports going forward.

There's been a lot of press lately that's been covering current and former MS execs who have talked about MS's "stop Sony at any cost" mentality. They were originally considering buying out Sega in order to slow Sony, but decided instead to start up their own console platform from scratch. Very expensive choice, but they're goal from day 1 has been to keep Sony from taking over the living room. Which is also why MS is now pushing so hard on the media front, and doesn't seem to care much about gaming performance (just look at the recent comparison of both upcoming consoles). It's clear that MS dropped billions in order to keep Sony from dominating the living room, and that continues to be MS's driving motivation.

In any event, MS has been making profits steadily through subscriptions and media partnerships (not so much through games or gaming hardware). Those initial losses don't matter any more.
post #4308 of 7006
2/9/13 at 9:00am
While the costs are sunk, you can bet they are remembered and considered when discussing long term plans like a a new system. Sony doesn't want another PS3 just like Microsoft doesn't want another Xbox 1 or mass hardware failure. (the 360 was profitable before year one was up, a wholesale reduction of almost $200, RRoD was the only reason they weren't profitable much sooner)

Microsoft has established their brand and is getting close to making a true profit on all their investments. Sony blew all their profits just to keep up. Nintendo ignored all of them and continued to rake in the cash.
post #4309 of 7006
2/9/13 at 9:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

While the costs are sunk, you can bet they are remembered and considered when discussing long term plans like a a new system. Sony doesn't want another PS3 just like Microsoft doesn't want another Xbox 1 or mass hardware failure. (the 360 was profitable before year one was up, a wholesale reduction of almost $200, RRoD was the only reason they weren't profitable much sooner)

Microsoft has established their brand and is getting close to making a true profit on all their investments. Sony blew all their profits just to keep up. Nintendo ignored all of them and continued to rake in the cash.

Until they decided to make a controller into a tablet.

wink.gif
post #4310 of 7006
2/9/13 at 9:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

Until they decided to make a controller into a tablet.

wink.gif

The losses started with the 3DS price drop. They ended around the time the Wii U launched. The Wii U is profitable with the sale of one first party game. NSMBU has over 60% attach rate right now and Nintendo Land did fairly well. Nintendo is back to printing money as usual, the Wii U will be profitable on it's own by years end.

Anyway, this is not a Nintendo board so back on topic of Microsoft's pursuit of living room domination at all costs. With Sony no longer a huge threat, will they shift all focus to beating Apple or be content with the space they have carved out?
post #4311 of 7006
2/9/13 at 9:52am
surprised that people think shareholders hate money and MS gaming division has been a "success".. these guys are millionaires for a reason, not because they made bad investments. The funny thing is i have always said the Wii was my least favorite console, but (by a large margin) most favorite from a business standpoint. Although there are no concrete numbers for overall (since inception) p and l for the gaming division, it is estimated around 5 billion loss on original xbox and we know for a fact they dug a hole of 4-5 billion on the 360.. yes they started turning a profit around 2007, but it still doesn't make up for the losses (and this doesn't even include all the other costs!). The 360 was my fav of this gen, but i can do math.
let me give you another example, years ago (before the bailout) people used to talk about all the market share GM had and how "successful" the Corvette, etc.. were, but when you looked at the bottom line they were losing money! i would rather run a small company making 100K in profit than a 6 billion company losing 1 billion per year! We can talk about market share all day long and anything else, but a good business (read Good to Great) does what GE did when Jack Welch took over, they cut the divisions that aren't extremely profitable and move the jobs/money/resource into the divisions that are profitable... it is that simple..
post #4312 of 7006
2/9/13 at 9:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

The losses started with the 3DS price drop. They ended around the time the Wii U launched. The Wii U is profitable with the sale of one first party game. NSMBU has over 60% attach rate right now and Nintendo Land did fairly well. Nintendo is back to printing money as usual, the Wii U will be profitable on it's own by years end.

Anyway, this is not a Nintendo board so back on topic of Microsoft's pursuit of living room domination at all costs. With Sony no longer a huge threat, will they shift all focus to beating Apple or be content with the space they have carved out?

Since when is Sony not a huge threat? The start of a new generation is like a total reset. If Sony can blow it after the PS2, the 360 being successful is no indication the nextbox is going to be ascendant. They've been taking their eye off the ball and I think the path they're going down is one where they're mediocre at everything, and mediocrity doesn't sell.
post #4313 of 7006
2/9/13 at 10:01am
"Since when is Sony not a huge threat? The start of a new generation is like a total reset."

Sony has no cash on hand, and poor credit. They can't play this game for much longer. And no, there really is nothing that can save Sony. They flubbed a console at an important time, their TV business got eaten by Samsung and LG, their phone business got eaten by Apple, and they've had a string of poor upper management.

No, the real threat is Apple. They haven't entered the space yet, but the moment that they decide to everyone else will crap their pants. Like Microsoft of a decade and a half ago, Apple has a mountain of cash dollars to spend on a project like this. Unlike Microsoft, they are much more averse to taking large losses for extended periods of time to enter a new market. It may very well be that Apple decides that the living room isn't worth the effort, but the idea that they might is what keeps Ballmer up at night.
post #4314 of 7006
2/9/13 at 10:08am
But, you could have said the same thing about Apple 15 years ago. Remember Dell's CEO telling Jobs he should pay back his investors? (Dell just bought back all shares from investors and went private this week, LOL!)

Things can and do change on a dime, especially when dealing with technology. A good idea, or a good deal to consumers, can change the name of the game. Nintendo pulled off the good idea last gen.
post #4315 of 7006
2/9/13 at 10:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

But, you could have said the same thing about Apple 15 years ago. Remember Dell's CEO telling Jobs he should pay back his investors? (Dell just bought back all shares from investors and went private this week, LOL!)

Things can and do change on a dime, especially when dealing with technology. A good idea, or a good deal to consumers, can change the name of the game. Nintendo pulled off the good idea last gen.

you can't compare sony to Nintendo, they are completely different in almost every area with a small overlap in the fact they both are in video games, cash is different, stock is different, business is wayyy different, etc.. you have a point, but the situation is much different, it is much more of an uphill battle now with sony, then it was with N this gen..
post #4316 of 7006
2/9/13 at 10:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by benjamin-benjami View Post

you can't compare sony to Nintendo, they are completely different in almost every area with a small overlap in the fact they both are in video games, cash is different, stock is different, business is wayyy different, etc..

Both Sony and Nintendo have had systems that were mediocre, and they had blockbusters. If Nintendo continues to phone it in with the Wii U, and Microsoft loses focus with the nextbox, the PS4 could be incredibly successful like the PS2. Or they botch it completely. No way to know right now, but I'd hardly start counting anyone out.
post #4317 of 7006
2/9/13 at 10:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by bd2003 View Post

Both Sony and Nintendo have had systems that were mediocre, and they had blockbusters. If Nintendo continues to phone it in with the Wii U, and Microsoft loses focus with the nextbox, the PS4 could be incredibly successful like the PS2. Or they botch it completely. No way to know right now, but I'd hardly start counting anyone out.

not counting them out, by any stretch, just saying that with the pressure they are under it will be more of a "jump".. i loved my ps2 and would love to have another, but usually when a company is having missteps in other areas of business (tv's, etc..) it is rare they will all of a sudden have a large success.. trust me i am still waiting for kingdom hearts 3 and the last guardian.. i want sony to succeed.. and i am sure i will own a PS4, my only point was is that Nintendo success was more "achievable" with less roadblocks than sony's is.. not saying it won't happen, just saying it will be harder..
post #4318 of 7006
2/9/13 at 11:42am
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

That graph is technically "correct," but it's also highly misleading. MS has spent a lot of money getting into the console space. But those costs are sunk costs and don't get measured in earnings reports going forward.

There's been a lot of press lately that's been covering current and former MS execs who have talked about MS's "stop Sony at any cost" mentality. They were originally considering buying out Sega in order to slow Sony, but decided instead to start up their own console platform from scratch. Very expensive choice, but they're goal from day 1 has been to keep Sony from taking over the living room. Which is also why MS is now pushing so hard on the media front, and doesn't seem to care much about gaming performance (just look at the recent comparison of both upcoming consoles). It's clear that MS dropped billions in order to keep Sony from dominating the living room, and that continues to be MS's driving motivation.

In any event, MS has been making profits steadily through subscriptions and media partnerships (not so much through games or gaming hardware). Those initial losses don't matter any more.

My bolded point within your quote is exactly the point those former and current MS Execs and nervous shareholders made and why why MS stakeholders are near a point of mutiny with Steve Ballmer. Sony didn't dominate the living room. And it had little to nothing to do with MS, Instead it was Samsung who became dominant from a display standpoint...and the Sat/cable providers and telcos like Verizon who successfully defended their turfs who did it. Thus leaving MS a little bit vulnerable to Apple and Google as they neglected their core business in the eyes of those Execs and stakeholders. NextBox won't fix this perception. But it could go a long way toward helping MS rally to at least a superior position against Sony. Especially if it uses NextGen to successfully to converge its living room base with its PC/Windows base via gaming and media. Such a success would definitely help MS stave off a potentially looming Apple/Samsung alliance/threat. Heck...in that scenario, I could actually foresee MS and Sony becoming strategic allies just to protect their respective a.s.s.es. And maybe that is really why both of their NextGen consoles' rumored specs seem to be so close and coordinated. Even their potential announcements seem to be more coordinated than antagonistic.
post #4319 of 7006
2/9/13 at 11:47am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

While the costs are sunk, you can bet they are remembered and considered when discussing long term plans like a a new system. Sony doesn't want another PS3 just like Microsoft doesn't want another Xbox 1 or mass hardware failure. (the 360 was profitable before year one was up, a wholesale reduction of almost $200, RRoD was the only reason they weren't profitable much sooner)

Microsoft has established their brand and is getting close to making a true profit on all their investments. Sony blew all their profits just to keep up. Nintendo ignored all of them and continued to rake in the cash.

That is only true if they can continue to extend the life of the XBox 360 for at least 5 more years. Durango will eat a lot into that potnetial profitability...plus add a whole new bucket of risk exposure. The XBox 360 is money in the bank for them as long as they can hold the price points...keep devs creating content for it...expand XBLA through it...and reinforce it with a higher end and compatible alternative (Durango). That is the pathway to profitability for MS...Devs; Sony with a similar PS3/4 strategy; and Nintendo with WiiU.
post #4320 of 7006
2/9/13 at 12:02pm
great points BB
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