Sensitivity and Specificity
Thinking about this further, I think Nick's question actually goes to the question of "sensitivity and specificity." Here is the "wiki" on S&S:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensiti...nd_specificity
Sensitivity refers to a test's tendency to produce "false negatives". IOW, how often does the test show a negative result when the actual result is positive?
Specificity refers to a test's tendency to produce "false positives". IOW, how often does the test show a positive result when the actual result is negative?
I think Nick's question is primarily addressing the sensitivity of the blind ABX test... how often is there a real difference in sound quality that the ABX can not identify. Bottom line, I think this is a very legitimate question, and one for which I don't believe we have a good answer.
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EXAMPLE:
From the medical field, let me give an example:
When evaluating a patient for coronary artery disease, (CAD), the first test one would perform is an electrocardiogram, (ECG). The resting ECG is only about 20% to 70% sensitive for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease. IOW, 30 to 80% of patients who actually have coronary artery disease may not show that disease on a resting ECG. It is considered a fairly low sensitivity test.
If the patient doesn't have positive resting ECG findings for CAD, but the physician still suspects the patient has CAD, the next test used to confirm the diagnosis is the cardiac stress test. You put the patient on a treadmill and perform an ECG while they exercise. A cardiac stress test has a much higher sensitivity, along the order of 60 to 80%. Still, some 20 to 40% of patients can have CAD, and not show a positive result on stress testing.
The next test used to make the diagnosis is coronary angiography. A catheter is placed in the coronary artery, and radio-opaque dye is injected into the artery. X-rays are taken to visualize the inside of the coronary artery. This test is considered to be very highly sensitive. It is considered the "gold standard" for the diagnosis of CAD. The physician can actually *see* the disease and quantitative its' severity.
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This concept of sensitivity and specificity is used in every aspect of laboratory and clinical medicine. Every test is scrutinized for how often it produces false negatives and false positives. Obviously, you don't want to miss a diagnosis because of a false negative test. Just as importantly, you don't want to over-diagnose a medical condition and treat patients who don't actually have the condition based on a false positive test. You want a test that accurately diagnoses those patient who have the condition, while also accurately identifies those patients who don't have the condition. The ideal test has 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity. There are no such tests. Nonetheless, it is the goal.
To bring this back to ABX testing, I think Nick is questioning the sensitivity of the ABX test. (Specificity, (false positives), is not a part of his question.) IOW, Nick is asking, how often does this test produce a "false negative", where an actual difference exists, but the test is not sensitive enough to delineate it. This is a very real phenomenon in any kind of testing. I know of no documentation of the sensitivity of this test. If other forum members are aware of this information, please share it.
The lack of sensitivity/specificity information on the ABX test is yet another reason why I think it is inappropriate to extrapolate these test results. The combination of lack of sensitivity information, plus the limited sample size in this test, plus the "controversial" use of a switch, limits its applicability to broader generalizations about the audibility of these mods. There are simply too many unanswered questions to allow for the broader application of these results.
Craig