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Will low cost LED projectors displace LCD and plasmas?? - Page 5

post #121 of 194
This whole thread is ridiculous.

Projectors are DIM period.

Come out with a 10,000 lumen projecor at a cheap price and then maybe this thread will be worth talking about.

Course people talk about LCD all the time and it isn't worth talking about either.
post #122 of 194
Current mainstream flatscreens (LCD and Plasmas) are just small - tiny actually, compared to the image size produced by projectors.
I currently have a 120 inch diagonal 16:9 home cinema screen with an HD DLP LED widescreen projector, with blu-ray player, DTS/Dolby Digital receiver, and full surround sound speaker system, in a light-controlled, home theater room. I also have a Samsung 52" HD 120Hz LCD in the bedroom.
I watch news, sitcoms, and other television programming on the "small" 52 inch screen, but I watch blu-ray, some DVDs, and HD content on the large 120" screen.
There is no comparison: the smaller flatscreen is fun, but the giant projection screen is an IMMERSIVE experience that envelops me in the movie experience.
The title of this thread is:
"Will low cost LED projectors displace LCD and plasmas??"
For fans who want the real, immersive cinema experience at home, and who care enough to setup a light-controlled room . . . LED DLP projectors already HAVE replaced LCD and plasma displays !!!
Current flatscreens are tiny in size compared to what cinema should be. Sure, projectors ARE dimmer compared to the direct-view screens' output, but I can go into my completely darkened home theater room and compensate for the lower lumens output of projectors, to such an extent that in the dark cinema room, scenes in films are glaringly bright. There is no way to compensate for the small size of flatscreens by setting up a room; a 55" or 60", 70", or even the newest 80" flatscreen is still small.
post #123 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKnox View Post

The title of this thread is:
"Will low cost LED projectors displace LCD and plasmas??"
For fans who want the real, immersive cinema experience at home, and who care enough to setup a light-controlled room . . . LED DLP projectors already HAVE replaced LCD and plasma displays !!!

You necro-ed an old thread, but that notwithstanding... "displace" implies that the first thing is in place, and the latter moves it out. To that extent, projectors have not only failed to displace LCDs and plasmas, the trend is precisely the opposite. With 80-inch (and soon 90-inch) LCDs that are affordable, flatscreens are beginning to displace the tiny number of projectors sold into homes.
post #124 of 194
Rogo, you have a point on the literal meaning of “replace”, as it refers to the general population, but you have lost the whole meaning of individual, objective quality . . .

As big a fan as I am of home cinema, I am an even more ardent fan of the fine points of the English language, and you have correctly addressed an aspect of my use of the term “replace” that I had not considered. As you pointed out, “displace” or “replace” does indeed inherently imply that a thing was in place first and then supplanted by another thing. Yes, that so said, it's true that projectors have not replaced, or displaced flatscreens in the general population. Experience has shown though, that "the masses" , (the majority of the public that is), will choose the most convenient from among a selection of choices, even if the most convenient choice is not the wisest or highest quality choice.
I am a fan of current flatscreen image quality yes. It’s just that until a 120 inch or larger flatscreen is available at a certain “affordable” price range, I think that it’s reasonable to enjoy both technologies right now. In my own personal example though, I did actually replace my 55 inch LCD flatscreen in my home theater room with an Acer K330 LED projector, which is superior: I sold the 55 inch LCD flatscreen and bought the projector!
Rogo, I’m a fan of a truly huge image size (which is admittedly subjective, and for me currently, that huge size is 120 inches or more in a home environment). It matters not if that huge size is accomplished by flatscreen or projector, I just want least a ten foot diagonal screen at acceptable image quality, and LED DLP projectors are providing that right now; flatscreens are not.
Unless, and until a flatscreen matches a projector at a similar size and cost, I will use a projector for movies. Additionally, there is nothing wrong with bringing back a dead (necro) post thread, if there is still a salient point to be made.
If I quoted anyone, it would not be the words of a dictator, Joseph Stalin, who, in the effort to suppress free thought and speech, ordered the execution of so many brave souls who merely disagreed with his own views. Aren’t you glad that we all have the right to our own ideas, thoughts, and free expression here on the AVSforum?
America is Victorious against Socialism”.
post #125 of 194
A costly high power consumption flat screen "boat anchor" is no comparison to a less than $500 LED projector. It may be brighter but it's not smarter IMHO. Peace. Regards.
post #126 of 194
These 2 guys with 80" Sharp would beg to differ and with a very valid reason: Ambient lights
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...9#post22069859

And here is the TCL 110" TV that a forumer keep refering to. I doubt it will be very much mass produced, but it wouldn't be "small" and probably available in 3 years.
http://www.tcl.com/en.php/news/938.html

And socialism is not communism. Unbridled capitalism is not elixir too, if we hadn't yet learnt from the past 4 years. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice...
post #127 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKnox View Post

If I quoted anyone, it would not be the words of a dictator, Joseph Stalin, who, in the effort to suppress free thought and speech, ordered the execution of so many brave souls who merely disagreed with his own views. Aren't you glad that we all have the right to our own ideas, thoughts, and free expression here on the AVSforum?
America is Victorious against Socialism.

There's a very specific reason I quote Stalin in my signature. You'd need a lot of history to understand why. You should know I find Stalin to be one of the 2-3 most reprehensible figures in the entire history of mankind.

Also, I responded to your concerns in a PM; I'm sorry you found it also appropriate to respond to this in public. As this thread is necro-ed and -- in my opinion -- irrelevant, I'll let it rest here.
post #128 of 194
Revisiting the idea a year later, I would add that I think 4k could have a role to play in this. Large screens are a requirement to fully enjoy 4k, or in other words, 4k makes large screens more worth it. As time goes on, more people might want a large screen but they'll inevitably run into the problems of cost and the physical size of large flat screens. Some might see projectors, though with their own set of disadvantages, to be a smart compromise.

I think one of the biggest problems is just awareness of projectors. Two of my friends got projectors this past year and they absolutely love it, but they said it's just not something they would have ever thought of if I hadn't recommended it to them. I also brought my cheap 720p Acer H5360BD projector when visiting friends and family over the holidays to show photos and watch movies together. Everyone was amazed by the size and picture quality (despite being very modest to us videophiles), but I similarly got comments that they never would have thought of owning a projector. I was also told that they never knew projectors could look so good, having only had experience with older business projectors.

So I think the potential is certainly there, it's just a big question of how many people will discover that potential.
post #129 of 194
This thread is not "dead"; projection systems currently offer a huge image size that conventional flatscreen technology (LCD, plasma, and even the emerging OLED technology) cannot even come close to matching for anywhere near a similar price. Airion, in your post that begins, "Revisiting the idea a year later", you have stated more intelligently than I ever have in the forum, the largely unknown benefits of projectors. You addressed the problems of cost and physical size (weight) of current large flatscreens. I too have shown many friends just how good a truly large projected image can be, and several own a projector now.
Anyone here in the AVSforum who points out the benefits of flatscreens; I am not ever, in any way stating that projectors currently are the equal of flatscreens in such aspects of measurable contrast and brightness; I have both technologies: a Samsung 52 inch, 120Hz 1080P LCD, and an Acer K330 LED HD DLP projector.
When I have a group of friends over to watch blu-ray films, we sure don't want to crowd around a 52" flatscreen, regardless of its superior contrast and brightness, rather we all enjoy the huge 120 inch projection screen. If anyone here in the forum actually OWNS a 100 inch or larger flatscreen, (such as the cited TCL 110", or the Sharp 108 inch LB-1085 - at a cost of $100,000 or more, or any similar huge flatscreen ), then rock on with that setup.
Otherwise, I do not care how much anyone "talks up" a $100,000 flatscreen that is a dream for most people; my lowly little $500 LED DLP HD projector is providing a 120 inch thoroughly enjoyable viewing experience RIGHT NOW, May 2012 (you are so right on point, teac4010). I don't even care about the much smaller 80 inch Sharp Aquos LCDs either; inform me when these displays get serious and reach 100 or more inches for under a $1000, and I'll get one.
Here is a high concept that I sincerely hope doesn't fall upon deaf ears . . . my girlfriend and I were sincerely, emotionally, upliftingly impacted by the cinematic power of viewing Martin Scorcese's film "Hugo", as seen at home on a 120 inch projection screen, precisely because we experienced this unforgettable motion picture in a dark room, not caring about having enough ambient light to do anything else, but take in this powerful film.
Consider this: do millions of movie-goers pay money to watch "The Avengers" (or any other well-made film) in "ambient light", which is to say enough light to do whatever else it is that you have in mind that is more important that you just must do during a great film? Get off your cell phones, your iPad, magazines, or whatever else is really a distraction from fully seeing a great cinema experience. If you want to read the newspaper, surf the 'net, check email, talk, or any of a variety of other distractions that detract from devoting the full attention that a masterpiece film requires, then watch a bright flatscreen in ambient light. I watch my 52 Inch screen too . . . for local news and other ephemeral, fleeting things. Projectors currently rule at large sizes (100+ inches).
post #130 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKnox View Post

Projectors currently rule at large sizes (100+ inches).

And affordable home projectors have been available for about a decade. And they are in <1% of homes in the U.S.

The notion this is an awareness problem strains credulity. This is a "don't want to deal with it" problem. For those willing to deal with it, there are viable solutions (although no serious videophile is using a $500 projector).

The fact remains that projectors have as much chance at displacing flat panels as homing pigeons have of displacing text messaging.
post #131 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

As this thread is necro-ed and -- in my opinion -- irrelevant, I'll let it rest here.

Mmmm, for one poster who considers this a "necro-ed" and "irrelevant" thread, that certain poster sure seems to be reading, posting, and putting life into this thread! (Isn't it the definition of hypocrisy to say one thing, yet do another?)

It's irrelevant if <1% of households have a projector; less than 1% of the population might ever have the insight to truly appreciate the works of certain philosophers, artists, and visionaries. Since when is being in the 99% of the population necessarily a good thing? That just means being common and ordinary, or average.
I don't wish to rush off to the local electronics retailer to buy and own what 99% of everyone else has, rather, I want what the few forward-thinking pioneers have, which in the specific case of the topic of this forum, is a gigantic (100+ inches) widescreen that in cinematic terms, looks closer to the visual characteristics of what is seen in the projected image in the public cinema, more than any over-blown unnatural looking flatscreen.
I agree that no serious videophile would own and enjoy an LED DLP projector (such as the Acer K330, Viewsonic PLED-W500, Optoma ML500, or NEC L50W), but a serious cinephile (that is, a fan of the cinema, not just crude, coarse, mass-appeal video programming) would be wise to marvel at the artistic subtleties of a projected image. - RonKnox cinephile since 1974
post #132 of 194
I can't believe this thread reached five pages at all. I currently own and use a bulb based DLP projector for everyday viewing. It is literally my "TV". Even I would not argue that this solution would ever be accepted in the mainstream. Most people can't be bothered to control ambient light enough to use a plasma, let alone a projector, and the screens that would allow them to use projectors in ambient light (SI Black Diamond, DNP Supernova, etc.) are all just as expensive as a flat screen (a 110" Black Diamond Zero Edge it $4100). No matter how bright the projector gets or how long the light source lasts the fact that light control is a prerequisite for use stops it dead in its tracks.

When flexible flat screens are available that can be rolled up and shipped like front projection screens then front projection will be killed off completely for all but the most extreme sizes. Even those may one day be displaced.

Even I have considered dumping my front projection set up for a Sharp 80". Or even the Panasonic 65VT50 as I can technically get to a 30 degree subtended viewing angle if I'm careful with placement. And I've been using front projection as a TV for twelve years.
post #133 of 194
In any case, business seems to be good:

3D Projector Sales Soar 121% in Q3 (2011).

Pacific Media Finds Worldwide Projector Market Neared 10 Million Units
in 2011. 50% growth in "mainstream" projectors. There's a lot of numbers and statements to sift through here, and not all of it is really applicable to the topic here (sales for large venues where you would never consider a flat panel). But, big jump in pico projectors including these new LED ones.

That's only 2011, and one data point doesn't indicate a trend, but I see no reason to be discouraged.
post #134 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Max View Post

I can't believe this thread reached five pages at all. I currently own and use a bulb based DLP projector for everyday viewing. It is literally my "TV". Even I would not argue that this solution would ever be accepted in the mainstream.

Just to note, I don't think they'd be accepted in the mainstream either. Mainly what we discussed here is how popular LED projectors (or laser, or LED/laser, etc) could be if they were to become significantly brighter. LED at least solves the problem of bulb life, so that's one less thing to worry about. If they were to become much brighter, I could see them having something like a 10% market share. In other words, much more common than projectors today, but still a minority in the grand scheme of things.
post #135 of 194
Most of the general public will never post, or even be aware of this enlightnening AVSforum, will they? All of us here on the forum are then in a small minority of the public already aren't we? Aren't we the few who care enough to discuss the finer points of visual and sound quality? So it is, that I am astounded by just how many posters here are obsessed with what is mainstream, (or 99%, or just most popular), Some posters will vehemently support the point that somehow what is more popular is "better".
Sean Max, sincerely . . . thank you for posting that most people can't be bothered to control ambient light - this is so true. No matter how great the inherent capabilities of a display, if the display (direct view or projection) is put into a harsh light environment, it will not look nearly as good as it could in a light-controlled environment.
I have been in situations where friends would ask me to adjust the picture on their plasma or LCD screens because the image didn't look good. There would actually be direct sunlight shining in through windows right onto the flatscreen display . . . and I was asked to adjust the picture to make it look good.
Some people aren't even willing to close the blinds or curtains; it's more important to them to see the nice view of the outside and have the sunlight streaming in. I have also found that these are the same people who, even though they may play a television program or movie on their screen, they pay relatively little attention to it, and are scarcely aware of what happens in the movies or programming that they watch.
The point is that a light-controlled environment is necessary for optimum picture quality. Cinemas have no windows and turn down the light level way low or off to show films, don't they?
I too, have considered getting the Sharp 80 inch flatscreen or a Panasonic 65 inch, but there is still something real and psychologically engaging about watching a 100 inch or larger screen . . . . sitting closer to a 65" or 80" screen to compensate doesn't have the same effect somehow.
Yes, if and when roll-up HD displays (of OLED or other technology) at a huge (100 inch +) size become available, then those roll-up displays will be preferable to flatscreens or projectors, I would think.
Until that time though, of all the 100 inch or larger home displays in use, how many are flatscreens and how many are front projectors? I'd think that the vast majority of 100 inch plus sized displays currently in use in homes are projectors, which is my basis for stating that currently, projectors rule in the 100 inch plus size, that's all.
post #136 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

In any case, business seems to be good:

3D Projector Sales Soar 121% in Q3 (2011).

Pacific Media Finds Worldwide Projector Market Neared 10 Million Units
in 2011. 50% growth in "mainstream" projectors. There's a lot of numbers and statements to sift through here, and not all of it is really applicable to the topic here (sales for large venues where you would never consider a flat panel). But, big jump in pico projectors including these new LED ones.

That's only 2011, and one data point doesn't indicate a trend, but I see no reason to be discouraged.

There's no data there. It just means that 2-D projectors are being replaced by 3-D projectors. Look, I am not trying to discourage anyone from buying a home-theater projector. But it's a market that has not taken off and will not take off. It's never going to happen. If anything, the market is smaller than it was a few years ago and it's very likely to shrink in the coming years.

If you want one, buy one. There are great projectors for very little money. If you want to encourage your friends, do that. Just inform them of the giant downsides. And be aware that $5000 90" LCDs are likely to be coming this year. It's possible that $6000 100" LCDs are coming as soon as next year. All of these work in any lighting conditions, including the 80" sets you can buy right now. The vanishingly small number of people who buy projectors for use in the home will only shrink from here as some portion of them choose LCD -- and eventually OLED too.

Every problem with projectors was going to be solved. First, the amazing screens were going to solve the ambient problem. Then, as Sean said, they came and cost as much as giant flat panels. And honestly, they mitigate -- but do not solve -- the problem. Second, LEDs were going to solve the lamp problems. They came, but were even less bright than the lamp-based units. And honestly, I'm not going to restart this discussion but LEDs are not getting significantly brighter any longer and Google etendue if you want to understand why LEDs can't just be bunched up endlessly. Are they getting brighter? Yes. But you should understand from the lighting industry's struggle to produce a single viable 100-watt-bulb equivalent how much of a struggle that's been.

So, no, this is not happening. Sorry.

And that doesn't mean if you want a projector you shouldn't buy one. By all means you should.
post #137 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

There's no data there. It just means that 2-D projectors are being replaced by 3-D projectors.

Quite likely a large portion, we don't know for sure. And what of the second article?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

And be aware that $5000 90" LCDs are likely to be coming this year. It's possible that $6000 100" LCDs are coming as soon as next year. All of these work in any lighting conditions, including the 80" sets you can buy right now.

Speaking for me and my two friends who got projectors in the past year, those prices are far more than we're willing to spend (almost ten times as much). We're also unwilling to own a 100" flat piece of electronics despite the benefits in brightness. I don't think we're outliers in either regard. A lot of people are either going to get a big screen for the price and form factor of a projector, or not at all. I don't think it's a simple question of whether or not large flat panels are on the market.

You don't have to apologize for your position by the way, I don't have any personal stake in whether projectors become more common or not.
post #138 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonKnox View Post

Until that time though, of all the 100 inch or larger home displays in use, how many are flatscreens and how many are front projectors? I'd think that the vast majority of 100 inch plus sized displays currently in use in homes are projectors, which is my basis for stating that currently, projectors rule in the 100 inch plus size, that's all.

I actually think this is true for the next 5 years at least, but that's not the topic of the thread. Read the OP. Projectors will not be a solution for <100" displays in majority of homes, except maybe for schools etc
post #139 of 194
Airion, you're only outliers in this sense: There are always people like you. People who want a giant image and have a limited budget. Folks like you have existed for years. The market has served you. Yet there is no evidence of a trend indicating growth in that segment.

Nothing in the PMA report indicates there was growth, either. In fact, it implies the N. America market was barely up and that's off some terrible comps in the prior year. Bottom line: a tiny market remains tiny. It exists, but remains tiny. I suspect products will exist to serve folks like you for years to come.
post #140 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Yet there is no evidence of a trend indicating growth in that segment.

Nothing in the PMA report indicates there was growth, either. In fact, it implies the N. America market was barely up and that's off some terrible comps in the prior year.

I agree it doesn't indicate a trend, as it's only in comparison to the previous year, in particular a year with a reeling economy. I'm sure there's some number spinning in the report as well, but it's otherwise filled with talk of "gains," "record setting sales," etc. The whole point of the report is that sales are up.

Overall I'd say it shows the projector market is yet fluid and changing. Pico projector sales went from 1.1 million sales to 1.8. A lot of these sales are probably cannibalizing traditional projector sales, but clearly people are receptive to this newly available niche of smaller yet dimmer LED technology. There's also slightly larger, significantly brighter LED/laser projectors out there. There's also RED Epic's laser technology which might trickle down in five, ten years.

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to predict that a large increase in projectors is likely. It's just that while you see an impossibility, I see potential. EDIT: maybe plausible vs implausible is a better characterization.
post #141 of 194
You do understand that pico projectors are those tiny, handheld projectors right? They are not capable of anywhere near a 100" image nor are they intended for that purpose.

And while I don't really want to dampen your enthusiasm, in a decade plus at AVS, folks like yourself have come along and been all jazzed for a revolution in home projection. There's always a reason why now is the time. And it's never happened. The technological trends in flat panels -- I'd argue -- make the prospects of it happening worse than ever, not better.
post #142 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

You do understand that pico projectors are those tiny, handheld projectors right? They are not capable of anywhere near a 100" image nor are they intended for that purpose.

And they don't need to. It's the same idea, they're intended to do what would otherwise be done by a (say, 32" or 40") flat panel. Or, do what simply can't be done with a small phone display. I doubt they're literally displacing any flat panels, but they're stealing their jobs, eating their lunches, so to speak.
post #143 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

And they don't need to. It's the same idea, they're intended to do what would otherwise be done by a (say, 32" or 40") flat panel. Or, do what simply can't be done with a small phone display. I doubt they're literally displacing any flat panels, but they're stealing their jobs, eating their lunches, so to speak.

Yeah, this is where we just part company. I doubt a single pico projector has been sold that has caused a 32-40" LCD to go unsold anywhere. And certainly, even if some infinitesimal number of people have chosen that very odd path, it's not a trend, it's not going to limit the future sales of flat panels, and I've certainly never met a single person who asked me, "should I get a pico projector instead of a TV?"
post #144 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

I doubt they're literally displacing any flat panels,

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Yeah, this is where we just part company. I doubt a single pico projector has been sold that has caused a 32-40" LCD to go unsold anywhere.

I feel a fair amount of your responses here are addressing an argument I'm not actually making.
post #145 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

I feel a fair amount of your responses here are addressing an argument I'm not actually making.

In all fairness, the following statements seem to be contradictory, hence (I assume) rogo's response:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

I doubt they're literally displacing any flat panels

vs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

but they're stealing their jobs, eating their lunches, so to speak.

Either they're being sold in leiu of flat panels, or they're not, and nothing I've seen so far indicates that it's the former. Micro- and pico-LED projectors are being sold to a niche market that simply wouldn't exist if the projectors themselves didn't - if anything, people are buying them instead of cheap bulb-based projectors. I have to agree with rogo on this, there simply isn't any data suggesting that low-cost LED projectors are displacing flat panels, now or in the future. He hit the nail on the head with this post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

And while I don't really want to dampen your enthusiasm, in a decade plus at AVS, folks like yourself have come along and been all jazzed for a revolution in home projection. There's always a reason why now is the time. And it's never happened. The technological trends in flat panels -- I'd argue -- make the prospects of it happening worse than ever, not better.

Don't get me wrong, I bought my Acer K330 for deployements because it's small, easy to transport, I don't have to worry about bulb life, and it works fine up to a 70" or 80" screen. CA gets pretty significant as you move away from the center of the screen, it can't focus the top and bottom portions of the screen simultaneously, and the black levels are just OK, but I'm not expecting $5000 of performance from a $500 projector. All things being equal, if I had the choice of watching this with it's 80" image or your average 60" flat screen TV, I'd take the TV. But all things are not equal, and I just don't see someone who is in the market for a 60" TV looking at cheap LED projectors for some of the reasons I listed above.
post #146 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

I feel a fair amount of your responses here are addressing an argument I'm not actually making.

I feel you are seeking to have your cake and eat it too. HogPilot's post really makes my points better than I could hope to, though, so I'll let it speak for me.
post #147 of 194
What I mean is, whereas before people might have turned to their flat panel (or small phone display) to show some photos, they can now choose to do so with an LED pico projector. They're doing the job of the flat panel in terms of actual usage, not sales. It's not a question of sales of one or the other. Instead of owning just a flat panel, some people are happy to own a flat panel AND an LED pico projector. As I said, such projectors don't literally displace the flat panel. These technology advances offer something completely different than traditional projectors, and open up a new niche to appeal to different people. Probably people who never would have bought or spent any time using a projector otherwise.

Now, I know we're talking miniscule numbers here, a drop in the bucket, so please don't go crazy saying I'm predicting an imminent revolution. My point is, the projector market isn't necessarily static, offering the same thing, the same pros and cons, with the same improvements year on year. Pico projectors showing up in phones means I'm not going to make absolute assumptions of where projectors can and cannot go when looking into the future.
post #148 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

What I mean is, whereas before people might have turned to their flat panel (or small phone display) to show some photos, they can now choose to do so with an LED pico projector. They're doing the job of the flat panel in terms of actual usage, not sales. It's not a question of sales of one or the other. Instead of owning just a flat panel, some people are happy to own a flat panel AND an LED pico projector. As I said, such projectors don't literally displace the flat panel.

I'm still seeing two positions from you here, but I'll agree when you say that portable LED projectors - whether we're talking independent projectors or pico-projectors built into other devices - are, at best, serving a niche not previously served. At worst they're displacing larger bulb-based projectors where portability is paramount.

Flat panel displays are an entirely different animal compared to portable LED projectors because 1) they're not portable, 2) they offer significantly better PQ in any measurable and observable aspect except for screen size, 3) they can produce a very usable picture in a much wider range of viewing environments in terms of light output and achievable CR, and 4) they're in an entirely different price range. The two markets overlap very little, and you seem to agree with this in your next statement:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

These technology advances offer something completely different than traditional projectors, and open up a new niche to appeal to different people.

I also agree with this statement:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

Probably people who never would have bought or spent any time using a projector otherwise.

Two other guys on this deployment ended up buying projectors similar to mine (after seeing it in action), and there's a 3rd who is strongly considering it. They like it because it's cheap, it's portable, and they don't have to worry about the cost of bulbs down the road. Out of my 5 previous deployments - on which I always had a small-ish bulb-based projector - I had a similar rate of inquiries, yet only one person has ever purchased a bulb PJ after talking to me. And almost no person I've ever talked to about my home theater setup has ever considered any kind of projector as a viable alternative for a flat panel display in any way. But within the projector market, I think it goes without saying that when you decrease the price and increase the life-span (of the light source, in this case), and you're going to find a new demographic of interested people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

Now, I know we're talking miniscule numbers here, a drop in the bucket, so please don't go crazy saying I'm predicting an imminent revolution. My point is, the projector market isn't necessarily static, offering the same thing, the same pros and cons, with the same improvements year on year. Pico projectors showing up in phones means I'm not going to make absolute assumptions of where projectors can and cannot go when looking into the future.

Yes, portable projectors based on light sources with long lives may be slightly expanding the potential use for projectors, but they haven't done anything to inherently change the basic limitations of front projection - light output, and ambient light pollution. Projector technology has never been static, will continue to grow in evolutionary steps, but the above limitations will ALWAYS conceivably remain. I'd like to think that there will be a day in 25 or 50 years where giant 50' OLED 16K displays that can roll out like a sheet will replace FP all together (and the viewing limitations that go along with it). That's been a pipe dream for a long time, and may continue to be, but as we've seen with OLED, you never know when you'll be surprised by something new and great in this industry.
post #149 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by HogPilot View Post

I'm still seeing two positions from you here,

If you could describe which two positions you're seeing, I could try to address it. Maybe I'm just not expressing my opinion well enough. Just keep in mind I was only talking about current pico projectors, which is a bit of a tangent from the topic of previous posts about the possibility of hypothetical high lumen LED projectors replacing large screen flat panels.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HogPilot View Post

Flat panel displays are an entirely different animal

I agree, exactly why I think the pico projectors have carved a new niche. Perhaps ironically, the (pico) projectors have the advantage of convenience over flat panels in such a niche.

I think your talk of your LED projector and the other guys who bought one on your latest deployment underscore the significance of eliminating the bulb life problem, as well as the simple problem of awareness which rogo doesn't buy. Just curious, what do you do for audio? I use headphones or simple stereo PC speakers when on the road.

Also, I agree if we can get affordable OLED sheets in the future, projectors are done, good riddance!
post #150 of 194
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airion View Post

I think your talk of your LED projector and the other guys who bought one on your latest deployment underscore the significance of eliminating the bulb life
problem, as well as the simple problem of awareness which rogo doesn't buy.

The claim of "if only people knew about projectors, tons more people would buy them..." has been the refuge of the projector fan community for a decade now. It's not like projectors are a secret. No, really, they aren't.

Do some people not know? Of course. Similarly, I have neighbors who don't know that if they installed solar PV on a solar lease from Solar City (or equivalent), they've save money on their electric bill in the first month -- and every month thereafter. But even if they all knew, solar panel sales wouldn't suddenly rise to the level of LCD TVs. Projectors are similar, you see.

Most people just don't want a projector. No, really, they don't. And while I agree that there are applications for pico projectors, they really have no relationship to flat panels at all. In fact, we're back to the whole notion of displacement. Pico projectors don't displace anything; they create a small, but real, new market. I have no axe to grind about that and, in fact, really just don't care one way or the other. It's not a videophile technology, it's not applicable to me in any context, and it's not especially interesting at this point, although it was exciting when the first ones came out just to see those tiny projectors do anything at all.

Nothing is going to change to bring more projectors into the living room. For every person who meets someone with one and joins the giant-screen revolution, someone else de-commissions theirs for a giant Sharp LCD. Look, I have a friend who used to have a 12-foot screen. He now watches his 40-inch Samsung. He's as valid a choice-maker as anyone else's friend. If there was a change in the sales of living-room projectors, we'd see it in the data. But if anything, the long run numbers have been down. Companies that used to make money in the market have gone away or abandoned it. There was -- for a time -- a decent presence of projectors at Fry's and even Best Buy around here. Now? Neither has anything on display.

I expect we'll see a 100-inch LCD within a year or two but even if we don't, it seems inevitable that it'll happen within a few years. As the decade wears on, I suspect more and more manufacturers will drop out of the home-theater projector market as it continues to wither and be displaced by giant panels. And, yes, if someday there are really giant OLEDs, it will go away entirely. But even if there aren't, the niche will get smaller because nothing has changed the compromises -- and fundamentally nothing really can.
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