For those on the group buy list waiting for their woofers to be built and shipped, John has provided an update on the status of the second batch of woofers: http://www.aespeakers.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2808&start=240#p14873
For those keeping track, a timeline of builds to date:
The original post in the group buy thread (http://www.aespeakers.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2808#p13167
) had the group buy closing on October 22, 2011. Parts from China were to be delivered in November and all group buy woofers would "tentatively" be built by mid December, 2011. We all know the parts got delayed in production in China and John is going it alone as opposed to having someone helping him out to machine and build woofers like he suggests in that first post. But it's prudent to note that he felt he could build all woofers in a few weeks with a little help. He may not have expected nearly 250 group buy woofer orders when developing that estimate, though.
6/20/12 - Steel arrives from China (http://www.aespeakers.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2808&start=195#p14544
7/2/12 - Machining of parts is underway and John confirms the steel parts look good (http://www.aespeakers.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2808&start=210#p14601
8/15/12 - The first batch of woofers is built and ships out to customers (minus phase plugs). This first batch is 58 TD15M-8 and mention is made of some TD6M-8s shipping later in the week, but no hard numbers. (http://www.aespeakers.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2808&start=225#p14743
) So from parts arriving to the first batch of woofers going out the door is 56 days. 58+ woofers on the group buy are in this batch.
9/10/12 - the second batch of steel is supposed to be back from the plating facility later this week. (http://www.aespeakers.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2808&start=240#p14873
) John confirms ~250 woofers ordered on the group buy and that this next batch of woofers to be built would have 20-30 woofers for group buy customers on it. Figure parts arriving at the end of the week (9/14) as he suggests and then several days to build out woofers, box, and ship... so likely 9/16 - 9/20 before next round goes out the door.
So to recap, the first batch of 58+ woofers took 56 days. The second batch of woofers will be produced quicker, likely 30-35 days turnaround.... but it only has 20-30 woofers on it. I've been told I shouldn't speculate. So I won't speculate or assume why there are only 20-30 woofers on this next batch or assume why this may or may not represent true output of product from the business or speculate if all future batches of woofers will take about 30 days to turn and if those batches will have the same quantity of group buy woofers in them.
People can do their own math and draw their own conclusions. But the reality is this: In three months since the steel has arrived, ~90 group buy woofers will have gone out the door once this latest batch is completed next week.... There were close to 250 woofers on the group buy according to John's own post. That leaves at least something in the neighborhood of ~150+ left to be built. In the absence of firm assurances from AE that they are going to dramatically increase production volumes of group buy woofers on future batches, it certainly seems likely the rest of the group buy woofers won't be completed in the next batch after this based on the size of the batches so far...... or the one after that... and so on.... at least those are my own estimates based on the performance and timeliness of deliveries so far.
John is welcome to help fill in the details that are missing and answer when all the group buy woofers should be completed. He knows all the details. There are no delays related to waiting on parts. At this point, its just manufacturing woofers, i.e. his business. He's the manufacturer and should know his manufacturing capacity. He's the only employee so he should know his output capability. The question has been asked by myself and others and not answered to this point. That's what started the speculation in the first place.... trying to come up with our own estimates based on what has transpired so far.
Just an FYI for folks trying to plan for when they need to have their enclosures built to house the woofers when they arrive... or are waiting for the drivers to arrive to measure and try to determine boxes that will be built to house them... the current
It is important to note that this is my speculation based on what details have been provided. I don't know how many units John is actually turning out other than what he has posted in public domain. I don't know how many OEM orders he has in backlog. I don't know how many regular orders he has from customers that came in after the group buy closed that he hasn't yet filled with locally sourced steel. I'm just one guy trying to figure out when to expect woofers to arrive and thought others might appreciate my own thought process for how I'm estimating when to expect them. I can't turn off the project manager in my head, especially these days. With a 4 month old, I find that I actually have to plan my life like a project even more than I ever did before. While we listen to music nearly 16 hours a day in my house, it's mostly background now and dedicated listening time and time to work on DIY audio projects is extremely limited. I have to plan it down to the minute practically to not get the stink eye from the better half and to work around family time with a little boy that is awake 18+ hours a day. I'm chomping at the bit to put together a couple of the speaker designs that will use these AE woofers to see if I like them or not, and so I'm especially keen to figure out when the woofers will ship to me. I'm not trying to cause any undue hardship on John. I'm trying to be realistic in my estimates based on the information that has been provided and figure out for myself when to expect things since John hasn't explicitly stated these details. I'm posting it in the public domain since I thought others either are already doing their own calculations or would appreciate the attempt to put the details that are published into some kind of sense of what to expect going forward.Edited by hometheaterdoc - 9/11/12 at 7:29pm