Originally Posted by Lee Stewart
That is nothing more then sheer speculation. Why are consumers who don't have a 3DTV going to spend more money to buy a 3D BD?
But your market is tiny. It would be a different story if 3DTV adoption rate was considerably higher then it is today . . . but it isn't.
They are already limiting 3D BD by not having them readily available to rent from rentailers like Redbox, Netflix and Blockbuster
Once they assemble the film to be released to theaters, they can begin the production of the optical discs for the home video market. It doesn't take much more time to produce a 3D BD then it does for a regular BD.
I think a big issue with the launch of 3D TV for the home is that timing - they launched it right in the worst recession since the 30s so I think you are certainly right there, that there is a lot of price resistance right now and for the last 2 years.
That said, having the 3D disk drop a couple weeks before the official street date of the movie would not only ensure the maximum sales for the format, but would also produce sales from folks who have not yet bought a 3D TV, as they look ahead and consider the format. It's an opportunity to future-proof themselves; more than an opportunity, actually, an additional powerful reason to pick up the 3D version.
This would encourage adoption. Consider this scenario: customers See that 3D versions are being treated to a "sneak preview" early release before official street date. Some immediately buy a 3D BD player to take advantage of this and start buying 3D players to use with their 2D TV, conceding to the fact they will buy a 3DTV later. Other buyers hear that, even tho the discs are supposed to be for 3D bluray players, that regular BD players often play these discs in 2D just fine, so start to buy the 3D versions in their Earl y release also. Some times there are issues, so they figure "what the heck, I'll just get a 3D Bluray player. Bingo, now they are half pregnant too - and it's only going to be a short while before they pick up the 3DTV also. In fact, both these groups may end up buying the 3DTV as a bundle when they go in to get the player.
In other words, it's an INCENTIVE - not a NEGATIVE.
Contrast that with the opposite. When Michael Bay holds back the 3D version of Transformers an extra few months, he is actually GUARANTEEING that the sales of the BD 3D release will be lower than it would have been otherwise. Some of the already small number of BD 3D owners will end up buying the 2D version, with only some diehard 3D fans buying the 3D version as well.
It's arrogant in the extreme to think that only the 3D "ultra" fans are going to take the format mainstream. The rest will be disaffected and annoyed by the strategy, and will spit on the $10 coupon that has been so heavily promoted in this thread.
For some marketing type to think that they can start making extra dollars off the BD 3D format in this fashion, when it is already the more expensive "premium" BD f format, is akin to some of the blunders that Netflix has been making and WILL negatively impact the format - not to mention even MY support of it.
I AGREE with the strategy of not having the BD 3D discs available in the rental channels, as it's good to try to guarantee sales at this stage (although I'm wondering how they are allowing 3Dblurayrentals to bypass that) but this nonsense about trying the cream the BD 3D owners into a double purchase stinks like dog doo.