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post #181 of 1992
1/24/12 at 2:07pm
Watching the devs is a great way to try and find a timeline on new hardware. Not necessarily new hiring, since these companies have large teams of people that could be tackling other aspects of a game well before needing a hand with something specific. With ND in particular they have admitted to forming a second team, the newest one making The Last Of Us in secret. The other half of their company can't be sitting idle, so it's easy to speculate on next gen work.

The big reason I think new hardware is coming sooner rather than later? This:

Quote:


Game Industry Sales Plummet in December, Finish Down 8% in 2011

NPD Group released its numbers today for December and all of 2011, and well, it capped off what was largely an ugly year in the physical software business. In December, total industry sales dropped by 21% to $3.99 billion compared to last December's $5.07 billion. Hardware was down 28% and software dipped by 14%. This certainly didn't help the year-end total for 2011, which came to $17.02 billion, down 8% from 2010's $18.59 billion. For the full year, hardware and accessories were each down 11% and software declined six percent.

The total picture, as we all know, is not fully reflected by looking at physical only. From a total spend perspective on game content, NPD's latest Total Consumer Spend report (not including hardware) shows sales around $16.3 to $16.6 billion for 2011, which is down two percent from 2010. The NPD Group does note that this is still a preliminary estimate, and a final estimate of the total consumer spend on the games industry will be released in March.

This is retail, and NPD isn't going to release a 'total' report until March, but it's a bad trend. The more the numbers decline the more pressure it puts on the console makers to get the cool new thing out the door. I guess the trick is if Sony and MS are selling enough to make money and hold off on a launch, even as sales of hardware and software decline.

I still believe we will see a new console from Sony or MS (or both) available somewhere in the world, before the end of calendar year 2013. I'll be surprised if it's any later than that, and that Nintendo would have more than a year alone as the cool new thing, if it turns out to be anyway.
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post #182 of 1992
1/24/12 at 2:57pm
^^^ That data is highly misleading. If you look at the full report, you'll see that both PS3 and 360 sales are actually up from last year by 9%. The reason for the overall drop is that Wii has fallen off the face of the planet. And since Wii sales had been such a large percentage of the market, those falling sales had a dramatic effect on the total spend percentage.

So, no, the HD console manufacturers are in no hurry to usher in their next consoles.
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post #183 of 1992
1/24/12 at 3:08pm
Eh. I don't think these systems will be growth drivers anymore. These companies need to show growth. New hardware will be out soon enough. Next 18-21 months.
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post #184 of 1992
1/24/12 at 3:16pm
MS just had its biggest year worldwide in 2011 without a price drop. Like it was stated the decline has more to do with the Wii than the other systems. MS actually made up more than half of the holiday sales from console, games and accessories.
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post #185 of 1992
1/24/12 at 3:26pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

^^^ That data is highly misleading. If you look at the full report, you'll see that both PS3 and 360 sales are actually up from last year by 9%. The reason for the overall drop is that Wii has fallen off the face of the planet. And since Wii sales had been such a large percentage of the market, those falling sales had a dramatic effect on the total spend percentage.

So, no, the HD console manufacturers are in no hurry to usher in their next consoles.

Hardware is small money, while software is big money. Software is in decline, and the Wii was never the biggest software mover anyway. If the software keeps slipping then someone will be forced to jump with the new hardware.

Quote:
Originally Posted by number1laing View Post

Eh. I don't think these systems will be growth drivers anymore. These companies need to show growth. New hardware will be out soon enough. Next 18-21 months.

Doing fine and making money mean nothing if the business isn't growing. These giant companies think low/no growth is as bad as losing money, and so do the investors. I'm with you on that window.
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post #186 of 1992
1/24/12 at 3:44pm
Quote:


Hardware is small money, while software is big money. Software is in decline, and the Wii was never the biggest software mover anyway. If the software keeps slipping then someone will be forced to jump with the new hardware.

The Wii U is coming out so there goes your jump with the new hardware. Nintendo and Sony are both in the red. Microsoft is back in the black. I expect the new 360 to come in 2014 based on the fact that the 360 has not had a price drop in two years. Last year everyone was saying this was the last great year for the system 6 years later it is still growing along with a 9 attach rate with software. The decline has more to do with Nintendo than it does with Microsoft and Sony.

Quote:


With a strong holiday sales period finishing a banner year, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 ended 2011 as the best-selling current-generation console in the U.S., outselling the second place console by more than 2.7 million units. The strong December capped an impressive year during which Xbox 360 was the fastest-growing console. It also captured 49 percent of consumer retail spending, with an industry-leading $6.7 billion in sales in the U.S. for the calendar year—more than $2.1 billion on consoles and $4.6 billion on games and accessories (Source: NPD Group, December 2011).

Xbox 360 was the must-have gift this holiday season with about half of December’s retail spend on games, consoles and accessories going toward Xbox 360 products, totaling more than $1.5 billion (Source: NPD Group, December 2011). Microsoft has now sold more than 66 million Xbox 360* consoles and more than 18 million Kinect* sensors worldwide, and now has nearly 40 million Xbox LIVE members.*

December 2011 NPD highlights:
· Holding a 46 percent share of the overall current-generation console market, Xbox 360 sold more than 1.7 million units in December, solidifying the number-one console spot in the U.S. for 2011. This marks the tenth consecutive month Xbox 360 has held more than 40 percent of the current-generation console market share, and twelfth straight month Xbox 360 was the top-selling console in the U.S. (Source: NPD Group, December 2011.

· Total retail spend on the Xbox 360 platform in December (hardware, software and accessories) reached $1.5 billion, the most for any console in the U.S. (Source: NPD Group, December 2011).

· During the month of December, Xbox 360 had seven of the top 10 console game titles including: “Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3,” Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim,” “Battlefield 3,” “Assassin’s Creed: Revelations,” “Just Dance 3,” “Kinect Sports Season Two” and “Dance Central 2,” (Source: NPD Group, December 2011).

For 2011, Xbox 360 had six of the top 10 console game titles including “Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3,” “Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim,” “Gears of War 3,” “Battlefield 3,” “Madden NFL 12,” and “Call of Duty: Black Ops,” (Source: NPD Group, December 2011).


This week at CES Microsoft showed many of the ways Xbox 360 and Kinect will continue with strong momentum in 2012, including new Xbox LIVE content partners such as News Corp. Xbox 360 owners are excited about this new, fun, and interactive way to enjoy their favorite content:
· The hours of video consumed globally on Xbox LIVE increased 140 percent from 2010 to 2011.*

· In December more than 60 percent of U.S. Xbox LIVE Gold members used entertainment apps on Xbox LIVE – for an average of an hour a day each.*

· The number of people using entertainment apps on Xbox LIVE increased by nearly 50 percent globally from November to December.*


Beyond gaming, Microsoft will soon sell a Kinect for Windows sensor designed for commercial applications, bringing the magic of Kinect to whole new audiences including education, manufacturing and healthcare. Looking forward to an exciting 2012, we expect new audiences for Kinect, new experience for Xbox LIVE and a new installment in the world-class Halo and Fable franchises to help Xbox 360 have yet another stellar year.
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post #187 of 1992
1/24/12 at 4:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mboojigga View Post

The Wii U is coming out so there goes your jump with the new hardware. Nintendo and Sony are both in the red. Microsoft is back in the black. I expect the new 360 to come in 2014 based on the fact that the 360 has not had a price drop in two years. Last year everyone was saying this was the last great year for the system 6 years later it is still growing along with a 9 attach rate with software. The decline has more to do with Nintendo than it does with Microsoft and Sony.

I'm trying to make sense of your logic.

The next Xbox is going to be in 2014 because the 360 is making money and has room for a price drop. How does that follow? The two generation will overlap, why not use the 360 as the budget system like the PS2 is now, it still sells at $99 to this day.

As to the profitbility of the game systems, one does not know the specifics, they are not public. So claiming Sony is in the red and MS the black is conjecture. Both systems are profitable now, but that is ignoring historical losses and investment.
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post #188 of 1992
1/24/12 at 4:51pm
Quote:


The next Xbox is going to be in 2014 because the 360 is making money and has room for a price drop. How does that follow?

You do realize the 360 has not had a price drop in two years right? MS just had its biggest year in its 6 years on the market. Why wouldn't they want to continue with the 360 and make money if this year continues the trend since 2010 with the launch of the Slim came out.


Quote:


As to the profitbility of the game systems, one does not know the specifics, they are not public.

You mean this information that is coming out of the Entertainment & Devices Devision just a week ago?

Quote:


The Entertainment & Devices Division posted revenue of $4.24 billion, an increase of 15% from the prior period. The Xbox 360 installed base now totals approximately 66 million consoles and 18 million Kinect sensors. Xbox LIVE now has 40 million members worldwide, an increase of 33% from the prior year period.

“In addition to the continued strength of our commercial business, this holiday season was the strongest in Microsoft history, thanks to good sales execution and compelling products like Xbox 360 and Kinect,” said Kevin Turner, chief operating officer at Microsoft. “We are seeing a lot of excitement for new devices, from Windows 7 Ultrabooks to new Windows Phones, as well as growing anticipation for Windows 8.”
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post #189 of 1992
1/24/12 at 6:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crash44 View Post

Hardware is small money, while software is big money. Software is in decline, and the Wii was never the biggest software mover anyway. If the software keeps slipping then someone will be forced to jump with the new hardware.

That makes no sense. Console manufacturers are making more money than ever. Why would slower than typical software sales motivate them to ditch healthy console sales? As the Wii's and Kinect's successes showed, you don't need strong software sales to drive hardware. If anything, strong hardware sales and sluggish software sales would have the opposite effect and would convince console manufacturers to bide their time even longer.

Software sales are slowing (only at retail) for a lot of reasons. But none of them has anything to do with the longevity of this console generation. Digital sales are growing. DLC sales are growing. Again, jumping to the next gen would actually only worsen the problem. Development costs would go up yet again, which would mean that sales would have to be even higher to make a profit. Again, opposite of your analysis.

So, no. No one's in a rush at the moment (except Nintendo and Apple). Across the board, the majority of these "slowing" sales can be attributed to the sharp decline in Wii sales. Even if the console wasn't a big third-party software mover, Nintendo's own first party software had been dominating the charts for years. Now those are also suddenly dropping off, too.

There's no need to be alarmist about these figures, and they mean nothing in terms of ushering in the next gen.
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post #190 of 1992
1/25/12 at 6:31am
On the other hand, the common sense approach says:

Can any of you actually imagine another Uncharted game on PS3? I've been playing Arkham City, and similarly I can't imagine another Batman game on current consoles. Another God of War? Or another Gears of War, for that matter? Most of the big series have been mined.

There's still plenty left to be done, but unless it's an annual franchise (like CoD or Assassin's Creed), I just don't see most studios (or gamers) able to stomach another entry on current consoles. Bioshock Infinite and GTAV will probably be the big send-offs. Like with Naughty Dog, if studios start making the transition now, it'll probably take them 3 years or so to make the leap to next gen specs (rather than the more typical ~2 years for well funded, ongoing franchises).

Assuming many dev studios started next gen development back in 2011, that still puts us into 2013-2014. Some studios looking to get the jump on next gen might cut some corners in order to cut down on development time--which at earliest puts us at mid-to-late 2013. But that's assuming they started last year. If they're starting this year, add another six months to those estimates. And if they start in the second half of this year, well, figure a definite 2014-2015 window.
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post #191 of 1992
1/25/12 at 6:55am
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

Can any of you actually imagine another Uncharted game on PS3?

Perhaps not. But then, I'm starting to tire of Nathan as it is. I'd much rather see 1 or 2 Naughty Dog calibur games that... you know... are different, unique even, on the PS3 over the next year or so than I am waiting to get UC4 3 years later on a new console I have to buy.

I have no problem with that other one about the zombies coming out on PS3.

-Suntan
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post #192 of 1992
1/25/12 at 8:46am
Honestly I wish they'd push Last of Us back to next Gen. Thats exactly the type of game, going by the teaser, that would benefit from higher texture resolution and the ability to pump more polys in the characters and the world.

Lots of zombies and a very detailed post apocalyptic cityscape could use next gen power very well. Not to say ND can't with current tech. Just that type of game better lends itself to next gen. Ditto with GTA5, where GTA4 was heavily nerfed to even run on consoles.
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post #193 of 1992
1/27/12 at 5:58pm
Anyone else hoping that Sony releases a truly Slim PS3? The current PS3 design is very nice, but it just isn't slim. I want something similar to the PS2 slim in size. Maybe a price drop to accompany the new hardware, which should give the PS3 some added life and a decent bump in sales.
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post #194 of 1992
1/27/12 at 7:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by PENDRAG0ON View Post

Anyone else hoping that Sony releases a truly Slim PS3? The current PS3 design is very nice, but it just isn't slim. I want something similar to the PS2 slim in size. Maybe a price drop to accompany the new hardware, which should give the PS3 some added life and a decent bump in sales.

Neither of the HD consoles has yet gone to that golden mass-market price yet. Maybe once you can get a PS3 for $150, we'll see a slim version. But I wouldn't expect that until after we get a firm sense for when the next console will be released.
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post #195 of 1992
1/30/12 at 9:09am
Thread Starter 
Sony's France COO confirms that their next-gen console will be the last in the industtry to be announced (as expected):

Quote:


"We were the last to release the PS3, we will probably be the last to announce something."
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post #196 of 1992
1/30/12 at 9:47am
I would rather the ps3 be around another few/2 maybe 3 more years. I'm more then good/happy with the quality of games right now.

All though it would be interesting to see a game like MAG on a ps4/xbox720. As I tried the demo and full game. Just didn't feel the rush of hundred+ players
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post #197 of 1992
1/30/12 at 12:58pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...?newsfeed=true

In this interview, Shuhei Yoshida basically says that Sony did the PSP a disservice by releasing the PS3 only one year after it. So, I wouldn't expect PS4 for at least 2 years. But I do think Sony's plans could be accelerated, depending on what MS does.
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post #198 of 1992
1/30/12 at 1:37pm
PSP a disservice? They're geared to different markets, with a little overlap.

Honestly I'd be more interesting in asking if the handheld market is still a product line that is viable. Sony seems stubborn to battle Nintendo there, while apple and android are cleaning up with their marketplaces and multifunctional phones and handheld devices.

The dedicated, priority handheld market seems like a dead end to me. which is why i'm amazed there's not more of a push for PS3/PS4 synergy in the Vita.
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post #199 of 1992
1/30/12 at 2:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

PSP a disservice? They're geared to different markets, with a little overlap.

Read the article... it's more about diverting resources and focus, than cannibalizing sales.
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post #200 of 1992
1/30/12 at 2:23pm
RGR, should have RTFA.

Sony isn't as big as they once were. The current currency valuations also aren't in their favor in a global marketplace. I can definitely see that!
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post #201 of 1992
1/30/12 at 2:23pm
RGR, should have RTFA.

Sony isn't as big as they once were. The current currency valuations also aren't in their favor in a global marketplace. I can definitely see that!
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post #202 of 1992
1/30/12 at 2:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikazaru View Post

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...?newsfeed=true

In this interview, Shuhei Yoshida basically says that Sony did the PSP a disservice by releasing the PS3 only one year after it. So, I wouldn't expect PS4 for at least 2 years. But I do think Sony's plans could be accelerated, depending on what MS does.

Well, holiday season of 2013 would be almost two years from Vita. Holiday season of 2013 will be seven years from the PS3's launch. I'll be ready for it to come out by then.

My prediction for the defining feature of the next gen: Ubiquitous 3D in game titles that actually looks good and doesn't detract from gameplay. I think there will be enough 3DTV market penetration by then for it to matter to the early adopters buying consoles at launch. It will probably also have 4K support, though there will be hardly any hardware available to make use of it, and almost zero content. BTW, my pick for the defining feature of the current gen that separated it from last gen (xbox & ps2) is the ubiquitous online aspect.

There is the consideration though that Sony has always taken the opportunity to introduce a new technology to the masses with each of the past two iterations of the PlayStation. Technology that was previously primarily only in the hands of early adopters, that being DVD for PS2 and Blu-Ray for PS3. This has seemed like an important part of their strategy as it benefits multiple components of their business rather than just being a product for the gaming division. I don't expect Sony to start making business decisions that don't consider the whole company, so I wonder what will be the defining crossover feature for the PS4? The thing that makes it also appeal to non-gamers. Let's face it, when the PS3 came out, it was the best blu-ray player on the market, and was priced about the same as new blu-ray players. If you were in the market for a blu-ray player, it was like you were getting the game-playing functionality thrown in for free. So what will be the multi-market aspect for the PS4?
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post #203 of 1992
1/30/12 at 2:59pm
Possibly a 4K hardware scaler, but we won't be native 4K next gen.

1080P locked 60/120 would be what I'd want, and what i expect them to gear towards. I'd much rather a "good enough" resolution be locked in, allowing dev's to focus more on content then on some resolution battle.
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post #204 of 1992
1/30/12 at 6:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mounta1n View Post

So what will be the multi-market aspect for the PS4?

There's just too much uncertainty right now across a lot of the consumer tech industry. Do you go the convenience route (existing tech gets integrated and connected), or do you go the faster, better route (new tech)? Signs point to the first option. And if that's the case, there's still no reason to move to a new console because you can do all of that with the existing hardware.

If I had to guess on what the next big thing will be, it'll be even more integration across and within technologies. I've said it before, but I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing "consoles" begin to turn into integrated platforms. PSN and XBL would remain networks that could be integrated into displays and dedicated boxes/consoles. It's already technically feasible. It's possible that we see those services branch out before we see an actual new console. You could get a "lite" version of a PS3 by just having PSN access in a display. No access to the higher end disc games, but all the downloadable games you want. It'd be a way to get a leg up on Apple, while still maintaining the "premium games" moniker.

But as for an actual new console, it'll be a while. Maybe not even until there's the possibility of some new tech upgrade that's only just becoming visible (better 3D tech? better OLED visor tech?). I just can't imagine anything that'd really blow anyone away.
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post #205 of 1992
2/1/12 at 10:06am
http://www.metro.co.uk/tech/games/88...-sony-big-boss

It will be interesting to see how having a "playstation guy" running the whole show affects SCE.
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post #206 of 1992
2/1/12 at 4:58pm
Congrats Kaz. He's got his work cut out for him that's for sure, but he's had some success turning around a division in trouble. It will be interesting to watch is right.
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post #207 of 1992
2/7/12 at 9:48pm
If they came out with the equivalent of a PS3 slim I'd buy my 2nd PS3 in a heartbeat. The only thing keeping me from getting a 2nd one is the design.

As far as a PS4 IMO its still way too soon. Best indicator for me ? If folks in this thread are struggling to come up with things they'd like to see or things they think would sell, its too early. If early adopters and enthusiasts aren't sure whats hot, we're not there yet.

I like the direction Mouta1n is going. The next console has to have a physical technology advantage similar to DVD/Blu-ray. Considering the game changer of being able to deliver content over the network, it may be awhile.

I applaud Sonys patience and hope that whatever they release for the next go round is a polished product that doesn't give me just software updates. For all of my gripes about the PS3, the one I bought on release day is still chugging away after years of abuse.

If they keep focusing on the software (connected services) and give me a more appealing form factor I'll have a PS3 connected to every television in my house. I've still got more money to give to the PS3, they don't need a PS4 to get more money out of my pocket.
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post #208 of 1992
2/7/12 at 10:10pm
As far as my next big thing prediction I'm going to say the focus will be on how we interact with the console.

Integration of the kinect/move functionality. Re-design of the controllers to include touch.

I do think 3d will be a big part of the experience and do think that part of that puzzle will necessitate a hardware change in the consoles.

So....3d+kinect/move = life like immersion....and yes it will have to be "online". Home in 3rd with move. That sorta business.

In terms of when, I'll say 5 years.
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post #209 of 1992
2/7/12 at 10:57pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by whyidie View Post

If they came out with the equivalent of a PS3 slim I'd buy my 2nd PS3 in a heartbeat. The only thing keeping me from getting a 2nd one is the design.

As far as a PS4 IMO its still way too soon. Best indicator for me ? If folks in this thread are struggling to come up with things they'd like to see or things they think would sell, its too early. If early adopters and enthusiasts aren't sure whats hot, we're not there yet.

I like the direction Mouta1n is going. The next console has to have a physical technology advantage similar to DVD/Blu-ray. Considering the game changer of being able to deliver content over the network, it may be awhile.

I applaud Sonys patience and hope that whatever they release for the next go round is a polished product that doesn't give me just software updates. For all of my gripes about the PS3, the one I bought on release day is still chugging away after years of abuse.

If they keep focusing on the software (connected services) and give me a more appealing form factor I'll have a PS3 connected to every television in my house. I've still got more money to give to the PS3, they don't need a PS4 to get more money out of my pocket.

You don't have to worry about the PS4 coming too soon. It won't be out in 2012 and is doubtful for 2013 unless it comes at the end. Either way, that's about 2+ years from now, give or take a few months, at the earliest.
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post #210 of 1992
2/9/12 at 10:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

...........MS's gaming division is still really, really far in the red, so they'd be my first guess (if only because they did the right thing and covered their hardware frak ups).................

Not exactly, might try listening to the conference call @ the next quarterly report.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mboojigga View Post

............Microsoft is back in the black. I expect the new 360 to come in 2014 based on the fact that the 360 has not had a price drop in two years......

Exactly, MS is sitting on 50 billion in cash - not Apple levels but still a nice chunk of change. They're doing just fine..................Sony? Not so much, downgraded by S&P for years of losses AND recently tipped their hand that losses could be 2.9 billion for this year.

MS is in a far better position to release/spend on a new console - Sony will if they feel forced by being "behind" but it's not in their best interest.
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