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PlayStation Meeting 2013 (PS4 unveiling - conference replay in first post) - Page 15

post #421 of 1994
The companies want used games to go away. That's what digital downloads solves.

I'd guess the next system will be such a beast.

If you live somewhere without broadband, then you wont be getting a PS4.
post #422 of 1994
Nonsense

None of these companies are going to a all digital distribution model this upcoming generation.
post #423 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by defdog99 View Post

The companies want used games to go away. That's what digital downloads solves.

I actually think the whole anti-used games thing is just a clever ruse. Publishers don't really want used games to go away. They know that the entire used game economy is a major support to the new game market. Without the ability to sell or trade in used games, far fewer people would buy new games. They also know that the current value of retail games ($60) relies on consumers knowing that some of that investment can be recouped somewhere down the road when they sell it or trade it in. Without that perceived value, game prices would plummet. Publishers know this.

Instead, publishers just want to find a way to get more money out of legitimate consumers. The same thing applies to supposed anti-piracy measures. It's all a bunch of PR spin they toss at consumers in order to justify stealth price increases (DLC, subscriptions, preorders, etc). But they don't really want used games (or *gasp* piracy) to go away.

And like Leo_Ames says, we're still far away from being able to support a completely digital download console (at least, one that isn't made by Apple).
post #424 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

...
Instead, publishers just want to find a way to get more money out of legitimate consumers. The same thing applies to supposed anti-piracy measures. It's all a bunch of PR spin they toss at consumers in order to justify stealth price increases (DLC, subscriptions, preorders, etc). But they don't really want used games (or *gasp* piracy) to go away.
...

I can definitely agree with this. The bullsh*t Saints Row 3 expansion pack coming up proves this. They suckered people into buying the Season Pass thing for SR and then the first major expansion they anounce (not to be confused with the crap costumes, guns, and vehicles DLC they've released so far) will be a standalone product and all the suckers that bought into the Season Pass hoping to get it will have to pony up at full rate just like all us other slobs out there. I couldn't believe it when I read that.
post #425 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

we're still far away from being able to support a completely digital download console (at least, one that isn't made by Apple).


Two things pop in my head when I think about this:

1. Somebody is eventually going to do it.

Yeah, everybody says that it's too risky right now to try to go to digital download only, that it would be too much of a shock to the overall industry at large, but eventually somebody is going to do it. Plus, the console generations are lasting so long now, that you can't just think about the first 3 years of the consoles life. You have to think about 7 or 8 years of the consoles life..


2. All 3 companies would have to secretly agree to start it:


It's not happening this time, because all 3 companies would have to be in on it. Nintendo isn't ready for it yet, so it's not going to happen. The three companies that control the home console business would basically have to have an unwritten agreement to all go digital only. Nobody wants to get caught with their pants down. I'm sure they will all agree that next time (after this upcoming launch wave), they will go digital only, but it's going to be 1 more generation before that happens.
post #426 of 1994
My thought as to how the download only age will start is with a variation of next generation of console. Just like how there have been many variations of 360's and PS3's this gen I would not be surprised to see a variation that had no disc drive and came with an additional Hard drive slot instead. Right now PSN has maybe 5% of the total disc based games available for download maybe 1% have been available day one. To me that doesn't sound like they are in any hurry supplant the disc. I think sometime during the PS4 generation they will get to the point where all AAA games will have a simultaneous Disc and DL release. Eventually DL releases will come earlier than the disc version. The market will determine how quickly we move to DL only machines. Right now there are very few incentives to going the DL route as the console companies push DL only games they will create "false" incentives (exclusive content, early access, etc.) once disc based is off the market those incentives will disapear.
post #427 of 1994
And then eventually download content will be replaced with cloud content. Our grandchildren will not understand the concept of "owning" games and movies (unless you grandchildren are already born...the next unborn generation). They won't know the concept of driving a car or even getting a drivers license also but that's another topic. But they will be able to play on the ps7 while the car drives itself!
post #428 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by brakel View Post

And then eventually download content will be replaced with cloud content. Our grandchildren will not understand the concept of "owning" games and movies (unless you grandchildren are already born...the next unborn generation). They won't know the concept of driving a car or even getting a drivers license also but that's another topic. But they will be able to play on the ps7 while the car drives itself!

Horses are still around. Pirates moved from ships to their mothers basement.



While things change, there will always be niche markets for the old things unless they become totally useless. You might not be able to drive your car yourself on a highway, but it's a trade that make sense when you realize 98% of the open road is unused space and that you could cut down commute times by 60% through automation. It ain't going to make old car enthusiasts and race tracks go away. It probably only make them more popular as a past time.

As for the download age, it's already here. But it's likely to come in as a whimper, not a bang like most people think. Once someone can answer why an ISP will let you download a terabyte worth of video and game data a month for $45, we will have it. But ISPs have been using their oligarchy status to push back on the idea of them as open service providers. They want to be content providers and they want to have a say in how and what you get from them, and they really, really want to move towards charging you for what you want, not for unabridged access to the pipe. Data transfer is only getting cheaper, but they no longer want to pass that on to their customers, they want to fill the gap as pure revenue toward their shareholders.

Honestly, a more European system would make more sense, even here. ISP are utilities and they don't want to upgrade the infrastructure. Communication infrastructure should be a public good maintained by the government, and leased to a provider that thinks they can innovate their service enough to make a profit. It allows much more competition and progress because of the huge capital costs of maintaining something like a national communications network, power grid, road system, ect. Otherwise you get what we have now, a few conglomerates in control of all access and reluctant to make the capital imporvments needed to drive innovation and economic prosperity.
post #429 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by todrigo View Post

My thought as to how the download only age will start is with a variation of next generation of console. ... I would not be surprised to see a variation that had no disc drive ... Right now PSN has maybe 5% of the total disc based games available for download maybe 1% have been available day one.

Its called the Vita.
wi-fi and 3G to always be connected to the cloud.
a full featured store, where 100% of games are available.

The Vita is the test bed for the PS4 distribution system.
post #430 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by todrigo View Post

My thought as to how the download only age will start is with a variation of next generation of console.

You'd be wrong. It's already started...

https://play.google.com/store/apps

http://www.apple.com/itunes/

Denegrate them if you want, but the reality is that the console makers are madly trying to figure out how they are going to catch up without losing complete control of their current business model.

-Suntan
post #431 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suntan View Post

You'd be wrong. It's already started...

https://play.google.com/store/apps

http://www.apple.com/itunes/

-Suntan

Since those sites are not directed at CONSOLES I'm going to say that you are wrong. If we want to go down that path then it started with the first handheld PDA that allowed you to transfer Solitaire to its 32Mb memory bank. But we aren't talking about whether the next zune will have a disc drive are we.

My point is that there is still not a major home console that is DL only... They all accept some form of physical media. When PSN, XBL, & Nintendo online have 100% day and date digital release then we will know that DL only consoles are close behind.

My prediction is a disc driveless variation of a console will be released after the initial launch window in the next generation. And that the PS5 generation (should sony survive that long) will launch with both a physical media option and a DL only option.
post #432 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by todrigo View Post

Since those sites are not directed at CONSOLES I'm going to say that you are wrong. If we want to go down that path then it started with the first handheld PDA that allowed you to transfer Solitaire to its 32Mb memory bank. But we aren't talking about whether the next zune will have a disc drive are we.

My point is that there is still not a major home console that is DL only... They all accept some form of physical media. When PSN, XBL, & Nintendo online have 100% day and date digital release then we will know that DL only consoles are close behind.

My prediction is a disc driveless variation of a console will be released after the initial launch window in the next generation. And that the PS5 generation (should sony survive that long) will launch with both a physical media option and a DL only option.

Like I said, denegrate it all you want. But you bet the console makers feel like they are behind the 8 ball and are looking at it closely.

-Suntan
post #433 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suntan View Post

Like I said, denegrate it all you want. But you bet the console makers feel like they are behind the 8 ball and are looking at it closely.

-Suntan

no denigration necessary. 8MB and 80MB is much different than 8GB and 80GB.

The majority of both PS3's and XB360's have never been hooked up online. Console manufactures know that too.
post #434 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suntan View Post

Like I said, denegrate it all you want. But you bet the console makers feel like they are behind the 8 ball and are looking at it closely.

-Suntan

LoL do you mean denigrate? to speak damagingly of; criticize in a derogatory manner; sully; defame: to denigrate someone's character.

So which of my comments is derogatory? I'm stating that in my opinion consoles won't make an overnight change to DL only, is that damaging in any way?
post #435 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

no denigration necessary. 8MB and 80MB is much different than 8GB and 80GB.

The majority of both PS3's and XB360's have never been hooked up online. Console manufactures know that too.

78 percent of ps3 and 73 percent of xbox have been hooked up online.

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/13/st...ystems-in-u-s/
post #436 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by brakel View Post

78 percent of ps3 and 73 percent of xbox have been hooked up online.

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/13/st...ystems-in-u-s/

Booooorn in the USA. Booooorn in the USA!



Broadband is a lot more spotty outside of the US, and people are less worried about MP console gaming in Europe and other areas. US is pretty wired, even if our wiring is crap.
post #437 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1 View Post


2. All 3 companies would have to secretly agree to start it:

Why?
post #438 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

no denigration necessary. 8MB and 80MB is much different than 8GB and 80GB.

From publishers' and manufacturers' perspective, size doesn't matter. Profits do. They'll follow the money, not the hard drives. And in fact, large games are proving less and less profitable (even if revenue in the console market is still much larger than in the mobile market). Consoles, PCs, and mobile devices are going to look less and less different in the near future. Tablets are already successfully breaking down that boundary.

Even if we think that mobile games aren't cutting into the console market, the fact remains that the console market has slowed growth dramatically. Industries only survive where there's growth. It's inevitable that the industry has to follow the growing market, especially if they're unsuccessful at squeezing additional revenue out of the overgrown console market (with DLC, etc). Publishers don't care about the fact that "console gamers" aren't the same as "casual/mobile gamers." They only care about who's spending more money, and where they can tap into new consumers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brakel View Post

78 percent of ps3 and 73 percent of xbox have been hooked up online.

I also wonder how much that percentage has been skewed by replacement systems. People who go online with their consoles are the same people that would be most likely to purchase replacement consoles for busted units. Considering the high failure rates of current gen HD systems (especially now that we're past the five-year mark), it's probably not an inconsiderable number that is skewing the online connection rates.
post #439 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

... Considering the high failure rates of current gen HD systems...

And that's why I won't buy a next gen system until they release a PS4 "Slim".

But if the rumored "Steam Box" is a real thing... I won't be getting a PS4 anyway.

(Yes, I know Valve denied it, but days later they posted a job listing for "hardware guy").
post #440 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo_Ames View Post

Nonsense

None of these companies are going to a all digital distribution model this upcoming generation.

it needs to happen this next gen. i just read that sleeping dogs will offer different missions as exclusive preorder content to different retailers. so no matter where you get the game, you will get screwed out of a mission or two. this is exactly why they must go digital right now.
post #441 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by blklightning View Post


it needs to happen this next gen. i just read that sleeping dogs will offer different missions as exclusive preorder content to different retailers. so no matter where you get the game, you will get screwed out of a mission or two. this is exactly why they must go digital right now.

That will happen even with all digital. (preorder here and get a code for an extra mission) they just give you a code to download the game at release. Nothing changes.

And the next consoles will be all digital, every release will also come to the network as a DD in addition to the normal retail package.
post #442 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by blklightning View Post

it needs to happen this next gen. i just read that sleeping dogs will offer different missions as exclusive preorder content to different retailers. so no matter where you get the game, you will get screwed out of a mission or two. this is exactly why they must go digital right now.

You're adding 2 and 2 and getting something else besides 4. Why is this a reason they must go to digital now? And it's something most people could care less about. Retailer specific preorder exclusives are almost as a rule just pointless fluff. I think people can do without things like getting an exclusive outfit by preordering Street Fighter V at retailer A instead of retailer B. That's exactly what most people are doing right now.

The world's broadband infrastructure is no where close to being able to support everyone suddenly downloading all their software. Not to mention many of their customers don't even have broadband options right now.

And the mindset of the consumer is also far from ready. And their retail partners also are a consideration and not a group they want to anger by suddenly going from retail being your dominant form of distribution one generation to nonexistent the next. All adds up to games still shipping out on optical disc that you purchase at retail.

They're weening us off physical media. That seems clear as does their eventual goal a few generations down the line. But it's going to be a slow and gradual process. They're not going to suddenly turn a switch and say no more physical releases when their previous console's distribution format was primarily physical.

Expect digital distribution to be on a more even footing with physical with the Xbox 720 and Playstation 4 (And maybe the following generation, physical and digital will flip the positions they currently hold in importance this current generation). Expect more competitive pricing (An area that things like MS's Games on Demand service is severely lacking in), same day releases of all content, further pushing of digital, an increase of digital exclusives, etc. That's the logical next step and basically their only option. Contrary to what has been said, the United States is pretty far down the list where broadband integration and speeds are concerned making it not even a option in the United States for mainstream game consoles.

Networks would slow to a crawl when things like the latest Call of Duty are released even here I suspect. Many people's ISP's wouldn't even stand for it with restrictive caps that someone can approach just by being a heavy user of streaming video. Can't imagine what downloading several 1080p native next generation releases with lossless audio a month would do. Discounting every other factor, console makers are simply going to have to wait for the internet to offer the infrastructure necessary to support an all digital future.

To borrow an analogy with the traditional amphibious military landing, early steps into digital distribution were testing the waters with the original Xbox being the final and ultimate test prior to an all out assault (Which thankfully in their eyes showed positive results). With the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3, they launched full scale invasions and established their beachheads in the digital distribution conflict. With the Xbox 720 and Playstation 4, expect them to solidfy their positions and start to move inland for a long and slow war.

But don't expect them to win the war just yet or to skip it completely.
post #443 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo_Ames View Post

The world's broadband infrastructure is no where close to being able to support everyone suddenly downloading all their software. Not to mention many of their customers don't even have broadband options right now.

It already supports netflix -- streaming hours of movies to everyone.
post #444 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by defdog99 View Post


It already supports netflix -- streaming hours of movies to everyone.

Netflix scales to match your internet speeds. Gaming can't do that.

Even people with something like Hughsnet will work with netflix (until you hit the data cap) but you couldn't download anything more than mp3s reliably.
post #445 of 1994
I'd think the PS4 will have a 1TB local storage and still download and install like today.

Not cloud based gaming. Cloud based profiles.

I'd also expect it to use the Vita as a 2nd screen like a Wii U.
post #446 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo_Ames View Post

And the mindset of the consumer is also far from ready. And their retail partners also are a consideration and not a group they want to anger by suddenly going from retail being your dominant form of distribution one generation to nonexistent the next. All adds up to games still shipping out on optical disc that you purchase at retail.

On an encouraging note, it sounds like Nintendo is making the conversion intelligently by releasing "download coupons" for specific games to retailers. Since those are being sold at wholesale prices, it gives retailers the same pricing freedom that they already have with physical retail. There's an interesting series of articles on all of this stuff at Wired's Game|Life. Here's the latest:
http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/0...le/#more-45171

Anyhow, it shows that the digital conversion can be done in a way that doesn't piss off retailers. Surprised that neither Sony nor MS has tried this. Of course, we won't see all-digital consoles from Sony, MS, or Nintendo anytime soon, but the pendulum is swinging in that direction. Apple will likely be first (depending on whether or not you consider an improved and expanded Apple TV a "gaming console").
post #447 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post


I also wonder how much that percentage has been skewed by replacement systems. People who go online with their consoles are the same people that would be most likely to purchase replacement consoles for busted units. Considering the high failure rates of current gen HD systems (especially now that we're past the five-year mark), it's probably not an inconsiderable number that is skewing the online connection rates.

from reading the link, the way the story is presented it appears they did a survey of current owners not an all time count of ps3's purchased.
post #448 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

On an encouraging note, it sounds like Nintendo is making the conversion intelligently by releasing "download coupons" for specific games to retailers. Since those are being sold at wholesale prices, it gives retailers the same pricing freedom that they already have with physical retail. There's an interesting series of articles on all of this stuff at Wired's Game|Life. Here's the latest:
http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/0...le/#more-45171

Anyhow, it shows that the digital conversion can be done in a way that doesn't piss off retailers. Surprised that neither Sony nor MS has tried this. Of course, we won't see all-digital consoles from Sony, MS, or Nintendo anytime soon, but the pendulum is swinging in that direction. Apple will likely be first (depending on whether or not you consider an improved and expanded Apple TV a "gaming console").

Unless I can go through Amazon and other retail and buy a code and have it emailed to me directly, I don't see the point of this. Then you have to enter your code, and download the title from the store. Even then, people are going to balk that the only way to get a game is via an outside purchase code to use in a Nintendo DD system. Talk about a run around.

Seems like the only reason to do this is to not cut out the middle man, which is the whole point of DD in the first place. Cut him out, make purchases easier for consumers / gamers, and lower prices! The old retail model is dying, so we're going to prop it up with our new DD modeled on old retail models? Huh?

Sorry, but Nintendo is just trying to put the worms back in the can here.
post #449 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by TyrantII View Post

Seems like the only reason to do this is to not cut out the middle man, which is the whole point of DD in the first place. Cut him out, make purchases easier for consumers / gamers, and lower prices! The old retail model is dying, so we're going to prop it up with our new DD modeled on old retail models? Huh?

IMO cutting out the middle man will never happen. All that will change is who the middle man is. Whether it's Walmart or Apple, it's all the same. The problem is when the platform holder (Sony, MS, Nintendo) is also the middle man. That leads to monopolistic behaviors (price fixing, etc). Apple's the one exception since they give their developers free reign to set prices.

The one thing that's certain is that without a separate middle man of some kind, we run the risk of seeing higher prices across the board, not lower prices. Without retailers (whether physical or digital) there's also no incentive to cut prices. At least Nintendo's approach opens the possibility for retailer price incentives, sales, overstock, etc. Without it, we'll just see more of what we're currently seeing in XBLA and PSN: unchanging prices that are fixed by the platform holder (MS and Sony, respectively).

The important point that the Wired article makes is that Nintendo is purposely maintaining their own prices at the highest price possible in order to let retailers undercut them, even in the digital realm. From their perspective, everyone wins that way: retailers, consumers, and Nintendo.
post #450 of 1994
Quote:
Originally Posted by confidenceman View Post

IMO cutting out the middle man will never happen. All that will change is who the middle man is. Whether it's Walmart or Apple, it's all the same. The problem is when the platform holder (Sony, MS, Nintendo) is also the middle man. That leads to monopolistic behaviors (price fixing, etc). Apple's the one exception since they give their developers free reign to set prices.

The one thing that's certain is that without a separate middle man of some kind, we run the risk of seeing higher prices across the board, not lower prices. Without retailers (whether physical or digital) there's also no incentive to cut prices. At least Nintendo's approach opens the possibility for retailer price incentives, sales, overstock, etc. Without it, we'll just see more of what we're currently seeing in XBLA and PSN: unchanging prices that are fixed by the platform holder (MS and Sony, respectively).

The important point that the Wired article makes is that Nintendo is purposely maintaining their own prices at the highest price possible in order to let retailers undercut them, even in the digital realm. From their perspective, everyone wins that way: retailers, consumers, and Nintendo.

Meh, there's always an incentive: profits. Steam is a middleman, but they make their money on content delivery, not selling content, which is actually fundamentally different.

I just don't see how this works, or works well. And if you see the big 3 adopt something similar, I'll go ahead and forecast that DD sales will be dismal and the system scrapped eventually, while people continue to just buy hard media and or make the leap to PC where there's a path of least resistance.

Low sales and little fan fare will doom it, and then they're back to looking at true DD, with less artificial hassle to protect a retail interest.

I'll also make a prediction. If Gamestop wants to survive, they're going to have to radically change their business model and soon. They already did it once and now rely on used game fleecing. Next step is to scale back their retail operations and look more like Amazon, but with a smaller, more specialized retail experience.

Big box retail all over is dying, and GS is in the same boat.
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