Originally Posted by irfan
I'll believe Rogo over publicists. Id love a 55" affordable OLED to replace my 60" 9G Kuro (actually i'd love a 65-75), but im gonna go out on a thick limb and say it wont be cheap, soon or better overall. better blacks are a given, but off axis and natural color reproduction probably wont be 1st gen stuff. i really hope things speed up but im not betting on it.
Incidentally, we've been discussing this particular issue for more than a year. I've certainly had my thinking evolve both my movement in the marketplace as well as the excellent insights of some other AVSers (spec, irkuck, slacker, et al.)
What I won't tolerate is fictitious claims about what I have or have not said. There is a search engine that indexes everything posted on AVS. If you wish to "call me out" for a specific forecast or claim I made, just find it and call me out. There exist a number of possibilities, not limited to these
1) I still believe what I wrote.
The timeframe hasn't occurred yet or what I claimed has come to pass. If you want to know why I still believe it, ask.
2) My thinking has evolved
. If you quote something specific I predicted or claimed and you think the current evidence is to the contrary and you care what I'm thinking now, let me know. Bad forecasters are the ones that tell you it's going to rain in 5 days and the night before -- knowing it's going to be sunny -- stick with a 5-day-old forecast. Good ones look at the new models and explain their new thinking.
3) Whatever I wrote before was a mis-speak / wrong / foolish
. Most commonly, in writing these posts quickly without an editor, I'm prone to the occasional mis-statement, where something doesn't come out the way I intended. Sometimes, 6 months later, I can't even tell you what something might have been trying to say. Often, I can tell you, "Yeah, I shouldn't have said that." None of these errors are that common. That said, they all happen.
4) Look for the context
. Maybe I was playing devil's advocate in the post you read? Did you check the previous handfuls of posts? Not everything I write is explicitly a prediction about the future. Some of you read AVS 10x faster than I write for it; that's fine. But it means maybe your reading wasn't as critical as it needed to be. Again, feel free to ask for clarification. But don't assume you know something, especially if the context is murky.
It's very important to realize that there are macro trends that are happening around us that are often missed by the very people in the industry. Here, at AVS, when the prior wave of LCD overinvestment was occurring, a few of us saw the years of declining profits, minimal / non-existent profits, and inevitable consolidation in the industry. That wave is coming to a close right now.
What's beginning to occur is that somewhere deep out in the ocean, a small swell is forming called "OLED". It might well turn into a tsunami before it crests. When you see LG, Samsung, CMI, AUO, Panasonic and even, indirectly, Sharp, beginning to wax up their surfboards -- or build new ones -- it's hard not to notice. But it's also worth noting, that the distance from here to there is long. It's ultimate size is also very hard to determine.
There isn't a product yet in the market from anyone. It's unlikely in the U.S. we'll be getting our hands on any this year. And if we do, you are looking at high prices and very very small volumes. Extrapolating the future from that is a dangerous game. Samsung is riding high right now and has money to invest; LG does not. CMI and AUO are not well capitalized having come out of the LCD-glut era without things like the Galaxy phone to subsidize their businesses. Panasonic is retrenching and beginning to look into ramping OLED while it also ramps LCD and begins to slowly wind down the PDP era.
This isn't like the railroad revolution. Or, for that matter, the fiber-optic revolution, where everyone was stringing cable across the U.S. to satisfy new demand for data wires. This is a bunch of shaky companies trying to find their way back to profitability in an industry that they collectively ruined the profitability of over the last decade even as the industry enjoyed unprecedented growth
When you have a question for me or a comment about something I posted, please go ahead and ask. The above -- and other reasons -- might explain why something has changed since I posted something. When you've been thinking about this business -- and discussing it -- for half as long as I have, you should feel free to question my credentials or competence in doing the same. Until then, maybe the personal attacks should be sheathed and replaced by some legitimate discourse.