LG Official Announces 55" OLED for CES- - Page 13

When I look at these closely I think I see more detail in the LCD than in the OLED (in the grain for example). But I'm a OLED advocate so I hope that's just an anomaly of the photograph or something.

Dark times, dark times indeed.

That report doesn't indicate if they're just referring to LG or the entire market, though. Perhaps with other manufs getting involved, it'll get a slightly higher bump (nothing astronomical, though).

I would not read too much into the comparison shots. After all, many people were able to view all the LG displays at CES, and they still came away giving rave reviews to the OLED display. As for the market research projection; they did not post any research data, to document how they arrived at that number, and since most people still are not even aware of OLED TV panels, and their projected release later this year, I find it hard to believe that the market research firm were able to derive market sales projections numbers from among a wide variety of informed consumers.

Since they do not even know what the price will be on the product, how the hell can they project how many people will buy them this year?!

It's a forecast for the whole market, not just LG. It's also entirely consistent with what I've been saying here for quite some time. I would point out that if OLED doubled it's share every year after that for 5 years it would reach:

2016: 2%
2017: 4%
2018: 8%
2019: 16%
2020: 32%

There are a lot of reasons the growth could be somewhat slower, especially because doubling share from 16% to 32% in a single year would represent a shift of 40+ million displays from LCD to OLED, which seems unlikely. But I'm sure if OLED capture even 20% of the market by decade's end, the people behind it would be happy. And if they happen to exceed one third, they'd be very delighted.

Well, the super AMOLED screen on my Samsung Galaxy S II phone begs to differ. It is pretty freaking sweet. Get tons of compliments on it.

This is why I find it funny all the people saying OLED TVs won't have an impact or even a small part of the flat screen market even in 10 years.

Samsung has 24% market share in smartphones TODAY and is outselling the iPhone with the S II.

So Samsung went from zero percent of the smartphone biz with no OLED screened smartphone in mid 2009 to 24% of the smartphone biz with an OLED screened smartphones in just over 2 years.

Yeah, Samsung certainly has no idea how to make a successful product out of OLED do they?

I don't care if top quality product occupied 10% of whole world market or 1/10-th %. Thats those companies' CEO's / shareholders concern. I had Revel Performa's, have former Top Of the Line (at the moment) Samsung LN52A750, B&W headphones, Alpine CDA-117 & PDX-F6, notch beyond TOL - Yamaha RX-V3900 etc. Same approach,sure, goes for majority AVS members / visitors. ONLY i-Products sold by millions at insane (previously) prices. Charged "premium" -is fine, I just don't want high quality stuff cost as much as High End. This site and all "near TOL" products -not meant for J6p's and even more than 10% of A-V customers in the World. So what? I'm OK with peaceful coexistence of Fluorescent and Incandescent light bulbs for decades and their market share? -Who cares! ... Still think OLED gonna crash those too...

PS: Is it me or OLED TV on those great shots practically doesn't have any noticeable reflection, compare to LCD!?

Reality Check.

A few days ago I posted the following question:

Do any of you have other sources, that can confirm the LG WOLED screen sizes that this one site is reporting?

"Screen sizes: 32, 37, 40, 46, 55 inches"

http://www.digitalversus.com/duels-b...-tv-ap828.html


And no one came up with an informed answer. Since they can not answer such a basic question about what sizes will be shipped, and what their original MSRP will be set at, they are not in any position to tell us anything about how many units will be sold in 2012, never mind three or more years down the road.

I am going to wait and see what size units do get shipped, how much they will cost, and what, if any problems might crop up. That is the only way I will be able to determine if I can afford one, and if I want to purchase one.

2%? 2016 and you say 2%? I don't know where you are getting your numbers but they got to be wrong. 2016 is 4 years away. A TON of things will change by then. I think every number you've posted is just flat out wrong.

I don't know what's with people guessing. Tons of people guess OLED wouldn't even be out or the next 4 years. They were clearly wrong.

Tons of people state these OLED sets will be 15K. Again. Flat out wrong. Not even close in price.

As for these % 2016 2017 etc. There is no way these numbers are correct.

All these guesses are just that. Guesses. Why people are trying to past them on as factual is beyond me.

It Think LG and SS have much higher predictions than that for Oled TVs. I've seen estimates that put LG having 30% of all TVs(it makes) by 2016 being Oled and similar for others. 2% by 2016 seems awfully low.

Seriously. Stop. I took the 1% in 2015 from iSuppli and doubled it for 5 years. Unless iSuppli is wildly wrong, my estimates are absolutely approaching some "highest of the high" possible scenario.

Here's the iSuppli press release. http://www.isuppli.com/Display-Mater...ce-at-CES.aspx

Those people make their living talking to people in the display industry. They talked to the people at Samsung and LG and they generated the figures you see. Those figures already represent exponential growth. If you add my 5 year compounded 100% growth from there, the curve looks like a freaking vertical line. You are entitled to believe that things can grow faster than that. No industry has in the history of mankind, but you can believe it.

The presence of LG and Samsung adds massive amounts of data. With the data, the forecasts for 2015 went to 2 million units from essentially zero units prior to 2012 (and approximately 35,000 units this year per iSuppli).

Since you think these people know nothing, here's DisplaySearch's prediction from 3 years ago:

"DisplaySearch forecasts that in 2015, TV will pass mobile phone main display to become the highest-revenue application at $1.92 billion."

So if we divide the current prediction of 2 million TVs in 2015 into a 3-year-old prediction, we would get an average selling price -- for the panel value, not the MSRP of the TV -- of very approximately $1000. That sounds remarkably close to accurate. It would imply an average fully finished TV cost of ~$1500 or so and an average retail price of around $3000.

If we take this year's model at $8000 and drop the price 30% in 2013, 30% in 2014 and 30% in 2015, we get prices of $5600, $3920 and $2744. It's amazing how well this all lines up.

So please, stop explaining how no one knows anything.

What I reported is that LG promised the sets would be "under $15k". I'm using $8K in my example. It actually doesn't matter. The initial price will fall. If the price is not below $3000 in 2015, there would be no chance of selling anywhere near 2 million units. If the sales do more than 100% compounded growth after that it would be nothing short of miraculous. It would also require about $20 billion in fab investment and presumes that people with LCD manufacturing capability will simply let that go fallow as their market gets absorbed by a similar, yet more expensive product. Please.

Actually, they are probably optimistic. But in fact there is a way they are correct. I urge you to look at the history of any capital-intensive technology. Show me more than 100% compounded growth starting in the 4th year on the market. I wish you luck.
All these guesses are just that. Guesses

They are way better than guesses. LG hopes to do the 2013 numbers in 2012. Maybe they will, although nothing in LG's track record at all suggests this. But the point is, that would accelerate the timetable outlined by iSuppli by 1 year, not 5.

By the way, DisplaySearch has a forecast that goes out to at least 2018 and it forecasts revenues, not units (at least not without buying the full one), but it states: "OLED display revenues are estimated to exceed $4 billion in 2011 (approximately 4% of flat panel display revenues), and are forecast to reach more than $20 billion (approximately 16% of the total display industry by 2018)"

Now, that's the entire display industry, which means it includes mobile phones, laptops, etc. Given that OLED will have on the order of 50% of the smartphone market -- or more -- by then and may well dominate the tablet market, a 16% share of revenues (4x as much as today), suggests a TV market share very much around the number I put in my post, +/- a couple of points.

Digitimes also agrees: "While Plasma TV is still a technology in the flat screen TV market its time has passed. The market share is likely to drop from 7% in 2011 to 5% in 2015. A new technology is emerging though, in OLED. OLED TVs will likely join the fight in market of 40-inch and larger in second half of 2012. The market estimates the market share of OLED TVs to reach 2% in the 40-inch and larger category. "

Note, that's 2% of the 40" and up TV market. Shockingly, that's close to 1% of the total market come the 2015 timeframe. Again, their forecast was made last August.

Basically everyone agrees on magnitude and approximately on timing.

You can click my little included chart to see what doubling every year from 2.1 million in 2015 looks like. Feel free to find a chart that's more vertical. Keep in mind that OLEDs are a substitute for an existing good in 99+% of cases. They don't create opportunities that didn't otherwise exist.

LG doesn't make anywhere near as many TVs as you seem to think.

Also, LG has no track record of delivering on time. You want to argue with DisplaySearch, iSupply, Digitmes and me, that's fine. My point is that it doesn't matter. You want to have 2% in 2015 and 4% in 2016? Certainly that's possible. Much more than that? That's as close to impossible as anything.

"Dupont big goal is to produce cheap and large OLED-Tv panels. The goal is to make a mass production line which the Flat-Tv panel manufacturer can print a 50-55 inch OLED-Television under two minutes. To reach this goal Dupont plans to develop a small prototype manufacturing facility in Newark for OLED panels.
The Council on Development finance approved for that goal 920.000 dollars grant from the Delaware Strategic Fund.
DuPont is investing $30 million of its own funds to install equipment at its Stine-Haskell Research Center off Elkton Road in Newark, the state reported."
" At the CES-2012 LG-Electronics and Samsung showcased 55 inch OLED-Tv prototypes. The price of this panels is expected up to 6000 dollars. With Duponts technology it will help to bring the price down.
Dupont has already signed a licensing agreement with an Asian company to produce large OLED-Tv with this technology. We expect that this company is Samsung. Dupont earns 20 million dollar for that licensing deal" - http://www.oled-display.net/dupont-p...oduction-line/

"AMOLED televisions clearly represent the future. They are preferred by consumers for their superior performance, they are more energy efficient and the process technology we’re licensing allows them to be manufactured much more cost effectively,” said David B. Miller, president, DuPont Electronics & Communications. “We look forward to helping make the promise of AMOLED television a commercial reality at a price point that is within reach for the mass consumer market.”
“Over the last several years, DuPont has used its substantial resources as a market-driven science company to solve significant technical challenges associated with the cost-effective manufacture of AMOLED displays. As a result, DuPont has developed a unique manufacturing process and innovative materials tailored to work with it,” said William F. Feehery, global business director, DuPont Electronics & Communications. “By licensing display manufacturers to make AMOLED displays using DuPont process technology, we will also build a business selling proprietary DuPont OLED materials.”
"Based on industry estimates, the AMOLED television market is projected to grow to over $5 billion by 2017."
- http://www2.dupont.com/OLED/en_US/wh...e20111102.html

"One caveat for numbers released by Strategy Analytics and other research firms comes from the fact that Samsung no longer reports mobile phone sales numbers, ending the practice in mid-2010 for competitive reasons. Consequently, observers can only estimate Samsung's sales numbers based on the company's financial performance and other evidence."

It is not outselling the iphone today. According to shipment estimates and marketshare trends the iPhone 4S has regained momentum and is edging out the Samsung. I do have to note, that because Samsung no longer reports its phone sales, this is all speculation and guess work so I wouldn't use it to support your claims/position.

How's the burn in?

That is an absolutely terrible report to try and back up your point. That report is from March 2009 and they were predicting a sub-$2 billion dollar OLED market in mobile applications in the year 2015. Samsung obliterated that goal in 2011 (>$3 billion).

DisplaySearch is a nice data point on the current state of the market. I also believe that their forecasts could be right if they are right on pricing....but I dont have any illusions as to their ability to forecast pricing right.

According to this article from earlier today, LG have said that they will produce 48,000 units per month, starting in July. If so, this iSupply forecast for 2012 will be obsolete by August and by December 2012 LG will have reached the forecasted number for 2013.

This would match with the production target of 200,000 to 300,000 for 2012 that was reported by Forbes earlier this month. The same report mentioned a 2013 target of up to 2,000,000 units. If this holds true we will be 2 years ahead of the iSupply forecasted curve by the end of 2013

When quoting sales figures, let's be sure to be clear about what we are talking about.

There can be a really big difference between sales to dealers and actual sell-through to consumers, especially early in a new product launch. It can take many units and several months to fill the retail pipeline with product.

CE companies usually speak in terms of sales to dealers. So lets not confuse that with retail sales.

Can someone explain to me the obsession with sales numbers and market shares that AVS has taken on over the last 5 or so years?

Is it that you think bigger market share will drive prices down and the tech forward?

Because let me tell you, I don't care if LG/Samsung/SONY/Whoeverelse are selling these things by the millions or hundreds as all I am interested is just the single unit that I am going to buy.

That's probably part of it, but I would say mostly because it's fun.

No, it's not a bad data point. Everyone's forecast for OLED TVs lines up. Including one I grabbed from 3 years ago. They line up with today's forecasts. I'm not sure why that's difficult to grasp.

Do you actually believe that the product of OLED TVs in 2015 will be significantly above the 2 million that everyone is forecasting? If so, perhaps you can provide a number. I've already explained that I believe twice that number is within the bounds of reality.


They said no such thing. Capacity does not equal product. They will be fortunate to produce 48,000 total units this year! They will probably hope by the middle of next year to be running somewhere at capacity meaning they won't produce at capacity for all of 2013 either. To date, they have produced a couple thousand 15" displays ever. I'm not sure what people think happens here, but one thing I can tell you is that production yields are 50% early on, that's probably a miracle (and cuts "capacity" in half by the way).

Announcing the factory capacity is signaling, it's not an intent to produce. In the display industry, it never has meant that. Or perhaps you are watching the 5 million Sharp 70" TVs they have the capacity to produce per year? Oh wait, they only made about 300,000 in 2011. (Including the 60" production, that Sharp plant still didn't run anywhere near capacity. It's 3 years old or so.)

As I said earlier, if the 2ish million occurred in 2014 instead of 2015, I wouldn't be completely stunned. If it occurred in 2013, I'd be fairly stunned. The prices of OLED TVs would have to be below $4000 for that to happen, which seems very very unlikely. Never mind the production issues.


Yes, absolutely. More sales, lower prices, more progress = more better. By the way, I'm buying my next TV from Whoeverelse, I love their designs.

May I ask what is your current TV?

In case of LG, it's definitely "signaling"! -Signaling to Panasonic, Toshiba, Philips, Apple, Vizio and everyone else, intent to produce PANELS for them- as much as possible! LG known to be friends with everybody...

Capacity just means what the maximum number of units per month they will be able to start turning out; but it does not mean that they will run at production capacity, if the distributors and retailers do not place enough orders for to justify running at full production capacity. Furthermore, we do not know what the spoilage /defective numbers may turn out to be, which could reduce the monthly capacity by a significant number. They will only ship as many panels as they have received orders for.

There are too many unknowns at this stage for the usual suspects on here to be back strutting their Nostradamus pretensions , and hijacking the thread once more. Here is an idea: start a predictions thread where all of you can lock horns, and offer stupid bets as to which one of you is the best meaninless wild guesser, of futuristic rubbish.

Glad to know I'm not the only one realizing this. Or feeling that way for that matter.

I bet you $5 that doesn't happen

Yes, a number of you are wrong. This isn't about my ego, it's actually about what's possible. Things can only grow so fast. We aren't talking about making iPads (which is about assembling existing parts in a novel way). We're talking about entirely novel manufacturing.


You may ask, it's an older Panasonic plasma. We are replacing it no later than summer of this year with what I'm currently expecting to be a new Panasonic plasma or a Sharp 945 LCD. I think I've knocked everything else off my short list at this point.

I expect to buy the first 70" OLED that's out. Sadly, I'm afraid that's a good 5 years away.

Mine doesn't have any after 6 months. Mostly on auto-brightness, display mode set to "Cinema" - the least garish, but the colours are still blown out. Awesome contrast, colour accuracy is laughable and I suspect the rendition is all over the place versus brightness. But it's absolutely perfect for reading. The lower ppi compared with the iPhone 4 is not really an issue. This is probably because Android uses sub-pixel rendering and AMOLED pixels are emissive, as opposed to a backlight light leaking through a grid. So you get some smoothing for free.

BTW, I have an NEC LCD20GWX2 monitor. It has an IPS panel and image retention. White windows linger on a black background. Though it's not as noticeable as it used to be (I'm probably ignoring it). Though I used this monitor with a Mac for a long time, and the damn Apple menu took a while to go away.

Also, I used to hear a lot of reports of iMacs getting image retention 4-5 years back, but not recently. Perhaps LG finally fixed it on their IPS panels. Maybe AMOLED will likewise improve to the point that it's no longer an issue.

Yes, the Sharp 945 seems promising as it may inherit some of the Elite's technology at lesser cost. It also comes in 60'' and 70'' sizes. Could be an upgrade/interim solution before OLED are reasonably priced. Would you care to venture the price of a 60'' Sharp 945, given that of an Elite now hovers around 4,800$ ?