Can you find this quote where I said there would be no OLED TVs before 2014. I'm not saying it doesn't exist (some version of it probably does), but I think it would be informative to see the context of it. It's probably dramatically different from what you are claiming it is.
Originally Posted by David_B
So, let' say that LG and Samsung ship only a couple of thousand OLED tvs this year, and continue with the same models into next year.
That's STILL 2 years before rogo said we would EVER see an OLED TV.
Who's going to be eating crow again? Certainly not the one's saying OLED production would begin this year.
You read what you want and ignore what rogo's wrong about.
The reason I ask for you (or someone) to find it is because I tried to search recently and found a lack of recent references -- between AVS' lousy search and struggling to coax Google to do what I wanted, I only got so far... There was definitely a time where I was very negative on things shipping -- most probably due to year after year of bogus promises from LG mostly -- but I'd like to see what the conversation was about.
OK, so I found some of the stuff I was looking for. Here's probably about the most "shockingly bad" prediction I've made (from November 2010):
Originally Posted by slacker711
Of course, for those who cant wait, a $10,000 55" OLED TV might be a possibility in early 2012....though I'm not sure I'd want to be a guinea pig for that kind of money .
So I'd put the probability of such a TV at 1% chance.
And the probability of that price in 2012 (assuming the TV exists) at 0%.
---So I was certainly right that the TV wouldn't ship in early 2012. What will prove to be wrong -- if anyone ships -- is that the price might be $10,000 or even somewhat less. Of course, no one has shipped yet and the post in question specifically refers to Samsung, which is somewhat less likely to ship. Part of the discussion I linked refers to some pilot line Samsung was allegedly building that would be able to produce 4,000 TVs per month by "the end of next year". I knew it wouldn't happen and of course it didn't. Anyway, this prediction -- already half right -- might prove significantly wrong in the coming months. Worth watching.
If one continues to read the same thread, one can see where my skepticism came from.
Not everything depends on glass size. There is no real precedent in the history of flat panel displays for a technology that has yet to scale to 15 inches in a mass-produceable form to suddenly appear at 55 inches.
Due to things like yield, even if the glass allows for 55-inch OLEDs (which it might, but I'm more than a little skeptical), the factory will instead turn out smaller displays so that they don't end up with single-digit yields.
So the "miss" there is that I'm correct this has never happened before. Nothing that has been in production at 15" has mysteriously and magically scaled to 55". Why? Because it's hard. If you look at TFT LCD it scaled very very slowly in size. Plasma was first commercialized for TV at 42" (it actually didn't work well much smaller, although 32" plasmas were once available thanks to the Fujitsu-Hitachi Plasma joint venture), but took a long time to scale to 60".
Of course, the miss was narrow. I mean, the conversation was in 2010 about things happening in 2011. They didn't. And it's low late in 2012 and still nothing has happened. Now, again, there are 3 months left in the year to ship something. If it ships in the developed world such that real people can buy it, I'll have been proved wrong. That goes without saying. Until then, things have unfolded as I expected.
One thing that wasn't anticipated by me -- or really anyone else here and not much elsewhere -- was that LG would commercialize RGBW and target 8G production. Whether that was to catch up to what they feared from Samsung or was actually what motivated Samsung in the first place I can't say. But clearly that tech is a game changer. It doesn't rely on development science fiction -- like printable OLEDs that we've been reading about since at least 2000 but still don't exist -- but instead allows for OLED TVs without the development of any new manufacturing techniques at all. That's what's so exciting about it.
On the pages leading up to that, there is much chatter about a 31" $9000 LG that is promised for 2011 (never existed of course) and my general skepticism of OLED reaching volume production and cost targets. I also seem to stake out a pretty clear devil's advocate position in that it's clear I'm aware of OLED success in smartphones, but suggest it will be some time before they become ubiquitous. (And that's been proved true. And I believe they will eventually dominate smartphones, as Slacker was saying back then. Please note, if you look only
at high-end smartphones, you get a very bad sense of market share for OLEDs in smartphones. You think they are much more prevalent than they are. That said, the prevalence is growing.)
Anyway, here's some more fodder for you:
We could make a case that OLED is now only 4 years away. Let's not pretend a $9000 31-inch TV coming out in 2011 augurs in a new era where time will suddenly accelerate. Let's also not pretend that OLED has any advantages in inexpensive manufacturing, which is something we were promised over and over that proved to be patently false. We don't even hear that the 4-inch ones are cheap to make; in fact they apparently cost more than TFTs of the same size.
Since we can basically limited 2011 to one overpriced tiny TV, we can plot a trajectory pretty reliably. That trajectory is that 50 inch sets won't be out before 2013 and will still be astronomically expensive. It tells us that by the time 60-inch sets are out and are only ridiculously expensive, we might be looking at LCDs better than the ones I posited and costing under $1000.
So what's great about this is this is from October 2010. Two years have elapsed. If I said now, "mainstream OLED is about 2 years away... you should be able to buy them in 2013, but only in 2014 will the prices come down the first notch and make them even slightly reasonable to consider", it would be a set of statements that only a fool would rebut. So the part from 2010 where I say, "We could make a case that OLED is now only 4 years away" looks pretty darned good. Then I added the stuff about the 50-inch being out in 2013 and "astronomically expensive". So let's correct the errors in that prediction. (1) It will be 55 inches (2) It might slip in weeks before 2013. This is hardly feeling wrong.
What actually feels most shaky to me is the notion of truly great LCDs that are affordable. The Sony HX850 is very good and it's $2400 for a 55". I mean that's a good deal vs. several years ago, but it's still edge lit and it's still $2400. That's a soft target for OLED to the extent that the early adopters will buy the "best" for sme premium. Of course, we are talking <2x so we mean a sub $5000 OLED. That's 40% below the anticipated intro price of $8000. And that assumes the 55" high end LCD is a fixed target. Presumably, by 2014, that tier of TV is (a) better (b) probably around $2000. And, of course, a decent 55" LCD is around $1000.
When I first read that stuff back I was like, "Wow, Rogo, you were off base" but it doesn't actually look that way. It looks like I was both staking out the skeptical pole amidst all the hype and yet pretty close to spot on with timing.
The stuff that is going to be most "wrong" if things ship this year is wrong mostly by weeks or months. The fact they went straight to 55" is something. It will also be interesting to see how few units really ship in 2013. I mean the presence of product in the marketplace is very, very important. But if unit shipments don't reach into the six figures, the impact of all this -- both on the market and more importantly on the learning curve -- will be very small.Edited by rogo - 9/2/12 at 5:10pm