Sony Crystal LED Display - new display tech - Page 10

Again, you're trying to use past precident and a completely different type of technology to say what will happen here. You're guessing, and I'm guessing... only I have a few supposed inside rumours saying it's coming. You're being pessimistic about their chances, and I'm being optimistic. Without additional, reliable evidence on the matter there isn't much point in arguing about this further as neither of us will budge from our current position.

As for why not use it in the pro division, who knows maybe they will. Or maybe size of the displays will be a factor. It's funny that CLED has the opposite problem that all other TV technologies have had... they all had to start small and work to grow to large sizes, but from what we know of the tech, it actually seems like it's easier to go bigger with CLED and will be harder to shrink it down to small sizes. I do have a dream that one day we'll see CLED on smart phones and tablets, but for now that remains just a dream.

Please don't talk down to me. I am fully aware of what CLED represents and that it presents a mind boggingly complex challange to Sony to build it. The mere fact that they HAVE built such TVs to show the world proves it can be done, it's now just a matter of how expensive it is to manufacture the CLED screen segments, the failure rate (which BTW is a good thing here since failure of a tiny segment should cost a lot less than failure of an entire OLED panel which helps makde CLED more cost effective in the long run), and how effectively they can put those tiny segments together to form a seamless display.

Again, we have proof that it can be done. They've shown it to the world. If the CLED segments can be made cheaply enough and have a good enough failure rate, then the biggest and pretty much only major hurdle that I can see has been overcome. It seems that they've worked out the whole mounting issue since they were able to build the prototypes, and they've had time to work on perfecting the technique, assuming it does need perfecting. From where I sit, I'm hopeful we'll see this tech soon and think we will. You obviously don't think so, and neither of us will convince each other that their case is strong enough to change our minds. There just isn't enough factual evidence available.

This is November 1 . . . only 60 days left to 4th quarter 2012. So IF Sony was going to bring forth it's CLED TVs wouldn't they have already made announcements saying such?

Take a look at their brand new 84" UHDTV. They already have them in some of their Sony stores. You can't buy one yet. You can only pre-order one. And do you know what the delivery date is . . . according to Sony? November 2012.

It isn't a case of being optomistic or pessimistic. It's a case of understanding the television business versus just reading rumors on the internet.

We do not know that. Take a look at OLED. They can make them tiny (smart phones), they can make them small (15" PC monitor) but to make them large (55") has caused them all kinds of problems.

Did you know Sony uses OLED for some of their Pro Monitors?

http://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/cat-monitors/cat-oledmonitors/

I doubt Sony is doing much with the tech at all, to be honest.

I certainly doubt they have taken any meaningful steps to manufacture it.

Sony proved they could make a prototype. They have yet to prove they can mass produce such a product, and price it in such a way that consumers will buy it and they will make money doing it.

BTW, Sony will need a brand new FAB to manufacture this TV. Why haven't we heard about Sony setting up such a FAB? We hear about all the other CEMs FABs.

The supposed recent rumours indicated they were beginning mass production this quarter, not launching the product. If they are very close to launching this, my guess is CES is the place they'll do it. If CES comes and goes with no mention of CLED, that's when I'll agree these rumours are likely bunk.

Yep, this bit about CLED being made up of smaller segments isn't confirmed, but I'm working with what we've got. Although one of the interviews on Youtube with a Sony rep seemed to support the idea what it is a bunch of segments and you can just keep building larger once you work out the secret of making and mounting them.

As for why I say it's easier to make larger sets, well it's kinda obvious why that is. With CLED once you can build the screen segments and figure out how to mount them, you can just keep building bigger and bigger. With OLED, you've got to work out an entirely new process for building a far larger screen and if it's got any defects, the entire thing has to be scrapped. If a CLED segment has a defect, you just replace it. So if you have the CLED screen segments to make a 55" 1080p display, you can use 4 times the amount of those exact same screen components and presto, you now have a 110" 4k TV! Building big is a pretty trivial thing for CLED. Building small is harder because you now have to increase the pixel density on those CLED segments.

lol, yes I did. I'm a bit of a Sony nut so I keep close tabs on their businesses.

Well that's what we're now waiting to hear! If all of these recent rumours are true, then we should hear something between now and CES. All we can now do is wait and see.

Oh, they will show their 55" CLED prototype again. You can count on that. And if as your rumors say, then they should definitely announce a delivery month. Not a quarter mind you - a specific month because that's what Sony does when they have a new product that they can sell, either to consumers or professionals.

Would you please post a link to that Youtube presentation

Have you seen this one?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4AHp9LLYIU

You are guessing - nothing more. You don't even know if this "segment" thing is actually how they will build CLEDs.

If it's harder to put more LEDs on one of your supposed segments, then how will Sony bring CLED tech up to UHDTV standards?

Whose equipment is Sony going to use to set up a FAB to manufacturer their CLED TVs? Sony doesn't manufacturer the kind of equipment that would be needed.

Yes I have. Here is the one I was referring to. It's an official video done by Sony via SGNL. View from 3:30 to 4:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dxXUtx2RN0


Well yeah, I have already said multiple times I am guessing, and so are you.

UHDTV standards relate to overall resolution. If you can build a 1080p TV then you just use 4x the amount of the same screen segments and presto you have a far larger UHDTV


Damned if I know, Santa Clause? It's a corporate secret that has not been revealed yet. Again, we will have to play the waiting game to see who is correct.

No I'm not. I am using time tested logic. . . . If you want to foretell the future . . . look back to the past. This is something you are totally ignoring.

Well if they can do that then . . . presto! They can build a 32" CLED or a 21" model - it would make a great PC monitor.

You don't know much about Japanese Patent law do you? You definitely don't know how TVs are manufacturered - ie; from prototype to mass production. All you know is . . . rumors.

More apples and oranges to add to the pile, but Pioneer made a prototype of an infinite black Plasma back at CES 2008, and we can unfortunately see where they are now. Sony has them one-upped in the rumor dept to which you've latched on, but I don't think they're gonna' rise like the phoenix by some miracle, especially given the dire straits of their competitors who are struggling to sell their own top-of-the-line TVs.

Sony has developed CLED in their secret lab, the prototype we saw is the result of this research. Nothing else is going on

Yeah, as I said you're using guesswork as well

Well... sure... if you want a smaller screen with lower resolution, or if they can develop CLED segments with a higher pixel density. The smallest size we know of so far is 55" and Sony themselves have said CLED is suitable for large size screens. That would indicate that either smaller sized HD displays are either not possible, or not possible just yet.

Nope, don't know a lick about Japanese patent law. Do you?

As for going from prototype to mass production, this is a completely different form factor for constructing a TV and there is no precident to fall back upon in this case. At this point my rumours are just as valid as your speculation.

Decades old business practices and procedures is not "guesswork."

Ah . . . the ONLY size we know of is 55". Are you aware that according to the most recent sales figures for televisions worldwide, displays that are 50" or larger only represent 12% of total TV sales.

Well - more than you obviously do.

No it isn't. This "form factor" as you call it has been around for years. It's how they make the large outdoor displays . All Sony is doing is miniaturizing it for indoor consumer displays. Just as PDP, LCD, MMD and OLED were/are new television tecnologies, they all followed the same road from prototype to mass market. CLED is no different. To think it is just shows ignorance.

Hardly!

Even educated guesswork is still guesswork

Let me put it this way, what facts do you have? None? Then it's guesswork.

... okay?

The concept has been around for decades. This particular application is brand new. The CLED segments are brand new, and their ease of production, failure rate, reliability and performance are what're in question to determine how soon we will see them on the market. There is no prior precident for this application. Using LCD, Plasma, OLED and large outdoor LED displays are irrelevant when discussing CLED.

If you say so.

There is a difference between statistical analysis . . . and guesswork..

Sony's TV business is CTD . . . Circling The Drain. They need something that will sell in the millions right away . A 55" CLED isn't it. Just like it won't be their 84" UHDTV.

Do you know 100% for sure that they are going to use segments to build a CLED or is that just more guesswork? All those prior TV technologies can be used as precidents for CLED. It's just one more TV tech, that's all. The only difference will be the manufacturing process, just like all the others.

Yep, statistical analysis of completely different TV technologies that have absolutely nothing to do with this brand new technology. Guesswork.

What Sony needs is a new "Trinitron" for the modern era. CLED could be that tech, so could OLED. If Kaz is aiming to bring the TV division back to profitability by 2014, those steps have to be taken in 2013 for the profit to be there the following year. So once again, we play the waiting game and see what they have up their sleeves.

Based on what we can gather from the Sony TV engineer who talking about building larger once you figure out how to put the LEDs together? It certainly seems that way. And I'll repeat for the umpteenth time for you, I'm also using guesswork based on what little we can find online. There are people online who supposedly have inside information, and we can listen to them and hope what they tell us is true, but at the end of the day we have to wait for official confirmation. If all of these rumours are true, we should have the answer anytime between now and CES.

It's just another brand new TV tech. It is going to follow the exact same path that all the others did:

1. Design a concept
2. Build a prototype
3. Build a pilot line to manufacturer a few hundred to see where issues are, where money can be saved, etc
4. Build a full production line

Neither CLED, OLED nor UHDTV is going to help Sony bring back profitability to their TV division by 2014. They will all be too expensive to be considered mass market products.

If any additional info about CLED is coming, it will be at CES. It doesn't look like Sony had a CLED TV at CEATEC Japan last month:

http://www.noodls.com/view/3B677584B2813A7E494A237916C9EED18E65C848

The most ardent of Sony fans have a knack for putting their heads in the clouds.

Please stop. They are not close to launching this. Really, they are not. They have (a) not announced plans to even build it (b) they have not started the development of any process by which to manufacture it. Without (b) they are nowhere close to launching it.
I feel as though I largely confirmed that at last year's CES.
All of that is logical except for the part where they can make the "segments" and then interconnect them. Neither of those is true at this time. Nor is it clear that a method of making a TV this way would yield a seam-free deisgn with sufficiently small tolerances. It's certainly possible, but hardly confirmed.

I'm not even sure that's true. There are multiple assumptions here that this technology is something that Sony is committed to doing anything with. I'd like to believe that too, but I'm not persuaded anything that's happened in the past 9 months has suggested that's the case.
What are these rumors? Where are they sourced from?

Exactly. The question is how far along they are in that process. Assuming these rumours are true, then they're close. Also just because no one present here is aware of any such production facilities or contracts for companies to manufacture CLED for Sony doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Like I've been saying all along, we have to wait and see.

One would assume they're not relying on CLED alone, but also their LCD line and possibly OLED if they manage to get that out within the next year. Anyways that's their goal, we'll see if they can actually do it.

We are in agreement


Really? Please re-read my posts. All I've stated here is that we have rumours suggesting it may be close and we will have to wait for official confirmation.


As I've asked Lee, are you speaking from facts or from speculation? We're all guessing at what's going on here right now.

Good stuff!

It seems like they have some ability to do it since they built the prototypes. And again, it seems like you're speaking as though you know this is fact, but I have yet to see any actual evidence. Care to present any?

http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20121005-903831.html?mod=crnews

I'm speaking from facts. These are facts: "They have (a) not announced plans to even build it (b) they have not started the development of any process by which to manufacture it. Without (b) they are nowhere close to launching it." None of that is speculation.

[quote[It seems like they have some ability to do it since they built the prototypes. [/quote]

No, the prototype means they can build a prototype. The ability to build a prototype has almost nothing to do with manufacturing a set for mass production. Ask Toshiba about their amazing sales of SED TVsf for the past 6 years. Or about the 100 million OLED TVs sold since 2005. Oh, wait.
Please stop. I'm asking nicely. This is like you requiring evidence that Bigfoot doesn't exist. The only person needing to provide evidence is the one that insists Bigfoot does exist.
OK, so I have no idea who those folks are and thank you for linking that item. It's obviously drivel, but I thank you for linking it.

It's Q4 2012. Do you see any Sony CLED products? Of course you don't. I don't have a clue where those people conjured up this fantasy, but the fact that Sony has made no mention of the technology at all is what you need to pay attention to.

If they do indeed bring it back to CES, we'll try to get information from them (assuming I even go to CES this year, which I'm really on the fence about).

I am probably a bigger fan of Sony displays than most here, and I would hate to see them fail, but even I don't expect CLED to be on the market any time Soon. In fact, I'm pretty sure I recall Sony themselves saying that they had no plans for commercialization any time soon, and that it was only a technology demo at CES.

Don't forget that this was one of the first companies to demo large OLED prototypes, and they did so for several years before releasing a product. They currently only service the professional market, and have not announced any plans for large scale OLED production like Samsung/LG.

I followed the link and it came to this site. You can read all about their research in a pdf which you can purchase for $300

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/gf8xxk/expecting_sony_to

A great way to make money obviously.

€235 ADD TO BASKET
winkwink

Rogo, my entire point all along has been that we should have an answer on this CLED matter sometime in the next 2 months between now and CES. It won't take long to see where Sony will go with this tech.

My entire point is (a) we probably won't have any kind of answer at all in the next 2 months and (b) it will probably take years to see where Sony goes with the technology, if anywhere.

Greenland and others correctly note that the Japanese TV makers are all dying -- literally, this isn't some overstatement. The idea that Sony is really focused on commercializing a unique display technology quickly without leverage off a larger ecosystem of display-making equipment strains the imagination.

cled if made would be a high end set. arguably the two best dispalys over the last 5 years were the pio kuro elite and the sharp elite. one such manufacturer is now out the
display business and the other appears soon to be.

given sony's financial issues, i don't see them investing in such a high end display any time soon.

My only fear is that after going to CES and seeing their Crystal LED, I won't be able to buy a plasma to hold me over until better tech comes out. I've managed to hold out nearly 2 years now and now I'll be waiting at least another 6 for the new VT line from Panasonic.