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Samsung Predicts Plasma Around Until 2020

post #1 of 60
Thread Starter 
I keep hearing about the imminent demise of plasma, but Samsung recently said they feel plasma will be around until at least the year 2020. I agree. While LCD has gained popularity for a variety of factors, it's not for everyone, and can't replace plasma in all situations. Motion resolution, gaming input lag, 3D ghosting, and off-axis viewing problems are still major factors. Other LCD issues include clouding, and screen door effect, which some people find unacceptable. By the way, I am not bashing LCD. I am just pointing out why LCD would not an acceptable replacement for plasma for some people.

I feel Samsung has based the year 2020 on their projections for OLED ramp up. It will take quite a few years before OLED can be price competitive with plasma.

Michael
post #2 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael2000 View Post

I keep hearing about the imminent demise of plasma, but Samsung recently said they feel plasma will be around until at least the year 2020. I agree. While LCD has gained popularity for a variety of factors, it's not for everyone, and can't replace plasma in all situations. Motion resolution, gaming input lag, 3D ghosting, and off-axis viewing problems are still major factors. Other LCD issues include clouding, and screen door effect, which some people find unacceptable. By the way, I am not bashing LCD. I am just pointing out why LCD would not an acceptable replacement for plasma for some people.

I feel Samsung has based the year 2020 on their projections for OLED ramp up. It will take quite a few years before OLED can be price competitive with plasma.

Michael

But will there be a plasma that is better than a 9G Kuro by 2020?
post #3 of 60
With a reported 50% brightness increase from 2012 panny plasmas (i would assume samsung is similar) it's only a matter of time before there is no difference compared to LCD in store displays. I think Samsung is pretty accurate with their estimate.
post #4 of 60
IMHO, Plasmas will be around longer than LCDs. LCD is a flawed technology, and always will be. Even though not as practical today, "True" (i.e. inorganic) LEDs are the only real answer to display technology. They will eventually take over LCDs, and finally Plasmas. If I were a betting man, I'd bet Sony will be the first to bring one to market (hint CLED), and claim their place at the top of the hill once again.
post #5 of 60
It's funny because I had this very conversation at CES... at the Samsung booth.

And the conclusion we reached (myself and some random Samsung people and some random other people) was that plasma will be around until about 2020. Incremental improvements, low costs of production, a pretty steady niche market share.... Rumors of plasma's demise has been greatly exaggerated for a long while.

What will ultimately undo plasma is that it's simply not power competitive and it simply doesn't have the production volumes to justify continued investment on the level of other technologies. Plasma has been skating at around the very approximately ~10% of the TV market share for awhile which means there have been 10x as many LCDs built for several years -- and by more companies. OLED will begin to enjoy similar scale-economic-based learning-curve effects over the coming years.

Eventually plasma will become a power-hungry, no-longer-inexpensive, good-quality display that no one makes anymore. (Oh, and for those fans of lightweight TVs, it will be heavier than everything by quite a bit as it already is heavier than LCD by a good amount and OLED will be lighter!) Videophiles will have a few more chances to buy good ones until something truly better -- or a great LCD at a more reasonable price -- comes along.
post #6 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael2000 View Post

I keep hearing about the imminent demise of plasma, but Samsung recently said they feel plasma will be around until at least the year 2020. I agree. While LCD has gained popularity for a variety of factors, it's not for everyone, and can't replace plasma in all situations. Motion resolution, gaming input lag, 3D ghosting, and off-axis viewing problems are still major factors. Other LCD issues include clouding, and screen door effect, which some people find unacceptable. By the way, I am not bashing LCD. I am just pointing out why LCD would not an acceptable replacement for plasma for some people.

I feel Samsung has based the year 2020 on their projections for OLED ramp up. It will take quite a few years before OLED can be price competitive with plasma. Michael

Exactly one year ago at CES 2011, a Samsung executive stated in an interview that Samsung expects to continue making Plasma TV for at least the next ten years so it's nice to see that they're still sticking to last year's statement. But that's not to say that other unexpected factors may cause the Plasma makers to discontinue them earlier than expected.
post #7 of 60
Well, I don't agree that Plasma will be around longer than LCD to whomever said that. That won't happen.

But with OLED around the corner Plasma's days are limited as it's a drop in replacement for plasma. Picture quality will be back and better than ever once they're in a few generations. In fact I bet long before 2020 OLED will have the best picture quality ever achieved for a consumer set.

OLED computer monitors I don't see being usable unless they can make them so they don't unevenly wear and cause burn in. I sure don't want a permanent widget bar on my mac and permanent start bar on my windows boxes. Needing a screen saver will be back again if OLED ever does make it big for computer displays.
post #8 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiGGy View Post

Well, I don't agree that Plasma will be around longer than LCD to whomever said that. That won't happen.

But with OLED around the corner Plasma's days are limited as it's a drop in replacement for plasma. Picture quality will be back and better than ever once they're in a few generations. In fact I bet long before 2020 OLED will have the best picture quality ever achieved for a consumer set.

OLED computer monitors I don't see being usable unless they can make them so they don't unevenly wear and cause burn in. I sure don't want a permanent widget bar on my mac and permanent start bar on my windows boxes. Needing a screen saver will be back again if OLED ever does make it big for computer displays.

IMHO, "Inorganic" LEDs will be the do all end all. OLEDs have too many issues, just like LCDs (and Plasmas for that matter). LCDs will still be used for computers for a while, but will fade out of the TV market. Plasmas will still be a around in the TV market as a low cost option, maybe fading out to OLEDs.

But, ILED is the only tech that can solve all problems with TV displays. I predict by 2020, ILEDs will be the top of the line and what all videophiles will want. And by 2030 ILEDs will take over 90% of the market, including computer monitors. AND, they will (probably well before 2030) enter movie theaters as huge, bright screens, not possible with projectors. How about drive ins coming back.

BUT, I could be wrong...
post #9 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiGGy View Post

Well, I don't agree that Plasma will be around longer than LCD to whomever said that. That won't happen.

But with OLED around the corner Plasma's days are limited as it's a drop in replacement for plasma. Picture quality will be back and better than ever once they're in a few generations. In fact I bet long before 2020 OLED will have the best picture quality ever achieved for a consumer set.

OLED computer monitors I don't see being usable unless they can make them so they don't unevenly wear and cause burn in. I sure don't want a permanent widget bar on my mac and permanent start bar on my windows boxes. Needing a screen saver will be back again if OLED ever does make it big for computer displays.

I'm sure uneven wearing will be fixed if you're refering to the blue diode not lasting so long, because IIRC, early plasmas had a similar issue w/ longevity and are now fine. Burn-in I have not read will be a significant problem. Probably just as likely to get burn in on OLED as CRT, which only happened in arcades from what i've seen.

The biggest problem i've seen with ILED is random failure. I've got an LED LCD in the store here where one of the LEDs failed and if you've ever seen billboards at stadiums, sides of building, etc you'd be lucky to come across one that doesn't have less than 5 failed LEDs. Not saying pixel failure never happens on other tech, but it seems more likely to occur with LEDs in my experience.

Also, can an ILED even be made small enough for TV's <42" and I wonder what the energy consumption would be for an entire screen? There has to be a reason they've chosen OLED over ILED.
post #10 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by maygit View Post

The biggest problem i've seen with ILED is random failure. I've got an LED LCD in the store here where one of the LEDs failed and if you've ever seen billboards at stadiums, sides of building, etc you'd be lucky to come across one that doesn't have less than 5 failed LEDs. Not saying pixel failure never happens on other tech, but it seems more likely to occur with LEDs in my experience.

Also, can an ILED even be made small enough for TV's <42" and I wonder what the energy consumption would be for an entire screen? There has to be a reason they've chosen OLED over ILED.

I'm not sure if you seen this, but Sony showed off a prototype at CES 2012. Here's a link in the other forum talking about it: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1386177

I'm sure LED reliability will be a small issue to overcome. And my guess why OLED seems to be more popular right now is it's easier to assemble. However after reading more about ILED, that seems to be solvable. I was even reading where they can make flexible, transparent ILEDs: http://www.popsci.com/scitech/articl...n-organic-leds

Funny, it seems all the problems with ILEDs are the same problems computers had back in the day. I think once these issues are solved, there will be no stopping ILEDs.

But again, I could be wrong...
post #11 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nytro View Post

I'm not sure if you seen this, but Sony showed off a prototype at CES 2012. Here's a link in the other forum talking about it: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1386177

I'm sure LED reliability will be a small issue to overcome. And my guess why OLED seems to be more popular right now is it's easier to assemble. However after reading more about ILED, that seems to be solvable. I was even reading where they can make flexible, transparent ILEDs: http://www.popsci.com/scitech/articl...n-organic-leds

Funny, it seems all the problems with ILEDs are the same problems computers had back in the day. I think once these issues are solved, there will be no stopping ILEDs.

But again, I could be wrong...

Ya I did hear and read what little there was about sony's Crystal LED, but for some reason I had this confused with another OLED variation like LGs WOLED-CF (RGBW). Thanks for clearing up that confusion though!

I do get what you're saying now and I guess only time will tell which tech comes out and dominates after both are corrected of major problems. Or perhaps both will survive, each providing different benefits depending on application use?

Back on topic: I'm glad to hear Samsung plans on staying in the plasma game for a while given, as randy said, nothing unexpected comes up and creates the product end. With this plan, we can probably expect another 4-5 years of plasmas in normal sizes and then they will probably begin to phase out the smaller ones (like the 42"ers this year) and take the route of DLP rear projection sets.
post #12 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by maygit View Post

I'm sure uneven wearing will be fixed if you're refering to the blue diode not lasting so long, because IIRC, early plasmas had a similar issue w/ longevity and are now fine. Burn-in I have not read will be a significant problem. Probably just as likely to get burn in on OLED as CRT, which only happened in arcades from what i've seen.

The biggest problem i've seen with ILED is random failure. I've got an LED LCD in the store here where one of the LEDs failed and if you've ever seen billboards at stadiums, sides of building, etc you'd be lucky to come across one that doesn't have less than 5 failed LEDs. Not saying pixel failure never happens on other tech, but it seems more likely to occur with LEDs in my experience.

Also, can an ILED even be made small enough for TV's <42" and I wonder what the energy consumption would be for an entire screen? There has to be a reason they've chosen OLED over ILED.

OLED burn will be an issue until they fix the blue emitters life span. And even then like Plasma it'll still happen. Plenty of Plasma folks with permanent uneven wear on TVs rated to 100k hours. Perhaps once they can hit 250k+ hours it'll be a non-issue? Lets not also forget the reason screen savers were invented was to save your CRT from burning in. The latest (last) revisions of CRTs were very hard to burn in, but still you could see the start menu on any screen that was used for awhile.

OLED is forcasted to cost less in the long run than LCD does to manufacturer once they've fully ramped up in a few years. I can't imagine ILED is cheap to produce. Unless engineers can forecast ILED being as cost effective (profitable) I don't see them jumping on it but for a small niche market.
post #13 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nytro View Post

IMHO, Plasmas will be around longer than LCDs. LCD is a flawed technology, and always will be. Even though not as practical today, "True" (i.e. inorganic) LEDs are the only real answer to display technology. They will eventually take over LCDs, and finally Plasmas. If I were a betting man, I'd bet Sony will be the first to bring one to market (hint CLED), and claim their place at the top of the hill once again.

LED tv is LCD TV with LED lights.
post #14 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by chikoo View Post

LED tv is LCD TV with LED lights.

He's talking about each individual pixel is made up of 3 LED sub pixels (on for Red, Green, and Blue) and therefore there would be no need for the LCD layer. Think of it more similar to plasma technology.

Burn-in is dependent upon how much the luminance of a pixel changes over time vs less used pixels. Again, OLED hasn't been out long enough for me to know, but if the blue diode lasts 14,000 hrs and during that time only degrades 2% (hypothetically) brightness then burn-in likely would not be an issue given the brightness decay is the same for the red and green. If it degrades much faster than that though, then burn-in becomes a greater issue. Correct?
post #15 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiGGy View Post

OLED is forcasted to cost less in the long run than LCD does to manufacturer once they've fully ramped up in a few years. I can't imagine ILED is cheap to produce. Unless engineers can forecast ILED being as cost effective (profitable) I don't see them jumping on it but for a small niche market.

If it solves all (or most) problems with displays, it will be profitable. Cost to manufacture will only come down. Case in point: the first Plasma sold for $15,000, 15 years ago.
post #16 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nytro View Post

If it solves all (or most) problems with displays, it will be profitable. Cost to manufacture will only come down. Case in point: the first Plasma sold for $15,000, 15 years ago.

It is more like $25,000 actually, for the 50" Pioneer. It's true that Philips 42" launched for about $15,000 in the U.S., but the 50" Pioneer was available in commercial settings sooner -- and for more.

So, yes, fundamentally, it's easy to imagine OLED falling in price ~30% for year for a number of years. LCD and plasma both did until they came closer to their "floor prices", at which point the price reductions have been much slower.
post #17 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nytro View Post

If it solves all (or most) problems with displays, it will be profitable. Cost to manufacture will only come down. Case in point: the first Plasma sold for $15,000, 15 years ago.


I'm with ya wanting the best technology. But these companies are in business to make $$. So whatever looks to be the most profitable is probably what will be using in the near future. At the moment OLED seems to be the best be in terms of quality for us and profit for them.
post #18 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

It is more like $25,000 actually, for the 50" Pioneer. It's true that Philips 42" launched for about $15,000 in the U.S., but the 50" Pioneer was available in commercial settings sooner -- and for more.

So, yes, fundamentally, it's easy to imagine OLED falling in price ~30% for year for a number of years. LCD and plasma both did until they came closer to their "floor prices", at which point the price reductions have been much slower.

I was referring to ILED, but the point is the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SiGGy View Post

I'm with ya wanting the best technology. But these companies are in business to make $$. So whatever looks to be the most profitable is probably what will be using in the near future. At the moment OLED seems to be the best be in terms of quality for us and profit for them.

I agree at "the moment" OLED seems to be the best quality that will be coming out soon. But this thread is titled 2020, which is a long time from now. My prediction above still stands. ILEDs will be the do all end all for decades to come. OLED (along with LCD and eventually Plasma) will be dead in the water once ILED (which will be better and cheaper) comes out.

But again, I could be wrong...
post #19 of 60
I say 2019 max
post #20 of 60
Hmm.

To me this says that samsung sees lcd and oled eroding plasma sales pretty quickly over the next 8 years till they don't make any sense to sell anymore.

So price parity in less then 4 years and half the sales numbers for plasma say in 6 years.
post #21 of 60
Just to add to the covo. LCD is not a flawed technology. They have the ability to match or exceed PDPs. But most consumer manufactures take shortcuts and reduce quality control in order to increase yield and cut cost. Edge-LED just made everything worse a lot more.
post #22 of 60
Who is this person at Samsung who made the Plasma prediction? What is their ranking in the company, and does that person have any other purpose in saying that Plasma will be in their lineup for years to come, other than to try and assure would be customers not to be afraid to purchase their current Plasma panels?

How will they be able to get their power consumption number low enough to compete with LED/LCD and OLED, to avoid not being able to meet mandatory energy efficiency levels, that are sure to become more and more strict in the next few years?
post #23 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nielo TM View Post

Just to add to the covo. LCD is not a flawed technology. They have the ability to match or exceed PDPs.

But at what cost, and how many hoops do they need to jump through? If it doesn't have self-illuminating pixels, it's flawed. LCDs will never be able to match the PQ of self-illuminating displays at the same cost.

Bottom line: Simplicity always wins out in the long run, because of cost to manufacture, reliability etc. The most promising (simplistic) design approach for displays is Inorganic LEDs. What could simpler than a bunch of lights mounted together to form a picture? Granted there may be challenges to manufacturing them at the moment (making them small enough), but so was computers for instance. Once these challenges are met, ILEDs will be the true Holy Grail of displays.
post #24 of 60
ILED, OLED, QLED etc. are all emerging tech. Both LCD and Plasma are matured technologies. They are already in mass production and carry a much smaller price tag.

In 2010, Samsung introduced new range of 40 and 46" S-PVA panels capable of producing 0.03 blacks aimed at all ranges (from low to high-end). The only major issue was excessive gamma shift, which meant the viewer has to sit directly at front and from a certain distance (~2-2.5m).

Off angle issue can be improved but the cost of manufacturing could be high hence the reason why consumer LCDs do not feature components such as TW-Polarizer.

ATM everything comes down to cost. I don't mind of companies cut cost without impacting image quality, but that doesn't seem to be case with LCDs.

PDPs however have improved year on year as where LCDs slipped back in the past two years.
post #25 of 60
IPS panel can match the depth produced by plasma but the blacks are too high for night time viewing.
post #26 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nielo TM View Post

ILED, OLED, QLED etc. are all emerging tech. Both LCD and Plasma are matured technologies. They are already in mass production and carry a much smaller price tag.

So was CRTs... lol

Quote:


In 2010, Samsung introduced new range of 40 and 46" S-PVA panels capable of producing 0.03 blacks aimed at all ranges (from low to high-end). The only major issue was excessive gamma shift, which meant the viewer has to sit directly at front and from a certain distance (~2-2.5m).

Off angle issue can be improved but the cost of manufacturing could be high hence the reason why consumer LCDs do not feature components such as TW-Polarizer.

ATM everything comes down to cost. I don't mind of companies cut cost without impacting image quality, but that doesn't seem to be case with LCDs.

PDPs however have improved year on year as where LCDs slipped back in the past two years.

I think you're making my point for me. Companies are cutting LCD quality (i.e. cost), because it's too costly to keep up with PDPs.

I stated LCD is a flawed tech. I think manufactures know it. That's why there's such a push for OLED. I just happen to think ILED is the better tech and will stand the test of time.
post #27 of 60
In terms of size vs cost, CRT is way more expensive than LCDs and PDPs.

LCD is not flawed. There's nothing inherently wrong with it and PDP is no better either.
post #28 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nielo TM View Post

In terms of size vs cost, CRT is way more expensive than LCDs and PDPs.

Let's see a 100 foot LCD or PDP at the same cost of an ILED... lol

Quote:


LCD is not flawed. There's nothing inherently wrong with it and PDP is no better either.

How about viewing angle?
post #29 of 60
IPS panel with TW-Pol has perfect viewing angles

Every tech has its neg points but that doesn't mean its flawed
post #30 of 60
Let's step in a timemachine and travel a year back in time


CES january 8 - 2011, Plasma has 10 more years. Samsung:
http://www.cnet.com.au/plasma-has-10...-339308430.htm

Samsung at a round table meeting at CES january 7 - 2011:
http://www.bigpicturebigsound.com/Sa...ee-3D-TV.shtml
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