Sony 4K and the rest - Page 7

Right now it looks 'something like' seven books playing out over eleven or twelve seasons . . . so there's still some time left to experiment with higher resolution...?!
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Exactly right. Sony is the only one with both the hardware and content to make this happen. They already have their 4K projectors, have announced an 84" 4K LCD direct view, and confirmed the PS4 will be able to play 4K native content. So for those that can afford it, Sony's push into the 4K market should being to start 3rd quarter 2103 and go mainstream with the launch of the PS4 for Christmas 2013. Becasue of the chicken/egg problem there will probably only be a hanful of AAA 4K movies available at launch like the Amazing Spiderman and prices will probably be very high. I would guess $49 or higher MSRP.

So, Sony will build a 4K projector. They won't stay there, but they will also include 4K in their next version of PS. But their studios won't produce 4K content.

No wonder they are doing so poorly with this kind of planning. Or

Amir may be wrong,

like it is possible.

By themselves? Little chance of that happening. I suspect it will take at least 3 studios signing up or nothing will happen. People want to be sure that if the effort goes south (think of it damaging BD prospects with confusion created for the consumer as far as compatibility), they are not the only ones holding the bag .

That said, for random releases not tied to BD format they may produce a piece of content or two (think of give away movies with their TVs and PCs which did not succeed at the end of the day). I was working on something at the time and key to that was data as to what people are willing to pay and what timing is acceptable. I post the question on one of the threads here and not one person answered. So I did not push it anymore and that activity should it still be alive will not be for the benefit of anyone here.

To be more clear, should the studios want to do something (and I am not saying they are or aren't), there has to be potential for increased revenue, or monetizing a window that is not making money right now. I hope no one thinks they will simply start stamping out 4K content and charge what they have been doing with BD. That is a zero sum game. Heck, it is worse than that since the production cost and replication will likely be higher so it will make no economic sense. A market of millions of dollars in *incremental* revenue needs to be shown to exist.

I am happy to probe again to see if there is any receptivity to the idea of a release package for enthusiasts. To get there, we need to quantify the market size and willingness of people to sign up. How much of a premium will you pay? Do you care if the content is in the same window as BD or do you need it to be earlier? Rental is good enough? How about content protection? As I said, likely HDMI is not sufficient. Will people buy DCI servers?

Sony owns a few studios themselves with several blockbuster titles under their belt. They can get the ball rolling with 4k as they did with Bluray.

They didn't get the ball rolling that way with Blu-ray. By the time the format launched they had a number of studios on their side. Sony's market share is about 14%. So what they do will not make a market.

But really, that is beside the point. As I mentioned, the key thing is that no studio exec wants to take such risks alone. If three studios do something and it doesn't work, you may not lose your job. Otherwise you may be shown the door. I have taken countless proposals to studios and without exception they ask for other studios to partner with them or they won't do it.

Even with Howard Stringer out, the studio is very independent in its decision making. They are not going to risk their profitability to serve a hardware division that is losing money.

Of course, folks could make exceptional decisions and do otherwise. But if you want to base your thinking on how the town works, the above is it .

It seems to me that two things must be true before it is worth Sony (and others) developing|selling BD4k2k players and authoring movies on BD4k2k 'discs':

1. There must be an installed consumer base (or projected installed base) of 1440|1600|2160 line 'home entertainment' displays on which it is at least theoretically possible that native BD4k2k content might appear superior to upconverted [1080] BD content.
2. There must be a subset of owners who believe that they will|do actually see that superior picture and are willing to pay the (extra) cost for a BD4k2k player and native BD4k2k content.

Absent serious market numbers suggesting 'how many' and 'when' these potential consumers might appear . . . and a business model that delivers a net profit to the CEMs and content providers who choose to be involved, I'm afraid we'll just have to wait a while longer!

Of course, it would also be possible to 'sweeten the deal' for consumers (even those who retain only 1080 displays) by expanding the max audio capacity of BD4k2k content, e.g., from 8 to16 lossless channels!
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Edited by SoundChex - 8/27/12 at 5:49pm

I believe we will see it at premium cost in the next year or two and premium isn't crap like one has to be making millions to afford it.

Art

I just don't get the "this time it is different logic". Come on guys. How many times have we been here? How many times the result was "different"?

I am not arguing about benefits or perceived benefits. But this is happening.

I posted this in the $3000+ projector forum. Repost here for those that doesn't frequent that section much.

There is a premium market for everything. 1st class plane tickets, name brand food vs generic, upscale restaurants, clothing, electronics, water... I don't see why there wouldn't be a market for better quality movies. Hollywood just hasn't found the right balance yet. They need a 1st class offering, not buy the entire plane and a flight crew to go with it. Something doctors, lawyers, engineers, business owners, upper management, etc can afford.. Regular people with extra money to spend, but not money to burn.

Will people buy DCI servers? Not for $30k and $500/movie. DTheater and Laserdisc were about 1/15th of that and represented the premium content for their time, especially laser disc. I certainly think there is still a market for premium content delivered on what most people would consider an "expensive" player with expensive media.

What would a good LD player or a working DTheater player cost today? Same release window as BD. Rental preferred, but in exchange for lower media costs. Don't mind streaming as long as it's spooled locally for playback (no glitches, drop outs, or pauses) and in all ways better than Bluray. Don't care about content protection either... phone home, 2 factor identify... just as long as the wife can use it without hassle. Other desirables for a premium box:

• Hardware set 1 time (by installer) with preferences. Software queries the hardware to see what options to select, and only prompts the user for interaction as last resort.
• No menus, just play the movie in the best quality possible (based on preferences). Not only is that convenient, but it eliminates spoilers forcing audience to watch clips of the movie they are about to watch (for the first time) while navigating the menu.
• Have it do whatever maintenance crap it needs to do while I'm at work. Nothing worse than working all day, or having friends over, then being told I need to sit through a 1 hour firmware update before I can watch the movie.
• Please no Java either. Get someone that understands how computers work to code the software for your box.

Not asking for much are you

I doubt REDRAY is going to happen for consumer "4k" media. It's H.265 or nothing because the manufactures (many own or partially own studios too) want skin in the game (royalty money) and with the MPEG, they do. If RED had any say in the development of the H.265 lossy codec, I have no clue.

It sure isn't about the ultimate quality in consumers' hands... never has been.

Sony’s Marty, BDA’s Parsons Talk Blu-ray

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu-ray-disc/sony-s-marty-bda-s-parsons-talk-blu-ray-27515

HBO Exec Disses 4K's Chances

http://www.tvpredictions.com/4k090412.htm

Build it and they will come.

Art

Sure - in drips and drabs. Or maybe not. Remember Toshiba's recent 4K Autostereoscopic TV they were selling in Japan? So how did that work out? I think last I heard, they sold 500 of them.

Did you know that those 21:9 HDTVs aren't selling well at all? Phillips has halted all of their production.

How many 4K projectors has Sony sold since they introduced it to consumers?
Edited by Lee Stewart - 9/12/12 at 6:46am

There is no large scale consumer demand for 4k. Satellite TV broadcasts and terrestrial broadcasts do not even deliver true 2k. This is a fringe subject of interest that will not make the electronics companies money. What they need is more efficient manufacture of 2k products. It is like trying to sell the public a razor with eight blade edges. We already have 3 or even 4 blades. Do we really need eight? People are worried about eating and saving their families, not 4k.

Not to extrapolate too much but folks will spend on things they want over things they need quite frequently. Anyway, I still believe that we will see 4K BD in the next 18 months.

Art
Edited by Art Sonneborn - 9/14/12 at 7:02am

I agree and it will be Sony that starts the trend.

18 months is doable IMO. But some actually believe 4K BD will be launched at CES 2013 - 4 months from now.

If you had paid some attention to the information you refer to, it said 4K BD prototype player would be introduced at CES 2013 (we can just guess they also will have some test disc material) for autumn 2013 launch to the market, then you would have misrepresented the info.

Edited by coolscan - 9/14/12 at 3:27pm

But you said that info was nothing more than a rumor right?

What's the source of that rumor?

Post #69

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?85349-Resolution-IBC-and-4K&p=1063878&viewfull=1#post1063878

Yes.......just like your adamant arguments against this and personal predictions to the contrary, and all other posts here about 4K BD before such format is officially released.

More on 4K delivery and displays;

Pricepoint for 4K TV's; 55" Toshiba Glass-Free 3D TV (crap 3D but OK 4K 2D) in stock in UK shop for £6999.
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Edited by coolscan - 9/15/12 at 5:03am

I've been asking myself that same question as I watch outstanding 2D on my SIM2 Lumis Host !

I think bringing out 3D so soon on the heels of the HDDVD / Blu Ray war, led many folks to move away from buying anything. Upgrade fatigue was the result. Now you think they'll bring out 4K? I'm not holding my breath. I've stopped holding my breath for a bright LED projector - things only move incrementally and very slowly in this industry from what I've seen over the last 17 years.

even so many movies shot at 4K/5K they dont finish at 4K..Check reduser and go ask Post House owner (lightiron) M.Cioni who did TSN, Pirates of... Girl With Dragon.. they always finish DI at 2K

Not always but mostly. Dragon was 4K DI, by the way.

yeah sorry for that i check his page and he says DI finished at 5K.
http://michaelcioni.tumblr.com/page/5