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Sony 4K and the rest - Page 4

post #91 of 265
2/17/12 at 10:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

I just looked and the only person who tried to put up an argument was you and you didn't get anywhere and everyone moved on.

That was the Industry Insiders Q&A thread and I found four other people which were darinp2, dr1394 (here is the last post in that thread where he used the word "filter"), paidgeek, and Talkstr8t. Since I can see that we are only going over old ground you can have the last word.


Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

Your scars from the format war run deep Richard to jump back in and want to continue a fight that no one cares to fight anymore. Defending BD is one thing but going to your grave fighting over it makes no sense.

I consider the choice of video codecs used on Blu-ray titles to be a separate issue than the Blu-ray/HD DVD format war.
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post #92 of 265
2/18/12 at 7:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

Man, we both look half drugged. Didn't realize anyone had recorded it.

It was *great* fun. That was our first ever event of that type. If you recall, it was such a hot day. I think it hit 105 degrees or so. We had no idea what to expect. Whether one person would show up or more. I think we had 40 people come! Shows how much passion we all had in getting good video into our homes.

It was great getting permission to show unreleased content at every event. I think we did 10 to 12 of them.

Funny story. We did one at Vancouver, Canada which is just three hours north of us so Kevin and I drove up in our cars separately. He usually gets there before me to set things up.

I get to the border crossing and boy, was I in for a surprise. Usually the Canadian folks are very friendly. Not that day. I was asked what I was doing there. I said I am visiting customers. He asked who I worked for. I said Microsoft. He asked and I am honest, "you have customers in Canada?" I said, "yes, Microsoft has customers all over the world." He gets annoyed and throws the passport in my face and says, "go."

I drive up to the house of the person who was hosting the event and there is still no sign of Kevin. I call and he is not answering his cell. So I keep calling. Eventually he answers with the softest "hello?" as if he is whispering. I ask, "where are you?" He says "I am at border crossing" and bam, hangs up! I call again, no answer.

An hour goes by and still no sign of Kevin. Half hour later he finally shows up. I asked what the heck happened to him? He said he was detained at the border crossing by the Canadian agents! I asked him why? He said they asked him what he was doing and he told them he was meeting AVS Fourm people about HD DVD! Predictably, they had no idea what he was saying and proceeded to grill him on the ins and outs of forum, HD DVD, etc. They then drag him to the building where he is supposed to wait to talk to an agent. My call came in while he was waiting and apparently you are not supposed to use cell phones. They catch him answering my call and now he is even in more hot water!

Strange thing is that the Canadian side was always the more pleasant compared to returning to US and dealing with US agents. This time, it was completely the other way around with the US agent giving me the biggest smile and warmest welcome back!


Ya, I thought I would take my first HD camcorder along (Sony HC3) and only got about 50 seconds of footage. Didn't really want to have a cam sticking in everyone's face during the event. At least we have you and Kevin on tape being part of the evolution of home video. Those were exciting, fun times no doubt. The bland touched on this a bit in his last post.

That is a crazy story about crossing the border. You sure the BD crew wasn't involved?

So Amir, on 4k displays, do you think you will ever get one?
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post #93 of 265
2/20/12 at 2:01pm
Snipped from your article:
"The last big increase in profitability of content owners came from consumers buying DVDs versus renting the format before it, the VHS tape. Conclusion was then reached that people had become movie collectors and wanted a library of their favorites at home. We now know that was not the case. The customer was buying movies not because he wanted to collect but because it was a better form of renting! Real renting required a second trip to return the disc on time or face late chargers at the local video store. Additionally one could purchase a DVD at many more locations (think mass merchandisers) and not incur any extra trips just to get access to the movie."

This is confusing to me? Why would people pay 15-20 dollars to buy a disk they could rent for 2-3, regardless of the convenience factor?

As far as BD sales go, we have been in an economic slowdown the past 4 years. May that have some impact, as well?

No doubt, the Netflix model has taken its toll, but there is still demand for quality.

Art
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post #94 of 265
2/20/12 at 2:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by adpayne View Post

This is confusing to me? Why would people pay 15-20 dollars to buy a disk they could rent for 2-3, regardless of the convenience factor?

What do you mean regardless of convenience factor? Consumers pay for convenience all the time. You are at Wal-Mart (#1 retailer in US), you see the new releases on sale at below WMT's cost (hook to get you into the store), and you buy that while you are buying the pots, T-shirt or whatever else you are buying there. A rental would have required a dedicated trip to Blockbuster at the time. And importantly an on-time return. I think the estimates were that before Netflix came around. Blockbuster was averaging something like $3.50 in late charges on top of each rental. So the average cost wasn't $3 but $5.50. And that doesn't include the cost of gas, etc.

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As far as BD sales go, we have been in an economic slowdown the past 4 years. May that have some impact, as well?

That was the original hypothesis but has been proven to be false. The buy pattern simply is not that of DVD. The catalog simply doesn't sell.

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No doubt, the Netflix model has taken its toll, but there is still demand for quality.

Art

There is. Let's hope there is enough of us to matter . Right now, people assume there is none when it comes to online distribution.
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post #95 of 265
2/21/12 at 12:33am
4K looks like ,"deep color," a ploy to sell more displays. I believe the same type of argument was used in that the ,"material," already existed only needing titles with deep color to be produced. I don't think a single Blu-ray with deep color has ever been released?
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post #96 of 265
2/21/12 at 1:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulldogger View Post

4K looks like ,"deep color," a ploy to sell more displays. I believe the same type of argument was used in that the ,"material," already existed only needing titles with deep color to be produced. I don't think a single Blu-ray with deep color has ever been released?

Great analogy. And deep color is not supported in BD spec so nothing can use it.
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post #97 of 265
2/21/12 at 3:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulldogger View Post

4K looks like ,"deep color," a ploy to sell more displays. I believe the same type of argument was used in that the ,"material," already existed only needing titles with deep color to be produced. I don't think a single Blu-ray with deep color has ever been released?

I can't agree. 4K will become popular and content will become available over time. It will be just a matter of time when more displays are on the market and the user base is increased. Deep color was never really marketed or would ever be hyped up to this level. 4k will be the next 1080p of video manufacturers.
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post #98 of 265
2/21/12 at 4:22am
4k is a joke for the average consumer. Most people are really satisfied with upscaled DVD's on their 42 inch dynamic mode light clown colored TV's. Disc based media has had its heyday, and it is clear that BR disc will never enjoy the same success as DVD did. 1080p only becomes visually noticeable at like 50 inch TV or above. Why would anyone need 4k? Clearly 4K may be forced upon the average consumer like all these other marketing tricks to get people to think they should spend more when it is time to get a new TV by buying into these basically useless features.

I understand that 4K could be appealing to us on this forum IF you have a huge screen and sit close. I personally enjoy 1080p, and will never switch to 2k or 4k, but instead use my money to buy more good movies to enjoy once BR disc is old news and selling cheaply.
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post #99 of 265
2/21/12 at 4:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garry3211 View Post

Most hollywood movies from the last 3 years have been recorded at 4K, the content is ready, and they would love to sell us again the same movie on a new format, so we will see different companies pushing for 4K.

I think you would be surprised how few movies are actually finished in 4K. Some Movies shot on film that have budget for it are scanned at 4K, or preferably higher (6K, 8K) to be able to give good quality 4K release. But very few of them are edited and released in 4K.

Only RED has had 4K digital cameras until now recently when Sony's F65 is released, but that will take a year or two before movies shot on F65 are released.

The majority of digital shot movies are still shot on 2K cameras.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is the first digital shot movie (shot on Red) that has had a 4K worklflow from start to finished.
4K DI on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

More 4k movies comes later this year.

These are the movies that Sony has released in 4K for cinemas, not too many;http://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/mkt-dig...les.shtml#2012



Is there anybody that has any comment on the new algorithms The faster-than-fast Fourier transform and whether this will have any impact on future media delivery?
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post #100 of 265
2/21/12 at 6:19am
I believe 4K content will become available also. It will be offered as a premium priced product. Maybe to sell more displays maybe to sell more players ,who cares ?


Art
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post #101 of 265
2/21/12 at 6:31am
I like the idea of 4K (considering my own large screen size) but it is hard to imagine a market for content... unless it is streamed in some efficient manner. But the idea of 4K Blu Ray discs seems difficult to accept given the ultra-niche status of such software and little consumer awareness of 4K (let alone the BluRay)... especially as most folks who would buy would want all new releases in 4K rather than a few titles per month from few studios as things get ramped up. Personally, I'd like to have it!
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post #102 of 265
2/21/12 at 7:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by adidino View Post

I can't agree. 4K will become popular and content will become available over time. It will be just a matter of time when more displays are on the market and the user base is increased. Deep color was never really marketed or would ever be hyped up to this level. 4k will be the next 1080p of video manufacturers.

Displays will do as you say. Manufacturers know they can sell consumers on a dream as opposed to reality with 4K. The temptation to believe 4K is 4X higher resolution with 1080p content is just too strong. If one has to struggle to get the members here to believe that is not reality, what hope is there for consumers? So yes, you are right, the hardware industry will go there.

But content has no necessary condition to follow. Every consumer DAC today supports 24-bit up to 96 Khz if not higher. How come music didn't go that way and instead is standardized for distribution at 256 kbps compressed? So the notion that content follows hardware is not a given.
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post #103 of 265
2/21/12 at 8:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

Displays will do as you say. Manufacturers know they can sell consumers on a dream as opposed to reality with 4K. The temptation to believe 4K is 4X higher resolution with 1080p content is just too strong. If one has to struggle to get the members here to believe that is not reality, what hope is there for consumers? So yes, you are right, the hardware industry will go there.

But content has no necessary condition to follow. Every consumer DAC today supports 24-bit up to 96 Khz if not higher. How come music didn't go that way and instead is standardized for distribution at 256 kbps compressed? So the notion that content follows hardware is not a given.

I recall similar arguments on this forum when 1080p was first announced and the first 1080p projector was released. This is just progress and good marketing.

There were hundreds of studies proving that 1080p has no advantage on displays below 50inch. However, you couldn't sell a 720p/1080i TV at half the price of 1080p TV today. Consumers want the latest and greatest. I agree, 4K will take a while to catch on but it will.

Sony will make sure content is released, everyone will update their 1080 BD to BD 4k, just like we did with DVD's and around we go... 8K, 16K...
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post #104 of 265
2/21/12 at 8:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by adidino View Post

I recall similar arguments on this forum when 1080p was first announced and the first 1080p projector was released. This is just progress and good marketing. There were hundreds of studies proving that 1080p has no advantage on displays below 50inch.

For mass market, that is proven to be the case! My wife will buy nothing but DVDs. She will absolutely not pay a premium for BD. For the mass market then, we have not shown any advantage for 1080p let alone anything higher.

If I surveyed 100 consumers on what they want different for their home video, where do you think higher resolution would rank?

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However, you couldn't sell a 720p/1080i TV at half the price of 1080p TV today. Consumers want the latest and greatest. I agree, 4K will take a while to catch on but it will.

Again, you are speaking to hardware industry. That is a given. They have announced plans and are shipping products. You have to show that studios have announced and plan to support and that consumer demand is there in addition to infrastructure. Do you believe folks want to try to produce 100 Gbyte BD discs? Or get the Internet right now to deliver 4K?

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Sony will make sure content is released, everyone will update their 1080 BD to BD 4k, just like we did with DVD's and around we go... 8K, 16K...

I addressed this before as a fallacy of how that company works. Please see my previous post. The studio has to look out for its interest and that of the talent that produces movies. If it does not, then the other studios will get the next spiderman. This is why they can't afford to work vertically integrated. Each business has stiff competition.

By your notion, they should give you 10 free movies so that you buy their TV rather than Samsung. That would be good for their TV business. Right? Why doesn't the studio do that? Simply because they would lose sales of those 10 movies and the hardware group hasn't shown profit for years. So once in a while they throw a B movie in the box to make something happen. And nothing has happened so don't look to them to keep doing anything major.

Will they throw a 4K release here and there to make the electronics group happy? Maybe. Is it a mainstream strategy for them? Nope. And keep in mind with Howard Stringer stepping down, the studio may get sold. It has never provided any synergy for Sony and might have more value as an asset than part of a strategy.
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post #105 of 265
2/21/12 at 9:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

For mass market, that is proven to be the case! My wife will buy nothing but DVDs. She will absolutely not pay a premium for BD. For the mass market then, we have not shown any advantage for 1080p let alone anything higher.

If I surveyed 100 consumers on what they want different for their home video, where do you think higher resolution would rank?

You would be hard pressed to find a TV that is not 1080p on the shelf. Regardless if the consumer needs 1080p or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

By your notion, they should give you 10 free movies so that you buy their TV rather than Samsung. That would be good for their TV business. Right? Why doesn't the studio do that? Simply because they would lose sales of those 10 movies and the hardware group hasn't shown profit for years. So once in a while they throw a B movie in the box to make something happen. And nothing has happened so don't look to them to keep doing anything major.

Yet 99% of every new movie today is released on DVD and BD by every major studio in the world. Meanwhile, the install base for DVD far exceeds BD but the movies keep coming. Studio's continue to distribute BD titles even though only 22% of people that purchase a movie will buy the BD format. (excluding your wife of course).
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post #106 of 265
2/21/12 at 10:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by adidino View Post

You would be hard pressed to find a TV that is not 1080p on the shelf. Regardless if the consumer needs 1080p or not.

That wasn't the question I asked . I asked if I survey 100 consumers what should be different, what would be the percentage of them asking for higher than BD resolution? I think we both know the answer will be zero or negligible. How often would someone chase a business that has that kind of receptivity?

Did you know DVD came about because such a research was done and it pointed to high approval rating for consumers? Imagine telling them they don't have to rewind the tape, they will get surround sound, menus to choose chapters, etc? This is part of the problem btw. Warren and Toshiba made DVD *too* good .

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Yet 99% of every new movie today is released on DVD and BD by every major studio in the world.

And as I explained in the article, the dynamics of the past do not determine the dynamics of the future as you see it. If you want to look at the history, you have to look at all of it.

BTW, another factor here: BDA has little power to influence the future of home video. What Apple wants to do counts 100X more than what BDA will want to do. In the amount of time it takes for BDA to have one meeting, Apple will release a new product with new business model and sell tens of millions of them.

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Meanwhile, the install base for DVD far exceeds BD but the movies keep coming. Studio's continue to distribute BD titles even though only 22% of people that purchase a movie will buy the BD format. (excluding your wife of course).

Sure. There is no one here saying BD is dying. That is not the topic of this discussion. The topic is whether there is pressure to make it better. We agree consumers don't want anything better. And no one has explained why the studios would want it either when they already have that product. It is called BD!

As I have noted, the only market I see for such a product is for simultaneous release with theatrical at very high prices. Nothing you and I could easily afford .
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post #107 of 265
2/21/12 at 10:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by adidino View Post

You would be hard pressed to find a TV that is not 1080p on the shelf. Regardless if the consumer needs 1080p or not. ...

I don't know about that.

I'm amazed at how many 720p/1080i sets are on display and going out the door at my local big box membership store; big name brands too. I would say most of these are 42" and under, but they are undeniably there along with a few 50" 720p/1080i sets as well.

Last month, a friend was talked into buying a 720p/1080i 50" at Best Buy of all places. The salesman told him he would maybe see a small difference on Blu-ray and no difference on broadcast TV. He said the salesman went on to say the small difference he might see in blu-ray would be mitigated by his seating distance and he should buy the 720p/1080i set and save the price difference.
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post #108 of 265
2/21/12 at 10:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by b curry View Post

Last month, a friend was talked into buying a 720p/1080i 50" at Best Buy of all places. The salesman told him he would maybe see a small difference on Blu-ray and no difference on broadcast TV. He said the salesman went on to say the small difference he might see in blu-ray would be mitigated by his seating distance and he should buy the 720p/1080i set and save the price difference.

I would bet that salesmen was unloading old inventory. See what that same salesmen would say if they didn't have 720p TV's in stock. It would be a different conversation.
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post #109 of 265
2/21/12 at 11:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

That wasn't the question I asked . I asked if I survey 100 consumers what should be different, what would be the percentage of them asking for higher than BD resolution? I think we both know the answer will be zero or negligible. How often would someone chase a business that has that kind of receptivity?

Did you know DVD came about because such a research was done and it pointed to high approval rating for consumers? Imagine telling them they don't have to rewind the tape, they will get surround sound, menus to choose chapters, etc? This is part of the problem btw. Warren and Toshiba made DVD *too* good .


And as I explained in the article, the dynamics of the past do not determine the dynamics of the future as you see it. If you want to look at the history, you have to look at all of it.

BTW, another factor here: BDA has little power to influence the future of home video. What Apple wants to do counts 100X more than what BDA will want to do. In the amount of time it takes for BDA to have one meeting, Apple will release a new product with new business model and sell tens of millions of them.


Sure. There is no one here saying BD is dying. That is not the topic of this discussion. The topic is whether there is pressure to make it better. We agree consumers don't want anything better. And no one has explained why the studios would want it either when they already have that product. It is called BD!

As I have noted, the only market I see for such a product is for simultaneous release with theatrical at very high prices. Nothing you and I could easily afford .

I guess we'll sit back and watch how this all unfolds in due time.

I'm hedging my bets that Sony will push 4k BD over the next few years.
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post #110 of 265
2/21/12 at 11:13am
by 2020 won't we have wall size screens and need lots of pixels or even no pixels?
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post #111 of 265
2/21/12 at 11:24am
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Originally Posted by samalmoe View Post

by 2020 won't we have wall size screens and need lots of pixels or even no pixels?

Where in the heck did you hear that ? The date I heard was September 2019.
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post #112 of 265
2/21/12 at 11:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by samalmoe View Post

by 2020 won't we have wall size screens and need lots of pixels or even no pixels?

No. I would be happy with a PJ that has a super low black floor, high light output LED lamp, great motion, minimal lag time, close to perfect calibrated picture out of the box, is quiet, reliable, sharp picture with high ansi contrast and perfect 3D.....all for 1500 bucks.
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post #113 of 265
2/21/12 at 11:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by samalmoe View Post

by 2020 won't we have wall size screens and need lots of pixels or even no pixels?

If I may paraphrase the opposing argument: Because it isn't a standard consumer viewing habit to watch only the lower-right corner of a film, no. People tend to want to see the entire image at once, which means that as huge screens get even huger, we tend to naturally sit further back so that it fills our field of vision, essentially removing the need for higher resolutions beyond a certain value (and the opposing argument is that 1080P is that value).

And I agree that, regardless of whether 4K is a perceptible improvement, on the consumer-content side, people may experiment with 4K but it will never go anywhere. On the display end, however, I think 4K is inevitable. Manufacturing processes for TVs are re-used for computer monitors and cell phones. 4K is definitely a meaningful difference for monitors, so I believe TVs will get dragged along to 4K regardless of necessity, much as monitors got dragged along to 16:9 regardless of necessity. Add to that the fact that it looks good in a showroom when you can have really unrealistic viewing distances (i.e. the smoothness of upscaled 4K vs aliased 1080P), and it's a given. I honestly don't know enough to say if it's needed or not, but it's coming.
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post #114 of 265
2/21/12 at 12:21pm
my always unreliable polycarbonate ball tells me by 2020 projectors will be old news and will be replaced with large screens with looking thru a window resolution... the future lies ahead..you can take that to the online bank...
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post #115 of 265
2/21/12 at 12:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by adidino View Post

I would bet that salesmen was unloading old inventory. See what that same salesmen would say if they didn't have 720p TV's in stock. It would be a different conversation.

Possibly, however in this case it was a current production Samsung.

To your point, 720p/1080i sets are on store shelfs, not difficult to find, and are still being produced.

I agree Sony will push 4K. I just question its acceptance and its ability to generate sales.

Does 4K really make such an impact on screen sizes less than 60", keeping in mind a 50" screen is a big screen for most homes? I live in a reasonably affluent area and projector based home theaters are still not all that common in homes.

I'm all for 4K but it seems like hardware is the easy part.
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post #116 of 265
2/21/12 at 12:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by CatBus View Post

... People tend to want to see the entire image at once, which means that as huge screens get even huger, we tend to naturally sit further back so that it fills our field of vision, essentially removing the need for higher resolutions beyond a certain value (and the opposing argument is that 1080P is that value). ...

Interensting point.

I do notice on the rare occasion when we go to the local Cineplex or Imax, the mid to back of the theater does seem to fill up first.
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post #117 of 265
2/21/12 at 10:38pm
Personally, my belief is that gaming will lead the path to 4K content, not movies.
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post #118 of 265
2/22/12 at 8:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

That wasn't the question I asked . I asked if I survey 100 consumers what should be different, what would be the percentage of them asking for higher than BD resolution? I think we both know the answer will be zero or negligible. How often would someone chase a business that has that kind of receptivity?

Except that in electronics at least (but certainly other industries as well) build it and they will come has worked exceedingly well. It's all around us. I don't need it or ask for it but when I see it I want it.

I wonder how many consumers surveyed in 1997-8 would have said they were asking for higher than DVD resolution. I'm guessing it would be zero or negligable.

Art
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post #119 of 265
2/22/12 at 8:19am
stereo..4 channel..5 channel...omg 7 channel! i know i was pretty happy with stereo...at the time
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post #120 of 265
2/22/12 at 9:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm View Post

If I surveyed 100 consumers on what they want different for their home video, where do you think higher resolution would rank?

You could create a survey/poll on this forum for us consumers to fill in/vote
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