When do you think they will launch a 4K optical (or other physical) consumer format?

If the adoption rate in the US for HDTV and Blu-ray is used as an indicator then I would say it will be beyond 2020. HDTV over SD has been a hard sell, SHDTV will be that much harder.

Even while (home) video broadcast|cable|IPTV|satellite distribution remains effectively limited to 1080p, it seems to me that once the home player-AVR-display chain is capable of native 4K2K reproduction "at near current AV hardware prices" (which seems likely to happen no later than 2013|2014), there will be an incentive to shoot for TV (in 4K2K or better) with the intent to improve 'after broadcast' disk sales through the promise that "these (4K2K) disks can deliver better quality than the original 1080 over-the-air|cable first run of the show". As the manufacturing cost of 4K2K disks should be comparable to that of (current 1080) BD, and sales would probably be higher, this seems like a sure thing...?!

And if we try to guess what might be 'state of the art' home AV technology Post-2020...?!

From the NHK Annual Report 2010...

Quote:

5.2.2 Optical storage technology

We are advancing with our research on thin optical disks and holographic recording technology for future program archives and Super Hi-Vision （SHV） recording equipment．

■Thin optical disks

Thin optical disks with thickness of 0.1 mm are promising candidates for program archives and home SHV recording equipment because they can rotate at higher speeds, thereby giving them higher data transfer-rates. In FY2010, we developed a high-capacity drive system using thin optical disk drives. In parallel with this development, we proceeded with the development of near-field optical recording technology for increasing the recording density of thin optical disks.

Figure 1. Prototype compact thin optical disk drive

[So we might need to replace those optical media players 'just one more time'...?! ]

High Efficiency Video Coding


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Ef...y_Video_Coding

They had an 8k television at CES. Why would I be happy with just 4k?

If you have 20/20 vision and watch native 8K4K (7680x4320) resolution source material on a 100" (or smaller) 8K4K resolution display from a distance of 6' (or further), it is visually indistinguishable from the same source material down-sampled and shown on a same-size 4K2K (3840x2160) resolution display. So only those homes with significantly larger than 100" displays would likely be adversely affected by limiting the native resolution of HOME ENTERTAINMENT disks and|or displays to 4K2K.

Technology for the home is limited not only by pure science but by public demand: How much will they spend and how much do they care. "If a man...can make better chairs or knives, crucibles or church organs, than anybody else, you will find a broad hard-beaten road to his house." --Ralph Waldo Emerson. Build a better TV or projector, a better player, a better broadcast system, and price all of it so it's easily affordable to everyone, and it will sell.

Right now, though, even high definition is a hard sell for some people because it means shelling out too much money. HD will (has) become a default among TV's only because that's almost the only thing you can buy anymore except for the tiniest of home screens. 3-D fell on its face because people don't want to spend an arm and a leg for new equipment they don't perceive as worth it. So, simply launching a 4K system is one thing; selling it is another. Give the current technology another five-to-ten years, and we'll talk about it.

John

HDD Attends a Virtual Roundtable with Andy Parsons (BDA) and Lori MacPherson (Disney)


http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/news/list/4

"...it's clear that the interest level is high for its use in home theater applications, so we are keeping a close eye on the developments in the CE market. In the meantime, I think 4K displays will do an excellent job of making HD (2K) Blu-ray titles look even better via upconversion."

Yes, interest is high among manufacturers, who fear that most consumers have already bought an HD television and need to find something new to sell them. Interest among consumers? Probably nil at the moment. It's still all about public demand; the public have to want it and be willing to pay for it. Right now, that will be a hard sell. As I say, give it a few years; the economy picks up, people are tired of ordinary HD, they want something new. The manufacturers have it ready.

John

I have to agree. Interest among consumers is practically nonexistant at the moment. The average consumer with a 40" HDTV is unlikely to find their current setup in any way lacking.

Extract from "Dr Hiroshi Shimamoto, NHK, discusses Super Hi-Vision prior to ImageSensors2012"...

Quote:

Q: Your presentation will cover image sensor specifications for the new Super Hi-Vision - can you tell us more about the Super Hi-Vision project / programme?

A: Super Hi-Vision (SHV) is a future broadcast system that will give viewers a great sensation of reality. SHV consists of an extremely high-resolution (16 times of HDTV) imagery system and 22.2 channel super surround multi-channel sound system. We are now proposing to extend its frame frequency from 60 Hz to 120 Hz to improve the motion picture quality, and to have a wide-gamut colorimetry for better color reproduction. We call this new SHV system "full-spec SHV".

Just when you thought it was ok to stop adding more 'safety capacity' to the estimate of your home theater's planned bandwidth for the 2020's!

But Harrods (London) apparently thinks there is already a small (but wealthy!) market for 4K2K displays: "The 152-inch Panasonic TH-152UX1W is the world's largest commercially available flat-screenis typically used in airports and theme parks" but it's also (supposedly) available "at retail" from Harrods for $958,000 (£600,000).



With a recommended 2D viewing distance of around 9', this seems like the ideal end-of-the-bed accessory!

Edited by SoundChex - 6/6/12 at 10:09am

we've all seen this chart before..

http://s3.carltonbale.com/resolution_chart.html

Sitting 10 feet from an 80 inch screen you might notice a difference.... assuming it's a live broadcast or show filmed with a digital camera that lacks grain. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it, but I'd love to see 1080p done without compression artifacts first, before starting to worry about 4k..... to see them actually ditch the analog cable channels and digital in SD and actually fully embrace HD and leave the old grannies in the dust.... the list goes on... It will cost a lot of money to upgrade tv stations for another, even more high resolution format... I just don't see the demand for a very long time... with the exception of multimillionaires who live in another reality from the average joe anyways....

2020 at the earliest. Since the world ends this year, no need to worry about 4k.

Lmfao...yeah, a proverbial "laundry list" of conditions that do not exist within 99.99% of the populace and/or viewing scenarios.

Good one.

James

Consequent to the somewhat hyped already current perception of added value to high density displays on handhelds, plus some likely real benefits to medical|industrial tasks, I suspect your time frame may be overly conservative (viz):

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoundChex

In "Intel: super-dense notebook, desktop displays common by 2013" (link), an electronista.com article (updated April 12, 2012) reporting on Intel's Developer Forum in Beijing, we see:

Quote:

"These would include 11-inch ultrabooks at 2560x1440 through to 21-inch desktops with 3840x2160 screens. Intel also expected "halo" 15-inch notebooks with the same 3840x2160 output, which would create a Retina Display-like effect."

If we really do get 21" to 32" PC monitors with 3840x2160 resolution at mass market prices 'starting by 2013', then 21" to 60" TVs with the same resolution (and perhaps some cheaper 2560x1440 resolution models) would probably be the "everyman" price point staple for Big Box stores only a year or two later . . . likely resulting in an 'effectively complete' evolution of the US home TV installed base to the 3840x2160 resolution standard by about 2025--and uncoupled from the actual progress towards 4K2K broadcast OTA|cable, IP streaming, or BD4K adoption.

So it seems possible that, while there remains uncertainty as to when 4K2K source material might be 'widely available', there will likely be a substantial base of 4K2K displays already in-place if-and-when 4K2K source material finally does become common.