Originally Posted by Sammy2
TW's DVR "solution" is not the way to go. It will just increase pirated content.
It might not go quite that far, but could lead to defection to other services. I pretty sure no one except TW thinks this is a good idea.
I'm not sure where you got those prices (amazon streaming?)
At the current averag price of around $2-$3 an episode individually to stream newer shows, you're looking at around $35-$40 a season, assuming there is a season discount price in effect. That equals about $10 a month, which is roughly $40 a season at an average of 16-18 episodes running roughly 4 months.
Why is streaming over the internet the only solution? It comes to me on the same Cable as TV does? I can VOD over that same cable.
Except a lot of VOD essentially is streaming now. A lot of it is IP based.
Even with cable/sat VOD, you're still essentially streaming. The difference is how much it buffers to the DVR before you can start watching it.
What I'm saying is that if I paid per series it would be less than I'm paying now... even $10/mo per series is the same as there's only about six shows I watch regularly anyhow. Most of the showswe watch are premium networks that don't have commercials. We don't have premium channels so we wait a few months and watch them on BRD via Netflix.
See my numbers above.
It costs at least a $1-$2 million per episode to produce a drama. Multiply that times roughly 4 episodes a month. That's potentially $8 million dollars a month just for the show costs, not including promotion, bandwidth, etc. That might be fine if you got OTA network numbers of viewers online, but it doesn't work that way right now. At this point, every step away from a broadcast network frops the audience by half or more. For example:
Show on OTA: 8 million viewers
Same show on cable: 3-4 million viewers
Same show streaming: around 1-2 million viewers
You might be seeing the problem...if you can get 2 million people to pay $10 a month for an individual show, you really don't make any money after show and distribution expenses (mainly bandwidth).
Now, you can say the networks should make the shows cheaper, but if you take a show like Mad Men and the hoopla over cutting costs at AMC, it's plain to see that some shows are already running tight margains. I'm not sure Mad Men would be the same show without all that expensive atmosphere.
The thing is, at $10 a month, if you watch 6 shows, that's $60 a month in your model. If I stuck to a basic tier with HD, I could get pretty close to that with monthly cable service. At that point, I may as well stick with linear TV and save my monthly cap for other things.