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Sony, Panasonic and Sharp TV divisions melting down in summer 2012 heat - Page 3

post #61 of 149
I remember there being a review at the end of last year concerning what type of flat screen TVs were being sold. It was reported that by far, buyers were buying the largest size at the cheapest price they could find.

This means that given a choice between a $1500 PanaSamsung 60" plasma or a $899 60" ChinesePOS, they invariably went with the cheapest.

I think this means that Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, Samsung et al cannot successfully sell at the high end where there are more profits. Just the low end where the profit, if any, is too small to show up on the balance sheet.
post #62 of 149
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by weedeater View Post

I remember there being a review at the end of last year concerning what type of flat screen TVs were being sold. It was reported that by far, buyers were buying the largest size at the cheapest price they could find.
This means that given a choice between a $1500 PanaSamsung 60" plasma or a $899 60" ChinesePOS, they invariably went with the cheapest.
I think this means that Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, Samsung et al cannot successfully sell at the high end where there are more profits. Just the low end where the profit, if any, is too small to show up on the balance sheet.

I have no idea where that study is from, but that's simply not what seems to be happening. Yes, big and cheap sells. But the feature-free, lowish quality giant sets that were already 60" and well below $1000 last year (some from major brand names like Sharp and Panasonic) have not come to dominate the market at all.
post #63 of 149
Not that many people buy off brand televisions. People want to buy into a brand because they want to be a part of the image associated with it and part of the group that buys it. It's emotional insurance too; Samsung may be the most unreliable "brand" of flat panel television but people won't react the same way to a cheap Samsung failing or otherwise turning out to be a dud versus buying a cheap Chinese TV and having that go bad because everybody else is buying into The Brand too. The bad experience becomes "one of those things" versus "shame on me because only I made that mistake".
Quote:
"Japanese firms were too confident about our technology and manufacturing prowess. We lost sight of the products from the consumer's point of view," said Panasonic President Kazuhiro Tsuga
This statement is very accurate. Samsung TVs accept 1080p over YPbPr and VGA and Panasonics don't.
post #64 of 149
^Wouldn't that (1080p over analog) have more to do with Hollywood bigwigs imposing analog restrictions versus Panasonic's potentially inferior "technology and manufacturing prowess?"
post #65 of 149
Here is a report for Q2 sales, brand and display technologies. The results speak for themselves.

Edit: Posted several hours earlier here: http://www.avsforum.com/t/1309492/4k-by-2k-or-quad-hd-lots-of-rumors-thoughts/1680_60#post_22392918

Edit again: This link is more detailed and probably this is a more appropriate thread: http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/120911_global_tv_shipments_decline_for_second_straight_quarter.asp
Edited by PeterG - 9/11/12 at 6:28pm
post #66 of 149
@ least Panasonic's share went up!
post #67 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

@ least Panasonic's share went up!

Quarter to quarter yes, but year on year the topic of this thread is very appropriate. All 3 tanked and plasmas (which I own now and will be swapping for another tomorrow, look to be extremely moribund). How long will Panasonic continue with Plasmas in view of that massive decline? Samsung seem to have lost interest already in plasmas, in terms of availability and chatter on this and other channels, and Panasonic at least on the mid to higher end have excellent plasmas and mediocre LCDs. Awfully bad news.
post #68 of 149
I hope all three companies can pull out of their declines. I don't want to wake up after 30 years of cryosleep to find out that "all TVs are Samsung". Sorry for the Demolition Man reference.
post #69 of 149
Too right, YoY is not pretty. I was hoping we could see a Panasonic panel that is at least on par with the Kuro before they exit the Plasma realm.
post #70 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

Too right, YoY is not pretty. I was hoping we could see a Panasonic panel that is at least on par with the Kuro before they exit the Plasma realm.

With a 20 percent drop in Plasma sales year over year it may be that what you have now is the best it will be. Plasma has to be on life support behind closed doors and end of life plans may already be in place.

There has to be OLED plans or it will be the end. Not even sure how much further LCD should go. If Sony Panasonic Sharp bet the farm on 4k LCD I don't think it will be enough.

I hope they partner up and do something special. Plasma is in encore mode I'm afraid.

Agreed, a Samsung only world would be horrible.

Rick
Edited by Mr.SoftDome - 9/11/12 at 8:21pm
post #71 of 149
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterG View Post

Quarter to quarter yes, but year on year the topic of this thread is very appropriate. All 3 tanked and plasmas (which I own now and will be swapping for another tomorrow, look to be extremely moribund). How long will Panasonic continue with Plasmas in view of that massive decline? Samsung seem to have lost interest already in plasmas, in terms of availability and chatter on this and other channels, and Panasonic at least on the mid to higher end have excellent plasmas and mediocre LCDs. Awfully bad news.

Panasonic will continue with plasmas for another couple of years. Their production capability is primarily in plasma and there is still virtually no global capacity to make 65" LCDs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve S View Post

I hope all three companies can pull out of their declines. I don't want to wake up after 30 years of cryosleep to find out that "all TVs are Samsung". Sorry for the Demolition Man reference.

Sadly, the likelihood of a mostly Samsung world is more and more likely. Well, Samsung plus Chinese brands that people ought to start to get to know, e.g. Haier, TCL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.SoftDome View Post

With a 20 percent drop in Plasma sales year over year it may be that what you have now is the best it will be. Plasma has to be on life support behind closed doors and end of life plans may already be in place.
There has to be OLED plans or it will be the end. Not even sure how much further LCD should go. If Sony Panasonic Sharp bet the farm on 4k LCD I don't think it will be enough.
I hope they partner up and do something special. Plasma is in encore mode I'm afraid.
Agreed, a Samsung only world would be horrible.
Rick

On the one hand, I don't doubt they have EOL plans for plasma. On the other hand, I doubt they are rushing to do much with them. The market for TVs is shrinking. At best, the market for TVs will again begin to grow slowly. Plasma is mature, the factories are built, the costs to build are low enough.

If I were forced to guess, I'd say that the plasma death watch is at 5 years, possibly as few as 3. The growth of OLED is going to be awfully slow and LCD doesn't offer much; it's just "winning" because there is so much global capacity. If the Japanese yen were to fall in value, the viability of making more Panasonic plasmas for several more years would increase significantly -- especially if Sony exited the TV market.

It's weird to me that Sony is still bothering with TV at all, in fact. They own no production facilities of any kind (except for some tiny TV capacity in small LCDs... too small for anyone to care about), they haven't had primary production of anything at all in the entire flat-panel era, and they are years from OLED commercialization, despite pioneering the technology (they have no fab, no plans for a fab, no LCD fab to begin converting, no expertise in any of the critical technologies needed to make OLED TVs, insufficient capital to risk, etc.) -- and Sony has other businesses. Oh, and Sony hasn't made any money selling TVs in years. It seems like a very strange stubbornness to risk the whole company on such a fundamentally uninteresting business, especially when Samsung is just taking share quarter after quarter.
post #72 of 149
It may surprise some here but plasma is actually more profitable than LCD at this moment in time because the lines have all been depreciated. I've also categorically stated that Plasma sales has peaked when Panasonic closed it's P5 plasma line
post #73 of 149
CRT TVs sell more than plasma. Kind of surprised by that. I don't even know where to buy a CRT TV. Unless those huge cheap mitsubishi's count as CRT.

Plasma has been in steady decline for years. It doesn't look as good as LCD when showing pixar movies in stores.
post #74 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by KidHorn View Post

CRT TVs sell more than plasma. Kind of surprised by that. I don't even know where to buy a CRT TV.

" According to Gagnon, markets like India, South America, and areas of Mexico continue to ship CRT TVs, though U.S. users have not been able to get them since 2008."

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406061,00.asp
Quote:
Unless those huge cheap mitsubishi's count as CRT.

They don't. they are classified as Rear Projection.
post #75 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

" According to Gagnon, markets like India, South America, and areas of Mexico continue to ship CRT TVs, though U.S. users have not been able to get them since 2008."
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406061,00.asp
They don't. they are classified as Rear Projection.

And those Mitsubishis are dlp, not crt based. The last CRT based rptvs were a few cheap Hitachis around '08.
post #76 of 149
Thread Starter 
The dollar value of those CRTs is probably a good deal less than the dollar value of the plasmas, not that it really matters. It's mostly an LCD world.

Of course, plasma's small market share and large-screen, videophile niche isn't really news.

Eventually, it will go away. I suspect by the time the OLED era is truly underway.
post #77 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

It's weird to me that Sony is still bothering with TV at all, in fact. They own no production facilities of any kind (except for some tiny TV capacity in small LCDs... too small for anyone to care about), they haven't had primary production of anything at all in the entire flat-panel era, and they are years from OLED commercialization, despite pioneering the technology (they have no fab, no plans for a fab, no LCD fab to begin converting, no expertise in any of the critical technologies needed to make OLED TVs, insufficient capital to risk, etc.) -- and Sony has other businesses. Oh, and Sony hasn't made any money selling TVs in years. It seems like a very strange stubbornness to risk the whole company on such a fundamentally uninteresting business, especially when Samsung is just taking share quarter after quarter.
Pride and the hope to somehow recapture that former (Triniton?) glory in spite of the odds against it.
post #78 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

It may surprise some here but plasma is actually more profitable than LCD at this moment in time because the lines have all been depreciated. I've also categorically stated that Plasma sales has peaked when Panasonic closed it's P5 plasma line

Hopefully you can give us some insight into Japanese bankruptcy laws. In the USA we have what is called Chapter 11 bankruptcies which allow a company that is still a "going concern" but with too much debt to be reorganized in bankruptcy. It continues business during the process and emerges from Chapter 11 with a good chance of future success. Current stockholders frequently lose all their $ and creditors become the new stockholders is a common outcome. Could something like this occur in Japan?
post #79 of 149
^^ Sorry I actually cover Asia excluding Japan stocks, so I don't want to mislead you without sufficient expertise. The only reason I look at Japan is on a supply chain and competitor perspective. You can probably get some insight from the JAL bankruptcy that is happening now.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304791704577417820413480202.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by KidHorn View Post

CRT TVs sell more than plasma. Kind of surprised by that. I don't even know where to buy a CRT TV. Unless those huge cheap mitsubishi's count as CRT.
Plasma has been in steady decline for years. It doesn't look as good as LCD when showing pixar movies in stores.

CRTs are still being sold in developing countries. But the volume is being halved every year. It is instructive that the Sony Cassette Walkman was only discontinued 2 years ago. A prime example of familiarity bias smile.gif

Plasma sales had a resurgence last year.

The key words on why LCD looks better is "pixar" and "in store" smile.gif
post #80 of 149
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

CRTs are still being sold in developing countries. But the volume is being halved every year.

At that rate, it will never reach zero!
post #81 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Plasma sales had a resurgence last year.
The key words on why LCD looks better is "pixar" and "in store" smile.gif

Seemingly you were thinking of 2010 when plasma did have a resurgence:

http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/110203_plasma_tv_panel_shipments_hit_record_high_in_q4_10.asp



However, in 2011 plasma shipments declined from 2010:

"With plasma TV shipments declining almost 7% in 2011 to 17.2M units, the largest decline yet, and CRT shipments falling 34%, LCD growth was not enough to offset these declines."

http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/120314_2011_tv_shipments_fall_after_six_consecutive_years_of_growth.asp

As the latest report stated a few posts ago:

"Meanwhile, plasma TV shipments fell for the sixth straight quarter, down by more than 20%." This means from Q1 2011 to the latest Q2 2012
Edited by PeterG - 9/13/12 at 12:00am
post #82 of 149
^^ I think it was 2H10 to 1H11... I could dig out the threads that I argued the fact that P5 is shut speaks volume, irregardless of what plasma fans hoped.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

At that rate, it will never reach zero!
can you close a door since you close it by half every second? smile.gif I did not think of this philosophical conundrum by the way rolleyes.gif
post #83 of 149
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

^^ I think it was 2H10 to 1H11... I could dig out the threads that I argued the fact that P5 is shut speaks volume, irregardless of what plasma fans hoped.
can you close a door since you close it by half every second? smile.gif I did not think of this philosophical conundrum by the way rolleyes.gif

Plasma fans are hoping that the plasma market only disappears by half each year until we can buy something better to replace plasma with. Given the philosophical conundrum, we should be fine! smile.gif

More seriously, I think most of us would be comfortable with today's Panasonic plasmas for a few more years until a truly great, equivalent big, reasonably priced OLED is out. I'm still of the mind that's around 2015-2017, which works for me. Someone buying in 2015, however, might well be able to buy a better plasma than today's for less money if the OLED isn't ready.
post #84 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsinger View Post

Hopefully you can give us some insight into Japanese bankruptcy laws. In the USA we have what is called Chapter 11 bankruptcies which allow a company that is still a "going concern" but with too much debt to be reorganized in bankruptcy. It continues business during the process and emerges from Chapter 11 with a good chance of future success. Current stockholders frequently lose all their $ and creditors become the new stockholders is a common outcome. Could something like this occur in Japan?

Japan's Corporate Banco laws are pretty much the same as the USA's:

http://www.ehow.com/facts_6772701_japan_s-bankruptcy-law.html
post #85 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

This is interesting. What it all means is probably that people have become bored with current flat-panel tvs and they don't feel the need to purchase anything that offers a mild spec bump. I get it. I have a Panasonic plasma from 2009 and even though there are better plasmas now, I don't feel the mildly improved specs warrant an upgrade expense. Tv sets would have to get much better to compel people to pay attention, just like FPs did as compared to CRTs. Like rogo said, 4K and OLED will probably not be enough to cause an average consumer to suddenly exclaim, "I've got to have this!" No, what consumers need now (what I need :-)) is something more revolutionary. And what would make me upgrade now is only a transparent polymer "wallpaper" "tv set" I could hang on my wall. I'd like to be able to order this >100"-diagonal, super-thin, super-light sheet in a roll so I could easily transport it home, unroll it and hang on my wall. Ease of installation is important because, even if people had the money for that 103" Panasonic plasma, how would they get it into their homes without it becoming a construction project? The bulk of current >100" flat-panel tvs is a less obvious barrier to adoption besides cost and energy consumption.
It's a given, of course, that, these huge tv sizes require 4K, at least, and nothing less than OLED PQ specs. But, it's the new form factor that will decide whether people get the irresistible urge to upgrade or not. And it all must be cheap, and it could be, once these struggling tv makers figure out reliable roll-to-roll production of these giant, wallpaper-like OLED or QLED polymer sheets. Until that happens, an average consumer will not care about these incremental improvements in specs, therefore will refuse to buy the traditional flat-panel tv set unless his current tv set breaks down.

In agreement wink.gif
post #86 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

" According to Gagnon, markets like India, South America, and areas of Mexico continue to ship CRT TVs, though U.S. users have not been able to get them since 2008."
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406061,00.asp
They don't. they are classified as Rear Projection.

Indian CRT scene is also steadily declining. People prefer to buy a 22" LCD over the CRT. It may be available in the villages, but the sales there will be hardly anything.
post #87 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Plasma fans are hoping that the plasma market only disappears by half each year until we can buy something better to replace plasma with. Given the philosophical conundrum, we should be fine! smile.gif
More seriously, I think most of us would be comfortable with today's Panasonic plasmas for a few more years until a truly great, equivalent big, reasonably priced OLED is out. I'm still of the mind that's around 2015-2017, which works for me. Someone buying in 2015, however, might well be able to buy a better plasma than today's for less money if the OLED isn't ready.

I would guess 4K led tvs will be available in about the same time frame. Maybe even sooner if expected production costs over 1080p TVs is as low as I've read.

Even when viewing upsampled 1080 content, I would guess it will look a lot better than current panny plasma's. Or at least a lot sharper.
post #88 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

At that rate, it will never reach zero!

Well, you really can't sell a half of a TV.
post #89 of 149
Pioneer was selling over 400,000 Kuros a year when it pulled the plug because it wasn't profitable.
post #90 of 149
[quote name="KidHorn" url="/t/1422916/sony-panasonic-and-sharp-tv-divisions-melting-down-in-summer-2012-heat#post_22275119"
I think the real problem is there are too many companies making TVs.[/quote]

The opposite, too few companies, is extremely bad for the 99%.
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