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Poll: WIll there be an OLED for sale in the U.S. in 2012?

Poll Results: Will there be an OLED TV for sale in the U.S. in 2012?

 
  • 5% (4)
    Yes, the LG will be for sale, but only the LG.
  • 5% (4)
    Yes, the Samsung will be fore sale, but only the Samsung.
  • 4% (3)
    Yes, both the Samsung and LG will be for sale.
  • 84% (59)
    No, neither will be for sale in the U.S. in 2012.
70 Total Votes  
post #1 of 52
Thread Starter 
A fun prediction thread.
post #2 of 52
LG has already stated they will not be selling their 55" OLED until 2013. Samsung said they will be selling (in very limited quantites) in Q4 2012, but I don't believe they will. So I picked the last choice.
post #3 of 52
Not to be crass, but eff no! biggrin.gif
post #4 of 52
Does this mean that all the vaporware worshipers out there are crying?

How many more years can the Kuro worshipers keep laughing?
post #5 of 52
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

LG has already stated they will not be selling their 55" OLED until 2013. Samsung said they will be selling (in very limited quantites) in Q4 2012, but I don't believe they will. So I picked the last choice.

Did they? Or did someone report that they did?
post #6 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Did they? Or did someone report that they did?

A report - where there's smoke . . . there's fire. wink.gif
post #7 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

A report - where there's smoke . . . there's fire. wink.gif

Also, their last official statement at IFA said late December. I think we can safely assume that means 2013. Guess we'll be seeing another CES go by filled with award-winning vaporware that nobody can actually buy. I would prefer if they kept these prototypes in the lab and not announce anything until the month they are actually ready to hit stores. This constant teasing is getting tiresome.
post #8 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post

Also, their last official statement at IFA said late December. I think we can safely assume that means 2013. Guess we'll be seeing another CES go by filled with award-winning vaporware that nobody can actually buy. I would prefer if they kept these prototypes in the lab and not announce anything until the month they are actually ready to hit stores. This constant teasing is getting tiresome.

Then we have this that just developed:

LG Display sues Samsung over OLED patents

http://www.zdnet.com/lg-display-sues-samsung-over-oled-patents-7000004893/
Edited by Lee Stewart - 9/28/12 at 5:42am
post #9 of 52
found this in the OLEd thread
Quote:
Samsung is pushing hard to launch OLEd this year, before christmas says Samsung AV National Sales and Marketing Manager, Brad Wright.
http://smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And_Large_Display/Industry/T9X7K8M3?page=1

LG will start massproduction in December 2012.


^^ we might gonna see a december surprise wink.gif


My prediction is that we will see samsung and LG OLEd in the stores in Europe and North-America mai/june 2013.
post #10 of 52
Bring back SED
post #11 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazishere View Post

Bring back SED

tongue.gif

They will be studying that whole fiascio in business schools till the end of time.
post #12 of 52
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

found this in the OLEd thread
http://smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And_Large_Display/Industry/T9X7K8M3?page=1
LG will start massproduction in December 2012.
^^ we might gonna see a december surprise wink.gif
My prediction is that we will see samsung and LG OLEd in the stores in Europe and North-America mai/june 2013.

You get that if production does start in December there is no chance of product this year, right?

I'm pretty sure you do, but just to be clear, product for holiday is usually committed by August/September and in logistics by early November at the latest.

Sadly, I agree with your timeframes in the last line... (although I am likely to now win some trivial bet I had with Specuvestor... however, I forget what the stakes are... Perhaps he can help me serve crow to all the hypesters wink.gif)
post #13 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

You get that if production does start in December there is no chance of product this year, right?
I'm pretty sure you do, but just to be clear, product for holiday is usually committed by August/September and in logistics by early November at the latest.
Sadly, I agree with your timeframes in the last line... (although I am likely to now win some trivial bet I had with Specuvestor... however, I forget what the stakes are... Perhaps he can help me serve crow to all the hypesters wink.gif)

i think you're right.

as i recall the bet with spec was for 500k.
post #14 of 52
Ohh, I got some money riding on this. I can't remember how much or with who, but as long as OLED make it to the US this year, I should win.
post #15 of 52
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post

Ohh, I got some money riding on this. I can't remember how much or with who, but as long as OLED make it to the US this year, I should win.

I wouldn't count those chickens quite yet.
post #16 of 52
If they get a production model to the market will it be affordable ?
Have they finally found a way to make it last as long as LCD and Plasma ?
Will the picture be night and day difference from what we have now ?
Unless the answer is yes to those 3 questions doubt it.
post #17 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech View Post

If they get a production model to the market will it be affordable ?

To 95+% of the market - No
Quote:
Have they finally found a way to make it last as long as LCD and Plasma ?

Not yet.
Quote:
Will the picture be night and day difference from what we have now ?

Those that have seen them say yes.
Quote:
Unless the answer is yes to those 3 questions doubt it.

But I don't see the relevance of these questions as to the question asked in this Poll:

Will there be an OLED TV for sale in the U.S. in 2012?
post #18 of 52
With a couple dozen responses I'm the only one so far who voted that they will both be availale this year. I know, it's highly unlikely, but hey, I can hope, right? The penalty for voting wrong isn't too severe. smile.gif
post #19 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

With a couple dozen responses I'm the only one so far who voted that they will both be availale this year. I know, it's highly unlikely, but hey, I can hope, right? The penalty for voting wrong isn't too severe. smile.gif

Apparently, you did not read the fine print when voting. Those voting wrong will be banned from AVSforum.com for 1 year.eek.gif
post #20 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

You get that if production does start in December there is no chance of product this year, right?
I'm pretty sure you do, but just to be clear, product for holiday is usually committed by August/September and in logistics by early November at the latest.
Sadly, I agree with your timeframes in the last line... (although I am likely to now win some trivial bet I had with Specuvestor... however, I forget what the stakes are... Perhaps he can help me serve crow to all the hypesters wink.gif)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

i think you're right.
as i recall the bet with spec was for 500k.

My memory is still intact: The bet was that a 32" OLED will be selling for $5k if it was available in 2012 Christmas, back 2 years ago when people were skeptical that OLED is even viable (just go read the OLED thread). Tricky part now is that they skipped "monitor" size and we now know that a 55" would be selling for $12k if it was available, which is almost 4X 32". I'm not sure I should serve crow to myself but I'm willing to let rogo win smile.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post

Ohh, I got some money riding on this. I can't remember how much or with who, but as long as OLED make it to the US this year, I should win.

I took the bet early this year because you kept saying OLED TV is vaporware and no one dare to call your bluff. I doubt many would agree by now. Proof of the pudding: do you still think OLED TV is vaporware? Nonetheless I will pay you the $20 Amazon voucher by end this year if it is not available anywhere in the world, which was worth an optimistic bet if production were smoother. To be clear, LG 84" 4K is not vaporware.
http://www.avsforum.com/t/681125/oled-tvs-technology-advancements-thread/3330#post_21484693
http://www.avsforum.com/t/1309492/4k-by-2k-or-quad-hd-lots-of-rumors-thoughts/390#post_21393690

I'm so sure on OLED nowadays I don't even bother reading on LCD and plasma anymore
Edited by specuvestor - 9/30/12 at 10:54pm
post #21 of 52
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

My memory is still intact: The bet was that a 32" OLED will be selling for $5k if it was available in 2012 Christmas, back 2 years ago when people were skeptical that OLED is even viable (just go read the OLED thread). Tricky part now is that they skipped "monitor" size and we now know that a 55" would be selling for $12k if it was available, which is almost 4X 32". I'm not sure I should serve crow to myself but I'm willing to let rogo win smile.gif

I was referencing serving crow to others. You can eat a serving if you wish, but not required. wink.gif

Bottom line is that this stuff is really hard to commercialize. There are still some questions about viability, both technical and in the marketplace. Not "can this be done at all" or "can this be sold at all", but "can this be done at scale" and "can this be sold at scale" that have not been addressed. And they really won't be addressed until unit volumes go from zero to hundreds of thousands to millions. Like you, I believe at this point they will be answered in the affirmative. But until they are, the idea it's certain constitutes optimism, not realism.
post #22 of 52
^^ totally agree... commercializing prototypes are really tough. As much as they try do the maths and ensure supply chain competence, there are always hiccups, especially when one is pioneering. That is one of the reasons why they always let the Japanese do it first smile.gif But OLED is now led by the Koreans which is actually quite watershed.

Likewise until an 8G OLED ramps, it is hard to say whether LCD or OLED is more cost effective on a cash basis, though we have a pretty good idea theoretically smile.gif And industry dynamics keep changing with new entrants with new capacity, with the more credible one seemed to be AU Optronics.

Nonethless I will help serve crows to those who project volumes without looking at capex or capacity biggrin.gif Outputs adjusted by yields are mathematically defined... It doesn't matter how positive a company is on OLED without any committed capex. In short "show me the money"
post #23 of 52
A/V market, esp display tech is so damn dead these days.

I remember coming here all the time to see what's new and exciting. However, the past couple of years it's just been garbage.

I keep hoping for a leap over my Kuro because I've been itching to get something new for a while now but nope. Just empty promises.
post #24 of 52
Korea Times - both LG and Samsung won't be able to ship OLED TVs in 2012

Korea Times posted an article in which they say that both Samsung and LG won't be able to start producing OLED TVs in 2012 - as both company are facing technical issues and very low yields. Both companies intended to launch the OLED TVs in time for the Olympic games in London (August 2012) - but obviously they failed to do so. Last month Digitimes reported that LG won't be able to launch in 2012, and now we hear that Samsung won't start producing either.
post #25 of 52
Thread Starter 
LG continues to claim otherwise:

"However, CNET has spoken with a well-placed LG official who insists the report is inaccurate. "LG's plans have not changed for initial launch in late 2012," he said. That launch will likely be in limited quantities, said the official, and he couldn't go into detail as to whether the TVs would launch in Korea only or elsewhere this year."

You can translate that however you wish. I read it clearly as: "We have no chance of launching the TV in any real way this year, but we are going to try to sell a few in Korea for bragging rights. We have 60 days left to do that, so keep an eye out in some high-end shops in Seoul. Because we are not talking about many units. But we are going to shoot for a non-zero number."

Anyway, the answer to the poll is, "No." The 83% wisdom of the crowd proved correct.
post #26 of 52
Are the same people that have eliminated full size cars to the point that all a Cadillac XTS is is a Cadillac Malibu(can you remember the size of the Cadillac Cimmaron?}

the same people that are eliminating plasma so you have to face the horror of LCD?

I'm all for OLED IF it is superior to the best plasma that Panasonic produces and IF it has at leas a 65-inch size--and IF a 65-inch wouldn't cost but $3,500!

But of course that won't happen. The video display industry would like to FORCE me to buy LCD that sucks and I guarantee you they'll make plenty of money that way just like the automobile industry makes plenty of money by eliminating full size cars and making you buy a SUV just to get some SIZE!

The choice will be either big LCD that SUCKS big time in quality or SMALL OLED that will cost trillions!

There won't be a plasma alternative. The display industry will make plenty of money and the video consumer who wants SIZE and decent quality(say something like a 65-inch VT-50 plasma at a price that is not astronomical) will be screwed.

For years I have feared a video world almost completely FULL with the horror of LCD--it looks like that scenario is coming to fruition.

Is OLED the ONLY technology that can save the world from the horror of LCD?
post #27 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Anyway, the answer to the poll is, "No." The 83% wisdom of the crowd proved correct.


That seems very likely to be the case but I"ll wait until Dec 31st to make that judgment. After all, the poll didn't say "Will there be a significant number of OLEDs for sale in the US in 2012", rather it said "Will there be an Oled for sale in the US".
post #28 of 52
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich Peterson View Post

That seems very likely to be the case but I"ll wait until Dec 31st to make that judgment. After all, the poll didn't say "Will there be a significant number of OLEDs for sale in the US in 2012", rather it said "Will there be an Oled for sale in the US".

Fair enough. Based on the most recent words from LG and Samsung, I think even token sales here are in the "slim to no chance" category. But we'll have our answer shortly.
post #29 of 52
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

Are the same people that have eliminated full size cars to the point that all a Cadillac XTS is is a Cadillac Malibu(can you remember the size of the Cadillac Cimmaron?}
the same people that are eliminating plasma so you have to face the horror of LCD?
I'm all for OLED IF it is superior to the best plasma that Panasonic produces and IF it has at leas a 65-inch size--and IF a 65-inch wouldn't cost but $3,500!
But of course that won't happen. The video display industry would like to FORCE me to buy LCD that sucks and I guarantee you they'll make plenty of money that way just like the automobile industry makes plenty of money by eliminating full size cars and making you buy a SUV just to get some SIZE!
The choice will be either big LCD that SUCKS big time in quality or SMALL OLED that will cost trillions!
There won't be a plasma alternative. The display industry will make plenty of money and the video consumer who wants SIZE and decent quality(say something like a 65-inch VT-50 plasma at a price that is not astronomical) will be screwed.
For years I have feared a video world almost completely FULL with the horror of LCD--it looks like that scenario is coming to fruition.
Is OLED the ONLY technology that can save the world from the horror of LCD?

Even OLED won't save you. Forget that the price will be insane but then you have burn-in issues that make plasma seem like it will last forever.

I would be interested in plasma but those have their own set of flaws, notable for me the awful dithering that you see in lower color values.

I think you will find a real living unicorn before finding a perfect display tech.
post #30 of 52
Quote:
An LG spokesperson told HD Guru shipments of its 55EM9600 OLED production version we viewed in Monaco this past spring, will make it out of its factory in 2012, however LG would not assure any units will end up in the USA this year.

Samsung’s spokesperson told HD Guru its 55ES9500 OLED will make it to our shores in 2012.

http://hdguru.com/oled-hdtvs-will-arrive-in-2012/8943/
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