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2015: Plasma's final year? - Page 3

post #61 of 101
10/30/12 at 7:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

^Apples versus oranges. I can't think of a video game console in recent memory that hasn't been priced at a loss from the beginning. Rogo already touched on that, though, in that Nintendo hopes to make up for the losses in accessories and software aplenty for its U of which there will be no shortage.

I can see that, sure. I was reacting to his declaration that his assertions weren't true with just panels "but also with every consumer electronics technology period", which seemed a clear over-reach.
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post #62 of 101
10/30/12 at 8:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Thank you for a well reasoned out reply. I think you establish your points very well. However then, tell me your thoughts on this:
Nintendo To Initially Sell Wii U At A Loss
This is an example of precisely what I was talking about that you say just cannot be done. Here's a quote from within it:
This isn't merely betting on next week, it's a bet much further down the road.

No, it is not related in any way and I actually addressed that in my post.

The Wii U sells initially at a loss because even the original Wii U's have a lifetime value above zero, thanks to the value of game sales and related licensing fees. Nintendo makes $30+ on house-branded games and north of $10 on 3rd-party titles. They also make meaningful margin selling branded accessories, with an attach rate of probably 50%. That's a lot of guaranteed profit per unit after the sale. The OLED maker's post-sale profit is zero. Period. You can understand, surely, how different that is.

Building a base of Wii U owners is a multi-billion-dollar bet that involves creating an ecosystem and a userbase. None of that applies to selling you a TV one time per decade.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

I can see that, sure. I was reacting to his declaration that his assertions weren't true with just panels "but also with every consumer electronics technology period", which seemed a clear over-reach.

But it isn't. I didn't say nothing could ever be sold at a loss period. I said you can't price down the learning curve on TVs and take a billion-dollar loss.

Nintendo, incidentally, won't likely be able to lose a billion dollars to sell 10 million Wii U consoles ($100 loss per unit), even though the lifetime value of those 10 million is almost certainly north of that. But if the loss is, in fact, that large, it's only because they have much better data on how many accessories and games per console they already know they will sell. Therefore, it's inaccurate to view the loss as $100 per unit, but rather to view each Wii U sale as Wii U + x games + y accessories and to calculate the value that way. Again, none of this applies when selling TVs.
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post #63 of 101
10/31/12 at 5:43am
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

No, it is not related in any way and I actually addressed that in my post.
The Wii U sells initially at a loss because even the original Wii U's have a lifetime value above zero, thanks to the value of game sales and related licensing fees. Nintendo makes $30+ on house-branded games and north of $10 on 3rd-party titles. They also make meaningful margin selling branded accessories, with an attach rate of probably 50%. That's a lot of guaranteed profit per unit after the sale. The OLED maker's post-sale profit is zero. Period. You can understand, surely, how different that is.
Building a base of Wii U owners is a multi-billion-dollar bet that involves creating an ecosystem and a userbase. None of that applies to selling you a TV one time per decade.
But it isn't. I didn't say nothing could ever be sold at a loss period. I said you can't price down the learning curve on TVs and take a billion-dollar loss.
Nintendo, incidentally, won't likely be able to lose a billion dollars to sell 10 million Wii U consoles ($100 loss per unit), even though the lifetime value of those 10 million is almost certainly north of that. But if the loss is, in fact, that large, it's only because they have much better data on how many accessories and games per console they already know they will sell. Therefore, it's inaccurate to view the loss as $100 per unit, but rather to view each Wii U sale as Wii U + x games + y accessories and to calculate the value that way. Again, none of this applies when selling TVs.

Fair enough. Stated well.
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post #64 of 101
10/31/12 at 2:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by homogenic View Post

They have eyes when purchasing a television. They prefer the artificial unnatural brightness, the crayon saturation vividness, and the surgical sharpness. They're accustom to its aesthetic with their PCs and smaller than HT sized panels. How could plasma compete for the common man's dollar?

When LCD first came out they offered smaller screens at a lower price than plasma. Now that the larger screen market is growing rapidly plasma finds itself to be the better bang for the buck. A 55+' LCD that can compete with a Panasonic or Samsung costs a great deal more. That's how plasma can compete but they need to do a similar job of marketing and educating the public the way LCD did in the 80's and 90's. The reason Sony and Hitachi dropped out of the plasma market was strictly because of higher profits in the LCD field. It was relatively cheap to bombard the public with 32", 37", 40". 42", 46", 47' displays while plasma was pretty much stuck with 42" and 50". If you don't think marketing played a huge role just look at what Samsung did with the so called LED technology (NOT). The sales people bought into it and pushed it and the public fell for the hype. Now they preach edge lit as being the new tech on the block. They push it because it's cheaper to build than full array even though the edge lit PQ is mostly weaker than full array.
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post #65 of 101
10/31/12 at 4:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by andy sullivan View Post

When LCD first came out they offered smaller screens at a lower price than plasma. Now that the larger screen market is growing rapidly plasma finds itself to be the better bang for the buck. A 55+' LCD that can compete with a Panasonic or Samsung costs a great deal more. That's how plasma can compete but they need to do a similar job of marketing and educating the public the way LCD did in the 80's and 90's. The reason Sony and Hitachi dropped out of the plasma market was strictly because of higher profits in the LCD field. It was relatively cheap to bombard the public with 32", 37", 40". 42", 46", 47' displays while plasma was pretty much stuck with 42" and 50". If you don't think marketing played a huge role just look at what Samsung did with the so called LED technology (NOT). The sales people bought into it and pushed it and the public fell for the hype. Now they preach edge lit as being the new tech on the block. They push it because it's cheaper to build than full array even though the edge lit PQ is mostly weaker than full array.
They are marketing to the converted and the technologically illiterate. Plasma was sexy for the geek squad and those who knew and could afford the best, but the size issue hurt plasma for people who wanted just a replacement television and not a centerpiece for a home theater setup. The true tragedy is how fast CRTs fell out of favor with the public for flat panel tech—SED/FED/Quantum Dot/Crystal LED WE NEED YOU!
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post #66 of 101
3/18/13 at 5:51am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Panasonic is leaning towards withdrawing from Plasma television operations as part of a downsizing of its television business over three years starting next fiscal year.

Nikkei
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-panasonic-plasmatv-idUSBRE92H00020130318
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post #67 of 101
3/18/13 at 5:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

Quote:
Panasonic is leaning towards withdrawing from Plasma television operations as part of a downsizing of its television business over three years starting next fiscal year.

Nikkei
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-panasonic-plasmatv-idUSBRE92H00020130318


My first question (I understand the dwindling demand issue, but...) : How much of this is a based upon front-loaded OLED investment cost, and LCD/IGZO closing the gap between LCD and plasma?
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post #68 of 101
3/18/13 at 12:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

My first question (I understand the dwindling demand issue, but...) : How much of this is a based upon front-loaded OLED investment cost, and LCD/IGZO closing the gap between LCD and plasma?

I think a lot of it based on losing money on every unit sold as the utilization factor of the plasma plant is just too low on these numbers...

If the OLED rumors are true -- that they and Sony are planning on outsourcing all the mfg. to others -- they are likely to fail there, even while spending little.
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post #69 of 101
3/18/13 at 12:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

My first question (I understand the dwindling demand issue, but...) : How much of this is a based upon front-loaded OLED investment cost, and LCD/IGZO closing the gap between LCD and plasma?

I think a lot of it based on losing money on every unit sold as the utilization factor of the plasma plant is just too low on these numbers...

If the OLED rumors are true -- that they and Sony are planning on outsourcing all the mfg. to others -- they are likely to fail there, even while spending little.

Ok. While trying my best to keep up with you guys on this (and failing), it seems at first glance that the Samsung/LG legal cease-fire left Sony and Panasonic the ones a little out in the cold in OLED technology, in particular, manufacturing methods. No?
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post #70 of 101
3/18/13 at 5:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Ok. While trying my best to keep up with you guys on this (and failing), it seems at first glance that the Samsung/LG legal cease-fire left Sony and Panasonic the ones a little out in the cold in OLED technology, in particular, manufacturing methods. No?

Well, let's briefly run through the state of affairs in mfg.

Samsung: Was using FMM RGB and failing. Negotiated to basically license RGBW, zero-pixel OLED tech from LG.

LG: Is using RGBW, zero-pixel tech which is supposed to be "easy" to implement, but still can't ship a TV. Is this solely because they are failing at 55" IGZO (which is a separate problem, not technically related to OLED, but couple by LG's decision to blend IGZO and OLED as simultaneous launches)? We don't know if that's why, but it could be.

Sony/Panasonic: Is working on the "holy grail" of "printable" RGB OLED, a 10+-year-old idea that has never gotten farther than the lab. Again, the idea they are perfecting this on the backs of third-parties (and not especially well capitalized ones at that) is laughable to me. To do this right, you have to basically invest in inventing the technology, you can't hope someone else just does it.

People will draw inferences to how Apple pushed techs it didn't develop, but those analogies are thin. Apple either (1) spent billions on development or (2) asked for incremental changes to stuff that already existed.
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post #71 of 101
4/11/13 at 6:39am
Thread Starter 
Panasonic has developed its 'last Plasma panel'.


By Dante D'Orazioon April 10, 2013

Panasonic's latest television, the ZT60, is the best plasma the company has ever made. It will also be the last plasma panel to come out of the company's research and development department, which means Panasonic will never make a higher-quality plasma television.

Rumors that Panasonic would end plasma research and development first surfaced in December, and a report from Nikkei last month said the company had closed down R&D with plans to pull out of plasma altogether as early as 2014. Panasonic Display Vice President Kiyoshi Okamoto confirmed to The Verge today at an event in New York that development has ceased, and said that the ZT60 uses "the last plasma panel" from research and development. Okamoto was quick to note, however, that panel development is not the same as television production: he made it clear that Panasonic would continue to make and sell plasma televisions into 2014 at the very least, saying that "we have a responsibility" to customers to continue production.

"OLED is one of the key future products"

When asked if plasma R&D may ever start back up, Okamoto said that isn't the plan. The company has shifted at least some of its plasma engineers to OLED development, with which Panasonic plans to eventually replace its plasma lineup. Panasonic has yet to reveal its OLED plans, though it showed off a prototype model at CES this January and it is in a co-development partnership with Sony. Okamoto said "OLED is one of the key future products" for Panasonic, and that it is continuing to study demand for the televisions before announcing any plans. He elaborated that the company may focus on business sales at first. Considering the company's financial woes (it posted a nearly ¥700 billion loss the quarter before last) the executive said it needed to make sure it could profitably produce OLEDs before bringing them to market. Manufacturers across the board have struggled with yield rates to-date, making OLEDs prohibitively expensive and rare.

"Plasma has superior picture quality"

The move to shutter plasma development comes as LCD continues its dominance. Some consumers continue to fear burn-in and others believe LCD is a newer — and therefore better — technology. Plasma shipments plummeted 23 percent year-over-year in 2012 compared to just a one percent drop for LCDs, according to NPD. Panasonic has been hurt by the move to LCD, and it projects that plasmas will continue to represent about 11 percent of its unit sales in the future. Nevertheless, plasma remains an important part of Panasonic's television lineup. Of the company's 2013 models, about half are plasmas, and representatives said that the company would continue to advertise that "plasma has superior picture quality" over LCD televisions. However, Okamoto said that the company has invested too heavily on plasmas, and that "we should invest more in LCD," especially when it comes to marketing.

If Panasonic must pull the plug on plasma development, the ZT60 isn't the worst place to stop. The television, which will be available in 60- and 65-inch models this June for about $500 more than the $2,999.99 VT60, looked fantastic in a demonstration today in New York. The television was pitted head-to-head with a Pioneer Kuro Elite 151FD, part of the company's highly-vaunted plasma lineup that was discontinued in 2009. The ZT60 compared favorably with that set, and executives said the new model indirectly takes advantage of some of the developments Panasonic acquired from Pioneer back in 2009. Black levels were not quite as good as the inky levels we've seen on OLEDs, but they weren't far off. The company says a carefully laminated filter, which eliminates the air gap in front of the panel, reduces reflections and maintains true blacks. The television also clearly beat the Kuro when it came to motion blur.

With Panasonic and the industry as a whole moving away from plasmas, the so-called "Beyond the Reference" ZT60 may very well be the pinnacle of the display technology. If you've been holding out, there is little reason to wait any longer — though it appears that televisions using this same panel and other plasma displays from the company will be available for some time to come.
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post #72 of 101
4/11/13 at 6:44am
^^^

Keep in mind this:
Quote:
Okamoto was quick to note, however, that panel development is not the same as television production: he made it clear that Panasonic would continue to make and sell plasma televisions into 2014 at the very least

because I'm betting people will gloss over it.
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post #73 of 101
4/11/13 at 12:21pm
^^^ still means one thing: it's over but the crying frown.gif

Plasma may not be the best, but the best price / performance for sure.
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post #74 of 101
4/11/13 at 1:57pm
there is still one sliver of hope.

samsungs 8500 which is due to be released soon, based on early reports, might exceed or equal the zt60.

maybe they can hang in there with their plasma r & d.
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post #75 of 101
4/11/13 at 2:15pm
One is left wondering what the 2014 models will be without any R&D behind them. Does that mean no incremental changes? Or does it just mean nothing substantive?

In the meantime, the thread title looks pretty much on point. The very clear thing, however, is that come 2015, there will be no high-quality 65" OLED to replace some of the things plasma buyers seek in a TV (unlimited viewing angles, affordable high-performance, etc.)
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post #76 of 101
4/11/13 at 3:03pm
As a long time Panasonic plasma fan, this is a very sad announcement.

Now there is only OLED left to save the world from LCD...
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post #77 of 101
4/11/13 at 6:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by barth2k View Post

^^^ still means one thing: it's over but the crying frown.gif

Plasma may not be the best, but the best price / performance for sure.
What is the best? Full-array LEDs? Everything has a fault, those included.
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post #78 of 101
4/12/13 at 12:50pm
What I find most concerning is the near extinction of quality full array local dimming LCDs in addition the death throes of plasma.

What is out there now in full array local dimming? The Sony 950. Remaining stock of Sharp Elites. What else is there? I remenber some excellent ones a few years back from Sammy and LG. Can't quite recall their models numbers. B850 from Sammy and LX55 from LG maybe.

We could be headed to a few years of little to no choices in large size (60 +) near-reference displays
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post #79 of 101
4/12/13 at 3:09pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elvis Is Alive View Post

What I find most concerning is the near extinction of quality full array local dimming LCDs in addition the death throes of plasma.

What is out there now in full array local dimming? The Sony 950. Remaining stock of Sharp Elites. What else is there? I remenber some excellent ones a few years back from Sammy and LG. Can't quite recall their models numbers. B850 from Sammy and LX55 from LG maybe.

We could be headed to a few years of little to no choices in large size (60 +) near-reference displays


going backwards in time...
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post #80 of 101
4/12/13 at 4:14pm
It seems we are absolutely headed into a black hole even if OLEDs do ship. First of all, they'll be capped at 55". Second of all, they'll be so expensive that most of us won't consider them.

Basically, for 60-70" -- where today affordable, reference-quality sets are available -- you are about to enter a period where no such thing is sold. Yes, yes, there'll be some really nice edge-lit LCDs. But the black levels simply don't compare (the objective data on the F8000 Samsung makes it clear that nothing revolutionary has been achieved on ANSI contrast -- period) and you can't have unlimited viewing angles. I suppose it's possible Samsung will sell an "H series" of it's plasma in 2015, so we should take some solace from that maybe? But even if that's for sale, it's likely to be alone in the market. No full-array LCDs with it and a Panasonic plasma that is 2013's technology with perhaps 2014's cosmetics... Maybe.

In technology, this kind of backwards step is fairly unprecedented.
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post #81 of 101
4/13/13 at 4:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

It seems we are absolutely headed into a black hole even if OLEDs do ship. First of all, they'll be capped at 55". Second of all, they'll be so expensive that most of us won't consider them.

Basically, for 60-70" -- where today affordable, reference-quality sets are available -- you are about to enter a period where no such thing is sold. Yes, yes, there'll be some really nice edge-lit LCDs. But the black levels simply don't compare (the objective data on the F8000 Samsung makes it clear that nothing revolutionary has been achieved on ANSI contrast -- period) and you can't have unlimited viewing angles. I suppose it's possible Samsung will sell an "H series" of it's plasma in 2015, so we should take some solace from that maybe? But even if that's for sale, it's likely to be alone in the market. No full-array LCDs with it and a Panasonic plasma that is 2013's technology with perhaps 2014's cosmetics... Maybe.

In technology, this kind of backwards step is fairly unprecedented.

Hope we are being overly pessimistic otherwise my 70" Elite will be used much longer than I have anticipated. Planned to get a 75-80" 4k LCD in 2-3 years BUT it will have to equal the Elite in black level and white level performance (without clipping). Wonder if improving economy world wide will reinvigorate production of "videophile" sets.
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post #82 of 101
4/13/13 at 1:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsinger View Post

Hope we are being overly pessimistic otherwise my 70" Elite will be used much longer than I have anticipated. Planned to get a 75-80" 4k LCD in 2-3 years BUT it will have to equal the Elite in black level and white level performance (without clipping). Wonder if improving economy world wide will reinvigorate production of "videophile" sets.

I just don't see how we are being pessimistic. There is no LCD development in the next 2-3 years that's going to radically alter things nor a shred of evidence that anyone is going to be building affordable (or any really) full-array locally dimmed sets.
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post #83 of 101
4/13/13 at 3:06pm
If 3 years is the bad news, then heck.

Buy the 2014 panasonic uber-plasma (I'm sure they'll have one), and enjoy it for 3-4 more years until things magically get either fixed (IGZO/LCD or whatever) or OLED and other new technologies firm up to calm your nerves.
Edited by tgm1024 - 4/14/13 at 8:19am
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post #84 of 101
4/13/13 at 11:02pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

If 3 years is the bad news, then heck.

Buy the 2014 panasonic uber-plasma (I'm sure they'll have one), and enjoy it for 3-4 more years until things magically get either fixed (IGZO/LCD or OLED or whatever) shows up to calm your nerves.

Exactly...

Perfect time to work on your audio now for a while....

Rick
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post #85 of 101
4/14/13 at 8:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.SoftDome View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

If 3 years is the bad news, then heck.

Buy the 2014 panasonic uber-plasma (I'm sure they'll have one), and enjoy it for 3-4 more years until things magically get either fixed (IGZO/LCD or OLED or whatever) shows up to calm your nerves.

Exactly...

Perfect time to work on your audio now for a while....

Rick

................................................eeeeek. Maybe not. One of the problems hovering around 4K right now like a rash is the HDMI spec. I'm not sure you want to work on audio that might be ARC or otherwise driven by HDMI until that 2.0 mumbo-jumbo settles down. A top of the line HDMI receiver might need upgrading pretty quickly. :-/

But then again, nothing is ever "done", and if you play the waiting game you will never ever buy anything.
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post #86 of 101
4/14/13 at 1:51pm
I spent a good deal of time at CES explaining to the mfrs. that their 4K TVs were nice but it was unfortunately that they didn't have true 4K ports since they didn't exist. My concerns were dismissed with a lot of yammering about 30fps being "plenty". I moved on.

As for 3 years being no big deal, it's a big deal if you happen to be shopping for a videophile-quality TV in 2015-17 and you can't buy one for $3000, but you could've in 2014 and before. And you have to sit and wait until 2018 to get another one. That's really just... unprecedented.

(Let's leave out things like closeouts on Kuros, which really don't apply. Those were $5000-6000+ TVs before Pioneer quit the market and dumped the product. And honestly, they didn't even offer 65".)
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post #87 of 101
4/15/13 at 1:30pm
We can only hope that market forces will encourage a manufacturer to see a gap in the market and release a near-reference set in 60"+ where little to no competition will exist.

A local dimming fully array LED would be the only choice in the near term future (2014ish-2017ish) I assume.

Then again, there is a reason local dimmers with full array arent made anymore. Average Joe doesn't see the value in the price premium.

I hate the flaws in edge-lit. Maybe Artwood is onto something , lol.
Edited by Elvis Is Alive - 4/15/13 at 1:37pm
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post #88 of 101
4/15/13 at 2:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elvis Is Alive View Post

We can only hope that market forces will encourage a manufacturer to see a gap in the market and release a near-reference set in 60"+ where little to no competition will exist.

A local dimming fully array LED would be the only choice in the near term future (2014ish-2017ish) I assume.

Then again, there is a reason local dimmers with full array arent made anymore. Average Joe doesn't see the value in the price premium.

I hate the flaws in edge-lit. Maybe Artwood is onto something , lol.

AIUI, the "flaws" that creep in seemingly randomly in the edge-lit model are entirely tolerance in nature. No?

If we can someday:
  1. Get as many LED's around the edges AND
  2. Have the light guides aligned with exceedingly tight tolerance AND
  3. Make sure the guides themselves aren't impeeding the light quality (or are compensated for)

....then wouldn't the two technologies produce results exceedingly close if not identical?
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post #89 of 101
4/15/13 at 4:12pm
You can improve a lot with tolerances. A lot.

But you can't offer ANSI like local-dimming with edge-lit no matter what you do. The zones will always be oddly shaped, even if they proliferation (long, thin rectangles that go to midscreen is the best you can achieve).

If you go to dual-axis edge-lighting, you can get closer to full array, but then you are better served by dropping all the light guides (and tolerance issues) and just going full array.
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post #90 of 101
4/15/13 at 4:13pm
AIUI (as I understand it?), first time I've seen that acro. smile.gif The above conditionals are fun to think about, but I'd rather they burn the money on the next big thing, OLED. Also (alas), none of that rectifies the matter of diminishing quality with viewing angles
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