Your Predictions: WHICH of the following emissive displays (OLED / Crystal LED / Quantum Dot /...  

The only one that will probably ever exist is OLED, so I voted for that.

Are laser TV panels emissive tech?

By the time OLED costs below $3K, QLED might be here, and be cheaper.

No.

I'll bet you a $3000 TV that doesn't happen.

How come people typically read "might" and think "will"? :-)

Let's try this again, since somehow it was unclear to some of you...

VTMS: "By the time OLED is $3000, QLED might be here and cheaper."

Rogo: "I say it will not be here, let alone cheaper. I am willing to place a wager of $3000 on this. I am suggesting we make the wager in the form of a $3000 TV since the topic of discussion is $3000 TVs."

Rogo: "Furthermore, if you'd like my take on this even more explicitly, I don't believe we will see a Quantum-Dot anything TV of any kind anytime soon. In fact, I think Nanophotonica is one of the companies that puts out press releases, not products. It will never develop anything based on anything."

Face it--by the time OLED gets cheap we'll be looking at years of the horror story of LCD domination!!!

LCD was INFERIOR and LCD won!

Oh, wow, so you think that Quantum-Dot TV of any shape and size will not be here by 2016?

Correct. No one will be building such a thing, thus you will not be buying such a thing.

If you have some good intel otherwise, please do share.

From what I can see, there is one company hyping the technology with zero OEM interest to back them.

with todays oled news, can i change my vote?

Quantum Dot is a fundamentally better technology so it will be worked on. And, in case you didn't notice, tons of research is already being done on quantum dots in non-display contexts. This tide will raise many boats. As a veteran futurist, I'm looking at much bigger picture than current OEM support and it's obvious to me that, inevitably, there are going to be better options than OLED, which offered too little, too late, and will be officially dead in few years, as far as tv space is concerned. I had a thread here about dead-ness of OLED years ago. :-)

I'm not entirely sure QLED will actually happen in several years, though, not because of OLED, but because there might be something even better than QLED in 2016.

I'm actually starting to think that all these flat panel technologies could be rendered rapidly irrelevant by the imminent dawn of compelling VR, beginning next year. In 2016, it's quite possible people who come to forums like these won't be even bothering to turn on their flat panels anymore, let alone upgrading them, especially since manufacturers will not see good enough reasons to make new ones. Now, only in that case OLED can become more relevant and here to stay, for the next few years, in the sub-7-inch space, that is. :-)
Edited by vtms - 12/18/12 at 5:37pm

I find the first part of that belief debatable/questionable/unknowable. The second part, I find naive.
In display technology history, there are not many boats that ever surface. Any typically, one boat type comes along to sink all the others.
Interesting. I'm a "veteran futurist" and have long been skeptical of OLED. Heck, I've explained why at decade's end, LCD is still going to be ahead of OLED in total display-market penetration. What I don't think is going to happen, however, is something that hasn't even been commercialized at any size -- or even demoed -- is going to be important this decade. There is no precedent for that happening. There is a lot of precedent, however, for people believing it will happen "just a few years from now".
Yea, no. That's not the way display tech gets developed.
Augmented reality is coming. Virtually reality? Please. No content, no applications, no interest, no enabling technologies. Otherwise, your prediction is fully spot-on. VR was going to take over more than a decade ago... Then it, well, never happened. We like our video. thanks. We're apparently not even especially interested in a 3-D version of it, as evidenced by terrible sales of 3-D content across media.

The second part is a fact. The first part is obviously debatable. Everything is debatable. It's just some things make more sense than others.
LEDs. Futurist of technology or just display technology? Actually, it's been demoed. It's in the earliest stages now, though, yes. And I never changed my mind about OLED being dead even in light of Samsung and LG promising 55-inch models. Well, you must not be well-informed, then. Google Oculus Rift. After that, consider the very likely possibility of 4K panel (maybe even OLED) inside 2nd or 3rd generation of this thing. That's where the action is now, forget about flat panels. A year ago, I was somewhat where you are now, thinking AR before VR and maybe in 2017 if everything goes well. Well, these days, it's quite obvious that VR is coming fast, and, stunningly, faster than AR, which, turns out, might be more tricky to implement than VR. All that will still only serve as merely a catalyst to what's about to come by the end of the decade. In 2020s will wil all laugh at the fact we actually watched video on these flat, bulky, glassy things. :-)
Edited by vtms - 12/19/12 at 5:54am

vtms, I'll take the bet on VR vs. AR in the 2020s. I doubt there will be much -- if any -- home virtual reality. It's a non-priority in next-gen consoles, a non-priority among leading tech companies (CE included) and makes staring at your smartphone social by comparison -- never mind the hideous equipment.

I've never seen a Quantum LED demo, never heard of one shown publicly, never heard of a display company talking about one. Therefore, it hasn't been demoed in any way that will lead to commercialization.

Again, discontinuous stuff does happen, just not often. Ask yourself when the last important consumer electronics product came out that was built from a non-industry incumbent that wasn't already a really rich company. To be honest, I'm not sure of the answer, but I suspect it might be Apple II or Atari 2600, both of which were from 1977.
Edited by rogo - 12/19/12 at 12:41pm

Coming soon (2013-2016) in videogames...game console (next XBox)...movie viewing...Mobile application usage...professional and Institutional usage and applications. This has been discussed and eschewed quite a bit in the gaming forums of AVS under HTPC Gaming and XBox "Next Generation Thread"

http://oculusrift.org/oculus-rift-virtual-reality-headset/

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/ingame/groundbreaking-oculus-rift-virtual-reality-glasses-delayed-1C7308452

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1523379957/oculus-rift-step-into-the-game/posts/357600

http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/ingame/groundbreaking-oculus-rift-virtual-reality-glasses-delayed-1C7308452#/technology/ingame/get-behind-scenes-oculus-rift-931087

http://www.oculusvr.com/

http://www.pcgamesn.com/article/oculus-rift-make-virtual-reality-gaming-affordable-reality

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=tJoi2A2566U&NR=1

XBOX:
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/382897/xbox-720-the-14-game-changing-features-of-the-next-xbox/
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/335369/xbox-720-has-wii-u-touchscreen-controller-report/?site=cvg

And yes...even Porn
http://newswire.xbiz.com/view.php?id=157755

Right, so your argument is that some Kickstarter project is the future of gaming even though the '"14 game changing features of the next xbox" aren't virtual reality?

Please.

And these touchscreen controllers are as far from virtual reality as imaginable. Is there anything less immersive than staring at a little screen then looking up at a bigger screen then switching back?

Kinect, I had hoped, was somewhere moving us toward VR. Instead, it's "freeing" -- I love it -- to an extent. But it's so inaccurate right now, it's also frustrating.

Rogo:

Nope...That is not what I am saying at all. I was mostly responding to your comment about "No content, no applications, no interest, no enabling technologies". What I am also suggesting is that a lot of very smart people on the Dev side of the videogame community, technology sector and movie industry are excited and supporting development of this technology. Sony has developed a similar device..and launching it in 2013-2014. Albeit not as promising as the Oculus Rift design IMO. And Microsoft is developing different approaches to achieve similar experiences in larger spaces. My point is the VR boat has decidedly left the dock much sooner than most of us thought. Certainly me. The other thing we need to consider is that the Defense Department has used classified versions of VR simulations for over a decade already. And the serious technology like OR is just winding its way into consumer applications. My curiosity is the exact same as vtms and tgm1024 on this one. I am more interested in what it can become over 2-4 generations of design and technology improvements than the seeming clumsiness of the initial designs. I certainly prefer the Oculus Rift and Sony approaches over the Microsoft approach for right now with the glasses, video walls and Kinect.That involves too much jumping around in a living room for my tastes. But I could definitely see Microsoft's approach having huge B2B commercial potential in markets like Health and Fitness clubs...Athletic training systems and simulations and etc.

Over a decade ago...no one thought every kid would have a cell phone and we all would be streaming movies, games and all kind of apps through them. It's not a very big leap to go one step farther with VR and vision kids and people on the go (Airplanes & etc) plugging such a device into those mobile gadgets for an immersive Big screen experience in a very small package. Or people with very small living spaces enjoying a perceptual experience close to IMAXX sitting on their couch in their apartments. I think the potential for this is bigger than any of us realize if the technology works. And can be made even lighter...more comfortable and less obtrusive. Even though OR has made huge strides over the initial prototype in Post 19 above.

All big things start in very small packages. VR will be no exception. I'd say the market potential is much greater for VR viewership growth ala Oculus Rift type of designs over Big Huge 65" plus displays in every household.

LOL. It seems you went out of your way to post the most ridiculous picture of the prototype that exists on the internet. :-) Even the current prototypes look much better, not to mention what the consumer version will look like. But it's not too much of a leap of faith to think these things will look like Ray Bans by the 3rd generation, at least as far as the "viewer" flavor of the technology goes (for movies and TV), because VR will require goggles to block out light.

I'll happily take that VR over AR bet in the 2020s. Well, VR and AR are actually going to be housed in a single device anyway, so I'm not sure how I'd prove that I won. :-) Well, I know the answer and not just one. First, were you familiar with the state of digital film back in 2007? Well, the film still was the only game in town and cameras would cost into hundreds of thousands. Then comes Red out of nowhere and, in 2012, you could make a real-deal motion picture with a 4K camera for $10K. Also, remember what the smartphones pre-2007 looked like. Then came iPhone and revolutionized the industry. And, it's clear to me that Oculus Rift might be even more revolutionary than iPhone.

Additionally, realize that Oculus Rift is not going to be a single VR device for the next decade. Sony continues to work on it, there are other smaller companies too, but you just know Apple is going to get in this game very soon as they are now deep in the gaming business as well as TV and Movie business. Yes, I can't wait to see what Apple does with this technology, because they always jump in after others have made 1st gen. mistakes. They will do it, just watch. They have no choice, actually, and neither does Microsoft, btw.

2013 could really be major for these paradigm-shifting devices in CE world. Highlights:
1. Oculus Rift, ushering VR that's the real deal, not just hype. Finally, 3D done the right way, little latency already, sufficient FOV, potentially OLED panel.
2. Leap Motion, redefining the whole idea of interfacing with electronics. (could be combined with Oculus Rift)
3. Apple known to be working on some device that will revolutionize TV space. (combine all 3 together, Apple-style)

Next year should be very interesting.
Edited by vtms - 12/19/12 at 6:21pm

Yeah, that is a bizarre choice of a promotional image. I guess they were going for that coveted nerd street-cred there. :-)
Oh, thanks, I was there right with you, buddy. :-) Not sure about lenses, or if we should bother with something primitive like that, unless you have some info for me, other than that recent LCD contact lens, but, yeah, let's just skip to ocular implants and beyond. Yesterday I was reading about research about how you could avoid implants altogether and just inject nanotubes and guide them to interface with relevant neural network ports, so no surgery needed, and you could have in/out channels to all sensory modalities at magnitudes higher resolutions than now. The inevitable march toward Vertebrane (google Marshall Brain article about it; what fun) has begun. As good as Oculus Rift will be, it will only serve as catalyst for Vertebrane tech. But, we're definitely looking at 2020s here, mostly due to FDA approval process.

That's exactly right. I'm wondering how an average viewer will choose between 2nd gen. Oculus Rift vs. 65-inch flat panel experience and, I believe most will choose the former for several reasons, with cost being the main determinant making people's choice for them. These huge, bulky and energy inefficient panels will continue to cost thousands, whereas OR is being estimated at $300. Plus you get portability, VR, 3D done right, and an IMAX+ screen. They just need to make this more comfortable, lighter, more fashionable, and put OLED 4K+ panel inside. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for Apple, btw. And I think it can be done because, what I find most amazing about this, is how simple the design is as it's pretty much ski goggles on top of a single 6-inch panel with optics attached. With 651ppi 2.3-inch panels already existing in the world, it's pretty obvious that 2nd or 3rd generation of this design could be incredible.

It's a double-edged sword, always, isn't it? Damn it. I guess we need to find ways to make it more secure, with built-in failsafes.

I just cannot even begin to explain how few people are willing to don VR headgear. I can less explain the maximum time limit people are willing to wear said headgear even if you get them in it.

The idea this is going to become mass-market appealing is beyond far-fetched to me. Far, far beyond.

Oh, and Apple's TV project has no VR component of any kind.