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Poll Results: Your Predictions: WHICH of the following emissive displays (OLED / Crystal LED / Quantum Dot / Other) will be FIRST below $3000 for 55"?

 
  • 63% (23)
    OLED
  • 33% (12)
    Crystal LED
  • 2% (1)
    Quantum Dot
  • 0% (0)
    Other
36 Total Votes  
post #91 of 121
Virtual Reality and 3D are gimmick garbage that doesn't do the general consumer any favors. Now if these techs serves some other purpose for medical, military or science than so be it.

I can't believe plasma researchers never bothered to seek how they could compete with LCD in terms of mid-range and entry level sizes for their panels. Without sacrificing the quality. Oh well, when no consideration is made for the entry level people you lose.
post #92 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

Sure, if you consider sharing your personal distaste for VR as an "argument" for why VR will fail, then, of course, you've won. With this strategy, you will, of course, win all the arguments you'll ever have, no matter the logic or facts. :-)

Actually, we've already gotten past this. My personal distaste for it is irrelevant. But my personal compass isn't often far off. My dislike for 3-D in the home, for example, has mirrored the market very well. The technology is a flat out failure. Enthusiasts like it, but it's going absolutely nowhere, has done nothing to increase TV sales (they are dropping) and is on its way to becoming one of history's footnotes if things don't turn around soon,.
Quote:
You've shown nothing yet to suggest why VR will fail. "Chicken-and-egg" problem was a problem back in early days of HD and, look, there's HD everywhere now. How did that happen? :-) And so will VR be everywhere too in few years because, if there's value in something, people want it and will get it eventually, despite early obstacles. That's how the world works. I guess you're the kind of person who must see VR succeed to admit you were totally wrong about it, probably as early as in 2014. I'll talk to you then.

I've done a ton to prove why it's going to fail. You've done zero to suggest otherwise.

We should talk about HD and how it's entirely different. There, the chicken-and-egg problem was solved because (a) existing broadcast TV was abjectly terrible -- the "solution" of HD was gigantically superior (b) broadcasters was handed spectrum for free and failed to come up with better uses for it despite trying really hard (c) there was a synergy between broadcasters and manufacturers, both of whom needed each other's cooperation to make HD succeed (d) there were billion of dollars to be made if it was pulled off.

Absolutely none of this is true with respect to VR.

Otherwise, it's certainly going to happen. One think we can be absolutely certain of is that home VR penetration in the U.S. will not 1% by 2014. But thanks for your prediction. We can understand you are an enthusiast and not a pundit.
post #93 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by homogenic View Post

Virtual Reality and 3D are gimmick garbage that doesn't do the general consumer any favors.
Whether or not you in particular like it, the bottom line is if the public will buy the product. Not any undefined concept of "favors".

Quote:
I can't believe plasma researchers never bothered to seek how they could compete with LCD in terms of mid-range and entry level sizes for their panels.
(???????????)You lost me there.
post #94 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Well, you have mentioned it. I'm not sure I did.
Certainly, running toward paranoia.
That's false. Every decent real-estate web site has 360-degree views of rooms. Sorry, they do and have for more than a decade. And, no, stop parsing my argument inaccurately, You made the false claim that photos can be glammed up but VR tours would be accurate. Let's just admit that's ludicrous.
Again, this is how "technophiles" fix problems that don't exist. You can already weed out properties just fine with existing listings and their existing 360 degree photo panoramas. And, in fact, you can weed out most listings with a 2-d photo.
Again, you've set up a fake problem and "solved" it. You've managed to spend an extra 100 minutes "visiting" these properties in virtual reality, denying yourself some number of real-world visits where you find out that the corner is loaded with homeless people, or there's amazing restaurants nearby, or, wow, this place has a nice view... but you "saved" so much time and got to look at more properties. You've overloaded your choice matrix, which often fails to help people (See, "The Paradox of Choice" for more) and experienced more places in an entirely fake manner.

This is getting too twisted for me sorry. You claimed that I made the statement that VR obviates a visit, when I didn't. You claimed that the result is to look at more properties when I've been extremely clear that it allows you to use an additional tool to consider more homes and then weed them down to the same number of visits you have time for. Then you claim that it overloads your choice matrix, when the point is about HOW to BEST minimize that choice matrix. You keep repeating points with increasing anger as if that somehow makes your initial points more cogent and better establishes your authority. I just deleted an entire page of one by one responses and realized that all the points were already made, and that I now had to deal with ever newly inventive misinterpretations of what I said. You claim I'm setting up a fake problem and solved it, when I didn't, it's a discussion of the problem itself with the part you're completely missing---why additional information helps. And I'm not even going to wander further into this because it'll beg that I meet your insulting hyperbole with some of my own. Merry Christmas Rogo. Rant on.
post #95 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

Sure, if you consider sharing your personal distaste for VR as an "argument" for why VR will fail, then, of course, you've won. With this strategy, you will, of course, win all the arguments you'll ever have, no matter the logic or facts. :-)
You should not have softened your reply to him with a smiley face.
post #96 of 121
No, tgm, my point is you claim VR is going to catch on because of a real-estate application that I claim doesn't exist. I have outlined a multitude of reasons why the real-estate application is irrelevant, unnecessary, incremental, not superior to existing solutions, very expensive, etc. You have rebutted absolutely none of that.

And it's unimportant, people buy homes nearly never. The idea that a real-estate application is going to make VR catch on is like suggesting everyone will require a high-ground-clearance truck because "we all want to go to off-roading parks".

But I really don't care. You can buy your Oculus Rift when (if?) it becomes available for consumer use. Call me when its at Best Buy with a killer app I need.
post #97 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

No, tgm, my point is you claim VR is going to catch on because of a real-estate application that I claim doesn't exist.
I didn't say that nor imply it! "VR is going to catch on because of a real-estate application"? WHAT?????
VTMS said this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms 
That will be such a killer application for real estate market too. A property on sale will be scanned and software will convert it into VR so that people browsing for houses online will be able to walk around inside without travelling to the actual location.
To which you responded with this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo 
See, this is an example where people who love technology (most of us) think that something technology will enable is a killer app, when it basically isn't.

Nearly no one is buying a house they haven't been in, seen the street, etc.
and I pointed out where I thought you misunderstood vtms
Quote:
I don't think he was saying that they would never visit the houses that made the cut. Of course they would. I think he's saying that it would improve the weeding out process, which right now is far far far too involved with shlepping my carcass over to the site. How many times have pictures just been too rosey? The "Preliminary property screening" would be dramatically improved and produce a far better list of houses to then go visit.
...to which you began your rant.

Congratulations rogo, you've now manage to twist EVEN THE INITIAL PREMISE into "VR is going to catch on because of a real-estate application" (of COURSE VR is not going to catch on because of that), and then frame that as what you were reacting to when your reply didn't even say that, and then recently frame all this as if it was I who was altering the argument.
post #98 of 121
Great, so now we've established that VR is not going to catch on because of anything, having ruled out real estate as a relevant application.

Forgive me for grouping the two of you into one argument. I see no cogent points in favor of any sort of VR groundswell, so I made the mistake of just putting the two non-arguments together. "My bad" as the saying goes.

Now that we've ruled out the relevance of VR as an important emerging technology, perhaps we can return to a discussion of flat-panel technology.
post #99 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Great, so now we've established that VR is not going to catch on because of anything
That's funny. Who's "we"? Also, I didn't see anything "established," other than the fact that you have aversion to VR. I've given reasons for why VR has value and where the future of consumer electronics is heading based on my knowledge of future and market trends. Frankly, that's all you need to know to understand where we're going. You seem not informed enough (equating current 3D tech with VR proves that) and not willing to extrapolate the obvious, even if shown all the necessary pieces of relvant info to connect the dots to realize VR revolution is imminent. Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, say, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone and how this will lead to continued marginalization of flat panels.
Edited by vtms - 12/26/12 at 7:15pm
post #100 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

You should not have softened your reply to him with a smiley face.
No, I merely showed my appreciation for the comedic value contained in that delightful mix of blatant strawmen arguments, stubborn myopia, and displays of ego overcompensation. :-)
post #101 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

That's funny. Who's "we"? Also, I didn't see anything "established," other than the fact that you have aversion to VR. I've given reasons for why VR has value and where the future of consumer electronics is heading based on my knowledge of future and market trends. Frankly, that's all you need to know to understand where we're going. You seem not informed enough (equating current 3D tech with VR proves that) and not willing to extrapolate the obvious, even if shown all the necessary pieces of relvant info to connect the dots to realize VR revolution is imminent. Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, say, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone and how this will lead to continued marginalization of flat panels.
In dedication to this post and thread:

biggrin.gif
post #102 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

In dedication to this post and thread:
(video)biggrin.gif
HAHAHAHAHA.......
post #103 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

That's funny. Who's "we"? Also, I didn't see anything "established," other than the fact that you have aversion to VR. I've given reasons for why VR has value and where the future of consumer electronics is heading based on my knowledge of future and market trends. Frankly, that's all you need to know to understand where we're going. You seem not informed enough (equating current 3D tech with VR proves that) and not willing to extrapolate the obvious, even if shown all the necessary pieces of relvant info to connect the dots to realize VR revolution is imminent. Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, say, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone and how this will lead to continued marginalization of flat panels.

Yeah, I'll definitely take that bet on some cockamamie VR headset overtaking the iPhone in 2014.

Consider that "established".
post #104 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

In dedication to this post and thread:biggrin.gif
Not everyday one gets to hear a song as awful as this. Nice find. Anyone got past 1:30s of this? :-)
post #105 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Yeah, I'll definitely take that bet on some cockamamie VR headset overtaking the iPhone in 2014.
Consider that "established".
I said AR/VR HMD by Apple in 2014. You're on.
Edited by vtms - 12/27/12 at 7:56pm
post #106 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

Not everyday one gets to hear a song as awful as this. Nice find. Anyone got past 1:30s of this? :-)
It's an acquired taste. ;-) A 90s grunge pop sensation, they were...my fondness has waned in more recent years admittedly.
post #107 of 121
dupe
post #108 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

I said AR/VR HMD by Apple in 2014. You're on.

You said, "Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone." I mean its on this page. If you want to back off it, back off it. Don't pretend you didn't say it. rolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gif
post #109 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

You said, "Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone." I mean its on this page. If you want to back off it, back off it. Don't pretend you didn't say it. rolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gif
What now? I didn't back off anything. I merely corrected your earlier misquote which you misinterpreted (again) as my attempt to change my original claim.

I do stand by what I wrote originally. Is that clear enough for you? Read that again and try to understand the words that were written inside the quotes. Then you can talk to me about it in two years from now, ok? Thanks.
Edited by vtms - 12/28/12 at 5:46am
post #110 of 121
Oh, and I'm not the only one who thinks Apple HMD is the next big thing that will start replacing iPhone and a smartphone in general.
http://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Apple-Is-Quietly-Working-To-Destroy-The-iPhone-4087175.php
And I'll add that future flat panel sales will be affected by this too, which is why this is a relevant topic for this thread and forum.
post #111 of 121
Thread Starter 
Rogo, please stop this. Here's the exchange between YOU and VTMS:
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms 
Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, say, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone and how this will lead to continued marginalization of flat panels.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo 
Yeah, I'll definitely take that bet on some cockamamie VR headset overtaking the iPhone in 2014.
....so here vtms makes sure that you understand, it's not "some cockamamie VR headset" in general, he's talking specifically about Apple's AR/VR HMD. What's wrong with that????
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms 
I said AR/VR HMD by Apple in 2014. You're on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

You said, "Ok, then, I guess I'll quote your statements of "idiotic" VR in 2014 when, Apple VR/AR HMD becomes bigger than iPhone." I mean its on this page. If you want to back off it, back off it. Don't pretend you didn't say it.

(HUH ?????????) I personally don't think there's anything other than breathing that can overtake the iPhone (unfortunately), but Rogo, get the argument straight.
Edited by tgm1024 - 12/28/12 at 6:05am
post #112 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Your Predictions: *Regardless of resolution*, Which (not when) of the following emissive displays
  • OLED

I have a Samsung GT 7.7 with Super AMOLED display and I reckon it is amazing. So can not wait till there is one in 55in.
post #113 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by theslydog View Post

I have a Samsung GT 7.7 with Super AMOLED display and I reckon it is amazing. So can not wait till there is one in 55in.
OMG, thank God for a return to non-flaming! Thank you!
post #114 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Rogo, please stop this. Here's the exchange between YOU and VTMS:
....so here vtms makes sure that you understand, it's not "some cockamamie VR headset" in general, he's talking specifically about Apple's AR/VR HMD. What's wrong with that????

I want to be precisely clear. The specific Apple AR/VR HMD he is talking about qualifies as "some cockamamie VR headset".

Another thing is, as the late, great Ronald Reagan used to say, "there you go again...."

The "smartphone killing" computerized glasses Business Insider is talking about and Google is working on and Apple might be working on are augmented reality products, not virtual-reality products and are not any kind of threat to the flat-panel industry. They are about information overlaid or adjacent to the real world. Well, I should clarify, they are as much of a threat to flat panels as smartphones are in general because they will likely have video display capability (as smartphones do). But the are not going to have as good video, ironically enough, because they are not being designed to shut you out of the world.

Part of the reason this concept is appealing -- the "computerized glasses" -- is that it's about allowing people to interact with data and information without staring down at the screen all the time. It's more Robocop, less The Matrix. More fancy Star Wars binoculars, less Caprica night clubs.

I know you see no distinction between these things, but there is a massive one. It's primarily the difference between people in basements wearing Oculus Rift goggles and people interacting out in the real world, but it's also far more subtle. I realize all attempt to explain both distinctions are -- at this point -- lost.
post #115 of 121
"Great Ronald Reagan"? That explains a lot.;-) Anyway, yes, right now VR and AR are being considered two separate devices, but, if AR HMD's job is to display anything, then it shouldn't be hard to imagine AR HMD being able to display 3D videos too, and if so, then it will be able to do some crude VR as well. So, very soon, you'll be dealing with a device that does a little bit of everything, quickly blurring the line between AR and VR devices. Therefore, we should look at HMD as a hub device and AR and VR as its functions. There will be dedicated VR HMDs for gamers, of course, that will do VR stunningly well, but it's not like AR HMD rules out 3D functions. That's why I said "Apple's VR/AR HMD is going to start replacing iPhone," not "Apple's VR HMD" or "Apple's AR HMD." (iSight is my prediction for the name of the device, BTW :-))

Why is this going to replace smartphones? Let me give two examples off the top of my head that will compel the public to ditch their smartphones forever: totally hands-free operation/browsing and personal 3D video recording. With eye tracking and a camera for each eye, both these applications will be possible, not to mention looking at 100-inch screen, not 5-inch one. Flat panel watching will be increasingly done on HMDs too, it's just a matter of time before quality is good enough. Sony's OLED HMD proves we are not far away from reaching that level. Put in 4K transparent OLEDs per eye (years away, I admit), good optics and you won't need another flat panel again.

"Sight" is a nice short film released recently about our inevitable AR/VR future. Obviously, these futuristic functions we see there will not be done with contacts, but with HMDs. Pay extra attention to how protagonist watches TV, which, I think is a particularly accurate depiction of how we will be doing our home watching in few years. Notice the absence of any flat panel on the wall. :-) I thought that was a nice touch. Here it is: http://vimeo.com/46304267
Edited by vtms - 12/28/12 at 9:50pm
post #116 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

"Great Ronald Reagan"? That explains a lot.;-)

Does it? Shows how little you know me.
Quote:
Anyway, yes, right now VR and AR are being considered two separate devices, but, if AR HMD's job is to display anything, then it shouldn't be hard to imagine AR HMD being able to display 3D videos too, and if so, then it will be able to do some crude VR as well. So, very soon, you'll be dealing with a device that does a little bit of everything, quickly blurring the line between AR and VR devices.

So now we have the "Frankendevice", bad at VR and 3D, but good at augmented reality, and that's going to usher in the VR era and kill off the flat panel. Got it.
Quote:
Therefore, we should look at HMD as a hub device and AR and VR as its functions. There will be dedicated VR HMDs for gamers, of course, that will do VR stunningly well, but it's not like AR HMD rules out 3D functions. That's why I said "Apple's VR/AR HMD is going to start replacing iPhone," not "Apple's VR HMD" or "Apple's AR HMD." (iSight is my prediction for the name of the device, BTW :-))

So I get why I want a "bad" video device for when I'm on a bus and want to catch up on some TV, although I think that goes on more in ads than in real life even still... I'm not really clear why I want a bad VR device on my cellphone.
Quote:
Why is this going to replace smartphones? Let me give two examples off the top of my head that will compel the public to ditch their smartphones forever: totally hands-free operation/browsing and personal 3D video recording. With eye tracking and a camera for each eye, both these applications will be possible, not to mention looking at 100-inch screen, not 5-inch one. Flat panel watching will be increasingly done on HMDs too, it's just a matter of time before quality is good enough. Sony's OLED HMD proves we are not far away from reaching that level. Put in 4K transparent OLEDs per eye (years away, I admit), good optics and you won't need another flat panel again.

See, I'm a believer that some of this will happen, but there are points of confusion here. (1) You can't ditch the smartphone. The radio and associated battery will not fit in these goggles of yours anytime soon... years upon years. The goggles can serve as a display and camera for a while, but that's about it. (2) That's not a problem that goes away at home either (3) The "smartphone replacement" story is still augmented reality, not virtual reality. It's stuff on top of stuff, not virtual worlds. And "projected screens" are horrid. People hate this effect and have every time its been tried. It's not about display quality, it's about dizziness and fatigue. I know you believe it isn't, but it is.

Finally, while a lot of watching has moved to tablets, PCs, phones, I'd like to believe there is some room left for social viewing, that the living-room TV is not dead. The 240 million+ sold each year indicate this is still true. Your vision suggests this will change because of some technology that offers no apparent advantage but instead requires people to wear gear on their heads more or less all the time. Gear that outputs radio waves. Gear that requires a battery.
post #117 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vtms View Post

"Great Ronald Reagan"? That explains a lot.;-)
Wow, saw that response coming from a mile away. rolleyes.gif
post #118 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

Wow, saw that response coming from a mile away. rolleyes.gif
See? You're a crystal baller now too. :-)
Edited by vtms - 12/29/12 at 12:47am
post #119 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Does it? Shows how little you know me.
It does. It explains conservatism and fear of future and what's-right-for-me-is-right-for-the-rest attitude. No wonder you want to preserve the "social value" of watching on flat panels. Future generation won't care much about any of this. Just hand each person his or her own HMD. I'd argue that HMDs have a potential to bring more people together than your old flat panels.

Also, the battery and processing unit will be in a separate box that will fit in your pocket.
post #120 of 121
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I want to be precisely clear.
which is all vtms was doing

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo 
The specific Apple AR/VR HMD he is talking about qualifies as "some cockamamie VR headset".
THAT'S the point entirely, you completely botched what he was saying. vtms was clarifying the bet because he said something specific (Apple's VR/AR HMD) and you said "cockamamie VR headset" and he wanted to make sure you got what he said. And then "there you go again", confusing what he was saying by pretending that he was trying to somehow back away from his claim. He was doing no such thing. Re-read the dialog I just concatenated together for you above. You tried to invent an idea of him backing away from his statement when he did no such thing.

I personally don't care about the reality of this at all, no pun intended. It's not my bet. I don't see it overtaking the iPhone, I even joked about breathing not being able to overtake the iPhone, but that's not the point once you start this inventing crap all over again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo 
Another thing is, as the late, great Ronald Reagan used to say, "there you go again...."
It's not my bet! There you go again. This isn't about MY point at all! You're switching to save yourself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo 
The "smartphone killing" computerized glasses Business Insider is talking about and Google is working on and Apple might be working on are augmented reality products, not virtual-reality products and are not any kind of threat to the flat-panel industry. They are about information overlaid or adjacent to the real world. Well, I should clarify, they are as much of a threat to flat panels as smartphones are in general because they will likely have video display capability (as smartphones do). But the are not going to have as good video, ironically enough, because they are not being designed to shut you out of the world.
Part of the reason this concept is appealing -- the "computerized glasses" -- is that it's about allowing people to interact with data and information without staring down at the screen all the time. It's more Robocop, less The Matrix. More fancy Star Wars binoculars, less Caprica night clubs.
I know you see no distinction between these things, but there is a massive one. It's primarily the difference between people in basements wearing Oculus Rift goggles and people interacting out in the real world, but it's also far more subtle. I realize all attempt to explain both distinctions are -- at this point -- lost.
BULL. I even gave a building contractor example showing that I understand that. And yes, your word "subtle" only makes my point: there's more conceptually the same between AR and VR than you recognize even though the two have different roles. But. I. Don't. Care. About. That. Argument.

And good grief. Back to my point to save you? Nice try. Ok. Make that point again. I see it, I recognize it, and I'm ok with it. However, all the true differences aside, I do see a convergence of the two in the public's eye, like I said here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 
The term "Augmented Reality" (AR) is what get's thrown around the most with Sony headsets. The two terms (AR & VR) are colliding in my opinion, and I'll go so far as to say that they're soon to be synonyms to the public.
TO THE PUBLIC. And I gave reasons why they'll see this: The images drawn, and seeing what's not there, with my contractor example.

I have no skin in the Apple game, but if Apple's putting both VR/AR abilities into a single HMD offering, then what I'm saying holds about these are soon to be synonyms to the public. I don't care if I'm right or wrong here, it's not the point of you picking a fight with vtms that wasn't even there.

YOU'RE RUNNING FROM YOUR MISTAKE WITH VTMS with this distraction back to me.
Edited by tgm1024 - 12/29/12 at 8:45am
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AVS › AVS Forum › Display Devices › Flat Panels General and OLED Technology › Your Predictions: WHICH of the following emissive displays (OLED / Crystal LED / Quantum Dot / Other) will be FIRST below $3000 for 55"?