Originally Posted by Ken Ross
Nothing but rumors thus far Wally. Some say that Sharp's 4K displays will, in effect, be the 2nd gen Elites. But Sharp is financially shaky, so who knows. Stay tuned.
The ICC-chipped 4K sets are the "new Elites" -- with $30,000+ prices. The "regular" 4K sets are going to be expensive enough, honestly, at $15K or so, that even there, they'll make the current Elite seem inexpensive. Maybe there's room for a "2nd gen Elite", but the line is already over-assorted without it.
Originally Posted by Ken Ross
Interesting read and hard to argue with some of Gary's points. I well remember the 720p vs 1080p tests with the higher contrast 720p winning out. Contrast is huge and should never be underestimated.
He may well be right about 1080p OLED winning out against 4K LED/LCD for the same reason. However we're still a relatively long way from OLED becoming practical in the home. I know with all the growing pains, manufacturing duds, discussions on longevity etc., I'd be reluctant to be one of the first to buy OLED...and I'm usually not afraid to be among the first.
4K LED/LCD is going to outsell OLED in the near- and medium-term. How do I know? The same way HDGuru should've known. One can just cut the price at will, one cannot. Also, one market is very competitive, one is not.
Originally Posted by greenland
I tend not to make predictions; but I have a feeling that Panasonic may surprise people by bringing OLED 4K to market in 2015. They are one of those companies that has a history of not over promising; like LG and Samsung have tended to do when demonstrating prototypes.
"Panasonic says that what makes its OLED panel better than any others is the printing technology used to make the display. This method is said to dramatically reduce costs of production, increase yield rates and make the displays more reliable. It works by printing a layer, which is then sandwiched between a backing layer and a transparent cathode placed on the top. This apparently improves the light output, and ensures there are no reflections.
Panasonic claims that its printing process scales very well. So there’s no reason you can’t print both 24 and 56-inch screens using the same technology. It also says there is very little wastage of the organic material, which is another way to reduce costs."
2015 feels soon to me, but perhaps that isn't impossible.. There is a multiplicity of issues, however.
- In the U.S., a 56" will be far too small as a flagship set. In other countries, it might be appropriate.
- The launch price for such a set would need to be less than $4000 by then.
- If Panasonic goes larger than 60", they will need a larger-than-8G fab to work with, which doesn't seem to exist yet. If they wish to "print" the substrates on a completely new roll-to-roll line, that would theoretically be doable with their tech, but not by 2015.
Originally Posted by tgm1024
I'm not so sure this isn't an apples and oranges comparison. Here are the questions that formed in me noggin as I read your post....if you know the answer to them I'd appreciate it:
- To what degree are we sure that IR on OLED is fixable the way it is on a plasma?
- And to what degree are the first 4 years of OLED going to be as sensitive to it as the first 4 years of plasma were?
- And further, is OLED helped by a conditioning break-in?
I can't address much of that, but I can tell you something. If you draw the distinction between "image retention", the temporary thing that is caused by residual voltage lying around and that eventually disappears on plasmas, and "burn in", which is a permanent differential wear, I doubt the former will occur on OLED. It might, but it seems less likely because the "charging" of pixels is almost entirely unrelated to the way it works on plasma.
The latter, however, is not "treatable" by "break-in". It's true that the wear curves might not be linear such that a small period of coddling might help mitigate the risk, but honestly, much of that is in the urban myth category and I doubt very much anyone has evidence it applies to OLED anyway.
What you need to know is "can OLED burn in over a reasonable number of hours?" If the answer is yes, it will not be "fixable" the way image retention is on a plasma nor by "break in".