Originally Posted by Ron Temple
Of course he wins or there wouldn't be sagas about the dude
I agree with your analysis but, man, it sure was prosaic.
That said, he's [Ragnar] not in very great shape at the mo. The Earl's probably got 100 guys and Rag's friends have been getting picked off. We'll see.
Originally Posted by oink
True, but isn't there a tradition to follow the strongest leader
It is true that people tend to follow those who they perceive to be the strongest leader. I can make an argument for Earl Haraldson, despite his treacherousness, because he still has far more soldiers, weapons, and ships than Ragnar or anybody else who might try to topple him. On the other hand, Ragnar has proved to be a charismatic leader, successful raider, and, most important of all, loyal to his supporters. Everybody in the earldom has to know that Earl Haraldson would betray them in a heartbeat if he thought doing so would be to his advantage. That might be enough to convince enough of the earl's supporters to come over to his side to give Ragnar the numbers he would need to unseat the earl.
An alternative might be for Ragnar to get a ship, recruit a crew, go to England, and stay there for the foreseeable future. As hostile as the Saxons would certainly be, they couldn't pose a bigger threat than the earl.