Originally Posted by ALMA
AUO made only the TFT-substrate. OLED substrate is from Sumitomo.
What Slacker said... See above... "OLED substrate" doesn't even make much sense.
Of course you can,
Of course you can't.
All mass produced LCD-TV´s before 2006 came from 5-6G plants.
How many of those were 55 inches and up? Oh right, basically zero. Back in 2005, on your 5-6G plants, LCD TVs were 11% of the world TV market. In other words, the entire capacity of the world LCD TV market -- using every manufacturer's 5 and 6G fabs -- was under 30 million units and they were essentially all tiny.
You cannot mass produce OLED TVs on a 6G fab. Anyone announcing plans around 6G fabs is not planning on mass production
but instead is piloting or planning on low volume production
which cannot, by its nature, meaningful drive lower production costs.
They can also converting an existing 8G line and you forget that OLED needs less raw materials than LCD (it´s cheaper to produce)
The evidence for that claim does not exist. OLED is far, far more expensive to produce than LCD in the actual world. Part of this is yield, part of this is a huge portion of the promised savings exist only in theory. Today, for example LTPS and IGZO backplanes are both far more expensive
to produce than a-Si. The idea that IGZO will ultimately be cheaper remains that: an idea.
and the worldwide TV market lies under 55",
And yet 100% of announced and demonstrated OLEDs with production plans/hints/goals are 55" an up. Go figure.
In the first two years it´s unimportant if mass produced in 6G or 8G process. Only important in the first years is availability of OLED in the premium TV market to replace high end LCD-TV´s for the same price (5000€ for 55-65").
55" LCD TVs are $1000 in the U.S. for a midrange Samsung. The most expensive model is around $2500. The OLED is $9000. The gap there is so huge that 3 price cuts of 30% are needed to get OLEDs to only be 20% more expensive
than those LCDs are today. And those LCDs may well be cheaper in the next couple of years because (a) idle capacity has a funny way of leading to ruinous price competition (b) the Chinese are coming -- hard.
So when we talk about the "first few years of OLED availability" we rule out this year, where essentially availability is not really relevant to 99.999% of TV buyers. Next year? Well, we'll see what pricing looks like. By 2015, things start to get a bit more interesting, but whether volumes and price constitute anything resembling a meaningful fraction of the high-end TV market remains to be seen.
(Incidentally, for me, a benchmark is this: "OLED Year 1" as a real thing is when it takes 10% of the premium TV market. The exact size of that market is something only the manufacturers can say for sure, but it's very approximately 10% of 10% of the TV market, or about 2.5 million units. So if OLED crosses 250K next year, I'd reasonably call that year 1, even though I don't see pricing as being reasonable for 99.99% of TV buyers. There are questions as to whether OLED economics will really work long term if it's only a premium product -- and statements from LG and Samsung about volume goals suggest it won't -- so the price really needs to get below $2000, not just to $3000. But there is time for that.)