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How soon before 4k projectors cost $5-6k?

post #1 of 72
Thread Starter 
I am considering replacing my current JVC RS1 projector, but I have been reading about the industry moving from HD to 4k.
How soon will it be before 4k projectors can be had for, say $5-6k?
With a new bulb I could wait another year before replacing my current projector, but if the time for the 4k prices to come down to that level is 2 years down the road, then I might consider replacing it now. Any ideas?

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post #2 of 72
If I had to guess CEDIA 2015?


Edit: MAYBE this year after heavy discounts(something with an MSRP of $10k clearance down to $5-6k)



I really have no clue:p

but with no 4k Blu Ray format yet I can't imagine any cheap 4k projectors until 4k Blu Ray
Edited by mr stroke - 1/15/14 at 4:14pm
post #3 of 72
Or even 2016 or 17. And who's to say 8K projectors won't rear their heads by then to just jack with your mind? eek.gif

If only I had an accurate crystal ball ! wink.gif
post #4 of 72
I think a better question is when will a 4K pj have the same overall PQ at the same price as the new JVC (2K) pj's.
post #5 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Peer View Post

Or even 2016 or 17. And who's to say 8K projectors won't rear their heads by then to just jack with your mind? eek.gif

If only I had an accurate crystal ball ! wink.gif

Time to get it professionally calibrated. Be sure the equipment the calibrator uses is traceable to NIST and has been calibrated within the last year by the NSA at Area 51.
post #6 of 72
I think a big issue with 4k PJ's will be optics. You just need good ones for that fine of a pixel structure. Since glass is glass and the process to make them is pretty much stagnent, I have this sinking feeling we won't see that any time soon because of a higher floor price. If they did bring it down, it wouldn't be good. It is like getting a 20 MP cell phone camera and using it in a dark room. 20MP doesn't mean crap without a good optics or sensor.

But, I could be totally whacky on this one.
post #7 of 72
Until there is another source for good 4K content, besides Sony, there is not as much incentive for other companies to build 4K projectors. Since 4K BD's and 4K BD players do not exist yet and may not exist until next year, I would not hold my breath for a less than $6,000 4K projector this year. Currently the only 4K projectors are the Sony's and you are not going to find them anywhere near that price point.
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post #8 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trepidati0n View Post

I think a big issue with 4k PJ's will be optics. You just need good ones for that fine of a pixel structure.

Nope; even cheap pj's have lenses good enough to clearly resolve the space between the pixels, which are about 1/16th their width (for DLP and LCOS).
post #9 of 72
The Sony 4K VPL-VW500ES can already be purchased in Japan for around $6500. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similarly priced 4K projector available in the U.S. before the end of this year.
post #10 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by reanimator View Post

The Sony 4K VPL-VW500ES can already be purchased in Japan for around $6500. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similarly priced 4K projector available in the U.S. before the end of this year.

I agree. Sony can only get away with ripping off U.S consumers for one year.
post #11 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by reanimator View Post

The Sony 4K VPL-VW500ES can already be purchased in Japan for around $6500. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similarly priced 4K projector available in the U.S. before the end of this year.

I don't expect that. The Sony is not going to get down to that price, since that is way below dealer cost. CEDIA 2014 will bring out some more 4K projectors, but they will not be at that price point. If the street price is $6,500, then the MSRP will be a fair amount higher. If JVC makes one it will be the top of the line model. Sim2 and DPI will probably have one, but at much higher price points. Epson, Benq and Optoma usually do not have products at (8K+) MSRP. That is not their market. I just do not see where a projector at that price point can come from. At least, not for next year. Now in two or three years, I see it as a possibility.
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post #12 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by noah katz View Post

Nope; even cheap pj's have lenses good enough to clearly resolve the space between the pixels, which are about 1/16th their width (for DLP and LCOS).

And that you think is the only special criterion for 4K lenses that perhaps some 2K lenses might not meet but the existing JVC 2k lenses do? I just don't agree with that but it is fruitless to try and engage on that with you. I just don't understand why Sony put so much design and money into the lens for the 500/600 let alone the 1000/1100. Pretty stupid of them I would think you think?
Edited by mark haflich - 1/16/14 at 6:53am
post #13 of 72
My crystal ball guess is we will see 4K UHD projectors with a street price at (or below) $6K announced in 2015 and perhaps shipping by late 2015 or early 2016. The first of the consumer 4K UHD DLP projectors should arrive in that time frame, and probably also 3LCD models. Will these entry-level 4K UHD projectors have the optical performance of a VW1000/VW1100 (or perhaps the VW500/VW600) - NO. However they will have full bandwidth HDMI 2.0 inputs and will be more fully compatible with the long-term optional 4K UHD formats and features (as will future Sony models).


.
Edited by Ron Jones - 1/16/14 at 7:00am
post #14 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark haflich View Post

And that you think is the only special criterion for 4K lenses that perhaps some 2K lenses might not meet but the existing JVC 2k lenses do? I just don't agree with that but it is fruitless to try and engage on that with you. I just don't understand why Sony put so much design and money into the lens for the 500/600 let alone the 1000/1100. Pretty stupid of them I would think you think?

So I'm curious, what areas does a "2K" lens fail that the "4K" lens in the 500/1000 succeed?
post #15 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Jones View Post

My crystal ball guess is we will see 4K UHD projectors with a street price at (or below) $6K announced in 2015 and perhaps shipping by late 2015 or early 2016. The first of the consumer 4K UHD DLP projectors should arrive and probably also 3LCD models. Will these entry-level 4K UHD projectors have the optical performance of a VW1000/VW1100 (or VW500/VW600) - NO. However they will have full bandwidth HDMI 2.0 inputs and will be more fully compatible with the long-term optional 4K UHD formats and features (as will future Sony models).

Now this I feel is at least a possibility, but I don't expect to see it at that price point with DLP. Right now the high end DLP chips are DC4 and those are reserved for the high end. I think the new chips will be reserved for the high end also. I think you are only going to be looking at 3LCD at the wanted price point.
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post #16 of 72
Hi,

maybe next year. Information coming from a Japanese forum (but I can't insert link, some "pictures" are not at all for young people) redface.gif:

" Expected of 4K-8K projector sales in the future and Sony deployment of 4K.

Launched at 1.68 million yen a consumer 4K projector VPL-VW1000ES the world's first at the end of 2011.

Release of VPL-VW500ES of 800,000 yen price as 4K low-end model first series to the end of 2013.

Release of VPL-VW600ES of 450,000 yen list price in 2014.
Launched at 1.68 million yen list price VPL-VW2000ES is evolution is a successor to the VW1000ES the same time.

Appearance of 4K content
No later than 2015 in 2014, was released a high-resolution version (4K Blu-ray) BD software.
Compression technology and the latest up-to-date storage used.

Released Top Model 700,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 350,000 and list price (VPL-VW800ES) the (VPL-HW100) in 2015.

Released Top Model 650,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 300,000 and list price (VPL-VW850ES) the (VPL-HW150) in 2016.
Start of 4K broadcasting

Released Top Model 600,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 250,000 and list price (VPL-VW900ES) the (VPL-HW200) in 2017.
97:
8K camera will be released from each manufacturer. Hollywood started the 8K digital photography. By 8K scan at the same time
Began production 8K.

Released Top Model 600,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 250,000 and list price (VPL-HW950ES) the (VPL-HW300) in 2018.

Released the world's first consumer 8K projector VPL-VW10000ES of 1.68 million yen list price in 2019.
It entered the era of 8K

In 2020 Super Hi-Vision (8K) test broadcast start.

Release of VPL-VW5000ES of 800,000 yen price as 8K low-end model first edition in 2021.

Release of VPL-VW6000ES of 450,000 yen list price in 2022.
Launched at 1.68 million yen list price VPL-VW20000ES is evolution is a successor to the VW10000ES the same time.
98:

Appearance of 8K content
No later than 2023 in 2022, was released ultra-high-resolution version (8K Blu-ray) BD software.
Compression technology and the latest up-to-date storage used.

Released Top Model 700,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 350,000 and list price (VPL-VW8000ES) the (VPL-HW1000) in 2023.

Released Top Model 650,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 300,000 and list price (VPL-VW8500ES) the (VPL-HW1500) in 2024.
This broadcast of 8K started in 2025

Released Top Model 600,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 250,000 and list price (VPL-VW9000ES) the (VPL-HW2000) in 2025.

Released Top Model 600,000 yen lower price model of ¥ 250,000 and list price (VPL-HW9500ES) the (VPL-HW3000) in 2026. "


If there is no mistake, this thread was written on 2012/10/09. I don't know if it's true or false, but currently, it's good until the 500ES (600ES in USA).

IMHO, the VPL-VW2000ES will be a 4K laser projector (as the Life Space UX).
Edited by Thebes - 1/16/14 at 7:56am
post #17 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark haflich View Post

And that you think is the only special criterion for 4K lenses that perhaps some 2K lenses might not meet but the existing JVC 2k lenses do? I just don't agree with that but it is fruitless to try and engage on that with you.

Perhaps that's why you, or anyone else, haven't even once tried to after I and others have made the above argument many times.

Care to try for once?

I'm not saying more $ doesn't buy a better lens, perhaps with less CA and higher ANSI CR via better, more expensive coatings.

I *am* saying that the resolution argument doesn't hold water.
post #18 of 72
Thread Starter 
Here is a picture file of the Panasonic 4k at work (photo taken with phone at CES about a week or so ago)
panasonic4k.jpeg 1963k .jpeg file
Edited by Nicoff - 1/16/14 at 11:33am
post #19 of 72
Thread Starter 
Here is the pic.
post #20 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by stanger89 View Post

So I'm curious, what areas does a "2K" lens fail that the "4K" lens in the 500/1000 succeed?

I want to know also
post #21 of 72
Quote:
My crystal ball guess is we will see 4K UHD projectors with a street price at (or below) $6K announced in 2015 and perhaps shipping by late 2015 or early 2016. The first of the consumer 4K UHD DLP projectors should arrive in that time frame, and probably also 3LCD models. Will these entry-level 4K UHD projectors have the optical performance of a VW1000/VW1100 (or perhaps the VW500/VW600) - NO. However they will have full bandwidth HDMI 2.0 inputs and will be more fully compatible with the long-term optional 4K UHD formats and features (as will future Sony models).

It is my understanding that there will not be a consumer 4K DLP projector ( unless 3 chip $ 50K - $ 80K projectors are your definition of " consumer " ). Only larger projectors with the larger DMD's. And that T. I. is planning on producing a smaller consumer projector 8K chip instead. Which is an interesting thought !
post #22 of 72
I'm in the same boat. It's time for an upgrade for me as my current projector, but I feel like we're on the cusp of new technology advancements...whether that's 4K or HDR or both is anybody's guess. It just feels like they've done about all that makes sense to invest time and money in as far 1080p projection tech goes, short of solid state light sources which still aren't to the stage to be practical and 'affordable' yet.

My guess is that Fall 2014 will bring Sony some competition in 4K offerings. That might be enough to bring prices down closer to $6K this year, but I don't think we'll see a real price war to bring them down to $5K or lower for another year or two beyond that.

4K content delivery technology is only now starting to settle with BD 4K maybe coming this year and certainly a format/codec war for 4K streaming this year. We're still very much in very early adopter (read that as overpaying for the tech advancements) territory.
post #23 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Peer View Post

It is my understanding that there will not be a consumer 4K DLP projector ( unless 3 chip $ 50K - $ 80K projectors are your definition of " consumer " ). Only larger projectors with the larger DMD's. And that T. I. is planning on producing a smaller consumer projector 8K chip instead. Which is an interesting thought !

Not what I heard from one mainstream consumer/business class projector manufacturer while I was at Infocom back in June. As far as I know, TI has not made any info public on their plans for a new 4K DMD chip but the projector manufacturer reps told me, off the record, at Infocom that TI had informed them that samples of a consumer grade 4K chip would be available my mid-2014 with production quantities in 2015. Of course TI's plans may have changed since then.
post #24 of 72
Most companies do not want the competition to know what they are working on, so who knows what is true and what is wild speculation. It will be exciting to see what actually does come out 4K projector wise over the next couple of years.
post #25 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by noah katz View Post

Perhaps that's why you, or anyone else, haven't even once tried to after I and others have made the above argument many times.

Care to try for once?

I'm not saying more $ doesn't buy a better lens, perhaps with less CA and higher ANSI CR via better, more expensive coatings.

I *am* saying that the resolution argument doesn't hold water.


This, I agree with totally.

Could someone take a full 4K test pattern display it on a 4K machine (Sony 1100). Then take the same pattern, crop top LHS corner area to 1920x1080 and display the image on a non e-shift JVC(Small beam spot) and then compare the JVC 1/4 segment, to the same 1/4 segment of the full Sony(large beam spot 4x of JVC) image(the JVC image will be 1/4 of the size of the full Sony Image). Some valuable data could be gathered this way?
Edited by Highjinx - 1/16/14 at 2:31pm
post #26 of 72
in exactly 946 days
post #27 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig Peer View Post

Most companies do not want the competition to know what they are working on, so who knows what is true and what is wild speculation. It will be exciting to see what actually does come out 4K projector wise over the next couple of years.

I agree the next two CEDIA shows should be some of the most exciting trade shows in a very long time for those of us obsessed with front projector based home theaters.

By the way it set up my first front projector based HT in Nov. 1974 (Advent Videobeam 1000 with an 84 inch screen), can any other forum member claim longer for having a proper HT?
post #28 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmccormack View Post

in exactly 946 days

So August 19, 2016 is the date?
post #29 of 72
Seegs. If you have to ask that to verify your calendar math, you don't deserve an answer.
post #30 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Jones View Post

I agree the next two CEDIA shows should be some of the most exciting trade shows in a very long time for those of us obsessed with front projector based home theaters.

By the way it set up my first front projector based HT in Nov. 1974 (Advent Videobeam 1000 with an 84 inch screen), can any other forum member claim longer for having a proper HT?

I think I did my first FP in the early 1980s. I do remember seeing some very expensive FPs at our school TV station in 1966-1967.

the first FP I had and sold and installed to and for others were various rebadges of the 3 7 inch tube Zeniths.
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