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Predict all the companies that will be out of the TV business in the next 5 years

post #1 of 191
Thread Starter 
With many Japanese companies heading towards the exits--who will be the main NON Chinese competitors in the Flat Panel business 5 years from now--any speculations welcome.
post #2 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

With many Japanese companies heading towards the exits--who will be the main NON Chinese competitors in the Flat Panel business 5 years from now--any speculations welcome.
Isn't the first post asking the opposite of the thread title? The thread title asks to predict the companies that will be out of business and the first post asks for the companies that will be in business.
post #3 of 191
Thread Starter 
Maybe we have people here that have the capability to answer both questions?

I'm ignorant--I don't know who is Japanese--who is Korean and who the big Chinese Flat panel producers are.

Maybe someone could enlighten me?
post #4 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood 
With many Japanese companies heading towards the exits
The japanese are not out of the game ...yet.

a thread about that
http://www.avsforum.com/t/1422916/sony-panasonic-and-sharp-tv-divisions-melting-down-in-summer-2012-heat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood 
who will be the main NON Chinese competitors in the Flat Panel business 5 years from now--any speculations welcome.
that is a bit of a silly question smile.gif -> Samsung, LG <-
post #5 of 191
Japan is almost out of the CE industry.

Anyone that thinks that's not happening and won't continue just needs to look at who the CE big dog was before Japan took over.

History repeats over and over, those that don't change with it are doomed.
post #6 of 191
Thread Starter 
Are the new sacred cows Samsung and LG?

Have they learned anything from the Japanese companies to avoid their fate against the Chinese?
post #7 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

Are the new sacred cows Samsung and LG?

Have they learned anything from the Japanese companies to avoid their fate against the Chinese?

Japan had a pretty long CE run. About 40 years.

It will be interesting to see if South Korea can last that long too.

One thing to look at is average age of a population.

Japan's his horrible, so it's not surprising the 20 plus younger South Korea is taking it's place.

China's problem is the communists running it.
post #8 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

Japan had a pretty long CE run. About 40 years.It will be interesting to see if South Korea can last that long too.One thing to look at is average age of a population.Japan's his horrible, so it's not surprising the 20 plus younger South Korea is taking it's place. China's problem is the communists running it.

Something to add here from broader perspective would be that Japan has reached its maximal population density so reducing the population will be beneficial in long term. If you say Chin's problem is the communists this is not true judging from the economic progress they made.Hard to imagine progress could be better. Population-wise comparable country is India, which while being non-communist and democratic is sliding behind China, what is their problem?
post #9 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

"Something to add here from broader perspective would be that Japan has reached its maximal population density so reducing the population will be beneficial in long term. If you say Chin's problem is the communists this is not true judging from the economic progress they made.Hard to imagine progress could be better. Population-wise comparable country is India, which while being non-communist and democratic is sliding behind China, what is their problem?"/
Quote:

To the question of this thread first...I'd throw Toshiba up there too. Too bad because I really like the picture quality of their 50"-65" panels. They're really my favorite in that genre.

To the highlighted question...India doesn't really have a Democracy. It never has. That's a big reason why Pakistan split away from it. It's a rigid, brutal, authoritarian hodgepodge of a political structure that is oligarchic, socialist, spoils, black market capitalism, rigid religious code and limited democracy. And all of the limitations revolve around its centuries old oppressive caste system. China had the Mao revolution that purged all of that kind of corrupt, ancient cultural rigidity out of the Chinese system. It's population is much easier to focus and control. India is the opposite. I spent a lot of time in both countries in the 1990's. Think herding to understand them. China's system is like herding cows. Socialism and very limited capitalism works perfectly for them because Communism is their religion. And it is much easier to mobilize that huge population behind its communal tenets. India is like herding a mixture of horses. Thoroughbreds up front with no dissent...Lippizans next with no dissent...Clydesdales in the middle...and that is the 5% of the herd. 95% of the population of the herd are mules and donkeys...with no dissent and very little voice about what governs the herd. In the Chinese herd there is at least minimum expectation that basic rights and provisions will be handled equitably by its politboro. In India there is none. Neither of those cultures remotely resemble a "Democracy". Especially by American standards.

So the answer is they don't have a problem. We have the problem based on how we interpret their system and culture. The interaction between Chinese and Indian dynasties is a fascinating study. And much too lengthy and off topic for this thread or forum. Suffice it to say...India will never be a real threat to China's or the Asian empire's economic might. It will always be a drag on it. As its historic role suggests.
post #10 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck 

Something to add here from broader perspective would be that Japan has reached its maximal population density so reducing the population will be beneficial in long term. If you say Chin's problem is the communists this is not true judging from the economic progress they made.Hard to imagine progress could be better. Population-wise comparable country is India, which while being non-communist and democratic is sliding behind China, what is their problem?

China is going downhill..
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2013/07/23/the-end-of-the-chinese-economic-miracle/

CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v62), quality = 75
post #11 of 191
LG and Samsung will be around for at least another 10 years.

I doubt Japan will abandon the CE industry completely. They still make receivers, Blu-ray players, camera's etc... .

China's biggest potential obstacle is corruption. Everyone is trying to steal what they can while they can and get out of the country.

I wouldn't be surprised to see US companies make some sort of comeback. Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc.. may decide to make monitors. In a few years, production may become almost fully automated so you make them close to your consumer base and/or where electricity is cheapest. Kind of like what happened in the car industry.
post #12 of 191
Where will they make a comeback? Where electricity is cheapest won't be in North America, if you believe the words of our very own eco-commie administration (who themselves predict an 80-90% spike in rates to accommodate their new coal rules).
post #13 of 191
^ Your political opinions have no place on this forum.
post #14 of 191
Too bad. It's germane to the discussion of the prospect of manufacturing returning to the US (similar to so-called "free" trade agreements championed by both parties). Also, ignoring the opinionated parenthetical part of my post, the gist of what I stated (EPA officials suggesting an 80 to 90% rate increase to meet compliance) was not my opinion.
post #15 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

Where will they make a comeback? Where electricity is cheapest won't be in North America, if you believe the words of our very own eco-commie administration (who themselves predict an 80-90% spike in rates to accommodate their new coal rules).
Mexico, final assembly plants for Samsung are already there, Mitusubishi is there, Sony has been there for awhile. There are others.
post #16 of 191
The electricity rates in the U.S. are, in fact, among the lowest in the developed world. And "eco commie" nonsense is helping, not hurting. Let's get more of that, ASAP. More eco commies who want to generate their own power = cheaper than grid solar power in about 30 states. Terrible!

Anyway....

Out:
Sony
Panasonic
Toshiba
Sharp

Incumbents:
Samsung
LG
Vizio (U.S., Canada, Mexico... slight chance Western Europe)

Chinese brands (most will survive from this list):
TCL
Hisense
Haier
Konka
Changhong
Skyworth
post #17 of 191
Why should the rest of the world serve as any kind of model as to what prices should be here? Maybe in a politican's demented mind who believes the world is on the cusp of a climate meltdown. Anyhow, you don't force it by an all-powerful bureaucratic entity for which there is no recourse by its subjects (that's the the kind of nonsense I loathe, the same kind that says you must buy private insurance that covers what we define or face even more financial consequences), you let the market generate the solutions (which they clearly are, as someone who has obtained some of those newfangled panels)...I know, I know, often helped along by tax credits/subsidies.

Mexico notwithstanding, tenthplanet. smile.gif Looking for a silver lining, I guess it could be said that does help the US in that it discourages illegal immigration by creating employment south of the border. As to who will (or can afford) to buy the final product, that remains a quandary.
Edited by vinnie97 - 2/14/14 at 9:57am
post #18 of 191
Thread Starter 
I am for anything in the imagination of anyone on Planet Earth that will stop LCD!

LCD Borg: I will Resist and I will not be Assimilated!
post #19 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

The electricity rates in the U.S. are, in fact, among the lowest in the developed world. And "eco commie" nonsense is helping, not hurting. Let's get more of that, ASAP. More eco commies who want to generate their own power = cheaper than grid solar power in about 30 states. Terrible!

Not to go too far OT, but without subsidies, how viable is solar really? I mean generation by panels on peoples' rooftops. Sure, it's useful in many situations where you're off the grid.

Now, the following may be outdated, but 10 years ago my wife (science teacher) obtained a tour of the Solarex plant in Frederick, MD, and asked me to tag along. (BTW, I think Solarex was bought out, but dunno by whom. The plant is closed.) It was just us and one of the engineers.

Anyway, we got quite the tour. From the area where they tested longevity and output (which decreases over time) of the solar panels, all the way through to shipping.

Here's my point: When we were at the crucible (powered by electricity generated by nasty fossil fuels), I saw several large cubes of silicon on pallets. (Poly-crystalline silicon, IIRC). I asked the engineer how many panels they could get out of each cube of silicon, taking into account the wastage. And how much power would be generated from those panels over their lifetime. (I forget his answer now). Then I asked how much electricity it took to make each one of those cubes. He looked at me sidelong and said something like: "I know what you're getting at". But I didn't get a clear answer; he talked instead about falling costs per watt of output. I confess that at the time I thought there must be a dirty little secret there.
post #20 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by fritzi93 View Post

Not to go too far OT, but without subsidies, how viable is solar really?
This is why we so urgently need Dolby Vision. When we have enough TVs with it, we simply put solar panels in front of every TV, and the system will become self-sustaining.
post #21 of 191
Thread Starter 
No what we need is to stop New World Order Fascist LCDs even if it takes abandoning market principals and subsidizing OLED!

Get that?! Do you understand what I'm talkin' about?

This country was founded on ideals--not on LCD monopolies.

Give the American people a get out of LCD Jail Card!

United huddled masses--Let the Rivers Run--send LCD down the toilet once and for all!

This announcement paid for by the Committee to Elect ANYONE that hates New World Order LCDs.
post #22 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by fritzi93 View Post

Not to go too far OT, but without subsidies, how viable is solar really? I mean generation by panels on peoples' rooftops. Sure, it's useful in many situations where you're off the grid.

So let me go off topic for a second... Solar "grid parity" has been reached in many places already... What that means is that "the total cost of making power from solar is comparable to the cost of power from the grid."

Here's a cool chart:



That's for Europe.

Here's another that doesn't really reflect the state of things (they're better because costs have fallen more), but shows how much of the world will be there by 2020:



And here's a third one:




Most solar panels made today pay for the energy it costs to make them in <18 months and last 20+ years. We put a system up 8 years ago. It has generated enough power that the value of the power alone is equal to more than 1/2 the system cost already (it's probably close to 3/4, I haven't computed it lately). The system is expected to last for 25 years or so. The cost of power has historically gone in exactly one direction. I have -- in the past -- estimated it's like getting 7-8% on my money, tax free, every year -- without risk. I'd call that viable.
post #23 of 191
The cost per watt has indeed dropped. It's partly what spurred me to jump in headfirst last year. The grid still needs redundancy when the sun is down (especially if electric cars ever hope to make real traction), though (natural gas seems to be helping the coal offset, for now). Wind isn't going to cut it.
post #24 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

The japanese are not out of the game ...yet.

a thread about that
http://www.avsforum.com/t/1422916/sony-panasonic-and-sharp-tv-divisions-melting-down-in-summer-2012-heat
that is a bit of a silly question smile.gif -> Samsung, LG <-
No not ignore a company like Vizio. They can buy components from anybody and assemble an unlimited range of quality. Cheap, you bet. But they also have the components available to out Elite the Elite. No manufacture stopped building full dimming because they thought it was inferior, just that it was not cost effective. If Vizio brings it back and does it well they will find plenty of buyers.
post #25 of 191
Thread Starter 
I'm not one of those green wackos but I think Rogo is right about the Solar thing. Solar should be used throughout the whole world. It makes perfect sense to me but I think it works best if you couple it with windmill power.
post #26 of 191
You didn't get any disagreement from me on how far solar has come. Wind power efficacy, on the other hand, is a much tougher nut to crack. It makes less economic sense if the wind in your region doesn't meet a high enough threshold:


The heartland (and WY and parts of NM and MT) are obviously the most productive spots. You could be throwing a lot of money for little gain most other places.
Edited by vinnie97 - 2/16/14 at 10:40pm
post #27 of 191
We're really off topic.. but the key with wind is this... it works pretty well (a) when the sun is down in a lot of places (b) well collectively.... when it's not blowing here, it's probably blowing there, where there is not necessarily too far away.

As a result, wind in aggregate can make for a nice power complement to sun, natural gas, nuclear, whatever. It also means you shouldn't build wind where it doesn't blow well at all and you shouldn't build too much wind total. We currently get about 3.5% of our power from wind and there's a good chance we could get that up to about 10-20% (depending on whether we can ever put any of it offshore and whether some states with good resources engage in smart or stupid policies toward it). But wind won't likely get much farther than that ever, whereas solar could get to half our energy needs within half a century -- or possibly less -- because it can be deployed in most of the country on homes, office parks, and at utility scale. And it pairs well with small-scale storage to smooth out the bumps in output.

If we can find a way to add a small amount of new nuclear, we can probably cut 80% of our carbon footprint before 2065 easily. If we can't, it might take somewhat longer, because it's a lot of solar panels.....
post #28 of 191
Wow, look at the purple spot in Wyoming! It looks to run from Laramie through Medicine Bow to Shirley Basin. When I was at Univ of Wyo (Laramie) many years ago, I thought this must be the windiest place on the planet.

Locals used to say the four seasons were differentiated by what was blowing sideways: snow, rain, dust or aspen leaves (from the Snowy Mt Range 30 miles west). tongue.gif

It's the High Plains though, well over a mile elevation and the air is pretty thin. Dunno what that may imply for windmills, I think I read somewhere that there are some experimental turbines near Medicine Bow.
post #29 of 191
It's prime real estate for that sort of thing, surely enough. I don't think Artwood minds the diversion. Concerning nuclear, new plants built with the purpose of using thorium for fuel would be miles better in terms of safer alternatives to what is used so commonly in today's ancient reactors.
post #30 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

It's prime real estate for that sort of thing, surely enough. I don't think Artwood minds the diversion. Concerning nuclear, new plants built with the purpose of using thorium for fuel would be miles better in terms of safer alternatives to what is used so commonly in today's ancient reactors.

You must read Karl Denninger. Be careful not to take him too seriously if you do read him. He's a classic example of the saying 'A little bit of knowledge can be very dangerous'. Not that he's not entertaining, but he has a tendency to think he knows a lot more about things than he really does. And if you question him in any way and make him look foolish, he'll ban you from his site. And what's really funny about that is he's the type to rail against people who do that sort of thing.
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