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post #61 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by amelie
I've read that Sony is prepping the PS3 for Christmas '05. Regardless, Sony would be smart to rollout the PS3 with BR technology at launch and for a great price. If they were willing to take an initial loss, they'd likely benefit greatly in the end.
I second that.

Under the current situation (two battle lost), Sony¡¯s best if not the only chance to win the war is to push the blue-ray into the market cheap (honestly I don¡¯t see this happen) and in large scale.
PS3 and blue-ray recorder should be the weapon. Circumventing the DVD forum seems to be the only way out.
During past three month, blur-ray camp was trying their best to lower the cost (10% above the current DVD in mass production according to Nikkeibp). But that was still not enough to stop the HD-DVD 1.0 to be approved on June 11th by DVD forum.
Now the only part left is the audio-codec.
If no surprise, 2005 could see the standard and optimistically the beginning of mass production.
post #62 of 18952
Guys,

Its a far, far cry to sell a new game console for $300 and you are suggesting they include BR? Sure why not, we all love pipe dreams. :)
post #63 of 18952
The consoles are already sold at a significant loss, even at their debut prices. Sony might be willing to double that loss to gain the market advantage. An awful lot of those gamers you mention use their console as their DVD player too.

BB
post #64 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Brandon B
The consoles are already sold at a significant loss, even at their debut prices. Sony might be willing to double that loss to gain the market advantage. An awful lot of those gamers you mention use their console as their DVD player too.

BB


The profit on dvd player was squezzed maddly by the manufactures based in China. The BR camp have invested billions and they sweared in public that is not going to happen again...
post #65 of 18952
What BB said. Game console mfr's have the advantage of being able to amortize some of the console costs against sales of games. Heaven knows the Xbox was sold at a loss, and maybe still is, but that doesn't mean the model doesn't work; ask Sony. lymzy, what you just said doesn't contradict BB either, because again just because they lose money on the console doesn't mean the business unit loses money.

When I bought my brother a PS2 for Christmas, he gave me his DVD player since he didn't need it anymore.

There is no doubt that this could be a good way to get Blu-Rays into the hands of a lot of people.
post #66 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
What BB said. Game console mfr's have the advantage of being able to amortize some of the console costs against sales of games. Heaven knows the Xbox was sold at a loss, and maybe still is, but that doesn't mean the model doesn't work; ask Sony. lymzy, what you just said doesn't contradict BB either, because again just because they lose money on the console doesn't mean the business unit loses money.

When I bought my brother a PS2 for Christmas, he gave be his DVD player since he didn't need it anymore.

There is no doubt that this could be a good way to get Blu-Rays into the hands of a lot of people.
I agree, it would be a good way to get BR in alot of hands, but at what cost? Sony would essentially alienate their core gaming customers b/c the price of entry would be too high for the average gamer. Your average gamer is used to $300 for a console, but anything more is pushing it, especially when all you want to do is play SSX 4 and Metal Gear Solid 4. Most gamers would find it hard to justify the extra cost just so that they can play hd dvds when they may not even have an hd set!
post #67 of 18952
Quote:
Sony would essentially alienate their core gaming customers b/c the price of entry would be too high for the average gamer.
You seem to have decided for Sony already how much a blu-ray console is going to cost. It's not clear what they can get the cost down to at the volumes that a PS3 promises. A $300 selling price might be entirely reasonable after you factor in the loss they're willing to take to get these into the hands of game-buying consumers. The PS2 did just fine for a long time at that price, and at the time, good DVD players were not all that much cheaper than full-fledged PS2s.
post #68 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
What BB said. Game console mfr's have the advantage of being able to amortize some of the console costs against sales of games. Heaven knows the Xbox was sold at a loss, and maybe still is, but that doesn't mean the model doesn't work; ask Sony. lymzy, what you just said doesn't contradict BB either, because again just because they lose money on the console doesn't mean the business unit loses money.

Sony does not own whole the BR camp.
I don't think sony is the only investor on BR either.
But PS game console is Sony's product.
If PS3 with BR is sold at a huge loss, would it hurt the BR camp as a whole?
post #69 of 18952
That depends on the price of standalone BR units, of course. And PS2 sales didn't damage the DVD market... seems to me it depends quite a bit on timing. When will the PS3s be out relative to HD-DVD and standalone Blu-Ray?
post #70 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
And PS2 sales didn't damage the DVD market...
Actually, PS2 in this case was the victim rather than the damager or squeezer (etc. APEX). Anyway, back to the topic. I do think AOD with VC-9 will be the first HD-DVD mass production standard by Hollywood. Otherwise, what is DVD-Forum for?
BR will eventually catch up when the PS3 or other BR player gain popularity¡_
post #71 of 18952
And if they are bolstering demand for BR disk manufacture by making the games in that format, makes it easier to justify creating the manufacturing capability in the first place.

I'm not saying they will or should do this, I just think it's a reasonable course for them to consider.

BB
post #72 of 18952
you guys see this yet?

Quote:
'Blu-ray Disc Association’ Established

Jun 4, 2004, 12:54

by Terence P. Keegan

The 13 companies comprising the Blu-ray Disc Founders announced in Hollywood on May 18 their establishment of the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA), an organization chartered to further develop the format's standards and applications.

The new association says it is inviting more companies from a wider range of industries to have a role in Blu-ray--including the makers of advanced compression codecs which were rejected for inclusion in the BD standard last year.

While Blu-ray currently only accommodates MPEG-2 for video compression, the rival HD-DVD standard being developed by Toshiba, NEC and others under the DVD Forum is expected to support Microsoft's Windows Media as well as MPEG-4 AVC.

Sony Electronics' Mike Fidler, who has been BD's chief spokesman in the U.S., confirmed that revision of the format's compression specs is already under consideration. "We are still in evaluation process," he said, "but we do believe that there are opportunities to include an advanced compression codec in Blu-ray specifications."


(Fidler, an industry veteran who for the last year headed Sony Corp.'s Blu-ray Disc group, assumed a new company role last month as senior vice president of Sony Electronics' home products division. Replacing him as vice president of Sony's BD unit is Victor Matsuda, who previously oversaw Sony's entertainment robot division in the U.S.)

Applications to join the Blu-ray Disc Association will be available from the Blu-ray Disc Founders in late summer; the new group's first meeting will be scheduled for this fall.

www.blu-raydisc-official.org
post #73 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by amirm
The net is that VC-9 is now officially mandatory for HD-DVD and will be available for content owners to use. This is good news for consumers as we continue to outperform H.264/MPEG-2 in head-to-head HD tests.
could you point us to some links showing VC-9 outperforming H.264?
post #74 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Brandon B
The consoles are already sold at a significant loss, even at their debut prices. Sony might be willing to double that loss to gain the market advantage. An awful lot of those gamers you mention use their console as their DVD player too.

BB
You mean like how JVC cornered the market on D-VHS with its D-Theater?
post #75 of 18952
How it the world is that even remotely comparable?
post #76 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by DigitalAV
you guys see this yet?

[/i]

Again, circumventing the DVD forum seems to be the only way out for BR.

But if so, what is DVD Forum for?
post #77 of 18952
To define a standard for HD content distribution and sales, of course. But if the BR folks can do the same thing, and convince the studios it's viable, what's the diff? It sounds like you have a somewhat romantic notion of what these standards bodies do.
post #78 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
To define a standard for HD content distribution and sales, of course. But if the BR folks can do the same thing, and convince the studios it's viable, what's the diff? It sounds like you have a somewhat romantic notion of what these standards bodies do.
One goal of dvd forum is to avoid the war between standards
or let's say create a table to solve those conflicts before they come into mass production.

BR vs AOD is one of those typical conflicts.

Now, BR camp sees little chance to win the war inside DVD Forum.
Instead of accepting the results, BR camp tried to ignore DVD Forum by creating and expanding Blue-ray Disc Association (BDA).

If the (BDA) can circumvent the DVD forum, put forward their standards, and convince Hollywood ASAP, I have no problem with that.

But if this impedes the official HD-DVD standard to come out, I just don't see that to be romantic.
post #79 of 18952
I'm just saying that there's nothing magic about a standards body like the DVD Forum. It is not an altruistic entity set up by the U.N. to avoid global conflict. Companies participate in it only because they see it in their best profit interests to do so. Apparently the members of the BDA feel it's in their best profit interest to cook up their own competing standard for now.

I just don't have the same kind of doomsday predictions others do about the competition between these formats. In fact I see the competition as quite healthy, especially at this early stage, when they are busy wooing the studio's hearts.

Some people worry that competing standards will ruin the market for HD-DVD. I don't believe the content companies will let that happen. They're already seeing how easy it is to rip standard DVDs; and HD-DVD promises to give them much stronger copy protection scheme, one that I anticipate will not be cracked for at least a decade. No, it won't eliminate bootlegging altogether, not as long as there are camcorder pirates and analog video recorders. But it can effectively squelch casual piracy. If I am right, content companies will be eager to replace SD-DVD with HD-DVD when it comes out, so they won't be interested in format wars sinking the consumer interest in the new format.

Yeah, we're impatient for content, but there's a long way to go yet, even if they nailed something down tomorrow. There is still audio and content protection to deal with, for example.
post #80 of 18952
Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
HD-DVD promises to give them much stronger copy protection scheme, one that I anticipate will not be cracked for at least a decade.
You're underestimating the capabilities of a geek. I give it a week after release tops.
post #81 of 18952
Quote:
You're underestimating the capabilities of a geek. I give it a week after release tops.
If that were true, this whole conversation is moot. Both formats would be completely doomed.
post #82 of 18952
Michael, my earlier comments are not comparable, but the individual I was replying to had me thinking his comments were just as absurd. Sony has not found the means to grow money on trees, and the dollar loss per unit to deploy a PS3+BL in numbers to justify them opening their movie lockers to succeed in a similar DVD business manner just seems far fetched.

Amelie, you are correct. There is a lot of skills out there with serious down time and when their idle hands get really bored ...
post #83 of 18952
TheFerret:

Your assumption is that it will be something relatively simple, like CSS.
I suspect it won't be something quite so simple. I haven't heard anything on encryption.

If they apply some solid crypto-system a geek with idle time wouldn't handle it, you'd need a segmented, coordinated attack. Not impossible by any stretch of the imagination, but more likely it would be by a number of people splitting the compute load.

No crypto system is unbreakable. The goal of a crypto system is to make the costs too high in compute resources, or so long to compute that brute-force decryption attacks are take too long.

Cheers,
post #84 of 18952
Forum approves Apple music format for DVD Audio
http://www.theregister.com/2004/06/14/dvd_forum_aac/
post #85 of 18952
Hey, I am "an individual"!

Why is it absurd to take an additional $100-200 loss (or whatever you think is the actual figure to include BR in PS3) to jump start the BD format as the prevailing hidef format? And as Michael asked, how is that comparable to releasing a new format saddled with all the baggage (rewinding, lack of durability) etc. of an outgoing technology? Particularly when JVC probably had no illusions of owning any market except other than as a very interim solution?

BB
post #86 of 18952
Quote:
Why is it absurd to take an additional $100-200 loss (or whatever you think is the actual figure to include BR in PS3) to jump start the BD format as the prevailing hidef format?
It makes a lot of sense to do this except that it could cannibalize sales of the stand-alone Blu-Ray players. For example, if $ony wants to sell the stand alone players for ~$800 initially but you can buy a PS3 for ~$300-400, which would you choose?
post #87 of 18952
Because, you are assuming the costs for which Sony will need to take that loss is only $100-200 when it may be much higher. Thus, selling the PS2 for $300 when it may cost Sony a grand is absurd to me. You also have to look at it that not everyone is looking for BL, and thus to include this into the PS2, a product for gamers, just doesn't seem to make smart business sense.

A couple of years ago I said it was crazy that they still made CD-ROM players when they could simply make DVD-ROM players and afford themselves the ability for better encryption and other things while still be backward compatible. This idea still holds today, but they haven't done it. Look at how many CD-based head units there are in car audio and how many portable optical-based music players are still based on CD.

BTW, sorry for not addressing you correctly.
post #88 of 18952
Not assuming that, just guessing. I think the PS2 actual cost was something around $500, so a BR equipped PS3 almost certainly would be higher, maybe as much as $1K.

But if it jumps starts their market, allows them to start moving the volume of disks that will allow them to sell more dedicated players, don't see why that's a far-fetched scenario. It is how the game console market operates already. Might fail, but it's an avenue open to them since they have the advantage in that market.

Quote:
For example, if $ony wants to sell the stand alone players for ~$800 initially but you can buy a PS3 for ~$300-400, which would you choose?
True enough. I don't think Sony wants to make their money off $800 players though. THey will have those, but the money is going to come from the volume on $100-200 players. How many people do you know with a PS2 who don't have a DVD player also?

BB
post #89 of 18952
BTW, didn't Sony try something like a more elaborate PSX which fell flat on its face? I may be dreaming, but I've had my coffee this morning. Mmm, caffeine. :)
post #90 of 18952
Quote:
originally posted from Brandon B:
I don't think Sony wants to make their money off $800 players though. THey will have those, but the money is going to come from the volume on $100-200 players. How many people do you know with a PS2 who don't have a DVD player also?
It would be interesting to know where $ony figures to make the most $ :
1) Blu-Ray hardware sales
2) Royalties from Blu-Ray hardware sales
3) Royalties from Blu-Ray software sales (MPEG-2, patents for Blu-Ray, etc)
4) Software sales from their studios
Quote:
the money is going to come from the volume on $100-200 players.
Not for $ony. The profit margins at that point have got to be razor thin. They lost this battle to mfrs in China with the current DVD format and they don't want that to happen this time around.
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