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DVR popularity rates a television sea of change

Diane Holloway, Austin American-Statesman
Cox News Service

AUSTIN, Texas--The numbers may be small now, but they're growing, and soon Nielsen ratings will be factored into the equation. And that makes them even more important.

Digital video recorders _ also called DVRs, PVRs (personal video recorders) and TiVos _ have found their way into about 4 percent of television households nationwide.

In Austin, the penetration is considerably greater _ 35,000 of Time Warner's 300,000 subscriber households have DVRs, almost 12 percent. Time Warner began offering the service last fall for an additional $9.95 a month to digital cable subscribers.

The boxes allow people to set their own viewing schedules, and depending on the service, you may be able to record one show while watching another and even record two shows at once.

If you want to watch "CSI" at midnight, when the kids aren't around to witness the oozing corpses, you can. Late-night TV can be moved to prime time so early risers can avoid sleep deprivation. Those great kiddie shows that come on PBS and Nickelodeon mid-morning? You can play them in the early evenings when you're cooking dinner and the kids are cranky.

DVRs are on the cusp of major significance. Forrester Research Inc., which monitors media technology, projects that 45 percent of the viewing public will have DVRs in five years, and that the current 4 percent will leap to 15 percent to 20 percent in a couple of years.

Starting in April, Nielsen Media Research will ease into measuring the number of people who watch recorded shows. "The penetration isn't high now, but it's going to grow quickly because cable companies are pushing them," said Karen Kratz Gyimesi, a spokeswoman for Nielsen. "That's why we want to get ahead of it as quickly as possible next year."

Nielsen will measure and report live viewing in one batch of ratings and then report live ratings plus recorded ratings a week later.

What will this mean? Maybe it will mean that cutthroat competition and viewer-unfriendly scheduling won't matter so much in the future. For instance, a terrific show like the WB's "Jack & Bobby" might be as popular as ABC's "Desperate Housewives" or NBC's "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" _ all of which air at 8 p.m. Sundays.

TiVo issues a weekly list of the Top 25 shows recorded by its subscribers, and the usual suspects are included. Most recently, "The Apprentice," "Survivor" and "Lost" were at the top. No surprises there. But the WB's "Smallville," No. 76 on the Nielsen chart, also was on TiVo's most-recorded list.

DVRs are freeing us from schedules far faster than VCRs, which were always too difficult for most people to program.

"The DVR has done complete violence to the idea of late-night, prime-time and weekend viewing," says Josh Bernoff, vice president of Forrester Research. "It hasn't caught up with overall viewing trends yet, but it's having a dramatic impact on TV executives' thinking. They're aware of the trend and are doing things to either thwart or take advantage of it."

For example, Bernoff cites NBC's offbeat scheduling, sometimes starting an 8 p.m. show at 7:55 or 8:06 p.m. If you don't have a clue when a show is really coming on, maybe you'll watch it live instead of taping it.

Network executives are also fretting over the fact that DVR users, who tend to be more affluent and media savvy, typically skip more than 90 percent of commercials, which is why product placement is becoming more common.

"TV is still the main game for a mass audience," Bernoff says. "But we're hearing rumblings that ad executives are saying TV advertising isn't worth what the networks are charging. They're shifting to print and online for a more balanced approach."

What are DVR users taping? Dramas, comedies and even reality shows, which was a surprise to Bernoff. Programs that DVR users still tend to watch live include news and sports.

"Reality shows are designed to be these pseudo-sports shows, and yet they're mostly watched recorded," Bernoff says. "People seem to be quite happy to watch them the next day."

Doesn't this mean the water-cooler conversations about hot TV shows will disappear? The electronic campfire will be snuffed out? When the new "American Idol" is crowned, we'll all see it at different times? And won't the folks who watch it later risk having the suspense ruined by those who watched it live?

"Eventually, all those things could happen," Bernoff says. "In our survey of DVR users, we found the relationship between people and their machines is borderline unhealthy _ 19 percent of them used the word 'love' to describe their DVRs. That's kind of scary."

Maybe the really scary prospect is DVR users turning into TV gluttons. Will we be glued to the tube to gobble up all the shows we record?

Sure, we can set our own gobbling schedules, but will our weekends (and former sleep time) disappear into the whir of the DVR? Will we be glowing from all this newfound freedom? Problems to ponder as we move from mass media to an age of personal programming.

ESPN Yanks Cable Crown from Fox News
(Thursday, October 14 02:14 PM)

LOS ANGELES (Zap2it.com)--Fox News Channel got a ratings boost from two major election season debates, but the cable network couldn't compete with ESPN's roster of playoff baseball and NFL action. In fact, FNC slipped from the top of the cable ratings to third for the week ending Sunday, Oct. 10.

ESPN averaged 4.03 million viewers per night for the week, beating the strong 3.01 million viewers who watched the Disney Channel. Fox News was close behind with 2.95 million viewers per night, with Lifetime's 2.13 million and the 2.03 million for TNT close behind.

The week's most watched cable program was the Sunday night gridiron battle between the Ravens and the Redskins, which tackled 8.43 million viewers. Two games of ESPN's coverage of the American League divisional series between the Yankees and Twins were No. 4 with 6.81 million and No. 10 with 5.06 million. A game between the Red Sox and Angels was No. 13 with 4.14 million.
Tuesday (Oct. 5) night's debate between Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards brought 7.82 million viewers to FNC, the week's second most watched program and more than the 7.09 million who made Friday's presidential debate the week's No. 3 basic cable offering. Analysis after the Friday debate was No. 5 with 6.69 million viewers, compared to the 5.62 million who tuned in following the vice presidential tilt, enough for No. 7. The pre-debate coverage on Tuesday was No. 11 with 4.72 million viewers.

The Disney Channel's strong week was paced by the original "Halloweentown High," which scared up 6.14 million viewers in its first airing, making it No. 6 for the week. A second airing was No. 9 with 5.16 million.

The only other network with multiple shows in the Top 15 was Nickelodeon, which had episode of "Fairly Odd Parents" at No. 14 with 3.98 million viewers and No. 15 with 3.86 million.

The season finale of "Nip/Tuck," featuring twists, turns, Joan Rivers and Alec Baldwin drew record ratings for the show, doctoring 5.22 million viewers, while the Lifetime movie "Plain Truth" was No. 12 with 4.68 million.

On the premium cable side, HBO filled the charts, led by a screening of the movie "Bad Boys II," which blew up an audience of 2.34 million. The Trinidad-Mayorga boxing match was second with 2.02 million, as a new episode of "The Wire" pulled in only 1.45 million in third, just better than a screening of "American Wedding" with 1.27 million viewers. A new "Family Bonds" was fifth with 1.22 million.

NFL Recruits Mischer for Tame Super Bowl Halftime
LOS ANGELES (Zap2it.com) You may have heard that last year's Super Bowl halftime show didn't go exactly the way that the National Football League and CBS planned. You may have heard about Nipplegate, a wardrobe malfunction and a hefty fine from the FCC. As many headlines and articles were generated by Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake last year, the NFL and FOX would rather not get the same amount of publicity.

In an effort to provide a family-friendly show, the NFL has enlisted Don Mischer Productions to produce the cumbersomely named Ameriquest Mortgage Super Bowl XXXIX Halftime Show. Performers and further details will be announced later, but it's a safe bet that neither Jackson nor Timberlake will be asked to return.

Although Mischer has won 13 Emmy Awards, he seems like a surprisingly controversial choice for a league looking for tame and wholesome entertainment. Back in the late summer, Mischer produced the Democratic National Convention, which was going really well until a delay in the final balloon launch left Mischer swearing audibly on national television, earning embarrassment and unwanted publicity for the veteran.
On Sept. 19, Mischer produced his eighth Emmy telecast. He's also orchestrated opening and closing ceremonies for two Olympics and any number of other televised specials. Mischer produced the halftime show for the XXVII Super Bowl in 1993 and although a Jackson performed (Michael, in that case), outrage was kept to a bare minimum.

Super Bowl XXXIX will be held in Jacksonville, Fla. on Sunday, Feb. 6, 2005.

Commercial free TV?
From the Wall Street Journal:

More Networks Are Pulling the Plugs
Commercial-Free TV Shows Gain Traction as Marketers See Benefits of Such Deals

By BRIAN STEINBERG, Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 15, 2004

NEW YORK -- Warning: Couch potatoes shouldn't rely on commercial breaks for those all-important trips to the kitchen or the bathroom. After growing complaints about the barrage of ads cluttering up television shows, major networks are beginning to embrace the notion of airing programs without those common interruptions.

Until recently, commercial-free sponsorships were a rarity. But in recent months advertisers including Ford Motor, XM Satellite Radio Holdings and SABMiller's Miller Brewing have paid for shows to run commercial-free, often as part of a larger package involving placement of their products in the program.

By sponsoring such episodes, marketers generate goodwill with viewers and put promotional stunts into play that are decidedly more creative than the usual 30-second spot.

TV producers appreciate the trend. "We as show runners have to learn how to integrate advertisers as well as appreciate the advertisers. Otherwise, we will end up off the air," says Jonathan Prince, executive producer of "American Dreams," a drama on General Electric's NBC. Ford will sponsor a commercial-free broadcast of an emotional episode of the show set to air before Thanksgiving.

As part of the sponsorship, Ford's famous Mustang will be shown in classic print and TV car ads featured in the episode. Ford will bracket the show with a preshow ad sporting a new 2005 Mustang morphing into a classic edition of the car as well as a postshow minimovie. "American Dreams" isn't Ford's first commercial-free sponsorship: it has sponsored commercial-free season premieres for "24," the spy serial on News Corp.'s Fox, for two seasons, and a 1997 airing of "Schindler's List" on NBC that was uninterrupted by commercials.

Miller sponsored the commercial-free season premiere of "Rescue Me," the randy drama about firefighters on News Corp.'s FX -- which has aggressively pursued such deals. In return Miller got comments from viewers thanking the brewer for the uninterrupted content. XM sponsored this season's premiere of FX's plastic-surgery drama "Nip/Tuck," ran commercials before and after the program and received product-placement guarantees. A recent episode featured XM prominently in one scene. Viacom's CBS has had conversations with advertisers about the commercial-free idea as well.

Some media buyers are doubtful that commercial-free sponsorships will become much more common. Sponsoring a show without ads on a broadcast network is likely to be costly. It typically requires buying out national time and local ad minutes from network affiliates, says Laura Caraccioli-Davis, an entertainment-marketing specialist at Publicis Groupe's Starcom Entertainment. A network must also weigh whether giving the show to one sponsor is worth the revenue it could miss from others. Some of the deals "take a lot of finesse," she says. "They are more complicated than they sound."

Buying out a cable program might be less expensive than broadcast, media buyers say. But it still wouldn't be cheap, cautions David Levy, who oversees selling ad time on Time Warner's TBS and TNT cable networks. Executives there have considered the commercial-free idea for certain limited series, he says, though no deals have been done.

"I just have a hard time seeing why a great amount of clients would find the need to do this," especially if there is no long-term association with the program, says Bill McOwen, of Havas's MPG media-buying firm. "On a one-shot basis, I question the real need to pursue it."

Should marketers hook into the idea en masse, advertisers will need to "blow their own horn about their connections to the show," says Frances Page of Interpublic Group's Magna Global Entertainment.

Such promotion would lead to commercials about commercials that help sponsor programs without commercials, a taxing idea probably best left alone.

Cable ratings for Wednesday's debate coverage posted.

What's Up With Fox's "Tru Calling"?

Producer Ponders 'Tru Calling' Fate
By Kate O'Hare, zap2it.com

It's been a little over a month since FOX announced that it had scaled back production on the second season of "Tru Calling" from 13 episodes to six, and handed over its Thursday, Nov. 4, premiere date to the summer soap opera "North Shore."

Series producer Jon Harmon Feldman has been working on the post-production for the six episodes of the fantasy series starring Eliza Dushku ("Buffy the Vampire Slayer") as Tru, a med student and morgue attendant who can go back a day in time to prevent deaths.

After FOX had been quick on the trigger finger to cancel such series as "Harsh Realm," "Lone Gunmen," "Firefly" and "Wonderfalls," many were surprised when the low-rated "Tru" not only made it through its first season up against "Survivor" and "Friends," but looked to be coming back for a second.

"There have been rumors flying about ['Tru' going to] The WB," Feldman says, "although, at this point, I believe them to be only rumors, nothing more. They picked us up, as I was told, because they were excited about the direction of the show. They know what a tough time slot we were in, and they really believed that, based on the growth of the show, where we were heading, what we had planned for next season, that they wanted to see more of us.

"The only thing I've hard is that this decision was a business decision, to allocate money to shows that perhaps they thought had bigger futures or breakout potential. I'm not really sure how to characterize that. Obviously, when you work in network television, you always know these possibilities exist, but the way it went down was somewhat of a surprise."

The addition of Jason Priestley as Tru's opposite number and rival at the end of last season gave the show a creative boost.

"The irony is," Feldman says, "creatively, they've never been happier with the direction we were going. We had Jason as a full-time adversary, and Jason and Eliza's story had interesting twists. That's why I don't think this was a creative decision -- in fact, I know it wasn't a creative decision.

"If there's any slight silver lining -- although certainly it's a Pyrrhic victory -- is that it was not a creative decision. That is the hollowest of victories."

The first season of "Tru Calling" is set to be released by Fox Home Video on DVD on Nov. 30. Harmon hopes fans will get a chance to see the remaining episodes.

"There has been talk of releasing season two, the six episodes, to DVD as well. I hope that happens. It won't allow us to complete the arc that we were starting, but perhaps if we do release season two to DVD, at least it will give some of the creative people an opportunity to not only show those six episodes but also tell the fans what was going to happen. Those are stories worth hearing, worth telling."

FOX has yet to announce a season premiere date for "Tru."

"The network has not said they won't air these six," Harmon says, "but obviously you don't know what will happen. I am not planning a viewing party at this point."

O'Reilly Vows to Fight Harassment Charges

By DAVID BAUDER, Associated Press Writer Oct 14, 11:09 PM (ET)

NEW YORK (AP) - Fox News Channel's Bill O'Reilly made a TV talk show appearance on what he said was "the worst day of my life" Thursday, vowing to fight sexual harassment charges by one of his producers.

Accuser Andrea Mackris spoke publicly for the first time, saying she felt threatened by her former boss, who filed a lawsuit charging the woman and her lawyer with extortion.

Mackris, 33, said O'Reilly made a series of sexually explicit phone calls to her. Mackris, an associate producer on Fox News Channel's top-rated "The O'Reilly Factor," said he advised her to use a vibrator, told her about sexual fantasies involving her and engaged in unwanted phone sex.

During an appearance to promote his children's book on "Live with Regis and Kelly," O'Reilly said he'd been repeatedly threatened with lawsuits and bodily harm over the past few years. He said he knew that by filing his lawsuit, he could perhaps ruin his career.

"If I have to go down, I'm willing to do it," he said. "I'm going to take a stand. I'm a big mouth on the air and I'm a big mouth off the air."

On his own show Wednesday, O'Reilly called the case "the single most evil thing I have ever experienced, and I've seen a lot. But these people picked the wrong guy."

Mackris, who worked for O'Reilly for four years, said on ABC's "Good Morning America" that she took his actions and statements as a personal threat.

"I think my actions have been borne out in their actions toward me since I came out with it," she said.

ABC's Bob Woodruff asked Mackris if she knew what she was up against. O'Reilly "is no shrinking violet," he said.

"Neither am I," she responded.

O'Reilly had come out with his lawsuit first on Wednesday, accusing Mackris and lawyer Benedict Morelli of seeking "hush money" during negotiations over the past few weeks. Mackris then immediately filed her harassment claim.

O'Reilly faces a tough legal hurdle with his own case, since the law generally protects employees from retaliation if they come forward with an abuse allegation, said Debra Katz, an attorney who specializes in sexual harassment cases for Bernabei & Katz in Washington.

"I think this is a crazy legal strategy," Katz said. "But I think they made the decision that the press strategy is more important here."

Another expert in employment law, Kenneth Taber of the New York firm Pillsbury, Winthrop, said O'Reilly would have to go a lot further to prove extortion than just saying Mackris made monetary demands.

But Taber also said Mackris' case could be undermined since she returned to work for O'Reilly after a brief stint at CNN - and after some of the alleged harassment took place.

'West Wing' Eyes Successor for Bartlett

By LYNN ELBER, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES (AP) - The prospect of a change in the White House tends to draw a strong reaction, pro or con.

Not from "The West Wing" executive producer John Wells, though. He seems unfazed by the coming end of Democratic President Josiah "Jeb" Bartlet's tenure - and maybe even a Republican successor.

"We were a year and a half into the administration when we started the show," Wells said of the NBC drama entering its sixth season. "We have term limits in this country and so, on our electoral schedule, Bartlet's second term would end a year from this coming January."

That fact foreshadows a hybrid season when "The West Wing" returns Wednesday (Oct. 20, 9 p.m. EDT). Bartlet (Martin Sheen) grapples with his legacy while others fight for the chance to replace him.

Among them are contenders played by two familiar actors: Jimmy Smits ("NYPD Blue"), who's a potential Democratic candidate, and Alan Alda ("M-A-S-H") vying for the GOP nomination.

Also in the running is Vice President Russell (Gary Cole), with talented staff member Will Bailey (Josh Malina) at his side.

Could Wells envision "The West Wing," if re-elected by NBC to a seventh season, with a Republican president?

"I really could," he told The Associated Press. "What we've tried to put forward in the Bartlet administration is a Democratic presidency that was a bit of wish-fulfillment of what you'd really want your Democratic president to be.

"I don't think there's any reason you wouldn't want to see that show with a Republican."

Is he concerned that the show, called "The Left Wing" by those who find Bartlet's politics grating, might be seen as making the move to pander to conservatives?

"I think it depends on who the Republican candidate is and how you feel about the candidate by the time he or she is elected," he said.

Series creator Aaron Sorkin cast Bartlet in the same liberal mold as the leader in his 1995 film "The American President." Sorkin, who left the series in 2003, could not be reached for comment, a spokeswoman said Wednesday.

Change could reinvigorate the series' ratings, which dropped from a season-high average of 17.2 million viewers in 2001-02 to 11.8 million viewers last season.

But Wells, whose relationship with NBC is bolstered by the other shows he provides, including longtime linchpin drama "ER," said "The West Wing" ensures an affluent viewership for sponsors and that he's confident of renewal.

A new commander-in-chief, from either party, would mean wholesale changes in the White House staff and the cast. But Wells told a phone news conference Wednesday that he hopes current stars would be able to remain - although that's less likely with a Republican administration.

He's also hoping that Sheen, whose contract is up this year, decides to come back for another season and maybe for post-presidency appearances.

Before the NBC show wades into the heat of primary contests and before Bartlet gives up power, there are lingering issues to resolve.

At the end of last season, growing violence in the Middle East led to the death of prominent U.S. officials and left an angry Bartlet weighing military action - and now trying to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

The Gaza Strip attack also critically injured White House staff member Donna Moss (Janel Moloney), who was part of the American contingent.

Whether Donna survives (and whether she and her boss, deputy chief of staff Josh Lyman, finally become an item) are obvious cliffhangers. Wells promises other immediate upheaval in "The West Wing."

"There are substantial changes in the White House at the beginning of the season, within the first two episodes," Wells said.

Involving the White House staff that viewers know and love? "In the staff that we know and love, things are happening," Wells says, with vague discretion that would make a bureaucrat proud.

After the dust settles, the latter part of the season will focus on the campaign trail with Smits' and Alda's characters and on how Bartlet delivers his swan - or lame-duck - song.

"How does the Bartlet administration deal with the remaining time they have in trying to be effective?" Wells said. "What does he really want to accomplish in his remaining year in office?"

Writers for the series, which makes a point of drawing on real-world Washington expertise, asked former Reagan and Clinton administration figures to reminisce about their second-term experiences.

Politicos returning as advisers for the season include former Clinton press secretary Dee Dee Myers and Laurence O'Donnell, who worked for the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

Two newcomers are former Clinton economic adviser Gene Sperling and Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein.

They're all crucial to the series, Wells said.

"The most important thing about writing the show, as far as political issues go, is having arguments. We have to have people in the room to argue both points - and they do," he said. "It's a load of fun. It's actually my favorite part (of creating the show): You get to sit there and listen to these people harangue each other."

Will the series be affected by the outcome of November's President Bush-Sen. Kerry election?

"I would say a lot of that depends on how the election itself goes," Wells said. "If its as close or contested as the last election, that may have an impact."

For some viewers, he speculated, the desired goal is fantasy rather than reality.

"I think we have a number of viewers who showed up after (the 2000) election because they felt that who they wanted in office wasn't there, so they came to see what Bartlet did."

This is the first season "The West Wing" has returned without a best-drama Emmy in hand. After four consecutive wins, the award went to HBO's "The Sopranos."

Wells said he was pleased with the outcome. The mob drama was overdue for a win, he said, and "The West Wing" can proceed without the question of whether it or any show is worthy of so many laurels.

Some critics argue the political drama fell short of the dramatic heights reached when Sorkin was on board, through the end of the 2002-03 season.

Wells largely disagrees but acknowledges the challenge of shifting from a show written by the prolific Sorkin to one relying on a new staff of writers.

"We had the experience of changing drivers in a race car in the middle of the track doing 200 mph. ... It was as difficult a thing as I have ever been involved in creatively," he said, adding: "A lot of the shows we were very proud of."

Reality TV still breathes:

Peacock will play a 'Hoax'
By JOSEF ADALIAN, Variety.com Thurs., Oct. 14, 2004, 10:00pm PT

NBC and Ben Silverman are about to attempt "The $25 Million Hoax."
The Peacock Network has quietly wrapped production on "Hoax," a top-secret three-episode reality skein in which one person has to convince her family and friends that she's won a $25 million lotto.
"Hoax," which is based on Maverick Television's Sky TV format "Million Pound Hoax," could air as soon as next month. An NBC rep declined comment on "Hoax."
As in the U.K. show, producers pick one person and give him or her the assignment of fooling loved ones into thinking they've become filthy rich via a lottery -- even though they haven't won a thing. Cameras then tag along to document the new lottery "winners" as they begin to make plans to spend the money they don't have.

Thursday ratings posted

From mediabistro.com/tvnewser:

From an anonymous e-mailer: "Lou Dobbs has called a staff meeting for noon today for his show's entire staff. Could this be an announcement of a timeslot move?" Can anyone confirm this?...
Stephen Battaglio of TV Guide.com cites the New York Daily News report that Dobbs may move to primetime, and says: "You've got to believe that the shift will happen sooner rather than later to capitalize on any possible viewer fallout O'Reilly may face from the story."

The TVGuide.com:

The Scandal Factor: Can Bill O'Reilly Survive Sexgate?

Bill O'Reilly was on the offensive Thursday as the news of a sexual harassment suit filed against him was splashed across newspapers and TV shows.

He filed a countersuit calling the former employee's charges a shakedown attempt. He bravely went ahead with a scheduled appearance on Live with Regis & Kelly and said it was "the worst day of his life."

But will his sponsors play defense?

It's too soon to tell, but that's the big question that lies ahead. Even if things go his way in court, his image has been singed in the short run by a tawdry personal story. Not good for a guy who has scored big ratings by condemning the moral flaws of others.

Advertisers many of them blue-chip companies pay as much as $22 per thousand adult viewers for a 30-second spot on The O'Reilly Factor. When you're drawing as many as 3 million viewers each weeknight, that adds up.

Will those advertisers leave the show when O'Reilly becomes the subject of vibrator jokes in Jay Leno and David Letterman's monologues?

"It's a tricky situation," says Brad Adgate of Horizon Media. "Something like that is always possible. Certain advertisers have different thresholds for that kind of thing than others."

One thing O'Reilly has going for him is a loyal viewer following. "It doesn't hurt him," Adgate says, adding, "We'll see how loyal [his audience] is."

Competitors will be watching as well. Lou Dobbs told the New York Daily News on Thursday that CNN is considering moving his show from 6 pm/ET to 8 pm/ET, putting it head-to-head with The O'Reilly Factor. For the last couple of years, Dobbs has reinvented his business-news show into a Factor-like mix of interviews and commentary.

You've got to believe that the shift will happen sooner rather than later to capitalize on any possible viewer fallout O'Reilly may face from the story.

But O'Reilly has a pretty lofty perch to fall from. He has the highest-rated show on any cable news channel by a wide margin. It's the tent pole for the rest of Fox News Channel's high-rated lineup. Before O'Reilly emerged, viewers only tuned in to cable news to watch well, the news.

"He invented appointment viewing for news personalities," says Adgate, a former CNN employee. "What he did was create news and high ratings when it was a slow news night. And most news nights are slower than others."

A Fox News spokeswoman did not return our call Thursday.

TV AUDIENCES DECIDE REALITY BITES
By HOLLY M. SANDERS, New York Post

October 15, 2004 -- Tired of swapping wives, eating cockroaches and getting fired? So, apparently, is the rest of America.

A fall season with a glut of reality shows has led to several cancellations, weak entrants and more disturbing for network executives declines for established programs, according to Steve Sternberg, executive vice president and director of audience analysis at Magna Global USA.

NBC's "The Apprentice," the megahit featuring real-estate magnate Donald Trump, has witnessed a decline in ratings in its second season, along with returning shows "The Bachelor" and "Fear Factor."

"The danger in relying too much on reality shows, unlike scripted series, is you never know when it's going to suddenly decline," Sternberg wrote in a new report.

The fall prime-time season is packed with more reality shows than ever, with 10 more hours of un- scripted programming compared with last year, according to Sternberg's analysis.

And, for the first time, the major broadcast networks devoted fewer hours to comedies, dramas and other scripted programs.

At the same time, though, several new scripted shows are actually among the most-watched shows on TV for the first time in years.

Newcomers to the reality genre including the "The Benefactor," "The Complex: Malibu," and "Renovate My Family" have failed to catch on with audiences.

Meanwhile, ABC has two bona fide scripted hits on its hands with campy melodrama "Desperate Housewives" and "Lost," about a group of airline travelers stranded on a desert island.

And CBS has continued to build on its successful CSI franchise with the debut of "CSI: NY."

From the New York Times:

SPORTS MEDIA AND BUSINESS
NBC Sports Considering a Return to the N.F.L.
By RICHARD SANDOMIR October 15, 2004

Does NBC have a yen to carry the National Football League again?

In 1998, it got out of televising N.F.L. games, having refused to outbid CBS for the American Football Conference package and ABC for "Monday Night Football." Ever since, NBC has carried the XFL and the Arena Football League.

Pat Bowlen, the Denver Broncos' owner and the chairman of the N.F.L.'s broadcasting committee, said NBC was considering a return.

Has he talked to NBC?

"Yes," said Bowlen, who said he had talked to Dick Ebersol, the chairman of NBC Universal Sports.

Is NBC interested?

"Yes," Bowlen said.

But how would he and the league coax NBC to enter what could be the type of money-losing deal it had vowed never to revisit? The price of entry for each network - now $550 million annually - will not tumble in the next deal, which will start after next season.

"I don't have to convince them," Bowlen said Wednesday from Denver. "Either they get in the game or not."

Kevin Sullivan, a spokesman for NBC Universal Sports, said, "If there's a good deal to be made, we're always interested."

Bowlen said that the urgency to make a new deal in the coming months had lessened, which dovetailed with ABC and ESPN's desire not to negotiate until after this season (which may give them time to study whether ABC will keep money-losing "Monday Night" or let ESPN take it).

CBS and Fox would not mind renewing their deals sooner, at modest annual price increases. So far this season, only Fox's ratings are up, by 3 percent. The others have fallen: CBS's by 8 percent, ABC's by 3 percent and ESPN's by 5 percent.

Assuming that NBC carries Nascar past 2006, it would not chase Sunday afternoon games, but could pursue the Sunday or Monday night packages. But for its USA network corporate sibling, NBC could seek a package of eight prime-time Thursday and Saturday night games that would start on Thanksgiving. Other cable networks like TNT could also covet that deal.

"There's going to be money in that package," Bowlen said, "and there seems to be interest."

If the N.F.L. can sell a cable network on a Thursday-Saturday deal, it would be found money, perhaps $200 million or $300 million annually.

But Bowlen said the league would have to surmount a major obstacle to play on six Thursday nights, which would create a short week for players. "Thursday games are hard to play, especially if you're a visiting team," he said.

One option to carry the six Thursday games and two Saturday games would be the NFL Network. "Judging by how well it's done in 11 months, we have to look at it as a viable medium that we could put games on," Bowlen said.

But he did not say what would have to occur to put games on the N.F.L.'s in-house channel in the next contract.

"We don't have to be on a fast track to put games on our network," Bowlen said. "But that would make it more successful. We're patient. We're delighted with where it is."

Is Jennings also 'Jeopardy's' curse?
When he goes, expect ratings to take a tumble
By Diego Vasquez. Medialife.com
Without a doubt, the good thing for Jeopardy over the recent months has been Ken Jennings and his remarkable winning streak. As of Wednesday, his tally was at 56 wins and more than $1.9 million in earnings.
But one not-so-good thing about Jennings is that some time in the coming weeks he's going to lose. That will end the syndicated game show's longest-ever winning streak by a contestant.
It will also almost assuredly end a ratings streak that has boosted "Jeopardy" to the No. 1 show in syndication, ahead of both "Wheel of Fortune" and "Oprah" from its traditional No. 3 post.
The near-certainty of that tumble became clear when the show's "Tournament of Champions" aired over recent weeks. Jennings, who had returned to the show with the new season, stepped aside for the annual matchup of the year's top contestants, and the show's ratings promptly tumbled, falling nearly two full rating points.
Jennings's winning streak gave the show almost no bounce. The first two weeks of the new season of Jeopardy averaged an 8.5 household rating and finished No. 1 in each of those two weeks.
The following two weeks, Jeopardy aired the Tournament of Champions, where the previous year's top players are invited back to determine the best of the best. Since his streak is still alive, Jennings was not eligible (though he will be next year, assuming he really does lose by then).
In its first week, the week ended Sept. 26, Jeopardy's Tournament of Champions averaged a 7.1 household rating, down 16 percent compared with the previous week.
The next week, ending Oct.3, and the last week for which national syndication ratings are currently available, the show slipped another 3 percent to a 6.9 average rating.
Not disastrous by any means, as the show still finished No. 3 in syndication during both of those weeks (behind Wheel of Fortune and Oprah), but a testament to the ratings draw Jennings truly is.
When will "Jeopardy's" ratings streak end? The best guess is sometime in November, when Jennings blows a key final question and ends his winning streak, or so it's been reported.
Should the show's ratings tumble, it will still be one of the most successful shows in syndication, at its old ranking of No. 3. But its chance of climbing to No. 1 again could be well off, until it finds its next Ken Jennings.
Syndication people expect Jeopardy to return to its normal level in terms of ratings once Jennings' streak is done, but acknowledge the move to change the five-win rule as wildly successful. (Before last season, five-time winners were given a car and qualified for the Tournament of Champions, but weren't allowed to continue their winning streaks.)
They created the conditions under which a Jeopardy' star like Ken Jennings could have a run like that, says one ratings analyst. It was a masterstroke.

ESPN Shocker: Kiper Gone.

By ANDREW MARCHAND , New York Post.com
October 15, 2004 -- Mel Kiper Jr. is off ESPN's draft board, NYP TV Sports has learned. After a 22-year run as ESPN's NFL draft expert, Kiper is being let go by the network.
"ESPN will not be renewing Mel Kiper's contract," Mark Shapiro, the network's executive vice president, confirmed.
"He would not agree to extend the standard non-monetary contract provisions of his current deal.''
ESPN would not elaborate.
Reached yesterday, Kiper, 44, was unaware of ESPN's final decision.
"You are telling me something ESPN hasn't told me," said Kiper, whose last contract expired Oct. 1. "There was some language that we were not agreeable to. As far as I was concerned, negotiations were ongoing.''
Kiper agreed that money was not an issue. He acknowledged that the language of the contract was the problem, but wouldn't go into great detail. Pressed for an example, he did say he wanted to know a specific number of SportsCenters he would be required to do.

From medialife.com

NBC's other hurts: 18-34s and 25-54s
Slips behind CBS and ABC in the new season

By Toni Fitzgerald, staff writer, Medialife.com
Through the first three weeks of the season, all the buzz has been about the power shift among adult 18-49 viewers: NBC's falling fortunes, ABC's rising star and CBS's new leadership.
But just as startling has been NBC's falloff among two other demographics: 18-34s and 25-54s.
Last year at this time, NBC was the easy leader among both. This year it has dipped more than 15 percent in each demo.
CBS and ABC, meanwhile, have both made gains, meaning there's not just a new leader among 18-49s, there are new leaders among 18-34s and 25-54s, too.
The question now is whether NBC can come back.
Three weeks seems a little early to be making dire predictions for the rest of the year. After all, last season NBC seemed cooked until The Apprentice lifted its fortunes in January.
But there's very little cheer on the horizon for NBC that would predict an upturn in numbers as the season rolls out. It bumped what it considered its big-hope reality show, The Contender, to next year after Fox's disastrous and similarly themed boxing show Next Great Champ bombed.
Meanwhile, its new series, hammered by reviewers, are failing to improve ratings for their time slots against last season at this point. And its only returning show yet to debut is The West Wing, and that has been in a downward ratings spiral for two years.
At the same time, ABC and CBS have both improved their delivery in every demo on Wednesday nights, Thursday nights (CBS) and Sunday nights (ABC).
That will be a steep hole for NBC to crawl out of. Even a November sweeps victory in any of those demos looks doubtful at this point.
CBS taking the lead in 25-54s was perhaps predictable after strong February and May sweeps in that demo. But ABC's surge among 18-34s was nowhere near as expected.
According to Nielsen data analyzed by Magna Global U.S.A., NBC and ABC are now tied for No. 1 through three weeks of the season with a 3.3 average among 18-34s. NBC is down 0.6 from this point last season, when it was competing with Fox (down 1.1 this season to a dismal 2.4) for the lead.
ABC is up 0.2, one of four major demographics (also including 12-34s, 18-49s and 25-54s) in which it has increased this season. CBS, too, has recorded a major uptick, going from a 2.5 last season to a 2.9 this year.
Among 25-54s CBS's 0.3 increase to a 5.1 average rating has put it well ahead of NBC, down 0.8 to a 4.4. ABC has actually crept ahead of NBC there as well, averaging a 4.5 (up 0.2).
Fox has also lost the most ground here, going from a 4.0 last season to a 2.7, though once again the network has premiered very few of its shows in deference to postseason baseball.
The presidential and vice presidential debates, which preempted regular programming on all four of the networks at least twice (Fox showed baseball during two of them) and aren't particularly popular among 18-34s, also knocked down averages somewhat for the season.
UPN and the WB are essentially static in the two demos, with the WB still leading UPN in both.

From Variety.com:

'LAX' takes off, 'Hawaii' goes on vacation

By JOSEF ADALIAN, Variety.com
NBC is saying "aloha" to "Hawaii" for the November sweeps and putting "LAX" in a new Wednesday terminal.
As part of a pre-sweeps rejiggering, Peacock plans to air Heather Locklear starrer "LAX" Wednesdays at 8 p.m. during November, replacing the low-rated "Hawaii." Latter sudser will remain in production at least until its 13-episode order is complete; no word yet on a back nine (episodes), though that seems a longshot given its ratings so far.
After a fast start, "LAX" has also slipped in the ratings, losing a big chunk of its "Las Vegas" lead-in. But the NBC brass hope it might be able to find its audience in the 8 p.m. Wednesday slot, where expectations are a bit lower.
Replacing "LAX" Mondays at 10 p.m. will be "The $25 Million Hoax," a new reality skein in which a fake lotto winner has to convince her friends and family that she's won a huge cash prize.

From this coming Sunday's Washington Post:

Crime and Replenishment: Why Wednesdays Have Been Murder
By Lisa de Moraes washingtonpost.com
Sunday, October 17, 2004; Page N09
Wonder why, four weeks into the new TV season, there are almost as many reruns on Wednesday night as on Saturday -- a night on which all of the networks have formally given up on original scripted programming?
When NBC unveiled its new prime-time lineup to advertisers at Radio City Music Hall last May, it promised advertisers it would keep "The West Wing" in the Wednesday 9 p.m. time slot. A couple days later, when CBS trotted out its new prime-time slate at Carnegie Hall, it announced that its 9 p.m. Wednesday hour would consist of two comedies, "King of Queens" and the new "Center of the Universe," marking John Goodman's much-ballyhooed return to sitcoms.
Yet since the official start of the TV season on Sept. 20, NBC has been airing "Law & Order" reruns at 9 p.m. Wednesdays -- except the first Wednesday of the season, when it aired back-to-back original "Law & Orders" from 9 to 11 p.m. Meanwhile, CBS changed course, plugging the hole with a "Dr. Phil" special during premiere week, and more recently with reruns of some "CSI" or another. Both networks vow that starting this week, they'll bring us the Wednesday 9 o'clock shows they promised.
The two networks' 9 p.m. series are the victims of the two networks' 10 p.m. series. CBS is trying to take down NBC's venerable "Law & Order" with the latest clone of its procedural crime drama factory, "CSI."
Naturally, each network wants to give its 10 p.m. show the biggest possible lead-in audience. NBC felt that would be better accomplished at 9 p.m. with "Law & Order," even in repeats, than with original episodes of "The West Wing." This is reasonable, given that last season, while "The West Wing" was not as bad as some critics had anticipated without Aaron Sorkin at the helm, it was a ratings sinkhole. Meanwhile, CBS's new "Center of the Universe" is just plain bad, the network has had trouble launching a comedy block on Wednesday night, and we've seen that followers of "CSI" flock to reruns in large numbers.
Meanwhile, Fox has been airing "Bernie Mac" reruns on Wednesday nights at 9:30 since the start of the TV season. That's because the network debuted "Method & Red," which was supposed to air in that half-hour, back in the summer and had canceled it by the time the season officially started in September. Clearly, Fox has some work to do on its new, groundbreaking 52-week-a-year schedule.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...nguage=printer

Michael Moore's Pre-Election TV Special Nixed
By DAVID BAUDER, Associated Press Writer Oct 15, 7:18 PM (ET)

NEW YORK (AP) - The cable pay-per-view company iN DEMAND has backed away from a plan to show a three-hour election eve special with filmmaker Michael Moore that included the first television showing of his documentary "Fahrenheit 9/11."

The company said Friday it would not air "The Michael Moore Pre-Election Special" due to "legitimate business and legal concerns." A spokesman would not elaborate.

Moore has just released his movie on DVD and was seeking a TV outlet for the film, which sharply criticizes President Bush, as close to the election as possible.

Earlier this week, trade publications said Moore was close to a deal with iN DEMAND for the special, which would also include interviews with politically-active celebrities and admonitions to vote. The Nov. 1 special was to be available for $9.95.

Moore was not immediately available for comment, a spokeswoman said.

The New York-based iN DEMAND, owned by the Time Warner, Cox and Comcast cable companies, makes pay-per-view programming available in 28 million homes, or about one-quarter of the nation's homes with television.

In a statement, iNDEMAND said "we regret that our decision has led Michael Moore to consider legal action against us," which it said would be "entirely baseless and groundless." The company did not say what legal action Moore was considering.

This spring, Moore did battle with the Walt Disney Co., which refused to release "Fahrenheit 9/11" through its Miramax Films because it was too politically partisan for the company's taste.

After that fight became public, Moore found other distributors. The movie, which attacks Bush's handling of the war on terrorists and war in Iraq and the Bush family's ties to Saudi royalty, earned more than $100 million at the box office.

In an interview with a Maine television station that aired this week, former President George H.W. Bush called Moore a "slimeball" and an expletive.