|Originally posted by davegust
That's a big if. I think FED has the momentum as the replacement for plasma. Existing manufacturers may be hesitant to invest in improvements to PDP facilities since a shrinking projected market share will curtail profits. I haven't done the research, but the tea leaves would be the current capital spending by existing and new plasma panel manufacturers. Does anyone have that info? How about for large LCD panel manufacturers?
Just like in software, hardware "vaporware" can be a significant driver in market changes.
Some industry blurbs that show where PDP-LCD manufacturers are headed during the next couple of years:
"Sharp and Matsushita have announced expansion plans to ramp up production of LCD and plasma. However, it's not inconceivable that the plasma and LCD markets would wind up dominated by Taiwanese/Chinese and Korean manufacturers at the expense of the Japanese â€” that is, unless companies such as Matsushita, Sharp, NEC, and Hitachi decide to move a lot of their manufacturing offshore and reduce labor costs."
"The biggest news was all about price. If you are in the flat screen TV game, you must think youâ€™re on a roller coaster ride â€“ one thatâ€™s all downhill! For the past few years, the Korean companies led by Samsung and LG pushed and pulled their way to better market share with unceasing price slashing.
Now, the â€˜big 3â€™ Chinese manufacturers (Chi Mei Optoelectronics, AU Optoelectronics, Chunghwa Picture Tube) are pulling the same trick, flooding the market with LCD and plasma product while driving down prices and margins for everyone."
"The pursuit of the TV-set market by PDP-LCD makers is creating the largest expansion in PDP-LCD capacity in the history of the industry. Between 2004 and 2005, the total area of PDP-LCD production capacity will increase at a compounded rate of 13 percent per quarter, for a year-on-year increase of 61 percent."
"The current ramp-up in production began at the end of 2003, when Samsung, Chi Mei Optoelectronics and Quanta Display began production at their new fifth-generation fabs. By the end of 2003, these companies were operating a total of seven fifth-generation lines. In the first quarter of 2004, AU Optronics launched its second fifth-generation line, and Sharp commenced production at the first sixth-generation line. In all, the industry will see eight fabs debut in 2004, including L.G.Philips LCD's sixth-generation fab and the fifth-generation lines of CPT, Hannstar, Innolux and SVA/NEC, China's first fifth-generation fab. This expansion comes despite the fact that the cost of state-of-the-art PDP-LCD fabs is approaching $2 billion"
"By the end of 2005, there could be as many as six sixth-generation plants in operation, all geared to PDP-LCD TV panel production. Close on the heels of this wave is the next; the ramp-up in seventh-generation fabs will start with a joint venture of Samsung and Sony in South Korea next year, and there could be two to four seventh-generation fabs operating in Taiwan by the end of 2005."