|Originally posted by Dean Roddey
I don't even see that as an issue. How many people of the sort remotely likely to buy into HD discs any time soon don't already have a DVD player? And, if they don't, how much does one cost? It's just not a real factor, IMHO, among the poeple who will drive the initial acceptance of an HD disc format.
I see it from the opposite side of the equation.
I imagine when VHS started to die, there was a lot of unsold VHS tapes from the various distributors left in stock, and they had to eat the cost of not only making, but destroying the stock that will never be sold. (Probably one of the reasons why they're undershipping DVHS tapes now.) The same will be true of DVD unless the distributors start to transition to the new formats by creating dual-definition (HD/SD) disks. I predict that all brand-new releases from the major studios will be dual definition in the fall of 2005 -- so the distributors don't have to make multiple versions of the same program, and be forced to destroy the DVD versions after the shift to HD is complete.
So if the only way to buy Star Wars Ep. 3 on DVD will be to buy it on dual-definition DVD, then they will sell a lot of Hi-Def DVDs. (The consumers won't initially use the HD part, but the marketing will be filled with words like, "Will never be obsolete!" or, "Will work on your future HD system!")
It's possible that MGM and Sony Pictures will release only on Blu-Ray. It also seems likely that Universal and the other HD-DVD signers on will release only in HD-DVD. Disney and Fox seem to have left the option open to release on both HD formats...
So if you, the average consumer, have been buying a bunch of new releases in dual-definition and watching them on your regular DVD player, when the time comes to buy a HD deck, wouldn't the number of HD disks you already have in your collection be a big factor to determine which kind of deck you're going to buy?
That's where I really think this fight is going to be won or lost.